Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023. 
 
For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change

Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, where he sits down with a variety of thought leaders for a conversational breakdown of big ideas, future trends, emerging topics and their investment implications to help inform building stronger investment plans for the long-term.

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Over the past year, investors have been inundated with negative reports of elevated mortgage rates and empty office buildings, weighing on their sentiment toward real estate investing. However, real estate comes in many shapes and sizes, and each sector has its own fundamentals and use cases in the portfolio construction process. In fact, while some segments may look more attractive than others, valuations across the asset class have reset as rates have climbed higher, and investors searching for diversification, steady income and inflation protection have an entirely new menu of opportunities to choose from. That said, after nearly a decade of suppressed interest rates, real estate investors may have to re-calibrate their approach for the return of a structurally higher cost of capital.
To share how he is approaching the market against the backdrop of higher rates, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Doug Schwartz, a Co-President and Portfolio Manager within our Real Estate Americas Platform. Doug has been with the firm since 2004 and has almost 30 years of industry experience across a range of functions, including transactions, asset management and risk management.

Real estate in the “new” old normal

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Over the last decade, extraordinarily low interest rates have made it difficult for investors to generate income within portfolios. While rates have risen over the past two years, so has bond market volatility and a higher correlation between stocks and bonds has made the search for uncorrelated sources of income even more difficult. However, at the same time, infrastructure has built a strong track record of generating steady income while exhibiting low correlation to a traditional portfolio and less sensitivity to economic and market risks given the essential nature of the assets.
Against a backdrop of stretched valuations across risk assets and some uncertainty towards the outlook for monetary policy and inflation, there's no better time to discuss how investing in infrastructure can help build better portfolios. To share his views on the asset class, I'm joined by Nick Moller, an investment specialist and managing director within our Infrastructure investment group.

Finding income and fighting inflation with Infrastructure

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Coming out of the pandemic. Fiscal and monetary stimulus provided support for fundraising deals and exit activity within the private equity market. Even as fiscal stimulus has waned and the Federal Reserve has tightened policy. Better than expected economic activity and earnings have supported recent performance. For investors looking to supplement their public equity allocations, private equity can help enhance portfolio returns, as it has done for multiple decades and provide exposure to rapidly growing companies at the forefront of key market trends and themes. That being said, private equity does have the drawback of lower liquidity, and higher interest may pose a threat to future returns.
For today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephen Catherwood, Co-head of our Private Equity Group with over 20 years of experience on the team. They dive deeper into the current balance of risks and opportunities in the private equity market.

Beyond the public markets a path to premium returns

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Portfolio Managers from across J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help shed some light on the rapidly growing and increasingly important world of alternatives. These conversations will range from broad overviews of the entire opportunity set, to asset class-specific deep dives across private equities, private credit, real estate and more.
Since 1950, the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has delivered a strong annualized return of 9.3%. However, with elevated valuations across U.S. equities and low bond yields relative to history, returns from public markets may be less impressive moving forward. That said, for those willing to venture outside of the classic 60/40, adding a sea of alternatives to a portfolio can meaningfully improve outcomes and enhance returns. Of course, there are many different types of alternative assets, each with their own distinct characteristics.
For investors, understanding how to leverage these alternative strategies can make the difference between falling short of your long-term goals and surpassing them. For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Pulkit Sharma, Head of Alternative Investment Strategy and Solutions here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the benefits of allocating to alternatives and the opportunities that he’s seeing across alternative asset classes.
For more resources, please visit the Guide to Alternatives.

Diversification, disruption and dislocation: Unveil the opportunities in Alternatives

This year had no shortage of surprises for investors, from strong returns in stock markets to the impressive resilience of the U.S. economy. Along the way, we’ve confronted all sorts of shocks: a new war in the Middle East, Washington dysfunction, even higher interest rates while the labor market and consumer have seen continued strength. As we look to 2024, there is cause for both concern and optimism. A soft landing is still in view, but there’s a number of risks that could potentially divert us from that path. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the economic outlook for 2024.
For more insights, read the full investment outlook here.

The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change

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