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(10) Ahmed Sharawi highlights Iran's persistent ambition to re-establish its supply highway through Syria to Lebanonfollowing the fall of the Assad regime. Sharawi reports that Iran continues to target Kurdish groups in Iraq, making Iraqi Kurdistan the second most targeted area by Iran after the UAE. In Syria, the government's recent local elections are described as a "selection" process aimed at showcasing a false political process to the West. This centralization of power under President Al-Shara is criticized for failing to represent the actual needs of the Syrian people and refugees.
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(3) Jonathan Sayeh reports that the U.S. blockade has caused a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports, though it has not yet reached a level of total economic catastrophe. The Iranian regime is demanding the total elimination of all sanctions and access to frozen assets in Qatar as a prerequisite for any behavioral changes. Sayeh notes that there is no longer a significant "reformist" camp within the government; instead, the IRGC and the Supreme Leader hold absolute decision-making power. The regime remains confident that it can absorb external pressure and continue funding its proxies and missile programs.
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