Imagine you create a piece of content that gets millions of views. How long would it take you to make a follow-up? A few hours later…the same day…or maybe a few days at the most, right? I guess you could say the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) wouldn’t cut it in today’s creator economy. That’s because it took the regulatory agency 25 years to update its previous 1998 guidance document, “Dietary Supplements: An Advertising Guide for the Industry.” You might be thinking that A LOT has probably changed in the supplement industry over the last 25 years…and you’d be right. During that time, the supplement industry has gone from a fledgling enterprise still seeking legitimacy, regulatory structure, and recognition…to a mainstream behemoth with sales north of $60 billion in the U.S. market alone. Since the FTC waited an absurdly long time to update its supplement industry advertising guidance, you might also be thinking that the regulatory agency must simply be ignorant to the breadth and depth of change that happened within the supplement industry. That’s silly though…the FTC isn’t blind…plus what happened in the supplement industry isn’t particularly unique. Every sector of the economy is drastically different than it was in 1998. So, what took them so long? Section 5(a) of the FTC Act provides that “unfair or deceptive acts or practices in or affecting commerce are declared unlawful.” So…in the eyes of the FTC, the legal fundamentals around consumer protection remain mostly unchanged. That doesn’t mean all that change within the supplement industry didn’t converge with the more than 200 cases filed by the FTC challenging false or misleading advertising claims since 1998…causing layers of nuanced confusion for stakeholders. Is the updated document from the FTC titled “Health Products Compliance Guidance” perfect? I think holding any governmental agency to a standard of perfection is asinine. But maybe with more specific and current examples, the revised guidance document will hopefully be a tremendous tool for the supplement industry to build marketing campaigns and meet FTC’s current expectations. Additionally, I’m not a lawyer…so while I’ve played nice within the evolving expectations of the FTC for more than a decade…I don’t interface directly with the regulatory agency on a regular basis. That’s why I thought it would be best if I brought on my good friend Ivan Wasserman, managing partner at Amin Talati Wasserman LLP, which is one of the nation's leading regulatory and intellectual property law firms, to explain the commonalities, differences, and surprises that he noticed in the FTC document Health Products Compliance Guidance. 

Health Products Compliance Guide

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What happens when a bunch of shred zepplins, swolezillas, and Broseidons circle around a stack of price inflated sports nutrition products and start making event predictions about the supplement industry? This will basically be the personification of that imaginary scenario! My one big rule for these annual prediction lists is that I don’t allow carryover from previous years. Additionally, since these are "outlandish" predictions, I try and take Happy Gilmore level swings. The second rule was put in place because it optimizes for entertainment, but it also makes for killer “I told you so” callout clips if I get any of these correct. That being said, one disclaimer because I don’t want those pesky federal agencies contacting me…I do not have insider information on any of these mentioned predictions and this list was thrown together for entertainment purposes only. I say that because outlandish or not…I’ve gotten lucky about 40 percent of the time on these predictions throughout the years. Some fun correct ones were, (1) predicting BBCOM would get acquired in 2019 (2) GNC getting taken private through bankruptcy in 2020 (3) GHOST Energy outselling its supplements in 2022. We also could still see some outlandish predictions come true years later like a pair from the 2019 edition that said AB InBev would buy Bang Energy and MusclePharm would be taken private.

But in no particular order, here are my five supplement industry event predictions that could happen in 2023:

And then finally this year’s bonus prediction with no explanation…Laird Superfood gets acquired.

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Which sports and active nutrition industry trends do I predict will be the biggest in 2023? Believe it or not, this will be my fifth annual list of sports and active nutrition industry trend predictions. Many of you know that I cut my teeth in the sports nutrition space…plus I’ve always believed the best and brightest companies in sports and active nutrition are the influential epicenter for the entire CPG industry. So, there’s always an extra layer of maybe self-generated pressure that I put on myself to come up with insightful and impactful trend predictions in this particular content piece. Also…for those that are new to my content, I only have one big rule for these annual trend prediction lists. I don’t allow carryover predictions from previous years. This makes it more challenging, but also a little strange because trends are typically multiyear in nature…with the strongest ones lasting a decade or more. So, if you have some extra time and want to multiply your insights…I’d suggest checking out my previous annual sports and active nutrition industry trend prediction content pieces. They’re still hugely relevant and packed with value.

In no particular order, here are my prediction for five of the biggest Sports Nutrition Industry Trends in 2023:

BTW this year’s Top 5 sports and active nutrition industry trend predictions is super cool because it’s powered by one of my favorite ingredients Cognizin. Whether it’s for work, exercise, gaming, or just everyday life, Cognizin is the gold standard for focus, mental energy, and comprehensive brain health. Give your customers an award-winning ingredient for brain health with Cognizin. Learn more by visiting www.Cognizin.com.

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Better, softer, yummier…is this newly reformulated Quest Bar a gamechanger in sustaining market leadership in the active nutrition snacking category? In this latest episode, I'll utilize the 2023 Q1 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 1/5/2023 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In Q1 of fiscal 2023, both Atkins Nutritionals and Quest Nutrition performed in the top-tier of categorical competitors in retail takeaway, with Quest Nutrition specifically having strong YoY growth at slightly more than 25%. What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? While the Quest Nutrition snacks segment (e.g. Quest Chips, Quest Cookies, Quest Peanut Butter Cups, etc.) is now nearly 45% of measured channel retail sales for the brand...Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. That means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. Here’s the good news…the core bar business is growing. In fact, this quarter it had tracked channel retail takeaway growth in the quarter of 16.8%. What’s at the heart of that? Well…obviously in this current environment there’s price inflation, but ex-inflation…what’s the volume growth coming from? The classic Quest Bar recently went through a major upgrade. From my understanding, they worked with the global dairy nutrition company Fonterra on a proprietary protein innovation that provides a softer bar and will also yield a longer shelf life of softness which significantly improves the eating experience. I still haven’t gotten my hands on some of the new Quest Bars yet, but leadership did note that the Quest Bar retail takeaway growth was stemming from a direct response to consumers enjoying the reformulation. It’s still early…maybe ~6 months since the earliest new Quest Bars hit the market, so not going to 100% say all is clear, but if the upgrade does prove successful, it will take away one of the largest consumer pain points with Quest Bars and provide a sustained uptick in sales for the market leader. Also...for the final part of the content, I ran through a few headwinds and tailwinds that The Simply Good Foods Company (and competitors) will be facing in the coming year with a high likelihood of a recession.

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It’s that glorious time of year again, where my content creation morphs into a collection of Top 5 lists that either gives me the chance to highlight key insights from the last year or provides me the opportunity to put my reputation on the line as a forward-leaning CPG strategist and make predictions about the coming year. Believe it or not, this will be my fifth annual list of functional food and beverage trend predictions. For those that are new to my content, I only have one big rule for these annual trend prediction lists. I don’t allow carryover predictions from previous years. This makes it more challenging, but also a little strange because trends are typically multiyear in nature…with the strongest ones lasting a decade or more. So, if you have some extra time and want to multiply your insights…I’d suggest checking out my previous annual functional food and beverage trend prediction content pieces because they’re still hugely relevant and packed with value. This year’s Top 5 functional food and beverage trend predictions is extra special because it’s powered by NuLiv Science and their 100% plant-based compound AstraGin…that increases the absorption of many vital nutrients promoting a healthy gut environment. Whether it’s a functional food or beverage application, you want your customers absorbing and getting the most out of what they’re consuming, right? I know you do…so make sure you check out www.NuLivScience.com to learn more.

In no particular order, here are my prediction for the Top 5 Functional Food and Beverage Trends in 2023:

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Rick Ross is one of the most successful musicians in the world, but few realize he also dabbles in the world of consumer packaged goods (CPG). So, what can CPG professionals learn from the hip-hop legend? I’ve always believed that hip-hop and CPG entrepreneurship are linked together. This is probably why you see so many hip-hop artists that are involved with CPG entrepreneurship or investing in this consumer sector. While his overall business activity is lower compared to Jay Z, you might be surprised to learn that Rick Ross is an active investor across the CPG industry. Interestingly, Rick Ross and Jay Z both got their start in the CPG world through the same alcoholic beverage entrepreneur. Brett Berish, CEO of Sovereign Brands, who founded Armand de Brignac (aka Ace of Spades), also founded the sparkling rose brand Luc Belaire. In 2013, Rick Ross became essentially the brand’s ambassador, which skyrocketed Luc Belaire in the rap game. A decade later, there aren’t many artists as synonymous with a particular brand quite like Rick Ross is with Luc Belaire…even earning himself the nickname Rick Rozay. Likely due to the successful longtime partnership, Rick Ross is also involved in several other Sovereign Brands alcoholic portfolio companies. Now…Rick Ross might be best known for his alcoholic beverage investments, but he also dabbles in the packaged food side of the CPG industry (Rap Snacks and CTRL). It’s also my belief that lyrics from his extensive catalog of music spanning more than a decade and quotes from various interviews will provide strong lessons for any CPG professional. I picked out a handful of my favorites that I know will bring you value…

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Who doesn’t enjoy a trick, shortcut, or innovative method for accomplishing familiar tasks more easily and efficiently, right? While these type of lifehacks are heralded throughout society, it’s fraternal twin known as biohacking feels like a strange cultlike mix of amateur DIY medicine and things you’d read in futuristic sci-fi novels. Depending on which biohacking subculture you ask (e.g. grinders, transhumanists, primitivists or immoralists), you’ll get a different definition of what biohacking is, but how about we try on the one I prefer? I explain biohacking as making small, incremental diet or lifestyle changes to achieve modest improvements in your health and well-being. By that broad definition, biohacking seems like a recognizable pursuit, right? While the media likes to sensationalize the extreme actions of select biohackers, I’ve scrolled through many biohacking forums and subreddits, and followed prominent biohackers across social media platforms…and noticed almost all are trying to solve familiar problems. Biohackers want to get more and higher quality sleep. They want to perform better at work. They’d like to lose weight, gain strength, or reduce their risk of things like cardiovascular disease. Biohackers are trying to prevent or manage mental health issues like depression. So, if biohacking comes down to something we can all relate to…why hasn’t the movement exploded in popularity? I think perception and reality aren’t matching up around biohacking, and it’s time for a much needed rebrand. For many years, I’ve referred to the desire to feel better, perform better, and to see just how far one can push the human body as an individual that’s pursuing a high-performance lifestyle. It wasn’t until a recent conversation with Matt Titlow, CEO of Compound Solutions, that I learned he has been calling the mainstreaming effect of the biohacking movement…the “Best Self” category. I liked the simplicity of that term, so I’m going to rebrand my own rebrand and use it going forward. The “Best Self” movement is a broader yet direct approach to the wellness culture that doesn’t just assume one-size-fits-all. It’s the consumer that simply wants to be better each day. While the future of biohacking might one day have us resembling cyborgs, that would be closer to Z on the A-to-Z spectrum. Right now, Shelly from Ohio isn’t thinking about all those sci-fi distractions in her pursuit of “Best Self.” Today’s opportunity is targeting the “Best Self” consumers that are looking at real problems or highlighting real goals…and interested in finding real solutions.

Compound Solutions TeaCrine, Dynamine, and Caffeine Information

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It’s that glorious time of year again, where my content creation morphs into a collection of Top 5 lists that either gives me the chance to highlight key insights from the last year or provides me the opportunity to put my reputation on the line as a forward-leaning CPG strategist and make predictions about the coming year. Outside of just ranking which five sports nutrition brands I thought were the biggest winners in 2022 (plus another handful of honorable mention brands), I also toss in numerous insights about strategies that made them each supplement brand special and some important supplement industry business themes to make the content more impactful. 

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Isotonic beverages, sports drinks, hydration products…whatever you call them, blurring lines and new positionings are creating one heck of a fascinating CPG category. For those looking beyond water for their hydration needs, the market is heavy with functional beverages and powdered supplements. While just about every CPG category has been filled with brands “skating on ice” trying to meet the everchanging consumer demands, none closely compared to the hydration category that was once defined pretty much only by the sports drink Gatorade. It’s that “cat and mouse” business game which is blurring the lines between category, brand, function, and format. But you’ll see throughout this content together that the functional CPG category isn’t so much about invention as it is about incremental innovation. Invention is creating a totally new thing. Gatorade was something totally new. Today, if you want to create something that has a lasting impact on the CPG world, it needs to be combo of “new” yet “familiar.” Do something too closely related to the market leader and people won’t take notice but do something too novel and they’re confused. In the CPG industry, most successful products do not arrive out of nowhere; they’re remixes of existing ones. I'll explain how brands like BODYARMOUR, BioSteel, Liquid IV, and PRIME Hydration, were all inspired by the category creator Gatorade. Finally, I'll explain where I see the hydration category going next by mentioning a few trends.

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I want to welcome you back to another episode of what I’ve branded Pivotal since these interview-style segments tackle impactful CPG industry topics and lessons from the business leaders that live it EVERY DAY! As we close out another year, it only seems right that I would focus this latest episode on both recapping some sports and active nutrition trends/themes from the last year and look forward to predicting what trends/themes are getting hotter and others that might be cooling off. Instead of just sharing my collection of categorical insights, I brought on my good friend and Senior Market Insights Analyst at SPINS, Scott Dicker, to help make this content even more valuable. Though Scott covers tons of product categories for the data insights company SPINS, the sports and active nutrition space is a personal favorite of his because of the speed of innovation and shifts in consumer behavior. In our conversation, we chatted about which sales channels are winning the categorical incrementality, how energy everything took off, why hydration is for everyone now, the creatine evolution, why precision fermentation is going to have a massive year, and how flavor partnerships might be hitting resistance. These are just some of the interesting topics we chatted about in this episode, but without further delay, here is my recent conversation with the Senior Market Insights Analyst at SPINS, Scott Dicker.

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