The Hoon

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Net emigration of New Zealanders overseas hit a record-high 47,000 in the 2023 year, which only partly offset net immigration of 173,000, which was dominated by arrivals from India, the Philippines and China with temporary work visas. Meanwhile, a report on students working found 15,000 were regularly working 20-50 hours a week to help their parents pay their rents. See Friday’s email.

* The Government reverted indexation for main beneficiaries to price inflation from wage inflation under Parliamentary urgency to save money for tax cuts, which it was advised by MSD could drive an extra 13,000 kids into poverty. 

The savings are also $1.36 billion less than National estimated before the election, expanding its fiscal hole created by the rejection of its to $2.96 billion foreign buyers’ tax to a total of $4.33 billion over four years. See Thursday’s email.

* Thousands of beneficiaries are set to be kicked off their benefits in coming months for not trying hard enough to get work after Social Development Minister Louise Upston signalled a new crackdown. That will happen despite Aotearoa-NZ having the third-highest workforce participation rate in the OECD behind Iceland and Sweden, the most income-stressed renters in the developed world, and having record high net migration of workers on temporary work visas. See Monday’s email.

*  IRD data shows nearly 50,000 recipients of New Zealand Superannuation are being paid $1.1 billion per year in benefits while also earning more than $100,000 per year, or a total of over $5 billion in gross income from jobs, investments and private pensions. That $1.1 billion in taxpayer funds being paid to rich people compares with the extra $1 billion in benefits being paid to the extra 79,000 people on the main jobseeker, sole parent and supported living benefits in the last five years, given those benefits are lower per-person than NZ Super and growing at a slower rate again because the main benefit is indexed to prices, rather than faster-growing wages. See Wednesday’s email.

* The National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government unveiled the first versions of its replacement for Labour’s Three Waters laws, but without the capital grants or guarantees that would make it viable for councils to opt in or attractive enough for bond investors to back, especially for Auckland Council’s Watercare.

In essence, the Government doesn’t want to take the blame for new water charges or the risk of having to promise bailouts of any new entities. It also doesn’t want to stump up any of the $180 billion of capital needed in the coming years because it wants to keep Government debt low to keep mortgage rates as low as possible. See Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about swimming and a lack of discussion about climate change’s role in Cyclone Gabrielle.

* 5.10 pm - 5.25 pm - Bernard, Peter and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer talked about the revived Mike Smith vs Fonterra climate damages case and the media’s role in not mentioning climate change when reporting climate catastrophes.

* 5.25 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* 5.45 pm -6 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with energy researcher Dr Sea Rotmann about the report on hidden energy hardship she coordinated with community groups, Genesis Energy and Mercury.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked with Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about her office’s report into options for NZ Superannuation reform.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The new National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government itself plans to accidentally and deliberately accelerate inflation via hikes in central and local Government fees and charges in the coming 18 months, which endangers its hopes for lowering mortgage rates. See Monday’s email.

* Jobs growth and wage inflation was slightly stronger than expected in the December quarter, which increased market expectations the Reserve Bank may actually start hiking the Official Cash Rate in three weeks time. See Friday’s email.

* The Government pulled around $180 million/year of public transport funding out of Auckland Council’s budget by cancelling the Auckland Fuel Levy from the end of June, but isn’t replacing the funds and now expects cuts in spending on cycleways, busways and speed bumps. See Friday’s email.

* Shock and outrage mounted over the rulings of the Independent Hearings Panel (IHP) on a new District Plan for Wellington City, which actually expand character protections on villas on the equivalent of an extra 120 rugby fields in the leafiest inner city suburbs such as Mt Victoria, Thorndon and Kelburn. See Thursday’s email and Wednesday’s email.

* Local Government, Transport and Auckland Minister Simeon Brown said he wanted councils to create off-balance-sheet water authorities able to borrow tens of billions of dollars without Crown or council guarantees: a stance rejected repeatedly by ratings agencies and fund managers as too expensive and dangerous. See Wednesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about Bernard’s teeth and the debate over Te Tiriti o Waitangi.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about research on the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and why it’s suggesting the climate may warm faster and more than the previous consensus.

* 5.25 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the latest developments in Gaza, the Red Sea and Ukraine.

* 5.45 pm -6 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with Green MP Julie-Anne Genter about the IHP report on the Wellington City Council District Plan and the new Government’s decision to dump the Auckland Regional Fuel Levy without replacement funding for public transport, walking and cycling.

Cathrine mentioned this video in her discussion.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Climate Fresk’s coordinator for Aotearoa Emily Mabin Sutton for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about cutting my emissions to two tonnes per year.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The Reserve Bank’s proposal this week to loosen Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) restrictions at the same time as introducing Debt To Income (DTI) restrictions is expected to add demand pressure to house prices, just as the central bank is expected to start cutting interest rates. See Thursday’s email.

* Cabinet met on Tuesday under intense pressure from councils and the infrastructure industry to come up with alternatives to Three Waters, including demands for more funding and revenue raising tools for councils, more council borrowing and a generalised push for more water metreing and charging. See Tuesday’s email.

* The business of Government began again in earnest for 2024 this week, with the National-ACT-NZ First coalition vowing to ‘hustle’ through the rest of its 100-day plan. In my view, the rhetoric of ‘hustle’ and simply pushing to have more people working harder for longer hours is redolent of what is wrong with New Zealand Inc and the approaches of both flavours of Governments in recent decades. See Monday’s email.

* Documents leaked to Guyon Espiner at RNZ showed NZ First’s Associate Minister of Health Casey Costello, a former head of the Taxpayers Union, which has received donations from tobacco firms, wants to freeze excise on cigarettes, against the advice of public health officials. Former NZ First staffers now work for tobacco firms in New Zealand. We talked about the unregulated influence of lobbyists in the podcast above.

* The Government chose to send troops to the Red Sea to back US and UK airstrikes on Houthi bases in Yemen. We talked about this in the podcast above with Robert Patman.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about Donald Trump and great cartoons.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the researh showing how climate sceptics used social media to lift a paper about thicker ice cover in Antarctica to be the most-read on climate in 2023, and a paper showing who are climate sceptics in Aotearoa-NZ and how their views shift over time.

* 5.20 pm - 5.30 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the the Government’s position supporting US and UK airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.

* 5.30 pm -5.45 pm - Peter, and Bernard spoke with Holly Bennett, the founder and owner of government relations and communications firm Awhi Group, on her calls over the last year for lobbyists to form a public lobbying register, a code of conduct and an oversight body, based on the New Zealand Media Council. RNZ

* 5.45 pm to 6:00 pm - Peter and Bernard spoke with Core Logic Head of Research Nick Goodall on the RBNZ’s DTI proposal and the outlook for the OCR after this week’s inflation figures.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Valocity Global Real Estate CEO Helen O’Sullivan for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the RBNZ’s DTI proposal.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Chart of the week

We already work too much, too often and too hard

Cartoon of the week

Protecting supply chains

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* The new National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government shut down the Auckland ‘Light’ Rail project to avoid spending up to $29.2 billion over decades, which was the right decision for the wrong reasons and still leaves the Government liable for unachieved emissions reductions and without congestion-reducing solutions for unplanned population growth running at over 3% per annum. Monday’s Dawn Chorus.

* We decided The Kaka would stay on Substack. Tuesday’s email and podcast.

* Business confidence surged in the December quarter as the change of Government was confirmed, reinstating a pro-National bias in confidence about the wider economy over Labour to nearer the 27 percentage-point long-run average. Wednesday’s Dawn Chorus

* The Government ruled EV owners would have to pay the same RUCs as diesel vehicles and the same road taxes as vehicles with double-cab-ute-type fuel economy, doubling down on the pain of losing the Clean Car Discount rebate and effectively encouraging drivers to buy heavier diesel utes. Thursday’s Dawn Chorus.

* PM Christopher Luxon and the National caucus finally returned from their summer holidays for an offsite retreat and the Government will hold its first cabinet meeting of the year on Monday, which is the same fourth week in January that Labour usually started back. Luxon had promised to start earlier than Labour. This week’s hoon above.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion staying on Substack.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the record temperatures in 2023 and the social science problems behind failing to reduce climate emissions; and,

* 5.20 pm - 6:00 pm - Peter, Bernard, and Robert Patman talked about the 3% GDP per capita recession last year, the Government’s slow start, Aotearoa-NZ’s stance on Gaza and Nauru’s flip to supporting China over Taiwan.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Water NZ CEO Gillian Blythe for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the water infrastructure crisis.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Chart of the week

Aotearoa-NZ’s GDP per capita fell at GFC-type rate in 2023

Cartoon of the week

A Caucus retreat

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* PM Christopher Luxon said the record-high net migration of the last year was “unsustainable” and he had asked Immigration Minister Erica Stanford to look at tightening settings, having argued during the election campaign for looser settings to boost the economy. Wednesday’s email

* The new Government cancelled plans for two new ferries and terminals for the Interislander, rejecting a $1.5 billion funding request from Kiwirail and sending it back to the drawing board for a project that had doubled in cost to $3 billion. Thursday’s email.

* GDP fell 0.3% in the September quarter, which was much weaker than economists and the Reserve Bank had expected, causing wholesale interest rates to fall sharply. Today’s Dawn Chorus.

* Countries at COP28 agreed to try to reduce fossil fuel use, but failed to get fossil-fuel producing countries that dominated the conference to agree to phase out or phase down fossil fuel use, which needs to happen very quickly to avoid temperatures rising to dangerous levels of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Yesterday’s Hoon.

* The new Government pushed ahead with urgent legislation to repeal changes made by Labour Government to the Reserve Bank Act, to reform the RMA and to create Three Waters, but without fresh economic analysis of the wider impacts. It also refused to immediately release official analysis showing how repealing the ‘Ute tax’ would increase emissions and fuel import costs dramatically. Today’s Dawn Chorus.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about no longer using X.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the end result at COP 28 and the Climate Commission’s recommendations to the new Government; and,

* 5.20 pm - 6:00 pm - Peter, Bernard, Robert Patman and Josie Pagani talked about the new Government’s first couple of weeks, the events in Gaza and their key events of 2023.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Items mentioned on The Hoon

During the Hoon we discussed various articles on The Kākā above and Peter recommended an article by Masha Gessen in The New Yorker-$$$.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Kiwibank Economist Mary-Jo Vergara for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the economic effects of 2023’s record-high net migration, including on rents, inflation, interest rates and house prices.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Chart of the week

Mortgage profit margins are up about 100 bps ($2-3b/yr) in 6 weeks

Cartoon of the week

Oil lobbyists and climate finance execs swamped COP 28 this week

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* New Finance Minister Nicola Willis set herself a very high bar for retaining confidence in her rhetoric by accusing Labour of “economic vandalism” in handing over a set of books ridden with ‘hidden’ “fiscal cliffs” worth billions, but without detail. That will come on December 20. Tuesday’s email

* The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost $1.5 billion per km, according to a global study, which is 50% more than equivalent US city rail costs, three times the cost of city rail in Australia and nine times more than it costs to build in Finland, Portugal and Spain. Monday’s morning email

* Just when most of the rest of the world’s inflation rates are falling, Aotearoa-New Zealand faces high inflation and mortgage rates for longer next year as record high net migration, rising rents and council rate hikes tolerated and provoked by the new National-ACT-NZ First Government’s policies inflate housing costs for all. Wednesday’s morning email.

* Te Pūtea Matua (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr warned high net migration and profit-led inflation were factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Tuesday’s Top 10

* Watercare’s CEO warning Aucklanders’ charges will triple, unless the new Government agrees to its bailout plan. Monday’s Top 10

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night.:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about plans for summer, consumption and living in caves.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the sunlight exposing the b******t at the COP conference and the failure of the Government’s ETS auction this week; and,

* 5.20 pm - 6:00 pm - Peter, Bernard, Robert Patman and Stuff Pou Tiaki Matua Carmen Parahi talked about the hikoi protests against the new Government’s moves to unwind Te Tiriti and Te Reo Māori progress. Also, see Cartoon of the week below.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments. We have a couple of special offers on at the moment.

Items mentioned on The Hoon

During the Hoon we discussed various articles on The Kākā and elsewhere including Cathrine’s weekly climate news roundup, which includes a discussion with me. I also referred to a Parliamentary debate yesterday about Gaza.

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to University of Otago Māori Public Health Researcher Andrew Waa for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about his analysis of the 2022 smoke free changes, and the true costs of reversing those changes. To replace $700 million a year of revenues lost from a foreign buyers tax, the new Government is choosing policies that will keep more people smoking for longer, costing thousands of lives per year and at least $10 billion is extra health costs and lost working hours.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Chart of the week

2023 was the warmest year in history. There’s still a month to go.

Video of the week

What 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels means for the planet’s ice

Cartoon of the week

Some cartoons don’t need a headline or caption

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Christopher Luxon, David Seymour and Winston Peters signed coalition-forming agreements, announced a ministerial list, were sworn in, held their first Cabinet meetings and released a 100-day plan with 49 to-do items; See Friday’s email

* National, ACT and NZ First agreed to drop National’s plan for a foreign buyers tax and adopt ACT’s plan for faster tax cuts for landlords, to be paid for by dropping a Working For Families tax cut and reversing anti-smoking measures which, if successful in reducing the number of people smoking, would have cost up to $1 billion a year in lost tobacco tax revenues; See Monday’s email

* Public health experts accused the new Government with choosing to sacrifice thousands of (more often) Māori and Pacifika lives and impose an extra $5.3 billion in extra public health costs for the sake of faster tax cuts for landlords; See Monday’s email

* Building consents kept falling and councils put on hold plans for new water and transport infrastructure that would underpin new house building because of the new Government’s plans to abandon Three Waters and review funding for Waka Kotahi and Kainga Ora; and, See Wednesday’s email

* The Reserve Bank surprised markets and economists by warning it could raise interest rates again early next year because of higher housing costs from record-high migration and a lack of new homes, and the stimulatory effects of the new Government’s tax cuts. See Thursday’s email

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night.:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the new Government and its plans;

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the COP conference just starting and the latest climate research; and,

* 5.20 pm - 6:03 pm - Peter, Bernard, Robert Patman and Josie Pagani talked about the death of Henry Kissinger yesterday, the new Government’s plans and Winston Peters accusing journalists with taking bribes from the Public Interest Journalism Fund.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Items mentioned on The Hoon

During the Hoon we discussed various articles on The Kākā and elsewhere including:

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the Reserve Bank’s hawkish decision this week and when interest rates might start falling.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

Ka kite ano

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* National Leader Christopher Luxon announced last night he had agreed policies and ministerial roles with ACT Leader David Seymour and NZ First Leader Winston Peters yesterday, with final signoffs from party boards expected last night, before a signing and the release of policy details this morning, and the naming of a ministerial lineup this afternoon;

* Westpac last night cut its two-year fixed mortgage rate by 10 basis points to 6.99%, passing on some of a 50 basis point slump in wholesale rates in the last month and responding to growing pressure from those pointing to rising bank profit margins; See Wednesday’s email and chart below;

* MBIE said it had stopped considering a damning experts report on energy poverty because of the change of Government; See Tuesday’s email;

* Talks to form a Government dragged into a sixth week with no immediate end in sight, thanks to NZ First’s opposition to a foreign buyers’ tax and ACT’s drive, supported by NZ First, for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi; and, See Monday’s email

* Global temperatures rose 2.07 degrees above Pre-Industrial levels on November 17, the first day the planet has been that hot for at least 25,000 years. See chart below.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Thursday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Thursday night.:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the just-announced announcement there would be announcements today of the new coalition Government’s policies and ministry.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about the upcoming COP conference and the latest climate records

* 5.20 pm - 5.58 pm - Peter, Bernard, Robert Patman and Josie Pagani talked about the new Government’s tasks, the (only-just-started) ceasefire in Gaza and the rise of Trumpy populist leaders in Argentina and the Netherlands.

* 5.58 - 6 pm - Bernard and Peter talked briefly about OpenAI and Peter found a skateboarding dog.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

Bank profit margins are rising

Temperatures rose 2 degrees over pre-industrial levels last Friday

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about how to electrify Aotearoa properly.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Vacuums formed in Government where there would usually be decisions by ministers and the Cabinet about ongoing issues. Public servants are now having to second-guess what they think potential ministers might want, going from their manifestos; Friday’s Chorus

* A record-high net 44,730 New Zealand citizens left the country permanently in the year to the end of September, Stats NZ reported this week. They were more than replaced by an also-record-high net 163,570 non-citizens arriving permamently, but mostly on temporary work visas; Thursday’s Chorus

* Auckland Council agreed to push for the new (unformed) National-led Government to legislate congestion charging on Auckland’s motorways from 2026 to replace the fuel tax National has promised to remove; Wednesday’s Chorus

* Restlessness about the lack of a new Government grew this week as PM-elect Christopher Luxon was forced to miss APEC, while delays to decisions about transport and infrastructure are increasingly frustrating for businesses, councils and other decision-makers; and, Tuesday’s Chorus;

* Labour quietly changed the rules for welfare and tax debt owed by beneficiaries to make forgiveness and interest-free loans easier in July, but National may not keep the changes. The changes reinforce the need for this $3.5 billion of debt to be wiped, given over 70% of beneficiary households with children owe an average of over $4,000 each to MSD, IRD and the courts, while also suffering housing, energy and food poverty. Monday’s Chorus.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night (changing to 5pm Thursday night from November 23):

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about The Hoon’s shift to Thursday at 5pm from November 23 (next week) and the lack of a new Government.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about Pacific countries’ calls on the yet-to-be-sworn-in National-led Government not to restart oil and gas exploration, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment’s report from NIWA on the  2,240 million tonnes of organic carbon stored in marine sediments within New Zealand’s Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ), and the restart of climate talks between China and the United States.

* 5.20 pm - 5.58 pm - Peter, Bernard, Robert Patman and Josie Pagani talked about the Pacific Islands Forum, the idea of a Schengen-style common trading and employment zone for the Pacific with Australia and New Zealand, the Israel-Hamas war and the meeting of Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden just before the APEC leaders’ meeting in San Francisco this week.

* 5.58 - 6 pm - Bernard and Peter talk painfully about the return of David Cameron to British politics as an unelected Foreign Secretary for an unelected PM (see more on that in Pic of the day below).

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Our churn and burn economy

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about the outlook for the housing market, Kiwibank and the prospects for Debt to Income multiple controls.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Pic of the week

David Cameron returns, to keep Guardian cartoonist Steve Bell busy

Cartoon of the week

‘Move along now, nothing to see here…’

Ka kite

Bernard

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* A new official report quietly buried by the Labour Government in its final months in power identifies over 300,000 people are now living in housing and energy poverty so severe that they are unable to afford the power needed to stay warm in winter, have warm showers or cook their own food; Friday’s email

* European Union scientists estimated that 2023 was on track to be the hottest in 125,000 years, with October a full 0.4 degrees celcius warmer than the previous record; Thursday’s email

* PM Chris Hipkins was voted back in as Labour leader by his caucus after he told them he wanted a ‘clean slate’ on the issue of a wealth tax for the party to take into the next election. But can Hipkins, who ruled out a wealth tax “under a Government that I lead” credibly argue to an electorate, let alone his own caucus, that he is committed to such a tax? Wednesday’s email

* Tech entrepreneur Derek Handley launched a new first home buyers’ index showing they would need a $1 million deposit within 20 years if the last 20 years of increases house price, wage inflation and term deposit interest rates continued on at similar rates. He was launching a non-bank to help first home buyers save faster and get on the ladder faster by putting money into riskier deposits and assets returning more, and taking on fellow equity investors as a type of new ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’; and, Tuesday’s email

* Councillors and mayors in our two fastest growing cities pulled the plug on a National-ACT plan to build ‘out’ rather than ‘up’ by rejecting plans for more sprawling ‘greenfields’ developments, but they have also dialled back on up-zoning needed to add enough ‘brownfields’ homes for an extra 110,000 people per year. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the targeting of journalists in Gaza.

* 5.10 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about Fonterra’s announcement of a scope 3 emissions reduction target of 30% and a UN Environment Programme report estimating Governments would produce more than double the emissions required to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

* 5.20 pm - 5.45 pm - Peter, Bernard Robert Patman talked about the Israel-Hamas war and the Pacific Islands Forum.

* 5.45 - 6 pm - Bernard and Dr Sea Rotmann talked about the Energy Hardship Experts Panel report released this week.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Chart of the week

Other places I appeared this week

I talked to Derek Handley for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff about his non-bank for first home buyers called Aera.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Cartoon of the week

Not for long

Ka kite

Bernard