The Hoon

TLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* All the key details from Budget 2023 on Thursday, where I travelled to Wellington for the Budget lockup and asked Finance Minister Grant Robertson about just how inflationary the Budget was. I also asked Housing Minister Megan Woods about why Labour is only planning one more year of state house building by Kainga Ora. Here’s more in Thursday’s Budget special email;

* My analysis of how the Budget’s net stimulus was worth around one percentage point of GDP, which is expected to add around 25 basis points to the Official Cash Rate to offset the official cash rate. Here’s more in Friday’s email;

* My analysis of how the Loafers Lodge fire exposed the extent of Aotearoa’s housing and poverty crises, how they’re not being fully addressed, and why. Here’s more in Thursday’s email;

* My look at how the fastest surge in net migration in our history is now putting extra upward pressure on interest rates, rents, house prices and still-underinvested infrastructure in the short run, and will put downward pressure on wages in our long-run ‘churn and burn’ political economy. Here’s more in Tuesday’s email;

* Analysis and charts on Christopher Luxon’s decision to rule out National governing with Te Pāti Māori and to sound a Don Brash-like ‘one person, one vote’ alarm appears to be painting his party’s and his own support into a more extremist and less popular corner with fewer pathways to governing after the October 14 election. Here’s more in Monday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’ (with two foxes watching)

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in London and special guests (plus two foxes loitering curiously in Peter’s garden!):

* CTU Economist Craig Renney about Budget 2023 and what the Reserve Bank should do when it decides on the Official Cash Rate again next Wednesday, where I’ll be travelling to Wellington again to ask Governor Adrian Orr questions in the news conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Statement.

* Founder of 2 Degrees and anti-monopoly activist (Monopoly Watch) Tex Edwards about the Government’s response this week to the Commerce Commission’s market study into building materials, and what any market study into banking should focus on;

* Mangawhai Pharmacist Lanny Wong (pictured below in a TVNZ Breakfast interview on May 1) from the Independent Community Pharmacy Group on the decision in Budget 2023 to remove the $5 prescription fee for all. I also campaigned against to remove the fee in this February email;

* Columnist for The Post-$$$ and Stuff, Josie Pagani, on National’s tone-deaf reaction to the removal of the $5 fee and Christopher Luxon’s problem with his (un)popularity.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

Gone by When the Lunchtime Facts Change - In this week’s When the facts change podcast for The Spinoff, I talked about Budget 2023 with Toby Manhire here.

And here’s my preview of the Budget on TVNZ’s Breakfast programme on Thursday morning. The interview was done outside and a Kaka swooped and squawked over my head just as the interview was starting.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s the most commented one this week:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* Migration stats showing annualised net migration running at well over 100,000, creating population growth of close to 2%, which is four times the rate the Stats NZ and Infrastructure NZ assume for long term population growth; Friday’s Chat

* Finance Minister Grant Robertson saying New Zealand couldn’t afford the $220 billion of spending needed to rectify past under-investment in infrastructure and cope with population growth of 0.5% per year, but simply stated we could handle current population growth of 2% per annum; Friday’s Chat

* Robertson saying the Government would fund cyclone repairs out of $4 billion of savings and under-spend identified elsewhere, and the Government’s top priority was fiscal restraint to take any pressure off inflation and interest rates; Thursday’s Chat

* Treasury figures showing how the Government’s backsliding on its Emissions Trading Scheme has blown an $800 million hole in its Budget, which was now running $2.5 billion behind forecasts because of slower tax receipts elsewhere as the economy slows; Wednesday’s email

* Christopher Luxon ruling out National coming to any governing arrangement with Te Pāti Māori, saying it was different to the one that governed with National from 2008 to 2017 in wanting separate institutional arrangements, while National wanted “one standard of citizenship, meaning one person, one vote”; Wednesday’s Chat

* PM Chris Hipkins as good as confirming a market study into banks would be announced before the election, with my analysis of what that market study should look at; Tuesday’s email and,

* A cascade of surveys and leaks showing the health system is on the brink of collapse just as the winter arrives, and just five months before the election. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in Spain and special guests:

* University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor Robert Patman about the US pivot away from the the ‘old’ globalisation/free markets ‘Washington Consensus’ to a new Consensus around green industrial policy and competing with China, plus the latest on Ukraine vs Russia;

* Former Retirement Commissioner Diana Crossan talking about a letter from more than 90 wealthy New Zealanders calling for higher taxes on the wealthy;

* Tax expert Terry Baucher on the structure of our tax system, the big gaps and how it could be filled.

The Hoon’s podcast version above is produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

The Toyota Corolla of house builders - Most new homes in Aotearoa are still built as individualised and bespoke things with a multitude of building materials, standard, building techniques and forms. It feels a lot like the early days of car manufacturing, when there were thousands of builders with many more thousands of models. Then along came Henry Ford and Toyota to standardise and mass produce to drive prices down and quality up. This week on When The Facts Change I talked with Simplicity Living MD Shane Brealey about how to build the Toyota Corolla of homes for two thirds the cost of other homes.

Peering back at Piggy - I spoke with podcaster Tom Leeman for his The Hated and The Dead series about Robert Muldoon.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s the most commented one:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* A screed of bank results showing yet more surges in net profit from the big four that dominate our economy and fuel our housing market, just as the Reserve Bank unveiled evidence the banks are too profitable, relative to the risk they take for shareholders. Friday’s email.

* The Reserve Bank reporting that those households with mortgages remain much less stressed than they were in the 2008 to 2015 period, thanks to almost half being ahead on their repayments and most still sitting on large equity gains built up over the last decade. Thursday’s email.

* Transport Minister Michael Wood announcing changes to the Government’s much-more-successful-than-expected Clean Car Discount scheme that he talked up as increasing emissions reductions and increasing rebates for used electric imports. But a closer look reveals a doubling of fees for double-cab utes such as the Ford Ranger and Toyota Hilux, a reduction in rebates for Teslas, and the removal of rebates for most small new and used petrol cars and hybrids, including hybrid used Toyota Aqua, Toyota Prius and Toyota Vitz, as well as the Suzuki Swift — all of which were being bought by poorer drivers. Tuesday’s email

* A survey of 150 pharmacists last month finding the $5 co-payment fee for prescriptions is leading to widespread distress, mental health incidents and unnecessary surgeries costing billions per year — all to earn the Government about $150 million a year in fees and to repay public debt just a tiny bit faster. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in Spain and special guests:

* Green MP Transport and Infrastructure Spokeswoman Julie-Anne Genter about railmageddons this week in Wellington and Auckland, the clean car discount changes, bank profits and a wealth tax;

* University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor Robert Patman about the drone strikes on the Kremlin, whether NZ should join Aukus Pillar II, Joe Biden’s trip to Sydney for the Quad in a couple of weeks, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta pushing back at Defence Minister Andrew Little and Deputy PM Carmel Sepuloni on Aukus II after being given a talking to by Chinese officials in Beijing last month. We refer Peter’s World Weekly Bulletin for The Spinoff here.

* Climate academic and Tohu Climate Policy Director David Hall about the political economy challenges for climate change policy in an election year, especially around the clean car discount changes, pine forests vs native forests, and public transport.

* Memiapublisher and tech futuristBen Reidabout the calls to suspend AI development (The Guardian) and the shock decision this week by Google’s AI leader Geoffrey Hinton to resign with a warning about the risks. (The Information Age).

The Hoon’s podcast version above is produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

One pathway to home-ownership - I interviewed Kiwibank’s Philippa Scott and Pip Maxwell about their new Co-own mortgages, which allow flatmates, brothers, sisters, cousins, and groups of friends to save, borrow and own houses together in ways that fit around modern family structures Wednesday afternoon in Wellington for When The Facts Change, my weekly podcast for The Spinoff.

This week’s Ask Me Anything

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* An Inland Revenue Department study of Aotearoa’s 311 wealthiest families with combined wealth of $85 billion and annual income in 2020/21 of $14.6 billion has found just seven percent of their income was taxed as personal taxable income that year because of the lack of a capital gains tax; Special report on Wednesday and Wednesday’s Dawn Chorus

* That meant their effective tax rate was 9.5% across all their income, even after calculating their payments of GST, which compares with an effective tax rate of 30% for a PAYE salary earner of $80,000 per year. Those 311 families alone would have paid $3.4 billion more in tax in 2020/21 if they had paid the same tax rate as middle-income New Zealanders; Special report on Wednesday and Wednesday’s Dawn Chorus

* PM Chris Hipkins hosed down talk of a Capital Gains, Wealth or Flood Levy tax in Budget 2023 on May 18, saying in a speech to business leaders he wanted to produce a ‘no-frills’ Budget that paid for flood repairs by cutting spending elsewhere and using unallocated spending announced in previous years. Thursday’s Dawn Chorus,

* Hipkins emphasised in his speech the Government’s focus was on getting inflation and interest rates down, while ramping up net migration to 100,000, which effectively put a floor under the housing market this week, along with lower long-term mortgage rates and a loosening of LVR rules announced by the Reserve Bank. Friday’s Dawn Chorus

* PM Chris Hipkins acknowledged the Government is flying blind on net migration to Australia after the weekend announcement of a four-year pathway to dual citizenship for the 300,000 New Zealanders living there since 2001 and the ones eyeing up going for bigger salaries and after-housing-cost disposable incomes; Monday’s Dawn Chorus

* Hipkins told reporters the figures couldn’t and haven’t been modelled, although he was still confident the much-more-assured pathway to citizenship would not increase the numbers of New Zealanders migrating to Australia, even though net migration of NZ residents trebled to over 1,000 a month in the year to the end of September.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in Oslo and special guests:

* Robert Patman from University of Otago, who came on from 5.10 pm to 5.25 pm to talk about the latest on Sudan, China vs US and AUKUS;

* Max Rashbrooke, who came on from 5.25 pm to 5.35 pm to talk about the IRD tax reports and the political reaction;

* Nick Goodall from Core Logic, who came on on from 5.35 pm to 5.45 pm to talk about the housing market and this week’s LVR news; and,

* Josie Pagani came on from 5.40 pm to 5.50 pm to talk about politics and tax, along with her column in The Post.

Peter and I also talked about the news in geopolitics this week, including Hugh Grant saying in court that Rupert Murdoch’s The Sun broke into his flat (The Guardian) The Hoon podcast version is produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

An interview with David Parker - I interviewed Revenue Minister David Parker on Wednesday afternoon in Wellington for When The Facts Change, my weekly podcast for The Spinoff.

I was on TVNZ’s Breakfast show on Friday on Hipkins’ Budget speech

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy covered on The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* Council staff in Wellington going rogue on their council, quietly reinserted 797 villas into the Council’s district plan, despite express instructions from Council after a heated debate and vote last year that character zones stopping building be cut by 72%; Monday’s email

* A law change designed to tighten the number of free carbon credits allocated to major polluters could instead allow them to emit more carbon for free; Tuesday’s email

* The IRD confirmed the release next Wednesday of much better wealth data and a speech on wealth and income from Revenue Minister David Parker; Wednesday’s email

* Auckland Transport, at the behest of Mayor Wayne Brown, abandoned a long-running drive for special powers to remove kerbside parking for things like cycleways and has dropped a proposal to charge at park-and-ride stations; Thursday’s email

* The Government, which still says it is treating emissions reduction as a climate emergency and a nuclear-free moment, defended its decision to allow NZ Steel to extend the consent on its Glenbrook steel mill until 2046 without the Auckland Council having to consider climate change in the consent process. Friday’s email.

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

Going wider for new workers - Employers are struggling to replace staff of all skill levels and the Reserve Bank says it has no choice but to hike interest rates because it says the economy is at full employment. But in this week’s When The Facts Change, I challenged that assumption in an interview with Autism NZ CEO Dane Dougan about the thousands of workers unnecessarily unemployed because of their autism, and how to change that.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in Perugia (!) and special guests:

* Merja Myllylahti from AUT on this week’s dramas in media globally, including Fox News’ defamation settlement payout and non-apology for lying about US election fraud and her Trust in News survey (more here) from 5.20pm to 5.40 pm; and,

* Christina Hood from Compass Climate to talk about the Climate Commission’s advice to the Government to actually reduce emissions from 5.40 to 5.50 pm. 

Peter and I also talked about the news in geopolitics this week, including the beginning of spring offensives in Ukraine and the new civil war in Sudan. The Hoon podcast version is produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy covered on The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* Treasury estimating the Government could have to spend from $3 billion to $24 billion buying carbon credits overseas to meet our Paris climate obligations, depending on the scale of our failure to reduce emissions enough and carbon prices; Tuesday’s email

* The Government loosening migration settings dramatically in a last-minute attempt to stop a systemic health system crisis turning into a catastrophe over the winter; Wednesday’s email

* The Government turning Three Waters into 10 Waters, extending co-governance and balance sheet separation in a way that gives Councils a bit more say, but takes $1.5 billion in ‘better off’ compensation off them; Thursday’s morning email and a Three Waters special in the afternoon; plus,

* The Government allowing Auckland City to delay the implementation of housing densification rules by a year because of bad weather. Friday’s email

Here’s our Notes launch special offer that ends later today.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale and special guests:

* Robert Patmanfrom the University of Otago from 5.10 pm to 5.30 pm or so on China practicing a Taiwan blockade, Emmanuel Macron’s China controversial comments, NZ getting closer to NATO and the Pentagon leaks;

* Rebecca Peer, a climate engineering researcher from the University of Canterbury, from 5.30 pm to 5.40 pm on the Climate Commission’s advice to the Government to actually reduce emissions and Treasury’s estimate of a $3-24b climate liability;

* BusinessDesk-$$$ columnist Dileepa Fonseka on his (paywalled) piece detailing the loss of gaming developers to Australia and a massive missed opportunity during the lockdowns to embed global gaming maestro Gabe Newell in New Zealand as a resident. 

Peter and I also talked about the Three Waters reforms and Rupert Murdoch.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I appeared a a commentator for 1News as a commentator on Three Waters. I also produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on:

The task of a generation - Aotearoa needs to double the size of its electricity industry over the next 30 years to meet our emissions reductions targets. We've done it before in 1945 to 1985 but can we do it again? With a myriad of privately and publicly owned companies waiting for market and regulatory signals, it seems unlikely. In the latest episode of my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for all via The Spinoff, I talked with electricity expert John Hancock about the prospects of doubling our power industry again.

Long story short? I think it’s going to be much harder now the ownership of these assets is so much more dispersed than from 1945 to 1985. We now have listed gentailers plus private gentailers plus private lines companies plus public-but-not-Crown-owned lines companies vs all-Crown control from 1945 to 1985. John thinks it can be done because there’s plenty of private capital wanting in on the growth.

Scoops elsewhere this week

What’s the point again? - The hydro-battery at Lake Onslow won't be commissioned until late 2037 and could take another one to three years to fill to maximum capacity, Marc Daalder reported for Newsroom from this MBIE business case document.

Wondering why food inflation is so high? - Forty six small to medium food suppliers to both Foodstuffs and Countdown told Newshub’s Janika Ter Allen last night the supermarkets are making gross profit margins of up to 55% on their products.

Chart of the week

‘It’s actually too expensive NOT too reduce emissions’

Treasury/MoE report

Quotes of the week

‘Job done…’

"I think we've nailed it. Honestly, there's a balance to strike here." Kieran McAnulty after announcing reforms to the Three Waters reforms that increased the costs, reduced the benefits, left in place co-governance and did not change balance sheet separation.

‘Yeah…nah’

“So we get $30m for $7 billion worth of assets? What an absolute crock, the whole thing.” Christchurch City Councillor Sam MacDonald.

‘What about the money you promised us’

“It's a significant change. We’d like to understand why that ‘Better Off’ funding has now been removed. The only sweetener and carrot that was there is now no longer on the table.” Waimakariri Mayor Dan Gordon on the removal of $1.5 billion of ‘Better Off’ funding, which was not mentioned in the news conference.

‘Don’t make me angry, you wouldn’t like me when I’m angry…’

“I threaten to go feral later in the year if we don’t get some marching (to Auckland) from both of the two parties, because neither of them is particularly strong on what they are going to do for the benefit of Auckland.” Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown on why he expects political parties to offer good policies for Auckland in a speech this week. NZ Herald

My weekend reading, watching & listening suggestions for paying subscribers

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy covered on The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* revelations that the Reserve Bank (Te Pūtea Matua) is paying billions per year in interest to the big four Australian-owned banks, as well as providing $19 billion of subsidised loans to them at a time when the Government more broadly is refusing requests for extra spending on health, education, transport and welfare (Monday’s email);

* Reserve Bank analysis released this week showed 25% of Auckland homes with mortgages could be affected by rising sea levels and/or a 1-in-100 year type of storm, with some vulnerable to a complete wipeout of their values (Tuesday’s email);

* the Government backtracked on various climate pledges as it battens down its ‘costs of living’ hatches before the election, including inviting oil and gas explorers to submit more bids for drilling onshore and quietly not introducing emissions standards to improve engine efficiency and vehicle safety for six years (Thursday’s email); and,

* the Government announced five options for an earlier second crossing/s (either or both a tunnel or bridge) of the Waitematā harbour that prioritise cars, could cost $25 billion and would significantly increase climate emissions during their building and/or drilling (Friday’s email).

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale and special guests:

* Robert Patmanfrom the University of Otago about New Zealand joining Aukus-lite and the dramas in Israel from 5.15 to 5.30pm;

* University of Victoria Public Policy academic Andrew Ecclestone about the need to regulate lobbyists and revolving doors for bureaucrats, politicians and political operatives, along with the need for OIA reform in the wake of Stuart Nash’s departure from Cabinet from 5.30 to 5.45pm; and,

* Simplicity CEO Sam Stubbs talking about Simplicity Living’s big house building plans, starting in Auckland, and banks receiving billions of subsidies from the Government from 5.45 to 5.55pm.

Peter and I also talked about the demise of TodayFM and Donald Trump’s indictment early in the show, and Peter introduced his cousin’s dog Banjo to the audience at the end. Cute dog.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on: The climate landmine in your letter box.

Cyclone Gabrielle suddenly showed us the life savings invested in the land under a home can dissolve as soon as an insurer decides to reprice or pull their insurance. I talked to insurance and banking academic Dr Michael Naylor from Massey University about how insurers are rapidly repricing for flood risk in a warming climate, and how that’s creating a Wild West for home buyers hoping to know if their life savings will dissolve too.

This week’s scoops elsewhere

Guyon Espiner’s ‘Mate, comrade, brother’ series of articles and videos for RNZ last week and early this week on the activities of lobbyists with the Labour Government and the need for regulation was essential reading.

Kirsty Johnson reported for Stuff yesterday on how the Government had changed the law about compensation for wrongful convictions for those who had served home detention sentences, after her earlier reporting on the issue.

Luke Malpass reported for Stuff on Tuesday from an email that showed Stuart Nash leaked details of a Cabinet decision to a donor, Troy Bowker, prompting PM Chris Hipkins to immediately sack Nash and launch an inquiry.

Pete McKenzie reported for Newsroom on Thursday about how his 2021 requests for all emails between Nash and his donors led to the exclusion of the smoking gun email, potentially in breach of the law and with the knowledge of the office of PM Jacinda Ardern, but not necessarily the PM herself.

Jenee Tibshraeny reported for NZ Herald-$$$ from documents obtained under the OIA about how the Reserve Bank is paying billions in interest to banks and how Grant Robertson had asked to see whether the Reserve Bank could cut back on that.

Marc Daalder reported for Newsroom on Wednesday about how the Government quietly sat on proposals to improve engine efficiency and car efficiency standards for six years at a potential cost of billions to the country and thousands of tonnes of extra climate emissions.

Charts of the week

Quotes of the week

‘Hey mate…’

“Stuart Nash and discretion are not words that get used together much in the same sentence,” Troy Bowker said of Stuart Nash, via BusinessDesk-$$$ this morning, albeit after saying he still liked Nash as a friend.

‘I have some breaking news…’

“They have f*cked us. And we’re all going to lose our jobs.” Tova O’Brien revealing on-air on Thursday morning that MediaWorks was shutting TodayFM.

Profundities, spookies, curiousities and feel-goods

Cartoons of the week

The Craic

Fun things

Ka kite ano

Bernard

Thank you for reading The Kākā by Bernard Hickey. This post is public so feel free to share it.

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy covered on The Kākā included:

* The runs on Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank on the west coast of the United States that forced the US Treasury, FDIC and Federal Reserve to intervene to promise full payouts to depositors, over and above the US$250,000 deposit guarantees legislated for, and lend tens of billions to banks to keep them liquid (Wednesday’s email and podcast);

* The orchestrated rescue and takeover of Credit Suisse last weekend by Swiss authorities working together in a frantic effort with UBS to stop the Swiss banking system from collapsing (Wednesday’s email and podcast);

* Rate hikes in the United States, Britain, Switzerland and Norway, but a softening of market interest rate expectations because of the banking crises (Wednesday’s email and podcast);

* Statistics showing little improvement in Aotearoa’s child poverty rates and a worsening of the stress on renters, even more so than the stress on mortgage payers (Friday’s email and podcast);

* A call from the Consumer Advocacy Council Chair Deborah Hart for an inquiry into bundling by gentailers of deals on broadband and gas, which she said may restrict competition by making it harder for customers to compare and switch providers (Thursday’s email and podcast).

* Reserve Bank (Te Matua Putea) Chief Economist Paul Conway’s fresh warning to firms and workers not to push for higher real wages and profits in anticipation of higher inflation (Friday’s email and podcast);

* Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s casting vote for Auckland Council to pull out of LGNZ (Friday’s email and podcast); and,

* TOP’s launch of a Teal Card and plan to stay out of ministerial roles and not agree to both supply and confidence for either of the main parties (Tuesday’s email and podcast). I also wrote about the Greens’ electoral strategy and performance in Monday’s email and podcast and talk about it with Green MP Julie-Anne Genter in this week’s bonus When The Facts Change podcast episode via The Spinoff.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’ this week

In this week’s podcast of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night (which you can find up the top of this post) I talked with co-host Peter Bale and political science professorsRobert Patman from the University of Otago and Bronwyn Hayward from the University of Canterbury about:

* Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meeting in Moscow, along with the latest news and views of AUKUS’ military aspirations and Aotearoa’s adjacency to those;

* Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and how close Xi actually is (or not) to Putin;

* this week’s UN IPCC report warning climate emissions would need to be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming was to be limited to 1.5°C; and,

* this week’s review of the Emissions Trading Scheme announced by the Ministry for the Environment.

We also talked with Natalia Antelava, the Tblisi-based editor-in-chief and co-founder of Codastory about living in Georgia, a nation trying to exist under the shadow of Russia. She also produces the Undercurrents podcast for Audible here, which is about the struggle between tech, democracy, and dictatorship.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on how the Government’s policy bonfire blew up the ETS, and there’s that bonus episode above with Julie-Anne Genter.

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Scoops elsewhere this week

Chart of the week

Almost a quarter of NZ renters spend over 40% of income on rent

Quote of the week

‘I’m leaving the team because I’m more important than the rest of you’

“I’ve always felt that if you’re on your own, they (government) have to come and see us. They need us more than we need them.” Mayor Wayne Brown’s justification for voting this week to pull Auckland Council out of LGNZ.

Profundities, spookies, curiousities and feel-goods

Longer reads and listens for the weekend

Here’s a few useful longer reads, scoops and podcasts for paying subscribers for the weekend.

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and the political economy covered on The Kākā included:

* PM Chris Hipkins’ announcement of the rest of a policy bonfire to save a combined $1.7 billion, but which blew up the Emissions Trading Scheme (Thursday’s email), upset the Greens and was overshadowed somewhat by Stuart Nash’s resignation as Police Minister, but not as Economic Development, Forestry and Oceans Minister (Tuesday’s email);

* the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the collapse in the share price of Credit Suisse has renewed nerves about the Global Financial System, and shows the fast rate hikes of the last year may not be sustainable if they endanger bank stability Monday’s email;

* a new report showed the new RMA could generate new carbon liabilities of up to $16 billion because of consenting delays (Friday’s email); and,

* Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s budget cuts came under fire, justifiably, from those arguing the so-called ‘fiscal hole’ and debt crisis is not a hole or a crisis (Wednesday’s email).

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale and special guests TOP Party Leader Raf Manji, National Finance Spokesperson and Deputy Leader Nicola Willis and Green MP Chloe Swarbrick about:

* PM Chris Hipkins’ bonfire of the policies on Monday, which blew up the ETS;

* the bank crises that broke out in the United States and Europe this week;

* Labour’s rejection of a select committee inquiry into bank competition; and,

* the Better Budget Auckland challenge to Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s austerity approach.

Peter and I also talked about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ‘great wall of steel’ speech, former Australian PM Paul Keating’s tour-de-force rejection of AUKUS’ submarine deal and the latest drama in the Black Sea when Russian jets ‘collided’ with an American drone.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on Why Auckland Council should just use its balance sheet and borrow to deal with lower revenues because of the covid and flood crises. I spoke to BetterBudgetAuckland’s India Logan-Riley about how Mayor Wayne Brown’s spending cuts were hurting Auckland’s most vulnerable, and what the alternatives should be.

Charts of the week

What the Fed’s latest rescue of rich savers looks like

There’s more detail on that US Federal Reserve action here in this Bloomberg article.

All told, the emergency loans reversed around half of the balance-sheet shrinkage that the Fed has achieved since it began so-called quantitative tightening — allowing its portfolio of assets to run down — in June last year. And the central bank’s reserve balances jumped by some $440 billion in a week — which “basically reversed all the Fed’s QT efforts,” according to Capital Economics.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated $2 trillion as an upper level for how much liquidity the new backstop could ultimately provide, although they also developed a smaller calculation of around $460 billion based on the amount of uninsured deposits at six US banks that have the highest ratio of uninsured deposits over total deposits. Bloomberg article

Quotes of the week

A loose goose calls a rail project a duck

“Light rail is a dead duck mate, let’s be real.” Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown telling NewstalkZB he didn’t want the Auckland Council to have to pay half of the new $5.493b cost for the City Rail Link, after its cost estimate rose by $1.074b to $5.493b this week.

Wayne Brown plans to ‘leverage’ the Crown to pay > 50% of CRL

“I’m a trader and I’m in there to trade. I’ve got $1b to pay for the weather. I’ve got a budget blowout bequest to me by the new High Commissioner to England.”

Brown also said he wanted to hand a “whole bunch of things back to the Government”, including the Citizen’s Advice Bureau, which he might try to leverage his way out of.

“I don’t see why ratepayers should be fixing people’s marriages, that’s something that should go back to the Government.” Wayne Brown via NewstalkZB

Cartoons of the week

Profundities, spookies, curiousities and feel-goods

Longer reads and listens for the weekend

Here’s a few useful longer reads, scoops and podcasts for paying subscribers for the weekend.

TLDR: This week’s news in geo-politics and the political economy covered on The Kākā included:

* National proposed a select committee inquiry into bank profits, which prompted the Government to say it was considering a full market study of the banking sector by the Commerce Commission (Thursday’s email);

* National proposed allowing easier foreign investment in build-to-rent projects and allowing owners to claim depreciation, as student accommodation, retirement villages and others can now;

* Transport Minister Michael Wood was forced to downplay the role of emissions reduction in his transport strategy after the Opposition criticised the prospect of fuel tax money being used for buses, cycleways and walkways instead of road repairs (Tuesday’s email);

* A survey commissioned by the Ministry of Transport found most young people in cities would prefer revenues from new wealth, congestion or pollution taxes be used to improve public transport, walking and cycling, while most older voters don’t want any of those taxes, and instead want their existing fuel taxes used to repair roads, rather than subsidise emissions reduction. (Wednesday’s email)

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale and special guests Robert Patman and Crockers CEO Helen O’Sullivan about:

* Michael Wood’s about-face on a new transport policy prioritising emissions reductions;

* the Labour Government finally deciding to look at doing a market study of bank profits after the Reserve Bank suggested it would like one and the Opposition called for a short and sharp Parliamentary Select Committee inquiry into bank competition;

* National proposed allowing easier foreign investment in build-to-rent projects and allowing owners to claim depreciation, as student accommodation, retirement villages and others can;

* China’s warnings of war if the United States keeps trying to contain China;

* Australia agreeing to buy five US nuclear submarines, which China doesn’t like;

* China accusing New Zealand of jumping at shadows over accusations an analyst in Wellington passed on information to China’s security services, which the analyst has denied; and,

* More intrigue around the Nordstream explosions.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on turning grass into ngahere.

Our emissions trading scheme incentivises sheep and beef farmers on marginal land to sell or lease it to pine foresters for carbon credits. It’s a classically bad unintended consequence of a policy that is supposed to improve the environment.

Instead, the slash and silt unleashed from those plantations wrecked rich horticultural land down in the valleys in Gabrielle. I talked to farmers John Burke and Alison Dewes about other ways to change land use that is much healthier and more profitable in the long run, including retiring that land into ngahere and wetlands that will thrive in a changing climate and protect other farms down stream how rising corporate profit margins are fuelling a profit-price spiral here and overseas.

Longer reads and listens for the weekend

Here’s a few useful longer reads, scoops and podcasts for paying subscribers for the weekend.