The Long Term Investor

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com

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Sam Ro returns to The Long Term Investor to help make sense of the headlines, valuations, and market narratives that so often distract investors from what matters most. This conversation is a timely reminder that while the story changes every week, the long-term drivers of returns—especially earnings and business fundamentals—still do most of the heavy lifting.

Listen now and learn:

► Why earnings remain the most important long-term driver of stock prices

► What elevated valuations do and do not tell us about future returns

► Why U.S. stocks have outperformed and what could shift that leadership

► How to separate hard data, soft data, and media narratives when evaluating markets

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com

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Brad Stulberg returns to The Long Term Investor to share a more grounded, more human definition of excellence—one rooted not in perfection or status, but in meaningful work, clear values, and deep satisfaction. This conversation is full of practical wisdom for anyone trying to do great work, stay focused in a distracted world, and build a life that feels both ambitious and fulfilling.

Listen now and learn:

► Why excellence is not the same as perfectionism, obsession, or winning at all costs

► How to build routines that raise the floor when life feels chaotic

► Why focus is harder than ever in the smartphone era—and what to do about it

► How AI can support excellence without replacing the deeply human parts of your craft

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Not sure if you're financially ready to retire? Let's create a strategy to give you confidence. Book a call with Peter now.

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This is the third and final episode in our ETF series, and it seeks to answer a common question that comes up with 351 exchanges: How do you decide which ETF is the right one when it doesn't have a track record? In this episode, I explain what a 351 exchange is in plain English and share a practical framework to use before making a commitment before a fund is live.

Listen now and learn:

► What a 351 exchange is–and why ETFs are uniquely suited for it

► The right way vs. wrong way to think about choose a 351 exchange ETF

► The key due diligence questions that matter most when a fund has no track record

► Types of investors that benefit most from participating in a 351 exchange

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

ETFs look simple on the surface—you buy a ticker and move on. But behind every ETF is a set of mechanics that explains how shares get created, why prices usually stay close to what the fund owns, and when trading costs and tax outcomes can surprise you. In Part 2 of this three-episode series, I break down the ETF "plumbing" in plain English so you can use ETFs more confidently and avoid common mistakes.

Listen now and learn:

► What authorized participants actually do—and why they matter to everyday ETF investors

► How the creation/redemption process works behind the scenes when supply and demand shift

► Why NAV and market price can diverge, and what typically pulls them back together

► The practical implications for you: spreads, execution, and when ETFs can behave differently than mutual funds

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

This is Part 1 of a three-episode series on ETFs—and how their behind-the-scenes mechanics ultimately make 351 exchanges possible. When a new ETF shows up in your brokerage account, it can feel like it appeared out of thin air. In reality, launching an ETF is more like launching a regulated business: sponsors test demand, build infrastructure, line up seed capital, and then hope the fund survives long enough to reach scale.

Listen now and learn: ► The real "go/no-go" questions sponsors ask before they ever file paperwork

► Why some ETFs take off quickly while others quietly disappear

► What seed capital actually does—and why it matters on day one

► The hidden investor costs of owning an ETF that never reaches escape velocity

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Wondering if you're making the right financial moves? Let's build a strategy you can rely on. Schedule a call with Peter to get professional guidance.

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SpaceX could be one of the most anticipated IPOs since Facebook—and whether it happens this year or years from now, the same IPO dynamics will show up the moment the headlines hit. In this episode, I use explain how IPOs actually work, why the "IPO price" isn't the price most investors can buy, and what tends to happen once trading begins. The goal isn't to talk you out of curiosity—it's to help you keep a long-term plan from getting hijacked by a short-term story.

Listen now and learn:

► The one IPO detail most investors miss—and why it changes how you read every "IPO popped 30%" headline

► How shares really get distributed in a hot IPO, and why access isn't as straightforward as it sounds

► The post-IPO calendar events that can matter more than day one hype

► A simple, portfolio-first way to think about IPOs so your plan doesn't depend on "getting in early"

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Your finances have layers—investments, taxes, planning for the future. If you want a second set of eyes, Peter opened up a few spots for a quick, no-obligation call. Grab yours now.

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If you ever hire help, how do you tell whether you're getting a high-quality advisor? Ranie Verby, Plancorp's Director of Practice Management, joins the show to explain what "financial advisor" can really mean, how to spot a true fiduciary at an RIA, and why the best advice shows up when life gets messy, not when markets are calm.

Listen now and learn:

► The quickest screening questions that reveal whether an advisor is transparent, fiduciary, and actually aligned with you

► The firm-structure red flags that signal thin service, weak continuity, and no real succession plan

► Why "owned outcomes" matter more than portfolio picks when you hit a major life event

► How Plancorp uses behavioral finance and AI to improve the client experience without burning out advisors

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(01:30) How to choose a high-quality financial advisor: fiduciary duty and RIA screening

(04:51) Signs of a great advisor: trust, continuity, and why a team matters

(08:26) Behavioral finance in financial planning: tough conversations, estate planning, and family decisions

(13:44) DIY investing vs hiring an advisor: accountability, decision support, and owned outcomes

(16:29) How Plancorp uses AI in financial planning to save advisor time and improve meetings

(21:49) Advisor burnout and capacity: why it affects client experience and continuity

(26:23) Financial advisor red flags and green flags: team size, succession plan, and relationship fit

(29:08) Integrated financial planning under one roof: investing, taxes, and estate coordination

(32:22) For advisors: how to evaluate your firm and build a sustainable advisory career

(36:20) Choosing a financial advisor: fiduciary in writing and meet the full team

(37:08) Where to follow Ranie Verby

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

----- AI is turning into a real capital cycle, with trillions of dollars of infrastructure and investment flowing into the buildout. That economic story matters, but it doesn't automatically translate into easy stock-market winners. In this episode, I walk through a simple way to think about AI exposure inside a long-term portfolio without letting a powerful narrative push you into a concentrated bet.

Listen now and learn:

► Why the "AI is real" story can be true even when the market feels messy

► The hidden trap that turns big technological shifts into disappointing investment outcomes

► A practical framework for thinking about AI exposure that doesn't require picking the long-term winners

► How to pressure-test your portfolio so AI excitement doesn't break your plan when conditions change

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard's Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it's really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions.

Listen now and learn:

► How Vanguard builds and governs its capital markets model—and what it's designed to do (and not do)

► A simple way to interpret percentiles without turning them into predictions

► What changes when you shift from a 10-year lens to a 30-year lens

► The key portfolio implications Kevin thinks long-term investors should be paying attention to

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(00:00) Introduction

(02:16) What the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) Is—and Why Return Assumptions Matter

(04:04) How Vanguard Wants Investors to Use VCMM: Expectations, Risk Trade-Offs, and Smarter Allocation Decisions

(09:27) How Vanguard Builds the Forecasts—and the Capital Market Assumption Approaches They Didn't Rely on Alone

(15:08) How to Read Percentiles, 10-Year vs 30-Year Forecasts, and What Vanguard Likes Most Right Now

(29:21) The Performance-Chasing Problem: When Investors Suddenly Want More International Again

(30:05) AI, Mega Trends, and Three Scenarios: Why Economic Upside Doesn't Guarantee Stock Market Upside

(34:31) Geopolitics and Markets: Why It's Not a Direct Forecast Input, But Still Shapes Long-Term Premia

(37:48) The 2026 Signposts: What Would Actually Change Vanguard's Conviction and Move the Outlook

(39:32) What Vanguard's Capital Markets Research Team Is Focused on Next—and Why Ranges Beat False Precision

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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Ever wondered where your retirement plan's "probability of success" really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts.

Listen now and learn:

► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections

► The four common ways advisors choose capital market assumptions—and why they differ

► Why "more sophisticated" assumptions can sometimes create more error, not less

► How to think about your plan's probability of success without getting lost in the math

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.