Last week's softening of the Trump administration's tariff policies super charged the stock market to its biggest daily gains in years, but incoherent messaging from the White House has investors second-guessing the rally in stocks and selling U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar. Plus, retail investors have been trying to catch falling knives amid the market volatility by buying the dips, but that strategy has backfired in this cycle, and trust in our capital markets has been compromised. And, big bank CEOs are warning about a recession, but beauty stylists are already seeing it show up at the salon.

Links for show notes:

https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3db9e55?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://www.investopedia.com/trump-exempts-smartphones-computers-chips-from-tariffs-11714237

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lipstick-effect.asp

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Steve Eisman, who was profiled in the terrific book and movie, "The Big Short", explains why he's not shorting any parts of the market right now, but what he would bet against under certain conditions. He explains what's different about this recent volatility and the Great Financial Crisis and the crash of 1987, and how the tariff war might play out as negotiations continue. Plus, his thoughts on Steve Carell's portrayal of him in the movie and how that has changed his life.

Links: https://www.audacy.com/podcast/the-eisman-playbook-048f2

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020115/big-short-explained.asp

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Liberation Day last week brought the biggest selloff in the stock market since the early days of the pandemic as investors couldn't get out of stocks fast enough, putting a swift end to the bull market that began running in October of 2022. Fed Chair Jerome Powell preaches patience as the impacts of the tariffs are still unknown, but consumers and investors haven't been this pessimistic in years. We lay out three scenarios for what might happen next in the tariff war, but one thing is for certain - no one - not even our elected officials, really knows. Plus, the Fed Chair shares his favorite economic indicator and Grateful Dead albums.

LINKS for show notes

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

https://sabew.org/

https://www.investopedia.com/stocks-just-had-one-of-their-worst-weeks-of-this-century-update-11709694

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11708734

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Investors have been bracing for, and selling ahead of April 2nd, dubbed "Liberation Day", by The White House, when hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs are set to be imposed on Canada, Mexico and China. That has driven consumer and investor sentiment down to multi-year lows as we ready ourselves for more inflation and profit pressure. Meanwhile, the rise of a new coalition of autocracies called the CRINK's has been very busy doing business with one another in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and they are doing it without the Dollar. What a declining greenback means for the strength of the U.S. economy as it enters a new era of protectionism.

LINKS for show notes:

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/section-232-investigations

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protectionism.asp

https://globaltradealert.org/

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11704419

https://www.investopedia.com/investors-are-gripped-by-fear-and-distrust-but-hold-onto-favorite-stocks-11703339

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnG2EvqRKbA

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Stocks rallied last week following dovish comments and forecasts from the Federal Reserve, but Chair Powell said inflation may be 'transitory', which brought back nasty flashbacks from 2021. Investors are as bearish as ever, but retail investors have been buying the dip on our favorite stocks that are way off their recent highs. Is our timing terrible, or have we decided that the market has bottomed and the tariffs that go into effect next week will just be a minor adjustment? Plus, what the SKEW Index is telling us, and what to expect in the stock market and the economy this week.

LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES:

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11700527

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skew-index.asp

https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/skew/

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/four-reasons-not-to-panic-and-sell-right-now/

https://www.investopedia.com/dot-plot-spotlight-fed-sees-interest-rate-cuts-coming-11699946

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Seema Shah, the Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, on how and where to invest as tariff and policy uncertainty roils markets and economies. In an unpredictable investing landscape, Seema helps us focus on the real trends, assets and indicators that can lead us to a clearer path.

LINKS

https://www.principalam.com/us/insights

https://www.linkedin.com/in/seemavshah/

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The S&P 500 fell into a correction last week as sentiment soured to multi-year lows amid tariff and economic policy uncertainty. Don't look now, but credit spreads are widening, pushing the Fed into the caution zone ahead of this week's pivotal meeting on interest rates. Plus, six ways to protect your portfolio if you can't sleep at night, and believe it or not, a big IPO is heading our way.

Links for show notes:

 https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.pdf

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2003292/000162828025012824/klarnagroupplcf-1.htm

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11696253

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditspread.asp

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Another week of selling as the stock market suffers its worst week since early September sending the Nasdaq into correction territory and triggering the very rare and very dangerous Titanic Syndrome. Plus, the headline numbers and the Fed Chair both say the economy is in a good place, but that depends where you live inside of it. We break down the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly inside the economy today, and explain why 'stagflation' is back in the conversation.

LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

https://www.investopedia.com/fed-chair-powell-confirms-wait-and-see-approach-to-rate-cuts-11693204

https://www.investopedia.com/job-market-bounced-back-in-february-11692802

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp

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February was a short and brutal month across the capital markets as the momentum trade into Big Tech and A.I. stocks reversed, leaving a pile-up of major losses across investors' favorite stocks. The White House dropped a new executive order to build a 'Strategic Crypto Reserve', breathing some bullishness back into the beleaguered crypto patch, and Wall Street has dusted off an old, but risky strategy called 'Portable Alpha', to find the next moonshot stocks.

LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES:

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11687706

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portablealpha.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/trump-says-canada-mexico-tariffs-will-take-effect-next-week-china-rate-to-double-11687476

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis

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A swift drop in investor and consumer sentiment rattled the ‘Immaculate Rotation’ from growth to value stocks, sending the stock market off of record highs. But that hasn’t stopped retail traders from rushing back into the stock market at levels approaching 2021 highs in search of dips across mega cap tech, A.I. and consumer discretionary stocks. Is our timing as bad as it was during Roaring Kitty’s heydays? Plus, Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter dropped Saturday with its usual dose of wisdom and humility. But it’s hard to be humble when your holding companies generated $47 billion in operating profit last year, and you are sitting on $343 billion in cash.

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11683487

https://www.investopedia.com/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q4-fy24-warren-buffett-11684624

https://www.investopedia.com/featured/original/investopedia-explains

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/

https://www.vandaresearch.com/news/

https://berkshirehathaway.com/2024ar/2024ar.pdf

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