In the space of a week, the Trump administration's tariff policies set off a stock market downturn and spurred expectations of a recession before the President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, sending markets soaring upwards again. With recent reports on the apartment market showing record levels of demand in Q1 of 2025 along with a reduction in apartment supply, there's some reason to expect stronger performance in 2025 should the economy maintain its footing.Sources discussed in this episode:Berkadia: “Liberation Day Volatility” - https://berkadia.com/blog/liberation-day-volatility/Bisnow: “Trump's Tariffs Unleash Market Turmoil, Fresh Pricing Fears And Worry About Frozen Deals” - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/commercial-real-estate/trump-tariffs-unleash-market-chaos-price-spike-fears-128794GlobeSt: “This Expert Thinks CRE Will Be a Safe Harbor Amid Tariff Turmoil” - https://www.globest.com/2025/04/08/this-expert-thinks-cre-will-be-a-safe-harbor-amid-tariff-turmoil/ RealPage: “Healthy 1st Quarter Demand Boosts Rent Growth as Supply Ebbs” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/1q-2025-data-update/ Yardi Matrix: “National Multifamily Report, March 2025: Multifamily Shows Positive Signs Amidst Economic Uncertainty” - https://www.yardimatrix.com/publications/download/file/7082-MatrixMultifamilyNationalReport-March2025 HousingWire: “How quickly does financial turmoil impact the housing market?” - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/how-quickly-does-financial-turmoil-impact-the-housing-market/ Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Recent apartment performance suggests that 2025 rent growth is continuing the lower-than-average trends from 2024, but given the slowdown in apartment construction and the anticipated drop in new multifamily supply in 2026, owners and investors with a long-term strategy could see some significant opportunities emerge in this transitionary period.Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Data on multifamily loan delinquencies and special servicing shows a slow buildup throughout 2024 that could lead to greater distress in 2025, which is particularly relevant given the challenges expected for multifamily operations with apartment supply still elevated and economic uncertainty putting downward pressure on rent growth. better prospects moving forward which could create investment opportunities as the year progresses.Sources discussed in this episode:Fannie Mae: “What's Driving the Increasing Importance Consumers Place on Their Homes” - https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/increasing-importance-consumers-place-homesMarcus & Millichap: “The Forces Driving Long-Term Rental Housing Demand” - https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/videos/the-forces-driving-long-term-rental-housing-demandYardi Matrix: “National Affordable Housing Report, March 2025” - https://www.yardimatrix.com/publications/download/File/6939-MatrixResearchBulletin-AffordableHousingReport-March2025Moody’s Analytics: “Q4 2024 Housing Affordability Update” - https://www.moodyscre.com/insights/cre-trends/q4-2024-housing-affordability-update/CRED iQ: “Multifamily Distress Volumes Hits 12-Year High” - https://cred-iq.com/blog/2025/02/27/multifamily-distress-volumes-hits-12-year-high/CRED iQ: “Top 50 Markets by CRED iQ Distress Metrics” - https://cred-iq.com/blog/2025/03/20/top-50-markets-by-cred-iq-distress-metrics-3/Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

New data on investor sentiment shows optimism in the multifamily market, but given the lag between fast-moving economic developments and the Jan.-Feb. time period when the data was gathered, some of this investor enthusiasm may be blunted in light of the recent volatility. That being said, strong fundamentals and improving long-term rent growth trends have been consistent in the multifamily market, and as short-term revenue difficulties intersect with looming loan maturities, investors will be looking for opportunities to invest in distressed assets in 2025.Sources discussed in this episode:RealPage: “Modest Momentum Builds in February Rent Growth, Occupancy Readings” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/february-2025-data-update/Yardi Matrix: Feb. 2025 National Multifamily Report: “Multifamily Market Set to be Tested” - https://www.yardimatrix.com/publications/download/file/6945-MatrixMultifamilyNationalReport-February2025 Redfin: “U.S. Asking Rents Rose 0.4% in February—A Small Increase, But the First in 6 Months” - https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-february-2025/ Bisnow: “'Pure Chaos': Inside The CRE Fallout From DOGE's Slash And Burn Campaign” - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/office/doge-gsa-lease-termination-cancellation-impact-brokers-owners-128504 Urban Institute: "The Implications of Shrinking the Federal Workforce by DOGE’s Recommended 75 Percent" - https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/implications-shrinking-federal-workforce-doges-recommended-75-percentMarcus & Millichap: “High-Speed Cycles Require Long-Term Thinking” - https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/videos/high-speed-cycles-require-long-term-thinking CRE Daily, John Burns Research and Consulting: “Fear and Greed Survey, Q1 2025, ” - https://cdn.credaily.com/uploads/2025/03/Burns-CRE-Daily_Fear-and-Greed-Index-Chartbook_2025-03-with-ad.pdf Berkadia: “Investor Confidence in Multifamily Sector Remains Strong for 2025, Despite Economic Challenges” - https://berkadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-Multifamily-Investor-Sentiment-Survey.pdf Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

In this webinar replay, Spencer Gray and Matt Bastnagel of Gray Capital discuss key trends for housing demand and construction activity, growing apartment investment activity, and the increasing multifamily investment opportunities in 2025.Download the full report at graycapitalllc.com/windowDISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

The multifamily market looks forward to strengthening fundamentals in 2025 as the apartment supply wave recedes while housing demand remains consistently high. Recent tariffs may not change these dynamics in the near-term, but higher materials and construction costs could move the market from a supply wave into a supply shortage, bringing rent growth much closer to historical averages after ~18 months of below-average rent growth.

Sources discussed in this episode:

New York Times: “Tariffs in Trumps second term in office” Updates: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/04/us/tariffs-us-canada-mexico-china

Bisnow: "25% Tariffs On Mexico, Canada Begin, Complicating CRE Outlook”: https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/commercial-real-estate/trump-to-implement-25-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-128313

US News and World Reports: “How Will Trump's Tariffs Affect Homebuyers?” - https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/how-will-trumps-tariffs-affect-homebuyers

Apartment List: National Apartment Report, Feb. 2025 (1st monthly apartment market report that we’ve covered in a while): https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data

Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠

Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠

DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This podcast is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

As multifamily starts continue to decline (far more than single family home starts) and both housing demand in general and apartment demand specifically show consistent strength, the case for multifamily asset strength continues to improve. Despite a recent decrease in 10-year treasury yields, elevated interest rates continue to inject a level of uncertainty into the market, but this same uncertainty will lead to some significant investment opportunities, with institutional investors like Apollo showing clear confidence in the multifamily market in their recent $1.5 billion acquisition of Bridge Investment. Sources discussed in this episode: John Burns Research and Consulting: “Multifamily market outlook: 10 insights from the NMHC Annual Meeting” - https://jbrec.com/insights/future-of-real-estate-multifamily-trends-from-annual-national-multifamily-housing-council-nh The Wall Street Journal: “We’re Headed Toward a Landlord-Friendly Era. Expect Higher Rent Prices.” - https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/rent-price-increase-landlord-friendly-market-8ec25de5 Bisnow: “REPORT: HUD To Ax Half Of Its Workers, Launch Task Force To Study More Cuts” - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/top-talent/report-hud-to-axe-half-of-its-workers-128053 Learn about Gray Capital's latest multifamily deal for accredited investors: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/walcott/ Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/window/⁠ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Apartment fundamentals continue to improve, with multiple data sources sharing a broad consensus of improving demand. Additionally, recent reports project a considerable drop-off in newly-delivered apartments in 2025 and continuing into 2026. As this steady, elevated apartment demand meets a shrinking amount of new supply, we could see noticeably higher rent growth in 2025 and 2026.

Sources discussed in this episode:

Bisnow: “REPORT: HUD To Ax Half Of Its Workers, Launch Task Force To Study More Cuts” - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/top-talent/report-hud-to-axe-half-of-its-workers-128053

The Wall Street Journal: “We’re Headed Toward a Landlord-Friendly Era. Expect Higher Rent Prices.” - https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/rent-price-increase-landlord-friendly-market-8ec25de5

Newmark: “United States Multifamily Capital Markets Report” - https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-report/united-states-multifamily-capital-markets-report

Learn about Gray Capital's latest multifamily deal for accredited investors: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/walcott/Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/report/⁠Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Learn about Gray Capital's latest multifamily deal for accredited investors: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/walcott/Download

Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/report/⁠

Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠

DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Investor sentiment in the multifamily market has settled into much the same place that it was at the start of 2024, but crucial improvements in multifamily fundamentals have driven more interest in multifamily investment in 2025, despite the added weight of higher-for-longer interest rates.

Sources discussed in this episode:

NMHC: “Survey of Quarterly Apartment Conditions” -https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/quarterly-survey/2025/nmhc-quarterly-survey-of-apartment-conditions-january-2025/

Trepp: “Office & Multifamily Loans Drove CMBS Delinquencies Higher in 2024” -https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/office-multifamily-loans-drive-cmbs-delinquencies-higher-in-2024& page 14 ofhttps://www.trepp.com/hubfs/The%20Year%20End%202024.pdf?hsCtaTracking=857fcec0-e018-4417-8a99-ddd9ab61552a%7C717682e1-077f-47bf-9226-e6c614ac4465

Freddie Mac: “Positive Outlook for Housing and the Economy in 2025” -https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20250124-us-economy-grew-stronger-pace

Marcus & Millichap: “Will CRE Investors Adapt to Higher Rates?” -https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/videos/will-cre-investors-adapt-to-higher-rates & “Is Multifamily Poised for a Market Rebound in 2025?” -https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/videos/is-multifamily-poised-for-a-market-rebound-in-2025

GlobeSt: “CRE Deal Volume Rebounds as Price Declines Stabilize” -https://www.globest.com/2025/02/03/cre-deal-volume-rises-and-price-declines-slow/

Learn about Gray Capital's latest multifamily deal for accredited investors:https://www.graycapitalllc.com/walcott/

Download Gray Capital's latest report:⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/report/⁠

Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠

DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.