The Rate Guy

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields

Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump’s biggest obstacle. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.

We're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down.

Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what’s the Fed's next move?

Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed.

To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November. 

FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next.

Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting.

Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion

Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.

This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:

• Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts
• Rate Cuts Faster than Expected
• Whether Rate Cuts are too Late
• Labor Market Weakness
• Risk of Recurring Inflation
• Hedging Against Falling Rates

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed.

Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed’s decision-making.

We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker’s analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen. 

Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs. 

Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.