Epistemic status: model-building based on observation, with a few successful unusual predictions. Anecdotal evidence has so far been consistent with the model. This puts it at risk of seeming more compelling than the evidence justifies just yet. Caveat emptor.

Imagine you're a very young child. Around, say, three years old.

You've just done something that really upsets your mother. Maybe you were playing and knocked her glasses off the table and they broke.

Of course you find her reaction uncomfortable. Maybe scary. You're too young to have detailed metacognitive thoughts, but if you could reflect on why you're scared, you wouldn't be confused: you're scared of how she'll react.

She tells you to say you're sorry.

You utter the magic words, hoping that will placate her.

And she narrows her eyes in suspicion.

"You sure don't look sorry. Say it and mean it."

Now you have a serious problem. [...]

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Outline:

(02:16) Newcomblike self-deception

(06:10) Sketch of a real-world version

(08:43) Possible examples in real life

(12:17) Other solutions to the problem

(12:38) Having power

(14:45) Occlumency

(16:48) Solution space is maybe vast

(17:40) Ending the need for self-deception

(18:21) Welcome self-deception

(19:52) Look away when directed to

(22:59) Hypothesize without checking

(25:50) Does this solve self-deception?

(27:21) Summary

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.