The Hoon

TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and Cathrine Dyer on climate change.

Special guest Craig Renney talks about public sector job cuts this week and the Government’s big investment freeze at the end of the podcast.

The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Housing: A global survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found surveyors in Aotearoa-NZ reported sharp contractions in activity and expectations for infrastructure and public housing in the March quarter because of project cancellations and funding freezes for councils by the new Government. See Thursday’s email.

* Economy: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in construction activity after the new Government froze or reversed spending decisions on water, housing and transport investment. A drumbeat of state sector job losses and austerity rhetoric has further chilled retail spending and the housing market. See Wednesday’s email.

* Politics: A 1News-Verian poll showed the collapse in business, consumer and voter confidence about the country’s direction in March and April has translated into the worst polling performance for any first-term Government since the introduction of MMP in 1996. See Monday’s email.

* Housing: The Government’s hopes landlords would fund the building of new homes for rent and reduce rents from better after-tax returns from their existing rentals are falling on deaf ears, a survey landlords found this week. Investor intentions to build or develop new homes hit a record low in April, while more than 80% plan to increase rents in the next 12 months, back at pre-election levels. See Monday’s email.

* Cost of living: Bus and train fares for teenagers jumped this week because of Government public transport funding cuts, adding to the inflation pressures generated by double-digit hikes in council rates, again because of Government funding freezes and cuts. The Government has also imposed road user charges for electric vehicle owners and has promised to reintroduce prescription fees, all of which are contributing to inflation pressure and keeping mortgage rates high for longer. See Monday’s email.

* Politics: Labour called on PM Christopher Luxon to stand down Winston Peters as Foreign Minister after statements Peters made on RNZ about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr. In Parliament yesterday, after David Parker raised Peters’ description of Carr as “a puppet of China”, Peters then doubled down and referred to an AFR article that described Carr as a ‘pawn’ of China. Luxon said he thought Carr would see it as the usual ‘rough and tumble’ of politics. We discuss this in the podcast above from 30mins to 40mins.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the economy and foxes.

* 5:10 pm - 5:20 pm - Peter and Bernard talked with Cathrine about fresh revelations Big Oil is deliberately blocking a transition to carbon zero, as detailed in her weekly climate news wrap published yesterday.

* 5:20 - 5:50 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman about a growing debate about whether Aotearoa-NZ should join AUKUS Pillar II, along with news yesterday Winston Peters faces defamation accusations from Bob Carr.

* 5:40 - 6:00 pm - Peter and Bernard talked with Craig Renney about the job cuts in Wellington, the Government’s budget choices and a lack of investment.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

Other things I did elsewhere

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff, including this interview with Auckland University’s Deborah Levy about a paper she co-wrote on the growing financialisation of holiday homes in Aotearoa.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and Cathrine Dyer on climate change.

The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Climate: Ongoing double-digit hikes in council rates and insurance linked to climate change helped pump up March quarter inflation and is helping to delay mortgage rate cuts until late this year, or even early 2025. So should the Reserve Bank look through climate change inflation? It says no, but there’s a risk climate shocks drive up inflation and interest rates, delaying de-carbonisation investment. See more in Thursday’s email.

* Transport Minister Simeon Brown asked Waka Kotahi-NZTA to again consider digging a 4-km-long four-lane motorway tunnel from The Terrace to Kilbirnie, shocking Wellington’s transport planners yesterday, who said the $10-billion-plus cost was prohibitive and wasteful. See more in Monday’s email.

* Housing: Construction industry leaders say the Government’s freezing of funding for Kāinga Ora and water infrastructure was generating “weak” and “vague” signals about future pipelines for infrastructure and housing, which was helping to drive many builders closer to collapse. See more in Monday’s email.

* Health: Associate Health Minister Casey Costello never passed official advice on to Cabinet with an analysis for the BMJ showing that keeping Labour’ssmokefree changes would have boosted consumers’ disposable incomes by $51 billion by 2050, more than offsetting $19 billion in net losses for the Government. See more in Monday’s email.

* Climate: The size of the global economy will shortly peak, and then begin a steep decline, falling by at least one fifth by 2050 as a result of climate damages according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the journal Nature. See more in the Hoon in the discussion with Cathrine Dyer and here in the article and video we published earlier today.

* Population: Stats NZ reported a record-high 226,000 non-New Zealand citizens migrated here in the year to February, while a record-high 74,900 New Zealand citizens migrated elsewhere, with just over half leaving for Australia. That equals a full A320 each day, with most getting off in Australia. See more in Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about their favourite books and bingeing shows.

* 5:10 pm - 5:20 pm - Peter and Bernard talked with Cathrine about the Potsdam paper in Nature. They also mentioned a Wired article downplaying the role of cloud seeding in Dubai’s floods this week, and an article by Auckland University’s Kevin Trenberth about the risks of geoengineering.

* 5:20 - 5:50 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman about a growing debate about whether Aotearoa-NZ should join AUKUS Pillar Two. They mentioned an article by Robert and Marco De Jong on AUKUS.

* 5:50 - 6:00 pm - Peter and Bernard talked about Bernard’s idea that a 1% levy on digital advertising to raise $21 million per year could support journalism by being distributed to subscription news producers at a rate of $2 for each $1 earned in new subscriptions.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff, including this interview with Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr about a major shift in views on inflation and interest rates here in Aotearoa and globally this week: they’re now seen high for longer because the ‘last mile’ of inflation is proving harder to reduce than expected.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

PS: Here’s the climate wrap we also produced this week with Cathrine, and the one-off podcast on the Potsdam report.

TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale, along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, Merja Myllylahti on AUT’s trust in news report, Awhi’s Holly Bennett on a watered-down voluntary code for lobbyists, plus special guest Patrick Gower on the closure of Newshub.

The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Chris Bishop rejecting a Hamilton community housing provider’s plea for capital to build 42 new affordable rentals, contrasting with National’s ‘supercharging social housing’ promise in its ‘Going for Housing Growth’ manifesto last year. See more in Thursday’s email.

* Christopher Luxon announcing “nine ambitious Government targets to help improve the lives of New Zealanders.” Seven would return results to pre-Covid levels and one is adopted from Labour. Only one is newly ambitious: 80% school attendance. See more in Tuesday’s email.

* Another opinion poll showing a collapse in the coalition Government’s lead over the Opposition and a further deterioration in Christopher Luxon’s popularity, including that Chris Bishop is now seen as less unpopular than his leader. See more in Wednesday’s email.

* Warner Brothers Discovery and TVNZ confirming the sacking of a combined 380 journalists from Newshub and 1News, which represents 21% of the nation’s entire journalist workforce of less than 1,700 gone in one day. See more in Thursday’s email.

* The closure of the Sunday and Fair Go programmes meaning the number of dedicated full-time and paid investigative journalists publishing in public has more than halved to less than a dozen in the last six months, including the folding of Stuff’s Circuit team late last year. See more in Thursday’s email.

* The Government setting up its own experts group to review the goalposts for farmers to reduce methane emissions by as much as 47% by 2050, effectively side-stepping the Government’s official advisors at the Climate Commission, who said there was no evidence to support such a move. See Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about this week’s loss of 21% of the nation’s journalists.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Peter and Bernard talked about March being the 10th consecutive month of record high temperatures and a 38.5 degrees celcius jump in a temperature measure in Antarctica. See more in our weekly climate wrap with Cathrine Dyer published earlier today.

* 5.20 - 5.35 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman talked about US exceptionalism on Gaza, and why it’s complicating the push to include Aotearoa-NZ in AUKUS Pillar Two, which Japan has also now been invited to.

* 5.35 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter and Bernard talked with the Co-Director of AUT’s Research Centre for Journalism, Media and Democracy, Merja Myllylahti, on the centre’s Trust in News report published this week.

* 5.45 pm to 5.55 pm - PR and comms firm Awhi’s owner Holly Bennett on a quiet watering down of a voluntary code of conduct for lobbyists detailed by Transparency International here.

* 5.55 - 6.05 - Paddy Gower on the demise of Newshub confirmed this week.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff, including this interview with Kiwibank Economist Sabrina Delgado on how inflation impacts everyone differently and reveal who is being hit hardest by the current spike.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Confidence in the Government, as measured by Roy Morgan’s ‘Right Track/Wrong Track’ survey, collapsed in March by more than it fell for Labour in any one month of the late-2021 lockdowns in Auckland. See Thursday’s email.

* Confidence about the Government and support for the three governing coalition parties fell the most among women, with young women the least supportive of National/ACT/NZ First and both young and old men most supportive.See Thursday’s email.

* A review of council borrowing found central Government-driven debt limits are strangling big councils’ ability to borrow to build enough infrastructure for growth, although some councils are further tightening the reins with even lower self-imposed limits and by over-playing fears of credit rating downgrades. See Tuesday’s email.

* Community housing providers and Kāinga Ora are putting social house building plans on hold because of a Government-wide freeze on capital and funding decisions for housing, transport and water infrastructure. See Wednesday’s email.

* Prime Minister Christopher Luxon saying his Government has started “chunking down” its next 100-day plan into a series of items to arrange in “decision gates” — a business consulting phrase coined by McKinsey to refer to the prioritising of business cases. See Wednesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about a gender gap opening up in political views in Aotearoa-NZ.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Peter, Bernard, andCathrine Dyer talked about reports questioning the expected fall in oil and gas emissions and predicting permanently higher food inflation because of climate change.

* 5.20 - 5.35 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman talked about US and Israeli exceptionalism on Gaza and how that makes AUKUS II much less attractive for our Government to join.

* 5.35 pm - 5.55 pm - Peter and Bernard spoke with University of Victoria Associate Professor in Politics Lara Greaves on the gender gaps opening up in politics here and overseas.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff, including this interview with Auckland Airport CEO Carrie Hurihanganui.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Today we farewell Rod Oram. He was a colleague and friend for Lynn and I. Please take some time today to read more of his work here at Newsroom. There is a livestream link to his memorial service starting today at 11 am.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Finance Minister Nicola Willis unveiled a Budget Policy Statement that showed the new Government will have to borrow up to $15 billion to replace the same amount of tax revenue reduction from a slowing economy, unless it chooses not to go ahead with $14.9 billion of tax cuts. Willis pledged to go ahead with the debt-funded tax cuts, despite growing opposition from her own supporters worried about appearing fiscally irresponsible, including John Key, Oliver Hartwich and Richard Prebble. See Thursday’s email.

* Chris Bishop laid out his vision for infrastructure planning and financing, including using tolls, water charges, congestion charges, private debt and value-capture rates to pay to build and maintain infrastructure. But he didn’t specify how a bipartisan approach on planning, funding, population growth and climate emissions would create a credible platform that councils, investors, developers and builders could rely on for longer than a year or two. See Wednesday’s email.

* Judith Collins announced New Zealand had identified a Chinese state-sponsored group known as APT40 as the source of a hack into the IT systems of the Parliamentary Counsel Officeand the Parliamentary Service in 2021. This was the first time our Government has formally accused China of attacking Aotearoa’s democratic systems, although it was done in concert with accusations earlier yesterday against Beijing of worse attacks on systems in the UK and US. See Wednesday’s email and hear the discussion with Anne-Marie Brady and Robert Patman from 35 mins in the podcast above.

* Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, an analysis of GDP data for 2023 showed1, emphasising Aotearoa Inc’s lack of productivity progress since the Global Financial Crisis (See chart of the week below). Our low-to-no productivity growth is thanks to low investment in public infrastructure, skills and businesses so any spare household and business cash can be put into leveraged land for tax-free gains or repatriated in dividend form to overseas owners. See Monday’s email.

* Simeon Brown threatened councils with intervention yesterday if they don’t merge water assets to take them off balance sheet, just as the now-repealed Three Waters plan directed. He also repeated comments made previously about the Government not putting up any more of its capital and not providing a guarantee to these off-balance-sheet vehicles. See Monday’s email

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the politics of urban densification and the future of Newshub on TV3.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Peter, Bernard, andCathrine Dyer talked about this week’s report on the readiness of emergency management for Cyclone Gabrielle and the failings that need to be fixed in a warming climate with more extreme events that are more extreme.

* 5.20 - 5.35 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman talked about the latest from the terror attack in Russia, Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the war in Ukraine.

* 5.35 pm - 5.55 pm - Peter, Bernard and Robert spoke with University of Canterbury Professor Anne-Marie Brady about the historic identification this week of China as responsible for a cyber-attack on our Parliamentary IT systems. She wrote the seminal Magic Weapons paper in 2017 on China’s political influence campaigns in Aotearoa-NZ.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

Other places I appeared this week

I appeared on an episode of 1News’ Breakfast to talk about migration’s role in our economy.

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff.

This week’s interview with Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey refers to the Electric Homes report the group published earlier this month. Here’s the interview in Youtube form too.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

It was a busy week.

We produced 10 podcasts totalling three and a half hours of coverage of our political economy and the global economy, plus 15 posts delivered via email to nearly 20,000 subscribers via The Kākā by Bernard Hickey 5 in 5 with ANZ and The Spinoff across Substack, Youtube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Google Podcasts, plus appearing on 1News. There were over 150,000 page views recorded on Substack and over 3,000 downloads of podcasts via Substack this week. And it was only a four-day week. Thank you in particular to Lynn Grieveson Peter Bale Simon Josey, Cathrine Dyer Te Aihe Butler and Jane Yee.

Time for a rest. Hope you have a great long weekend.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit interviews and delivering a valedictory speech in Parliament where he again called for a tax on capital and wealth and said the Government could and should sustain more debt to invest in infrastructure for future generations. See Monday’s email

* The Government announced a crackdown on Kāinga Ora tenants who were unruly and/or behind on their rent. Housing Minister Chris Bishop saying a place in a state house was a privilege, not a right. He could not guarantee those evicted or their families would avoid becoming homeless. See Tuesday’s email.

* The Government shocked Aotearoa’s disabled communities by abruptly stopping spending on what it deemed as non-essential items for the last three months of the fiscal year. Ministers are scrambling to cut spending to fill a multi-billion dollar hole in the coalition’s tax-cutting plans before the Budget on May 30. See Wednesday’s email.

* The IMF warned the Government to fully offset promised tax cuts with spending cuts and/or tax increases elsewhere to avoid further stimulating inflation. It also again said Aotearoa-NZ should adopt a comprehensive capital gains tax, a land value tax and cut corporate taxes to improve investment and productivity. See Thursday’s email.

* Auckland Council is opposing a Wave park and data centre development at Dairy Flat because it said the project could not cope with the effects of possible climate warming of 3.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which is its new assumption for climate change. See more in Thursday’s email and in the Hoon discussion with Troy Baisden from 41:20 onwards.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about Rod Oram’s death this week.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Peter, Bernard, andCathrine Dyer talked about the tail risks of an extreme rise in global temperatures and the huge amount of energy AI will require.

* 5.20 pm - 5.35 pm - Peter and Bernard spoke with Christchurch tech commentator and Ben Reid about his new book Fast Forward Aotearoa. He is the author of Memia by Ben Reid

* 5.35 - 5.45 - Peter and Bernard talked with Robert Patman talked about the new book he edited called New Zealand's Foreign Policy under the Jacinda Ardern Government: Facing the Challenge of a Disrupted World.

* 5.40 pm - 5.55 pm - Peter and Bernard spoke with Te Pūnaha Matatini Principal Investigator and co-President of the NZ Association of Scientists Troy Baisden about Auckland Council’s new 3.8 degrees of warming assumption when approving, or blocking, big new projects possibly affected by climate change. Troy writes the Environmental Integrity Project Substack.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

Other places I appeared this week

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who would be grateful for the lower rents it would produce. But his comments are at odds with official research and the evidence of the last 20 years of rents and mortgage costs. See Thursday’s email.

* The Climate Commission told the new Government to cut the number of carbon credits it plans to sell in the Emissions Trading Scheme, potentially increasing the size of the funding hole for its $14.9 billion of tax cuts by a further $1.7 billion, adding to the gaps already there from a lack of foreign buyers tax revenue of $2.9 billion and an $800 million higher-than-expected bill for interest deductibility. See Wednesday’s email.

* Wellington City Council overturned and up-zoned many of the recommendations of an Independent Hearing Panel’s shockingly down-zoned District Plan, creating the potential for tens of thousands of extra homes being built in the capital in coming decade. See a preview of the decision in Tuesday’s email and detail on the results and comment in last night’s hoon above.

* The Government is trumpeting the speed, breadth and single-decision-making tools it is creating for itself to get big projects consented quickly, but its funding plans remain on decidedly slower tracks that are dependent on multiple decision-makers and unmade tough political decisions. The political narrative around our $100 billion infrastructure deficit is that consenting is the culprit, when actually funding go-slows, self-imposed debt restrictions and the capacity and desire of private sector balance sheets, boards and fund manager mandates to lend or buy into these projects is the main restraint. See more in Monday’s email.

* Details emerged of concessions made by ACT in the implementation of the reintroduction of deductibility of interest costs for landlords. The coalition deal said landlords could retroactively claim 60% of tax paid in the 2023/24 year. That was dropped. Instead, landlords can claim 80% from April 1 for 2024/25 and 100% for 2025/26. Seymour said he accepted the extra fiscal cost couldn't be afforded. See more in Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:20 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the future of Wellington.

* 5.20 pm - 5.35 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, including this CNN article about Russian shell factories outproducing Europe and the United States by almost three to one.

* 5.40 pm - 5.55 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with housing economist and Motu fellow Stuart Donovan about Thursday’s Wellington City Council housing densification votes. Here’s the detail via Stuart’s X feed and the liveblog from Joel MacManus at The Spinoff.

* 5.55 - 6.02 - A soliloquy from Bernard about housing and media, plus a skateboarding dog story from Peter.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

Other places I appeared this week

I produced an episode of When The Facts Change via The Spinoff.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The new National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government completed the 49 tasks it set itself in its 100-day plan on Friday, using urgency in Parliament more than any recent Government to pass repeals of RMA, Smokefree, Three Waters, Auckland Fuel Levy, Clean Car Discount and RBNZ employment mandate legislation, and to introduce its Fast-track Approvals Bill. See Friday’s email.

* In an effort to save $340 million a year, the new Government announced plans to slash the number of motel vouchers given out to homeless families, arguing many could and should stay with friends and family instead. See Thursday’s email.

* The new Government announced various policies this week forcing councils and others to increase their rates and prices, adding to inflationary and mortgage rate pressures it had vowed to reduce. See Wednesday’s email.

* The new Government unveiled its draft transport policy, surprising voters with a $50 increase in car registration fees, 22c/litre of increases in fuel taxes from 2027 and plans for privately-run toll roads, congestion charges and a new system of road-user charges based on weight of vehicles and kilometres travelled. See Tuesday’s email.

* PM Christopher Luxon’s decision to claim $1,000/week in expenses from taxpayers for living in his own apartment in Wellington when he could have lived in Premier House again illustrated how our society has become a housing-market-with-bits tacked-on. See Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:20 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the loss of more than half of the nation’s television news journalists in a fortnight, along with comments by David Seymour, the SOEs minister reviewing TVNZ’s status, that were critical of a TVNZ journalist on a day when half the newsroom was sacked.

* 5.20 pm - 5.35 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* 5.45 pm -6 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with Environmental Defence Society CEO Gary Taylor about the Government’s Fast-track Approvals bill, which he has described as ‘the Government’s war on nature going nuclear.’

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.)

Other places I appeared this week

I talked with Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the RBNZ’s decision to hold the OCR, the likely introduction of DTI controls offset by a loosening of LVR controls, the challenge for banks and insurers to work together on climate risks, and the battle banks and their customers are having with scammers. Kiwibank sponsor When The Facts Change.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Newsroom’s Marc Daalder reported on Friday PM Christopher Luxon was claiming $52,000 a year in rental costs from the taxpayer for living in his own apartment in Wellington when he could have lived in Premier House , as previous PMs from outside Wellington have done. After saying he was fully entitled to claim the expense on Friday morning, he reversed his position on Friday afternoon, saying the issue had become a ‘distraction.’

* The Reserve Bank held the OCR at 5.5% and signalled it would remain there for the rest of the year. Governor Adrian Orr told me in an interview on Thursday high net migration had reduced inflation last year, but may not this year. He also said the new Government’s decision to remove its employment mandate had not made any difference to how it ran monetary policy. See Friday’s email.

* Banks holding off on passing through lower wholesale interest rates to lower fixed mortgage rates must now decide whether to retain their profit margin expansion. See Thursday’s email.

* Housing Minister Chris Bishop gave a major speech promising to swamp the housing market with new supplies of buildable land and saying he wanted to halve house prices relative to incomes within 10-20 years. See Wednesday’s email.

* Aotearoa’s infrastructure deficit and the magical thinking of voters and politicians came home to roost on Monday with news of endemic problems with commuter rail in Wellington and the suspension of new building work in schools. See Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the shocking announcement of the closure of Newshub.

* 5:10 pm to 5:20 pm - Bernard, Peter and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer talked about news of a year of heat records for sea temperatures and the problem of a lack of a full decoupling between GDP growth and emissions growth.

* 5.20 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* 5.45 pm -6 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with Newsroom co-founder Mark Jennings about the complete closure of Newshub, what a single television newsroom country was like, and how a cut-down version of Newshub could survive.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked with Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the bank’s decision to hold the OCR at 5.5% this week, how high net migration affects inflation, and whether losing its employment mandate makes any difference.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The new Government is reviewing migration settings that produced 2.8% population growth last year and is looking at a longer-term strategy of matching population growth to the ‘absorbtive capacity’ of Aotearoa-NZ’s infrastructure. See more in Monday’s email.

* Prime Minister Christopher Luxon adopted the language of Ruth Richardson before her 1991 ‘Mother of All Budgets’ in arguing for benefit sanctions to bolster the Government finances, which he said were in such a mess that there was a risk of losing the confidence of creditors. Luxon said it was time New Zealanders had a ‘grown-up conversation’ about the ‘brutal facts of our reality’ and he would not shy away from taking ‘hard decisions’.  But the evidence shows Aotearoa-NZ’s financial position is nowhere near as troubling as it faced in 1991 and even if it were, the really ‘hard decisions’ would be to follow the advice of the financial grown-ups of the world — the IMF, the OECD and the World Bank — which is to tax capital gains, focus on much faster reductions in climate emissions and to avoid pointless austerity that widens inequality and would scar another generation, See more in Tuesday’s email.

* Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the outlooks for the debt issued by 15 councils, immediately increasing borrowing costs and forcing rates increases that will further inflate living costs and keep pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep mortgage rates high. S&P blamed the new Government’s decision to repeal Three Waters and the resulting uncertainty about how councils would pay to repair and expand infrastructure needed to cope with 1.5-2% per year population growth enabled over the last 20 years by both parties running the Beehive.  See more in Wednesday’s email.

* Stats NZ reported the number of children living in material hardship rose by 23,400 to 143,700 (12.% of all kids) in the year to the end of June. The percentage of Maori kids living in poverty was 21.5%, little changed in statistical terms from the previous year. See more in Friday’s email.

* Flying in the face of comments from a ratings agency and a mountain of demand for a new long-term sovereign bond issued yesterday, Finance Minister Nicola Willis again characterised the Government’s finances as too fragile to borrow in its own right to solve Aotearoa-NZ’s infrastructure deficits. But the ‘grown-ups’ in financial markets and in ratings agencies are saying the exact opposite. S&P Global Director of Sovereign and Public Finance Ratings, Anthony Walker, told me in an interview the Crown’s AAA rating was not fragile and the Crown had 30% of GDP ($120 billion) of borrowing capacity before it would be downgraded.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5:00 pm - 5:05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the week’s local news, in particular the retirement of Grant Robertson and the tragic passing of Efeso Collins.

* 5:05 pm - 5:20 pm - Bernard and Peter talked with David Farrier from Webworm with David Farrier about his new Big Worm Farm fund for investigative journalism. Details here

* 5:20 pm to 5:30 pm - Bernard, Peter and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer talked about the significance of the loss of FSC certification for log exports by Earnslaw because of slash damage in 2018 (1News) and a study that found global support for climate action being ‘systematically under-estimated’ Carbonbrief.

* 5.25 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* 5.45 pm -6 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with CTU Economist Craig Renney about the Government treating its finances like household finances, next week’s rate hike(?) chances and this week’s child poverty stats.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked with S&P Global Government Ratings Director Anthony Walker for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about downgrades to the ratings outlooks for 15 councils and the political economy of borrowing from the Crown’s balance sheet to fix our infrastructure deficit.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard