The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Today's Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in reality it is not. Nate traces how money functions as a claim on physical work, not a substitute for it, and how the financial scaffolding that made shale oil viable depends on cheap capital that may not last. He connects this directly to what he calls energy blindness: the absence of biophysical reality from mainstream economic and political analysis.

Nate also draws a direct line between the energy crisis and the ecological crisis, framing them as two faces of the same predicament. The carbon pulse created both the unfolding ecological damage from burning too many fossil fuels, and the depletion crisis from drawing them down too fast. He outlines how forests, wildlife, and food systems all face increasing risk from both climate disruption and human desperation, and how geopolitical alliances are fracturing along lines of energy access rather than ideology. The episode closes with Nate's framing of the Great Simplification not as collapse, but as a potential reorientation, as well as an invitation to consider what actually produces human wellbeing: connection, purpose, community, and service. These are satisfactions that predate the carbon pulse, and do not require a barrel of oil.

What does it mean to build a civilization on a one-time energy inheritance, and then plan as though it will last? How might individuals and societies begin to reorient around what actually matters, before external circumstances force the issue? And as the carbon pulse peaks, who do we want to be on the way down?

(Recorded March 31st, 2025)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

This week's Frankly is the second in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This installment explores how modern society has been built on the assumption of cheap and abundant energy, and what happens when that assumption breaks down. Nate describes the ways our built systems, including food production, water treatment, manufacturing, and global trade, are calibrated to cheap energy inputs, and how processes that look economically efficient are often deeply inefficient in physical terms. He walks through the staggering degree to which the modern food system runs on fossil hydrocarbons, noting that roughly ten calories of fossil energy now go into every calorie of food on the plate, and that the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic fertilizer is what allows the planet to feed roughly half of its current population.

Nate then traces the accelerating depletion of conventional oil fields and the turn towards shale, which behaves as a fundamentally different resource than the conventional wells it has been masking. He considers the alternatives often proposed as replacements, highlighting why energy quality matters as much as energy quantity, and why solar and wind are better described as 'rebuildable' rather than 'renewable.' The episode closes with Jevons paradox and the historical pattern that humans have never actually transitioned off an energy source, only ever adding new ones on top of the old.

Why can't we simply swap in alternative technologies for fossil hydrocarbons? What does the turn toward shale mean for systems built around cheap and stable energy inputs? And how might oil supply disruptions reshape the things you do, consume, and think about in your daily life?

(Recorded March 31st, 2026)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

This week's Frankly is the first in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This initial installment covers some foundational concepts of The Great Simplification platform, including what oil actually is, what it does for us, and why most of us never see any of it.

Nate begins by describing how oil formed from the compression of ancient marine phytoplankton over millions of years, framing it as a solar battery that took geological time to charge and that humans are draining in centuries. From there, he outlines the sheer amount of human labor that's contained within a single barrel of oil – around 5 years' worth – and scales this to a global level. Nate uses this framing to show how the explosion of population, wealth, and per-capita consumption over the last 150 years was underwritten by an invisible workforce of ancient sunlight. He closes with the metabolic reality that the average American consumes roughly 200,000 calories a day when heating, transport, food systems, and supply chains are considered and assesses why we have become so "energy blind" to it all.

If energy is the invisible labor force underlying every product and service in your life, does that change the way you see the economy? What would it mean to live, even briefly, at a metabolic rate closer to what your body actually requires? And if the work performed by a single barrel of oil is worth orders of magnitude more than its price, what does it say about the systems we have built on top of it?

(Recorded March 30, 2026)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Between global crises and personal problems, modern life is overflowing with things to worry about, including many issues that feel too big to even address. Yet, our ability to influence these problems and how much we worry about them are not equal to each other – and in fact, getting lost in thoughts of anxiety can reduce our ability to act. Given the direct line between individual inner states and civilizational dysfunction, what global change might be possible if we train ourselves to observe thought, rather than be unconsciously consumed and paralyzed by it?

In this episode, Nate is joined by philosopher and neuroscientist Sam Harris to explore how cultivating inner awareness could help us – both as individuals and a society – navigate civilizational crises. Sam argues that virtually all human suffering flows from one source: the mind's incessant, largely unnoticed identification with thought. Sam makes the case that, at scale, these distracted minds cumulate into people who are helplessly identified with their own inner worlds, their tribes, and their identity rather than able to hold a broader view. He offers a deep dive on the foundations of meditation, mindfulness, and awareness techniques as a way to help navigate our thoughts and remain grounded in the present. Ultimately, he suggests that in order to steer toward better futures, we might need to invest in cultivating both saner individuals and wiser systems in parallel.

Whether the threat is a cancer diagnosis or civilizational overshoot, the question is the same: how much suffering do you have to carry between now and the future? What if the inner work of moving through grief toward equanimity is actually a precondition for effective action? And if the most consequential decisions in human history are being made by people who have never once examined the nature of their own minds, how will their own mental states reflect onto the reality of our shared outcomes?

(Conversation recorded on February 18th, 2026)

About Sam Harris:

Sam Harris is the author of five New York Times best sellers. His books include The End of Faith, Letter to a Christian Nation, The Moral Landscape, Free Will, Lying, Waking Up, and Islam and the Future of Tolerance (with Maajid Nawaz). The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction. His writing and public lectures cover a wide range of topics – neuroscience, moral philosophy, religion, meditation practice, human violence, rationality – but generally focus on how a growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. He also hosts the Making Sense Podcast, which was selected by Apple as one of the "iTunes Best" and has won a Webby Award for best podcast in the Science & Education category.

Sam received a degree in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in neuroscience from UCLA. He has also practiced meditation for more than 30 years and has studied with many Tibetan, Indian, Burmese, and Western meditation teachers, both in the United States and abroad. Sam has created the Waking Up app for anyone who wants to learn to meditate in a modern, scientific context.

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

This week's Frankly is another in a recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where Nate poses questions about our shared future. Today he focuses on the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf, unpacking hidden implications that aren't covered by the headlines. Nate opens by examining how behind-the-scenes geopolitical decisions at the highest level create a widespread ripple effect – influencing everything from oil production to water desalination to fertilizer and food systems. He considers the risk of continued geopolitical conflict as global alliances shift, as well as the potential impact on the global economic order.

This week's main focus, however, is the deeper systemic change underway. Nate evaluates how energy access and shifting means of modern warfare could reshape the global power dynamics – he asks uncomfortable questions about the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons, the erosion of (inter)national trust, and what it even means to "win" in a global conflict in the first place. He then zooms out even further, describing a potential geographic bifurcation of the global economic Superorganism, where the East "decouples" from the Western financial and energy systems that have long been the backbone of the global order. Nate closes with a consideration of how future climate outcomes might be shaped by war-driven energy decisions today, as well as highlighting how individuals and communities might respond very differently than nations do in the face of energy disruption.

What hidden risks in energy and supply chains are still going unnoticed? How might shifting alliances and energy access redefine global power? And if the Hormuz situation is a 'dress rehearsal' of the future, where might individuals and societies consider changing their expectations and actions today?

(Recorded April 2nd, 2026)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

As the war in Iran creates chaos in every domain of life, the already-fragile energy systems of many countries find themselves on the brink of crisis after spending decades investing in natural gas infrastructure, largely supplied by Middle Eastern countries. With projected natural gas prices now spiking across the world, a growing number of nations are re-prioritizing energy security over energy convenience – calling into question the types of electricity generation needed for their citizens as they look to the coming decades. Could this lead to calls for a nuclear power revival in the West, and if so, would Western countries have the capacity to build such complex infrastructure?

In this episode, Nate welcomes back Dr. Chris Keefer, president of Canadians for Nuclear Energy and host of the Decouple podcast, for an impromptu exploration of the possible role of nuclear power for energy security amidst destabilizing supply chains and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Looking back to the energy shocks of the 1970s, Chris highlights how these disruptions reshaped electricity generation globally, including the rapid expansion of nuclear power for several countries, such as Europe, the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and Pakistan. But without the energetic, material, and civic availability of fifty years ago, Chris calls into question whether most free-market based countries would be able to coordinate and effectively respond in the same way today. Ultimately, both Chris and Nate highlight how energy security is reshaping every aspect of our lives as we are forced to adapt to a world of lower material throughput.

Why is nuclear power such a potent piece of energy infrastructure – resulting in cheap, abundant electricity when built correctly? How are the health impacts of nuclear power accidents misunderstood, and do the risks outweigh the benefits? And ultimately, does society today possess the political, financial, technological, and institutional capacity required to build and sustain large-scale nuclear systems?

About Chris Keefer:

Dr. Chris Keefer MD, CCFP-EM is the host of the Decouple podcast, where he explores the most pressing questions in energy, climate, environment, politics, and philosophy. Additionally, he is a practicing emergency physician in Toronto, a medical instructor, and a lifelong advocate for social and environmental causes. Chris is also the founder and president of the grassroots non-profit Canadians for Nuclear Energy, as well as the Director of Doctors for Nuclear Energy.

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

In this episode, Nate offers a personal reflection on the unfolding geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, beginning with an examination of how disruptions to fossil fuel flows propagate through the global economy, but with a time lag. He points out how many of the world's countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, as well as the potential impact on California's already high gas prices. Nate also contrasts the relative insulation of those in the United States with the far greater exposure of those living in Asia, Europe, and Africa, outlining how second- and third-order effects are already emerging in the form of conservation measures, rationing, and shifting daily behaviors.

Alongside this structural analysis, Nate turns to the lived experiences of people navigating changing conditions in real time. He shares stories from listeners on this platform, highlighting how proximity and awareness shape the ways in which individuals and communities respond to the more-than-human predicament. Nate concludes by outlining the biophysical phase shift that is quickly emerging, in which financial systems, material realities, and human expectations begin to diverge and require new forms of adaptation at all scales.

How might the impacts of current conflicts ripple into your own community, and on what timeline? Where might we shift our behaviors, mindsets, priorities, or attention to better respond as systemic changes continue to unfold? Have you considered time as one of our fastest-depleting resources?

(Recorded March 25th, 2025)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The conversation around artificial intelligence has been captured by two competing narratives – techno-abundance or civilizational collapse – both of which sidestep the question of who this technology is actually being built for. But if we consider that we are setting the initial conditions for everything that follows, we might realize that we are in a pivotal moment for AI development which demands a deeper cultural conversation about the type of future we actually want. What would it look like to design AI for the benefit of the 99%, and what are the necessary steps to make that possible?

In this episode, Nate welcomes back Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, for a wide-ranging conversation on AI futures and safety. Tristan explains how his organization pivoted from social media to AI risks after insiders at AI labs warned him in early 2023 that a dangerous step-change in capabilities was coming – and with it, risks that are orders of magnitude larger. Tristan outlines the economic and psychological consequences already unfolding under AI's race-to-the-bottom engagement incentives, as well as the major threat categories we face: including massive wealth concentration, government surveillance, and the very real risk that humanity loses meaningful control of AI systems in critical domains. He also shares about his involvement in the new documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, and ultimately highlights the highest-leverage areas in the movement toward safer AI development.

If we start seeing AI risks clearly without surrendering to despair, could we regain the power to steer toward safer technological futures? What would it mean to design AI around human wellbeing rather than engagement, attention, and profit? And can we cultivate the kind of shared cultural reckoning that makes collective action possible – before it's too late?

(Conversation recorded on March 5th, 2025)

About Tristan Harris:

Tristan is the Co-Founder of the Center for Humane Technology (CHT), a nonprofit organization whose mission is to align technology with humanity's best interests. He is also the co-host of the top-rated technology podcast Your Undivided Attention, where he, Aza Raskin, and Daniel Barclay explore the unprecedented power of emerging technologies and how they fit into both our lives and a humane future. Previously, Tristan was a Design Ethicist at Google, and today he studies how major technology platforms wield dangerous power over our ability to make sense of the world and leads the call for systemic change.

In 2020, Tristan was featured in the two-time Emmy-winning Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma. The film unveiled how social media is dangerously reprogramming our brains and human civilization. It reached over 100 million people in 190 countries across 30 languages. He regularly briefs heads of state, technology CEOs, and US Congress members, in addition to mobilizing millions of people around the world through mainstream media.

Most recently, Tristan was featured in the 2026 documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, which is available in theaters on March 27th. Learn more about Tristan's work and get involved at the Center for Humane Technology.

Join The Human Movement now at HUMAN.MOV

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

This week's Frankly marks a turning point in the work of The Great Simplification. Having spent twenty years articulating the more-than-human predicament, Nate shifts from diagnosis to direction as current events – including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – accelerate the timeline. Today Nate shares a first-pass framework for action and response that's organized around what to do now, which could be applied to various places and at multiple scales.

The framework begins with a personal foundation of inner work: stabilizing the nervous system, recapturing a sense of agency, doing grief work, and cultivating inner calmness as a precondition for effective action. Nate also emphasizes the need to build trusted networks and shared language so that when disruptions arrive, communities aren't starting conversations from scratch. These two layers set the foundation for six broad fronts of intervention: infrastructure and physical stock-and-flow planning, poverty and displacement, ecological defense and regeneration, civic resilience and governance, culture and meaning, and economic transition toward commons-based and post-growth models. Nate stresses that these fronts are interdependent and not contingent on a single scenario – they hold across various possible scenarios for the future.

Nate also introduces a timeline axis of three overlapping phases, which build upon each other to shape the conditions of our future: the current stability window where building is still possible, the period of triage and "bend not break," and the stable attractor that gives direction to the work of the first two. Nate closes with an observation about leadership: that modern systems select for dark triad traits, and that reluctance to lead may itself be a signal worth heeding.

What do you currently do with your time? Which of these six areas of engagement feels the most accessible to you right now? And where in your networks do you see the beginnings of shared language and trust that could support coordinated response?

(Recorded March 17th, 2026)

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The number of couples struggling to become pregnant due to unexplained infertility is growing at an alarming rate across the globe. Alongside this concerning rise is the growing awareness of how endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) – particularly those found in plastics and personal care products – are negatively affecting our hormonal health and overall well-being. If we removed or reduced EDCs from the environments of couples struggling to conceive – dramatically reducing their exposure – is it possible their fertility would be improved?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Shanna Swan, an award-winning scientist, and Sian Sutherland, a plastics expert, to discuss Shanna's new Netflix documentary, titled The Plastic Detox, where she enacts a real-world 'plastic intervention' in the lives of six couples struggling with unexplained infertility – with the hope that they are able to get pregnant by the end of the study. Additionally, Sian shares the strategies her organization has been using to increase regulation of EDC-containing products and increase the availability of plastic-free options. Shanna and Sian also discuss how they're bringing their work together for the Plastic Free Babies campaign, which emphasizes why avoiding toxic chemical exposure during the first one-thousand days of a baby's life is so important to preventing generational effects on overall health and fertility.

How might reducing our exposure to EDCs such as phthalates, bisphenols, and parabens improve markers of hormonal health and create ripple effects on our overall quality of life? What is the reasonable responsibility of our governments to test and regulate the safety of products on the market – and are our current institutions fulfilling those expectations? Finally, could addressing the toxins and pollution related to declining fertility lead us down a path of broader systemic change for the entire web of life?

About Dr. Shanna Swan:

Dr. Shanna H. Swan, PhD, is an award-winning scientist based at Mt. Sinai (New York, NY). Shanna has published more than 200 scientific papers and has been featured in extensive media coverage around the world. She currently serves as the Director of the Action Science Initiative, a program that conducts rapid interventions and larger, longer-term studies that look at the impacts of environmental pollutants on fertility and related markers of reproductive health. Additionally, Shanna co-authored the 2021 book, Countdown: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race.

Most recently, Shanna was featured in the documentary, The Plastic Detox, where she helped six couples dealing with unexplained fertility reduce their exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in their environment in hopes of getting pregnant. The movie was released on Netflix on March 16th, 2026. Shanna's previous appearances include ABC News, NBC Nightly News, 60 Minutes, CBS News, PBS, BBC, PRI Radio, NPR, Andrew Huberman Lab, and The Joe Rogan Experience.

About Sian Sutherland:

Sian Sutherland is Co-founder of A Plastic Planet, one of the most recognized and respected organizations tackling the plastic crisis. More recently, she also co-founded PlasticFree, the first materials and systems solutions platform, empowering the 160m global creatives to design waste out at the source. Sian was awarded the Female Marketer of the Year, Entrepreneur of the Year, and British Inventor of the Year. In 2023 at the UN Plastics Treaty negotiations (INC2), in partnership with Plastic Soup Foundation, A Plastic Planet launched the Plastic Health Council, bringing expert scientists to the negotiating process with the irrefutable proof of plastic chemicals' impacts on human health.

Most recently, in early 2024, Sian co-founded the Foundation for Visionary Science and Art with Alex Adams, working with the scientists to help fund their extraordinary research work on psychedelic therapies. Passionately pro-business and solutions focused, Sian believes the plastic crisis gives mankind a rare gateway to change both materials and systems to create a different future for next generations.

Show Notes and More

Watch this video episode on YouTube

Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

---

Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future

Join our Substack newsletter

Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners