The Hoon

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Reports emerging that hundreds of migrants on new Accredited Employer Work Visas paid as much as $30,000 for their visas, only to find no work and ending up stranded in overcrowded rentals. Eventually, after weeks of denial, Immigration Minister Andrew Little launched a ministerial inquiry into Immigration NZ’s operation of the scheme, effectively throwing the ministry under the bus over Labour’s rushed loosening of migration settings last year. See more in Tuesday’s email and Friday’s email

* Labour released its tax policy for the election, including removing GST from fresh and frozen fruit and veges, but not other forms of food. It also tweaked Working For Families settings, albeit insufficiently and too narrowly to provide the necessary help for those most in need. See more Monday’s email.

* Labour released its transport policy in the form its Government Policy Statement (GPS) for the next three years for Waka Kotahi (NZTA), which pivoted to spending more on road repairs, new motorways and bridges, and away from focusing mostly on expanding light rail, improving safety and reducing emissions. We spoke about this more with Cathrine Dyer in the first 10 minutes of Friday night’s Hoon in the podcast above.

* The Labour Government and Climate Change Minister James Shaw announced the opening of consultation and a Select Committee Inquiry for a Climate Change Adaptation Act, which is designed to settle questions around how to manage and fund retreat from land likely to be deemed unlivable due to climate change. We talked with Cathrine Dyer in the Hoon about how the consultation conveniently obscured some of the more radical and necessary suggestions contained in a ministerial options paper and an officials’ technical report.

* The Labour Government announced delays in measuring and pricing on-farm climate emissions until well after the election. We talked more about this on the Hoon with Cathrine.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about politicians in the debating chamber and the Koru Lounge.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard and Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about Labour’s policies on transport, climate adaptation and farm emissions.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about fresh hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East, the latest dramas in the Ukraine War and the troubles inside China’s economy.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the timidity of policy proposals by both parties, about National’s massive billboard advantage over Labour up and down the country, and how Labour’s low-energy campaign might hurt it.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Quote of the week

An accreditation scheme where documents were not checked

"It's been happening under everybody's nose. Everybody knows about it. I know about it. Agents know about it. Lawyers know about it. The only people who didn't know about it, clearly, are the three ministers.

"The review will find that there has been a general instruction delivered by Immigration New Zealand which says 'stop verifying documentation'. I can tell the minister that in five minutes, he doesn't need a review." National Immigration spokesperson Erica Stanford via RNZ

Chart of the week

What should be on the front pages of all today’s papers

Map of the week

Three years of rain expected in a day or two

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Steaming to 100% renewable

This week in my weekly podcast via The Spinoff, When The Facts Change, I spoke with CoGo founder Ben Gleisner about the potential to use bank data on spending to help businesses and consumers monitor and tweak their climate emissions. Gleisner talks about Aotearoa’s rocky and long pathway to open banking and the options for a type of ‘nudge’ economy towards decarbonisation.

Sign up to follow this podcast at Spotify:

And Apple Podcasts:

We also produce this daily podcast, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

One fun thing

This Michael Parkinson interview with David Bowie is lovely

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The Kaka’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer reported on how banks’ and insurers’ models of climate change’s financial impacts underplay massively the likely costs and risks of rises in temperatures of over two degrees, relative to the latest modeling of climate scientists and actual damages from recent weather events. Friday’s hoon above.

* The Labour Government unveiled a plan to build a road tunnel and a rail tunnel under the Waitemata harbour over an indeterminate number of decades for a cost of about $45 billion, including plans to build the road tunnels first in a politically expedient way that prioritises drivers over emissions reduction and risks blowing the real costs out to over $65 billion once the cost of buying emissions credits is taken into account. Monday’s email.

* The Government announced the fast-tracking of consents for solar and wind farms that could, in theory, produce 3.5 times as much as the Clyde Dam can generate, but consents worth twice that amount have been granted and not actually built in the last two decades because the state-controlled gentailers fear building extra capacity will dilute prices and profits. Tuesday’s email.

* PM Chris Hipkins and Energy Minister Megan Woods staged an announcement by BlackRock of a $2 billion fund for renewable investments aimed at lifting Aotearoa’s renewable share of electricity generation from under 90% currently to 100% by 2030, but the ‘partnership’ involved no declared Government investments in the fund or promises to invest in any state-controlled assets, meaning it was a performative cross-promotional exercise designed to lead TV news bulletins, which it did. Woods and Hipkins acknowledged to my questions in a news conference that uncertainty about the future of the Tiwai Point smelter and the still-undecided issue of how to use hydro or other batteries to deal with our ‘dry year’ issue was holding back investment in the generation and transmission lines needed to achieve the 100% target, or convert our transport fleet and industrial coal boilers to electricity in a way that reduces our $20 billion-plus emissions credits liability. Friday’s hoon above and RNZ’s First Up

* The Security Intelligence Service published its first threat assessment statement on Friday, taking the unprecedented step of naming China, Russia and Iran as engaging in espionage and foreign interference against New Zealand.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.25 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with The Kākā’s new correspondent Cathrine Dyer with a discussion about Aotearoa’s banks and insurers were underestimating the risks and damage of climate change of over 2 degrees celsius.

* 5.25 pm - 5.35 pm - BCG Principal Richard Hobbs spoke about his recent paper on supercharging New Zealand’s transition to net zero emissions, and debated with Cathrine, Bernard and Peter about the idea of degrowth.

* 5.35 - 5.50 pm - Stuff Pou Tiakia Matua Carmen Parahi talked with Bernard and Peter about a hui this week in Auckland about the media and Te Ao Maori.

* 5.50 - 6.05 pm - Bernard, Peter and Carmen wraped the show with a discussion of the week in politics with columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, including her latest column on the need for politicians to come up big ideas.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey. Unfortunately, Robert Patman was unable to make it on the show this week, contrary to the invitation to join the hoon. He was talking with diplomats.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

What should be on the front pages of all today’s papers

Map of the week

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Steaming to 100% renewable

This week in my weekly podcast via The Spinoff, When The Facts Change, I spoke with GEOBIND co-founder Alice Hosted about how Aotearoa could help solve its housing cost and carbon problems by using hempcrete walls. We discussed the pros and cons of using hemp in building construction, and the current logistical frameworks that restrict its use.

I talked about the BlackRock fund announcement on RNZ’s First Up programme with Nathan Rarere on Wednesday morning.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The Opposition suggested this week the Labour Government’s books had fallen into a $20 billion ‘fiscal black hole’. I wrote and podcasted about how this claim was wrong and irresponsible in Friday’s email.

* National proposed building $18 billion worth of new motorways if elected on October 14, using funds repurposed from public transport investment and road safety campaigns, along with private investment (possibly from China) and tolls on new roads. ACT said it wanted to toll existing roads too. Thursday’s email, Monday’s email and Tuesday’s email.

* The Labour Government expanded its Progressive Home Ownership scheme for first home buyers from only new homes to existing homes, and lifted the income cap, thus adding to buying demand for the existing stock in a way that boosts prices and pleases median-voting home owners wanting more capital gains and help getting their kids into homes. Monday’s email.

* PM Chris Hipkins unveiled the Government’s new Defence and Security strategies, which highlight the main risks as climate change and strategic competition and suggested more defence spending without promises or details. Friday’s Hoon above.

* The planet warmed in July to an average of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial era temperatures for the first month ever, and many years before modellers said it was possible as El Nino and warming seas drove temperatures in parts of Latin America to over 35 degrees celcius, even though it is technically winter. Friday’s Hoon above.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.15 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a summary of the news domestically and internationally, including the latest on the string of climate records and research in a chat with The Kākā’s new correspondent Cathrine Dyer.

* 5.15 pm - 5.35 pm - University of Otago ProfessorRobert Patman

about the Government’s new security strategy announced on Friday and comments from former Labour PM Helen Clark questioning the role of officials.

* 5.35 - 6pm - Bernard and Peter wrap the show with a discussion of the week in politics with columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

What should be on the front pages of all today’s papers

Map of the week

And leading TV news bulletins: 38.9 degrees C in Chile in winter

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Steaming to 100% renewable

This week in my weekly podcast, When The Facts Change, I drilled a long way down into the future of geothermal electricity production in an interview with Isabelle Chambefort from GNS Science. She’s excited about the potential for deep drilling to uncover ‘supercritical’ heat that supercharges geothermal power output, helping solve the dry year problem bedevilling our hydro-dominated power system.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* David Parker’s decision to give up the Revenue portfolio after PM Chris Hipkins’ ruled out the wealth tax switch he and Grant Robertson put together for Budget 2023. Wednesday’s email

* Kiri Allan’s resignation as Justice Minister and decision not stand for re-election in the East Coast electorate after she was arrested on Sunday night and charged with careless use of a motor vehicle and refusing to accompany a police officer. Monday’s email

* The torching of a 48-home Kainga Ora housing development in East Tamaki on Monday night that Police and the Fire Service are investigating as suspicious, after angry protests by neighbours worried it would lower their property values. Friday’s email.

* The publishing of a paper in Nature suggesting an early collapse of a key North Atlantic sea current because of climate change. Friday’s post from new correspondent Cathrine Dyer.

* Te Pāti Māori announcing a suite of wealth taxes and income tax changes to pay for a tax cut for the bottom 90% of income earners, alongside Labour appearing set to announce a policy of taking GST off fresh food. Friday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.15 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a summary of the news domestically and internationally, including the latest on the string of climate records in Europe and elsewhere, and more on a concerning new paper predicting an early collapse of the AMOC in a chat with The Kākā’s new correspondent Cathrine Dyer.

* 5.15 pm - 5.35 pm - University of Otago ProfessorRobert Patman

about how damaging the replacement of President Xi Jinping’s foreign minister is for China and the outcomes of visits to Aotearoa by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Australian PM Anthony Albanese.

* 5.35 - 6pm - Bernard and Peter wrap the show with a discussion of the week in politics with columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

This week in my weekly podcast, When The Facts Change, I looked at open banking. I talked with Josh Daniell at FinTech firm Akahu about what’s being done in Aotearoa to accelerate the move to open banking, something already well advanced in Europe, the UK and Australia.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that I wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The revelation that 480 families are living in cars. Friday’s email

* Detail emerged about the thousands of low-skilled temporary workers given high-skilled work visas under the new ‘reset’ immigration policy. Thursday’s email

* Both National and Labour released performative and gimmicky policies on crime and KiwiSaver that leave the core crises of housing, climate and poverty unaddressed. Tuesday’s email.

* The Government decided during the Budget process against providing more cash help for poorer families because it preferred a lower deficit, lower debt and lower interest rates. Monday’s email.

* Temperatures soared to record highs day after day all around the world, raising fears the climate has already started triggering tipping points that cascade together into runaway warming. This Hoon.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a summary of the news domestically and internationally, including the latest on the politics of crime and the introduction The Kākā’s new correspondent Cathrine Dyer.

* 5.05 pm - 5.15 pm - A discussion on the latest extraordinary events with the climate with Cathrine Dyer.

* 5.15 pm - 5.30 pm - University of Otago ProfessorRobert Patman

on the missing Chinese foreign minister, Russia pulling out of its deal to allow safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and the upcoming visits to Aotearoa by Anthony Albanese and Anthony Blinken.

* 5.50 - 6pm - Bernard and Peter wrap the show with more of a discussion about solutions journalism.

* The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

Te Ao Māori’s big capital challenge and opportunity - I talked with Kiwibank’s Head of Māori advisory Teaho Pihama in this week’s When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about how Te Ao Māori can build all its capitals in an economy powered by mortgages secured against freehold land that are owned by individuals, when Te ao Māori views whenua is a totally different way.

Ka kite ano

My apologies for lateness this week. Was travelling this weekend.

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that I wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers this week included:

* PM Chris Hipkins ruling out a wealth or capital gains tax for his time as PM Friday’s email;

* two political opinion polls showing support for Labour dropping, which is increasing the chances of a National/ACT victory in the General Election on October 14, or a hung parliament Thursday’s email and Friday’s email;

* statistics showing nearly 3,000 New Zealanders a month are migrating to Australia, more than double the number a year ago and the highest in 10 years – also recently-arrived residents are bouncing on to Australia at a higher rate than the rest of the population, now Australia has opened the door fully for New Zealand residents to become full citizens Friday’s email;

* New Zealand signed a trade agreement with the European Union that writes in a commitment to meet our Paris Accord emissions reductions or face trade sanctions for the first time Monday’s email; and

* a highly-respected central banker in Britain called on western governments to raise taxes on the wealthy to help central banks cool down inflation Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ last night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.15 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a summary of the news domestically and internationally, including a chat about the wealth tax article.

* 5.15 pm - 5.35 pm - University of Otago Professor Robert Patman talked about the grumpy Chinese reaction to Hipkins’ speech on security policy at NATO, along with a closer look at the Ukraine war.

* 5.35 pm - 5.55 pm - Walkleys Senior Manager for Programs and Education Corinne Podger on solutions journalism.

* 5.55 - 6pm - Bernard and Peter wrapped the show with a chat about plans for election coverage, with 95 days to go.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

What does a just transition look like? - This week on When The Facts Change on The Spinoff, I talked to Troy Baisden from the University of Auckland and Catherine Leining from Motu about their guide to achieving a just transition in Aotearoa that was released this week. They say it won’t be easy and won’t work without lots of early talk and solutions from both the top down and the bottom up.

Why Labour ruled out a wealth tax - I talked about Hipkins ruling out a wealth tax on RNZ’s First Up with Nathan Rarere.

Quote of the week

“NZ used to be a property owning democracy – now it is a property-OWNERS’ democracy.” Comment from a subscriber via email to me.

Chart of the week

Almost half of UK first home buyers need parental help

Milestones

Most deadly heatwave - European health institutes estimated that more than 61,600 people died from heat-related causes across 35 European countries from late May to early September 2022, during Europe's hottest summer on record. Reuters

‘Too hot (and stormy) for us’ - Farmers Insurance announced this week it was pulling out of covering homes and cars for over 100,000 customers in the state of Florida to “to effectively manage risk exposure.” CBS News

People moves

Coming back quietly - Hipkins announced Kiri Allan would return to work on Monday and resume her full duties as a minister. “When she returns to work Kiri will receive extra coaching to support her to create the positive working environment both of us are committed to," Hipkins said.

(Very profitable) musical chairs - Former Mercury CEO and Transpower CEO Patrick Strange stepped down as a director of Mercury Energy. Former Meridian Energy CEO and Fletcher Building Construction CEO Mark Binns was appointed as a director of Mercury, along with former Auckland Airport CEO Adrian Littlewood.

When you get it wrong publicly - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe was not reappointed for a new term after he incorrectly reassured Australians their mortgage rates wouldn’t rise for years. He is being replaced by his deputy, Michele Bullock, who will be the first women to head the RBA.

Supplier turned gamekeeper - The Government announced the appointment of Pierre van Heerden as the Grocery Commissioner for a five-year term. Van Heerden was the General Manager of Sanitarium Health and the Chair of the Food and Grocery Council, which represents suppliers, from 2012 to 2016.

Power switched - The Government appointed former journalist and PR person Anna Kominik as the new chair of the Electricity Authority (EA) for a five-year term to replace Nicola Crauford, who lasted just three years. Kominik had been the chair of the Electricity Retailers' Association, having now resigned that role.

One-term ACT MP Damien Smith announced he would not seek re-election.

Reports, reviews and academic papers of the week

Michael Heron KC has issued a scathing official review of dawn raids this year of over-stayers from the Pacific Island in the wake of PM Jacinda Ardern's 2021 apology for dawn raids in the 1970s.

The business-backed thinktank, the NZ Initiative, published a 20-page report recommending more widespread use of Business Improvement Districts and special purpose bonds to fund smaller local infrastructure.

The Consumer Advocacy Council, that was set up after the May 2019 Electricity Price Review, concluded in a 46 page report the EA had not done a good enough job protecting consumers.

MFAT released its once-every-three-years Strategic Foreign Policy Assessment in a 36-page report.

Comment of the week

On Hipkins ruling out CGT

So totally depressing. New Zealanders will not grasp the epic failure of our lack of CGT policy. De facto, we're the sixth Australian state exporting our young people to the other five, who will mostly never return. For the price of a modest airfare they can buy socioeconomic mobility and hope. Labor is going to lose this election anyway, they could have stood for something historically critical for New Zealand's future, instead they've cringed and whimpered and let everybody down. It's harsh I know, but I call cowardice. Tony Laver comment in the ‘Jump on the Hoon post.

Chat thread of the week

A fun thing

Gurdeep Pandher of the Yukon has some advice

It's normal to feel anxious when we're uncertain, but excessive worrying can harm our well-being. To manage anxiety, practice daily breathing exercises and gratitude. Aim to balance your worries with taking actionable steps towards progress and work towards building trust. These simple practices can help you lead a more fulfilling and peaceful life. Keep it up! Gurdeep Pandher of the Yukon via Twitter

Ka kite ano

Have a great weekend

Bernard

TLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for subscribers included:

* The Opposition’s reckless talk about a ‘mortgage bomb’ hitting the housing market and economy, which I showed was out of line with what home owners and their banks are actually doing. Friday’s email.

* The Human Rights Commission’s conclusion in the final report from its landmark housing market study that the Government and others breached our international human rights obligations. Thursday’s email.

* Reports emerged of migration scams dragging in thousands of temporary workers with fraudulent claims of jobs and promises of residence. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ last night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with special guests:

* 5.00 pm - 5.15 pm - Bernard and Peter Bale opened the show with a summary of the news domestically and internationally, and a chat about Bernard and Lynn’s trip to Europe.

* 5.15 pm - 5.35 pm - University of Otago ProfessorRobert Patman talked about PM Chris Hipkins’ speech on security policy ahead of his trip to NATO early next week, plus the latest on what on earth is happening in Ukraine and Russia;

* 5.35 pm - 5.50 pm - Human Rights Commission Housing Inquiry Manager Vee Blackwood talked with Bernard and Peter about the Commission’s housing inquiry final report;

* 5.50 - 6pm - Bernard and Peter wrapped the show with a chat about plans for election coverage, with 99 days to go.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

Why land prices are 60% over-valued, but sustainable (spoiler alert: it’s the tax advantage)

In 2021 the Reserve Bank told everyone house prices were unsustainably high and would probably fall 15% or so. It was right, and now prices are bottoming out. But that implies house prices are officially at sustainable levels now. Surely, that can’t be right? Especially house price to income multiples are two to three times higher than they were 20 years ago and most people on regular incomes can’t buy their own homes without massive parental support or a lotto win.

This week on When the Facts Change talked to Reserve Bank researcher Andrew Coleman about his in-depth work on how to measure house price sustainability, and why the tax preferences for owner-occupied residential land make it 60% more expensive than it would be if taxed neutrally.

Chat thread of the week on The Kākā

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s one of the most commented ones this week, which was open to free subscribers too. Almost all are only open to paying subscribers and I’m thrilled at high level, depth and collegiality of the conversations we now have there as a community.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for subscribers included:

* The Labour Government’s announcement it would share the costs with councils and insurers of buying back about 700 now-uninhabitable homes (~$1 billion) and protecting another 10,000 at-risk homes (un-estimated) from extreme climate events after Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle, but couldn’t say how much it would or could pay, and how much it expected or would force councils and insurers to pay; Friday’s email

* Data this week from CoreLogic, Realestate.co.nz and Barfoot and Thompson showed a bottoming out of an 18-month slide in house values in a tightening market, with listings at a 16-year low in May and sales in Auckland up 53%; Thursday’s email

* I argued a clear victory for National/ACT in the October 14 election could unleash an immediate 10-20% bounce in house prices in auctions and open homes in late October and November; Wednesday’s email

* NIMBY groups were cock-a-hoop this week, calling on councils and the Government to completely abandon the MDRS housing densification rules in the wake of National’s backflip on a bipartisan deal once seen as the hope of a generation; Tuesday’s email

* Chris Bishop detailed National’s new housing policy for Election 2023 that confirms a National Government would not force councils to allow the building of three three-storey townhouses on a regular section without a resource consent — known as MDRS; Monday’s email

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ last night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with special guests:

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - University of Otago Professor Robert Patman on drone attacks on Moscow and Kyiv and Turkey’s election result;

* 5.25 pm-5.35 pm - Newsroom National Affairs Editor Sam Sachdeva on his just-published book ‘The China Tightrope;

* Wellington City Councillor Tamatha Paul on the politics of Lets Get Wellington Moving and the great battle for the Thorndon Quay cycle way; and,

* 5.45 pm to 5.55 pm - Christchurch City Councilor Sara Templeton on the politics of the Park Terrace cycleway drama.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

How big does Chris Bishop want us to be? - National’s Housing Spokesman Chris Bishop wants councils to zone enough land with enough pipes and roads to house 30 years worth of population growth, but not all through densification. I interviewed Chris for my weekly When The Facts Change podcast about how big he wants Aotearoa to be, and who will pay for all the extra infrastructure needed when that growth is on green fields, given National is less keen on brownfields medium density development.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s one of the most commented ones this week, which was open to free subscribers too. Almost all are only open to paying subscribers and I’m thrilled at high level, depth and collegiality of the conversations we now have there as a community.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for subscribers included:

* The Labour Government’s announcement it would pay NZ Steel $130 million to install an electric arc furnace to cut 800,000 tonnes of emissions a year. Lynn and I travelled to the Glenbrook steel mill south of Auckland for the announcement event. Here’s the analysis and podcast I sent in Monday’s email;

* Very strong net migration in recent months has meant the per-capita stimulus in Budget 2023 was much weaker than the headline figures suggest. Here’s my analysis and podcast in Tuesday’s email;

* The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) is looking at a ‘carbon dividend’ scheme that would recycle cash from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) back into the pockets of consumers, but I argued in Wednesday’s email a better alternative would be to recycle up-front an equal emissions rebate to residents as emissions-reducing vouchers or spending that effectively ‘buys’ even more emissions reductions through, for example, bigger discounts on public transport, electric bike discounts, solar panel installation vouchers and discounted energy-efficient appliances and lights;

* National Leader Christopher Luxon said this week National’s 2021 bipartisan deal with Labour to make it much easier to put three townhouses on a regular section was ‘wrong’, which I wrote in Thursday’s email that Luxon risked killing the hopes of young renters, just to win a few extra NIMBY votes.

* National and ACT pulled ahead of Labour and the Greens in a fresh poll out this week that would see the Opposition elected to Government without the need for another coalition partner, if the poll results were replicated on October 14. I wrote about that in Friday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with special guests:

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - University of Otago Professor Robert Patman on the Belgorod incursion, the Five Eyes warning about China’s Volt Typhoon hackers and Chris Hipkins’ PNG visit;

* 5.20 pm-5.30 pm - CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall on the RBNZ’s hike and then pause, mortgage rates and house prices;

* 5.30 pm to 5.40 pm - India Logan Riley on Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s partial U-turn in budget cuts and struggles getting support for selling the Airport shares; and,

* MRCagney urban planner and SubstackerMalcolm McCracken on National’s MDRS U-turn.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

How to be less foolish with our pounds - Aotearoa has been penny wise and pound foolish with its investments in maintaining and building public infrastructure and services. This week talked with Well-being economist Katherine Trebeck about how the machinery of government, politicians and voters can think and plan differently to avoid that same pound foolishness again.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s one of the most commented ones this week, which was open to free subscribers too. Almost all are only open to paying subscribers and I’m thrilled at high level, depth and collegiality of the conversations we have there as a group.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* All the key details from Budget 2023 on Thursday, where I travelled to Wellington for the Budget lockup and asked Finance Minister Grant Robertson about just how inflationary the Budget was. I also asked Housing Minister Megan Woods about why Labour is only planning one more year of state house building by Kainga Ora. Here’s more in Thursday’s Budget special email;

* My analysis of how the Budget’s net stimulus was worth around one percentage point of GDP, which is expected to add around 25 basis points to the Official Cash Rate to offset the official cash rate. Here’s more in Friday’s email;

* My analysis of how the Loafers Lodge fire exposed the extent of Aotearoa’s housing and poverty crises, how they’re not being fully addressed, and why. Here’s more in Thursday’s email;

* My look at how the fastest surge in net migration in our history is now putting extra upward pressure on interest rates, rents, house prices and still-underinvested infrastructure in the short run, and will put downward pressure on wages in our long-run ‘churn and burn’ political economy. Here’s more in Tuesday’s email;

* Analysis and charts on Christopher Luxon’s decision to rule out National governing with Te Pāti Māori and to sound a Don Brash-like ‘one person, one vote’ alarm appears to be painting his party’s and his own support into a more extremist and less popular corner with fewer pathways to governing after the October 14 election. Here’s more in Monday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’ (with two foxes watching)

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in London and special guests (plus two foxes loitering curiously in Peter’s garden!):

* CTU Economist Craig Renney about Budget 2023 and what the Reserve Bank should do when it decides on the Official Cash Rate again next Wednesday, where I’ll be travelling to Wellington again to ask Governor Adrian Orr questions in the news conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Statement.

* Founder of 2 Degrees and anti-monopoly activist (Monopoly Watch) Tex Edwards about the Government’s response this week to the Commerce Commission’s market study into building materials, and what any market study into banking should focus on;

* Mangawhai Pharmacist Lanny Wong (pictured below in a TVNZ Breakfast interview on May 1) from the Independent Community Pharmacy Group on the decision in Budget 2023 to remove the $5 prescription fee for all. I also campaigned against to remove the fee in this February email;

* Columnist for The Post-$$$ and Stuff, Josie Pagani, on National’s tone-deaf reaction to the removal of the $5 fee and Christopher Luxon’s problem with his (un)popularity.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

Gone by When the Lunchtime Facts Change - In this week’s When the facts change podcast for The Spinoff, I talked about Budget 2023 with Toby Manhire here.

And here’s my preview of the Budget on TVNZ’s Breakfast programme on Thursday morning. The interview was done outside and a Kaka swooped and squawked over my head just as the interview was starting.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s the most commented one this week:

Ka kite ano

Bernard