The Hoon

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The Electoral Commission declared the final election results after counting special votes, including National (48) losing two election-night electorate seats to Labour (34), Te Pāti Māori (6) winning two more electorate seats from Labour (6), the Greens winning one more list seat (15), and ACT (11) and NZ First (8) unchanged;

* the final results mean National-ACT on 59 (soon to be 60 after National wins Port Waikato) won’t have the required 62 seats needed to have a majority in the 123 seat Parliament, so will need the support of NZ First leader Winston Peters, as have four coalition Governments over the last 26 years;

* US long-term interest rates fell sharply in the last 48 hours after the US Federal Reserve appeared to indicate it could stop hiking interest rates, which will take some pressure off mortgage rates here;

* The Reserve Bank warned in its Financial Stability Report of more financial stress among younger borrowers who took out big mortgages from 2020 to 2022, but said bad debts and forced sales remain very low, reinforcing that the most stress for households is among Aotearoa’s hundreds of thousands of mostly young poor renters, who are the most stressed in the world (Thurday’s Chorus); and,

* National appears set to push councils to move their water assets off their balance sheets in a very similar way to Labour’s Three Waters plan, just without the co-governance and as much compulsion, but still with the flawed idea that somehow off-balance-sheet borrowing is actually better for taxpayers and ratepayers in the long run than facing up to the fact that higher taxes, charges and public debt are needed to fund fast population growth (Wednesday’s Chorus).

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the election result and why might happen next with interest rates and house prices.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about a new paper from James Hansen warning that warming could exceed 1.5 C by the end of the 2020s and 2 C by 2050, and Treasury’s advice that emissions credits needed to bought overseas to achieve our Paris targets could cost up to $26 billion, but are not included as a liability in the Crown accounts. Wednesday’s Chorus.

* 5.20 pm - 6 pm - Josie Pagani and Robert Patman talked about the Israel-Hamas war and the election results.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Not what we need when our population grew by 110,000 last year

Other places I appeared this week

I interviewed former Z Energy CEO Mike Bennetts for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about his new book on leadership.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoons of the week

Kings and Queens

The MMP Frankenstein

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* National won last weekend’s election and has started talks to form a Government with both ACT and New Zealand First, although they’ll only start in earnest after the November 3 declaration of the final makeup of Parliament after the counting of special votes. National didn’t win quite enough seats on election night to govern comfortably alone with ACT so will have to so something with Winston Peters, even if it is peripheral, outside Cabinet and includes a few baubles such as the Foreign Ministry and a new version of the Provincial Growth Fund. Sunday’s email.

* Rents are so stressful for working poor and beneficiaries that it is forcing 600,000 people to have to use food banks regularly, up more than third since Covid, the NZ Food Network said on Thursday. Yet there were 214,749 new temporary work visas issued in the 12 months to the end of September and our population grew 105,900 in the year to June, with most of those migrant arrivals trying to settle on arrival in Auckland, where rents rose 9.4% and only 18,003 building consents were issued last year, down 16% on a year ago. Friday’s email.

* Agents and brokers reported rental property investors surged back into the market in the days since National’s election win, confident of more advantageous tax rules and hopeful interest rates won’t rise because of lower inflation and less Government borrowing. Wednesday’s email.

* National’s appointment of a foreign minister is shaping up as a key decision in Government-forming negotiations, and not just as a way to get Winston Peters to agree to a confidence and supply deal. Our Five Eyes partners are uneasy about the relatively more pro-China views of National’s Foreign Affairs spokesman Gerry Brownlee and have preferred Peters in the past, given his track record of championing the ‘Pacific Pivot’ now seen as a key strategy in the contest between the United States and China. Tuesday’s email.

* Electoral Commission figures show there were just over 1.060 million missing voters in the election out of a total eligible population of 3.871 million, with enrolment data and surveys showing most of that missing 27% of voters were young renters from Maori, Pasifika and recent young immigrant backgrounds. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the election and the Israel-Hamas war.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about a new paper on Greenland’s ice sheet melting, new bans on cruise ships in Europe, and how to measure methane’s impact on the climate.

* 5.20 pm - 5.55 pm - Bernard, Peter, Josie Pagani and Robert Patman talked about the Israel-Hamas war, politics and benefits of localism in Government.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

The articles and interviews we talked about on The Hoon included:

* a new paper in Nature forecasting Greenland’s melting will accelerate abruptly if the average global temperature rises above pre-industrial level by as little as as 1.7 degrees to 2.3 degrees;

* An interview on the Rest is Politics podcast between Rory Stewart and Israeli historian Yuval Noah Hariri about the war in Gaza and Israel; and,

* Josie’s column in The Post-$$$ yesterday on the need for public sector transformation.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

What happens when I move to a place…plus climate change

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Giacomo Caleffi from Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about its plans to build a 1GW windfarm offshore in South Taranaki with the NZ Superannuation Fund.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

RIP Tony Husband

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Population growth from immigration of temporary workers to replace and supplement emigrating resident workers rose to more than 2% in the last year, without nearly enough infrastructure built or planned for two decades at that level, and without any real debate just days before an election. Thursday’s email.

* National’s tax switch plan would create a direct wealth transfer from beneficiaries to landlords totalling $2 billion over four years, a CTU analysis found, including mega-landlords with over 200 rentals each getting $1.3 million each, while 350,000 beneficiaries will lose $17,000 each because of an indexation change back to prices from wages. Wednesday’s email.

* Election rules mean the death on Sunday of ACT’s candidate in the safe National electorate of Port Waikato, Neil Christensen, will force a by-election that effectively adds an MP to the 120 MP Parliament after this weekend’s general election. It is essentially and accidentally a ‘free’ MP for National, which could prove the difference in a hung result that means National-ACT doesn’t need NZ First’s support to govern. Tuesday’s email

* National’s decision to rule in potential coalition negotiations with Winston Peters led campaign chair Chris Bishop to say failed talks could lead to a re-run of the election, which Labour said showed a National win would be chaotic. Monday’s email.

* A landmark Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ report forecast an increasing number of increasingly extreme climate events like Cyclone Gabrielle. Thursday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the election, and about Bernard and Lynn Grieveson’s plans to move to an island in the Hauraki Gulf.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the non-debate had over climate in the election, despite a record spike in temperatures globally (and locally) in September and just seven months after New Zealand’s most expensive storm. record heat globally and in Aotearoa in September, and an emergency summit held by climate scientists about Antarctica’s shrinking ice coverage (see chart of the day below).

* 5.20 pm - 5.50 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the Israel-Hamas war.

* 5.50 - 6.00 pm - Then inequality and wealth academic Max Rashbrooke joined us to talk about Wellington City Council’s deliberative democracy experiment.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

It is being published at 7.01pm on Saturday October 14 to reduce any risks of not complying with election rules preventing publication of material that mentions candidates or policies in the election.

Articles, news and podcasts referred to during the podcast include:

* Peter mentioned an article he wrote here on election debate on talkback and an article by Robert on the election and foreign affairs.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Pic of the week

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Octopus Energy’s Head of Systems Change, Marcia Poletti, for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about how Aotearoa could use our ripple control systems for turning hot water heaters on and off to manage electricity demand, along with sending text messages to customers to ask them to turn things off.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The failure of yet another pre-fabricated house builder and a legal threat against our biggest council to force more greenfields development showed how our economy and society are now just a residential land market with bits tacked on. Thursday’s email.

* A CTU analysis of National’s tax cuts finds less than 3,000 households will get the top tax cut of $252/fortnight, surprising those who believed National’s (usually) carefully worded pledges of ‘up to’ $250/fortnight of tax cuts. Friday’s email. Friday’s email.

* Goldman Sachs warned National’s tax cuts could be inflationary and force the Reserve Bank to either hike again or keep interest rates high for longer than under Labour, while Auckland Council Mayor Wayne Brown warned National’s plan to remove Auckland’s regional fuel tax would trigger even bigger council rates hikes. Wednesday’s email.

* Auckland Council decided to borrow $11 million to buy a single large residential section (with house and pool) for $12 million in Manurewa to stop houses being built on it, arguing borrowing to buy land for future generations was a good idea, having argued earlier this year it needed to sell shares in Auckland Airport to repay debt. Tuesday’s email.

* Richie Poulton, the director of the world-leading Dunedin longitudinal study showing how devastating poverty in early life is, died last weekend, lamenting with his final words the lack of focus on solving child poverty in this year’s election debates. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about spring, Auckland’s sewerage disaster, Winston Peters’ revival, and the micro-politics of an island in the Hauraki Gulf.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the record heat globally and in Aotearoa in September, and an emergency summit held by climate scientists about Antarctica’s shrinking ice coverage (see chart of the day below).

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the supports wobbling under Ukraine in the politics of the US Congress and Germany, along with a growing debate over whether AUKUS is a good idea.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Then CTU EconomistCraig Renney joined the panel to talk about his analysis of National’s tax package showing less than 3,000 households would get the top tax cut of $252/fortnight.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Articles, news and podcasts referred to during the podcast include:

* Bernard mentioned a paper in the NZ Medical Journal on Friday that New Zealand’s covid response saved up to 20,000 lives;

* Cathrine mentioned data showing September was the planet’s warmest September ever by the massive margin of half a degree celcius (Copernicus);

* Peter mentioned a Chris Hipkins appearance on The Rest is Politics podcast with Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart; and,

* Peter mentioned an article in the The New Yorker about behavioural scientists into lying being accused of lying.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Wellington-based online marketing expert Assia Salikhova for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about using LinkedIn to grow and protect a business.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Labour presented a climate manifesto that aimed to claim the high ground on climate action vs National, but did so at the same time NZTA/Waka Kotahi cut $50 million from funding for cycleways from the Climate Emergency Response Fund. Friday’s email.

* National and ACT unveiled policies to label and sanction beneficiaries, just as fresh research emerged showing the need for many, many more social houses to deal with a decades-long housing crisis. Wednesday’s email.

* The RBNZ looks set to rain on National-ACT’s victory parade by hiking on November 29 to cool down a housing market threatening to surge again as soon as the victory is confirmed. Tuesday’s email.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon said he would talk to NZ First Leader Winston Peters after the election if he needed to. We talked about that in last night’s Hoon.

* Labour pledged to build 6,000 more state houses, while National said it would stop with the 3,000 currently being built by Kainga Ora. More than 40,000 are needed. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about an IEA report showing a 30% cut in fossil fuel use is needed in six years to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about Ukraine’s latest strikes on Russia and the prospects for a summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Then Josie Pagani joined the panel to talk about the election, politics and the return of Winston Peters.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Alex Birch from XYSense on Wednesday for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff. We talked about how office life is changing after covid.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoon of the day

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Treasury published the Pre Election Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday, including a one-year delay in Labour returning the Budget to surplus to 2026/27 and an extra $9 billion in borrowing over the next four years. But it also showed Aotearoa avoiding a recession, largely due to record high net migration this year. I wrote and podcasted about it in Wednesday’s email and did an episode of Gone By Lunchtime for The Spinoff with Toby Manhire on the PREFU on Tuesday. The video version of that is below.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and National Finance Spokesperson Nicola Willis refused repeatedly to release the modelling for their foreign buyers tax, despite independent economists publishing a paper showing the tax was likely to raise just a fifth of the $2.4 billion projected by National over four years. I challenged Nicola Willis on the plan, as well as National’s views on population, infrastructure funding and fiscal settings in a news conference I wrote about in Thursday’s email and podcast.

* REINZ data published on Wednesday showed the housing market warming up in anticipation of a National-ACT win on October 14, which I argued in Thursday’s email was likely to unleash an effective 20% rise in residential land prices the day after the election.

* A UN stocktake of progress achieving the 2015 Paris agreement was published last weekend showing commitments and progress made by the countries that signed up to the Paris Agreement estimated the gap to emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C in 2030 was estimated to be 20.3–23.9 Gt CO2 equivalent and the planet was on track to warm by 2.7 °C by 2100. I wrote about that in Monday’s email.

* Polls from Newshub/Reid Research on Monday and 1News/Verian on Wednesday showed support for Labour slumping under 30% and National-ACT able to govern alone from October 15. I wrote and podcasted about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about Te Reo week and Elon Musk.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about Labour’s deep retrofit trial policy and decision not to ban new gas connections, along with the latest UN stocktake on climate emissions, and a paper showing the world breaching its planetary boundaries.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about Ukraine’s latest strikes on Russia, Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Kim Jong Un and what the surprise disappearance of China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu says about unity around China’s President Xi Jinping.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard and Peter spoke with Interest.co.nz’s Rebecca Stevenson about her scoop this week that banks are paying hush money to not talk about widespread scams and fraud being perpetuated on their customers, sometimes by fraudsters with bank accounts here.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ doesn’t have a debt problem

House prices set to jump 20% if National-ACT win

National-ACT set to govern alone, two TV polls show

Christopher catches up to Chris as preferred PM

Berkeley Earth’s estimates of the causes of temperature change

Climate video of the week

Medicane Daniel destroys Derna in Libya

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr on Wednesday for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff. We took a lap around the macro-economy in the immediate aftermath of the PREFU. He sees signs of green shoots emerging in many regions.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* I interviewed Labour Leader and PM Chris Hipkins about Labour’s pitch for re-election for When The Facts Change, which was published yesterday here in video form.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and Hipkins laid out their visions for economic and business growth this week, but failed again to address the elephants in the room of our political economy. I wrote about that in Thursday’s email.

* This elephants include very fast population growth without enough infrastructure investment, our tax system’s overwhelming incentives for savers to invest in residential land rather than businesses and the unaccounted-for and massive climate, health and economic liabilities lurking in the Crown’s financial future without changes in housing, tax and climate policy.

* We published our first edition of The Kaka Project on universal dental care.

* Deep doubts emerged over National’s projected $2.96 billion of revenues from its foreign buyers’ tax, given tax lawyers and economists doubt the legal status of the tax and a required surge in foreign buying to collect that amount, which funds a fifth of National’s tax cuts. I wrote about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night (my apologies that an earlier version of this email included last week’s podcast file):

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about fresh polls showing Labour falling further behind National.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to dump the ‘Ute Tax’ and fresh research showing the need for a massive decoupling between GDP growth and climate emissions to stop the planet warming past dangerous levels.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the United States’ ongoing attempts to isolate China, which are facing increasing headwinds from global companies now dependent on China, including Apple.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ also champion of the world in the wrong thing

And this thing too

Climate pic of the day

700mm fell on Pelion in a day (same as London’s rain for a year)

Other places we appeared this week

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* I interviewed Labour Leader and PM Chris Hipkins about Labour’s pitch for re-election for When The Facts Change, which was published yesterday here in video form.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and Hipkins laid out their visions for economic and business growth this week, but failed again to address the elephants in the room of our political economy. I wrote about that in Thursday’s email.

* This elephants include very fast population growth without enough infrastructure investment, our tax system’s overwhelming incentives for savers to invest in residential land rather than businesses and the unaccounted-for and massive climate, health and economic liabilities lurking in the Crown’s financial future without changes in housing, tax and climate policy.

* We published our first edition of The Kaka Project on universal dental care.

* Deep doubts emerged over National’s projected $2.96 billion of revenues from its foreign buyers’ tax, given tax lawyers and economists doubt the legal status of the tax and a required surge in foreign buying to collect that amount, which funds a fifth of National’s tax cuts. I wrote about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about fresh polls showing Labour falling further behind National.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to dump the ‘Ute Tax’ and fresh research showing the need for a massive decoupling between GDP growth and climate emissions to stop the planet warming past dangerous levels.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the United States’ ongoing attempts to isolate China, which are facing increasing headwinds from global companies now dependent on China, including Apple.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ also champion of the world in the wrong thing

And this thing too

Climate pic of the day

700mm fell on Pelion in a day (same as London’s rain for a year)

Other places we appeared this week

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* National launched its Election 2023 plan for $14.6 billion of tax cuts paid for with government spending cuts, a raid on climate funds and a few new taxes on home-buying migrants and migrants paying for visas. I previewed the plan in Wednesday morning’s email.

* National’s plan directs most of the $14.6 billion at the ‘squeezed middle’ of home-owning and car-driving families with children in childcare, but leaves behind the ‘squashed bottom’ of young renters without kids or cars, along with beneficiaries and the disabled in particular. I covered the details in a breaking news email late on Wednesday morning.

* Childless and disabled beneficiaries who have to use buses and have to collect a lot of prescriptions would be the biggest losers from National’s plan, along with commercial property owners. The biggest winners would be ‘mum and dad’ rental property portfolio owners with a couple of double-cab utes and a boat that burns fuel. I wrote more about it Friday morning’s email.

* The Labour Government unveiled $4 billion worth of cuts to spending plans on Monday, including more than $200 million of cuts to climate emissions reductions spending that it didn’t tell Climate Change Minister James Shaw about first. I wrote about it in a breaking news email on Monday afternoon.

* The IMF said Aotearoa’s housing market was still 50% overvalued and warned the Government was on track to miss its Paris targets to cut emissions, which would lead to billions of dollars in emissions liabilities that should be included in the Crown Accounts. I wrote about it in Tuesday’s email, podcast and video.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the ominous debates brewing around co-governance on the election trail.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to raid the Climate Emergency Response Fund with a ‘climate dividend’ to pay for tax cuts.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about Ukraine’s breakthrough in its war with Russia and China’s border disputes with both India and China.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Parliamentary exchange of the week

Nicola Willis vs Grant Robertson in Question Time on Wednesday

Nicola Willis: Why can he always find funding for his pet projects but he repeatedly denies meaningful tax relief for the squeezed middle of New Zealand, slogging their guts out, being crushed by his cost of living crisis?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Because on this side of the House, we make sure that what we put in front of New Zealand is properly costed, adds up, and that we can pay for it. We're not relying on our promises for an increasing number of foreign speculators to buy a dwindling number of houses in our housing market—that's the kind of voodoo economics the member is currently presenting to New Zealanders.

Nicola Willis: Hasn't he lost all credibility when his books are in such a mess that he's been left scrambling for savings that, just two weeks ago, he said would amount to cuts; and isn't the reality here that this finance Minister has lost control and it's time for new economic management?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: We could take that lyrical expression from the member or we could take the view of an independent ratings agency who last night said that the New Zealand economy was in good health, had robust goverance standards, and a robust policy framework, and who supported the Government's strong track record of prudent financial management. So we could listen to "Trickola Willis" or we could listen to Fitch.

Nicola Willis: Why should Kiwis have confidence in a name-calling Minister of Finance when his big plan, his audacious idea for beating the cost of living crisis, is a few cents off some carrots?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: This Government, over the course of the last couple of years, has stood by New Zealanders as they have faced increased cost of living pressures. We've lifted the family tax credit. We've lifted benefits. We've lifted the childcare assistance rates. We've lifted the minimum wage. We've helped people stay in their jobs. That's the kind of real action that actually supports New Zealanders during a cost of living crisis. And every single one of those initiatives—opposed by the National Party. Via Hansard

Chart of the week

The profit driver in NZ’s inflation in the 18 months to end of 2022

Map of the week

South America had heat waves in the winter month of August

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Buses beyond the big cities

This week in my weekly podcast via The Spinoff, When The Facts Change, I spoke with Whanganui-based public transport advocate and award-winning singer-songerwriter Anthonie Tonnon about the low-hanging fruit of public transport improvements in smaller towns and cities in Aotearoa.

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And Apple Podcasts:

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* We launched The Kākā project for Election 2023 in Friday’s email.

* The Government agreed 50:50 funding deals with Auckland Council and Gisborne District Council to buy back land and repair infrastructure damaged by Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle in January and February. I wrote about it Thursday’s email titled: Making up our climate response as we go.

* National said it would shift away from fuel taxes to road user charges and congestion charges to pay to repair and build roads and public transport, but hasn’t worked out what removing the disincentive to burn fossil fuels and removing the incentive to drive electric cars would do to climate emissions or the Government’s finances. I wrote about it in Monday’s email.

* More evidence emerged on the open slather approach taken with migrant work visas in the last year. I wrote about it in Thursday’s email.

* A disturbing shift towards attack politics happened this week. I wrote about it in Friday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about National’s fundraising beating Labour by $7 to $1 early in the campaign.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard and Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the de-growth discussion on The Kākā this week, along with her five ideas to slash emissions and a look at the Government’s ad-hoc climate repair deals with Councils.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the apparent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin and what it might mean for Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about polarisation in politics and the expansion this week of the BRICS grouping to include Saudi Arabia and Iran, among others.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Quote of the week

What happens after you poll 29%

“We haven't been as negative or as critical about their approach. Maybe we should be a little more. We're going to be fighting back.” PM Chris Hipkins told reporters in Parliament as he described himself as the underdog now. Newshub

Charts of the week

Tipping points and feedback loops in our climate

Map of the week

Ships delayed on both sides of the drought-affected Panama Canal

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Steaming to 100% renewable

This week in my weekly podcast via The Spinoff, When The Facts Change, I poke with SolarZero CEO Matt Ward about why Aotearoa's solar power boom is closer than we think.

Sign up to follow this podcast at Spotify:

And Apple Podcasts:

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite ano

Bernard