The Long View

Our guest on the podcast is investment consultant and author Charley Ellis. In 1972, Ellis founded Greenwich Associates, an investment consultant to institutional investors, government organizations, and wealthy families. His seminal book about the benefits of passive investing, Winning the Loser's Game, is in its seventh edition. Ellis has also authored or coauthored books about investment policy and strategy, the retirement system in the United States, and large investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and Capital Group. He has taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and Harvard Business School and was the successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university's investment committee with David Swensen. He also served on the board of directors at The Vanguard Group. Ellis was awarded the Graham & Dodd Award of Excellence from the Financial Analysts Journal and is one of only 12 people recognized by the CFA Institute for lifetime contributions to the investment profession. He received his undergraduate degree from Yale College, his Master of Business Administration from Harvard Business School, and his doctorate in financial economics at New York University.

Background

Charley Ellis bio

Charley Ellis books 

"The Loser's Game," by Charles D. Ellis, Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 1975. 

"Words From the Wise: Charley Ellis on Challenges Facing Investors," by Antti Ilmanen and Rodney N. Sullivan, AQR Insights, June 5, 2015.

Passive vs. Active Management

"How to Decide Where to Hire Active Managers," by Alex Bryan, Morningstar.com, April 8, 2020.

Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) 

Jim Simons bio 

"Index Funds Aren't Too Big, but Asset Managers Might Be," by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Jan. 17, 2020. 

"The Secret History of Index Mutual Funds," by Stephen Mihm, InvestmentNews, Sept. 6, 2016. 

ESG Investing

"David Blood and Al Gore Want to Reach the Next Generation," by Imogen Rose-Smith, Institutional Investor, Sept. 8, 2015. 

"The ESG Fund Universe Is Rapidly Expanding," by Jon Hale, Morningstar.com, March 19, 2020. 

Private Equity

"Vanguard Moves into Private Equity with HarbourVest Partnership," by Chris Flood, Robin Wigglesworth, and Richard Henderson, Financial Times, Feb. 5, 2020. 

"The Cons (and Pros) of Vanguard's Decision to Offer Private Equity," by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Feb. 25, 2020. 

"Fran Kinniry: Applying the Vanguard Approach to Private Equity," by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, Morningstar's The Long View podcast, April 1, 2020. 

"SEC Looking to Open Private Markets to a Wider Audience,” by Hazel Bradford, Pensions & Investments, Oct. 28, 2019. 

David Swensen/Yale Endowment

David Swensen bio 

David Swensen books 

Yale University Endowment 

Yale's Strategy 

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Our guest this week is Rick Rieder. Rieder is BlackRock's global chief investment officer of fixed income, and co-head of BlackRock's global fixed-income platform. In addition, Rieder serves as a member of BlackRock's global operating committee and is chairman of the BlackRock firm-wide Investment Council. As part of his responsibilities Rieder manages several prominent BlackRock strategies, including BlackRock Global Allocation, BlackRock Total Return, and BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities. He's currently a member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. Before joining BlackRock in 2009, Rieder was president and CEO of R3 Capital Partners, and prior to that did a stint at Lehman Brothers. Rieder earned his Bachelor's degree in finance from Emory University and his MBA from the Wharton School of Business.

Background

Rick Rieder’s bio

Rick Rieder’s twitter account @rickrieder

BlackRock Total Return Fund

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund

BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund

Macro and Outlook 

BlackRock’s 2020 Global Outlook

“Eight Key Investment Themes for 2020” by Rick Rieder, Russell Brownback, and Trevor Slaven; January 2020

“How Large is the Coronavirus Macro Shock?” by Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin, and Philipp Hildebrand; April 7, 2020

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Monthly Commentary; April 2020

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Special Commentary; April 2020

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Our guest on the podcast is Carl Richards, who specializes in conveying sophisticated financial concepts in an easy-to-understand way--specifically, using a Sharpie. Carl is a Certified Financial Planner™ and creator of the Sketch Guy column in The New York Times. He’s also author of two books, The One-Page Financial Plan: A Simple Way to Be Smart About Your Money and The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Money. In addition, he hosts the “Behavior Gap Radio” podcast and also co-hosts a podcast with financial-planning guru Michael Kitces called “Kitces and Carl.”

Background

Carl Richards bio

Carl Richards' books

Carl Richards articles

Carl Richards “Sketch Guy” column in The New York Times

Behavior Gap Radio podcast

Kitces and Carl podcast

“12 Simple Sketches That Perfectly Illustrate the Path to Wealth and Financial Happiness,” by Libby Kane and Libertina Brandt, Business Insider, July 22, 2019.

The Behavior Gap

“The Behavior Gap,” by Carl Richards. Medium.com. Oct. 18, 2018.

“To Avoid the Biggest Investing Mistake, Stay Strong,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, March 26, 2013.

“Yes, Numbers Matter in Financial Decisions, but So Do Emotions,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, May 8, 2017.

Articulating and Achieving Goals

“Goals As Guesses,” by Carl Richards, YouTube, Jan. 16, 2018.

“The Magic of a Single Micro-Action,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, Nov. 6, 2017.

“A Simple Formula for Making Dreams Come True,” by Carl Richards, Medium.com, June 28, 2018.

“Hal Gregersen Interview: Asking the Right Questions,” YouTube.com, April 8, 2018.

Questions Are the Answer: A Breakthrough Approach to Your Most Vexing Problems at Work and in Life, by Hal Gregersen, Harper Business, 2018.

The Dan Sullivan Question, by Dan Sullivan, The Strategic Coach, 2009.

“Your Future Should Be Bigger Than Your Past. Here’s How to Do It,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, Sept. 14, 2018.

“The First (and Last) Step to Financial Satisfaction? Defining ‘Enough’,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, May 1, 2017.

“Setting Aside Shame and Blame in Financial Decisions,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, Sept. 8, 2015.

“How to Talk About Money,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, Dec. 18, 2018.

“Look Inward to Determine Your Financial Values,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, April 20, 2015. 

“Where Does the Time Go? You Can Find Out, If You Dare,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, July 5, 2017.

“Seeking More Fun? Examine the Returns on Your Time Investments,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, July 10, 2017.

When Things Fall Apart: Heart Advice for Difficult Times, by Pema Chodron, Shambhala, 2016.

“We Are All Normal,” Meir Statman, Morningstar The Long View podcast, Oct. 30, 2019.

Finance for Normal People, by Meir Statman, Oxford University Press, 2019.

Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman, FSG Adult, 2013.

“The Benefits of Getting an Icy Start to the Day,” by Carl Richards, The New York Times, March 14, 2016.

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Our guest on the podcast today is renowned retirement researcher Moshe Milevsky, who has conducted research on a broad range of topics, including pensions, annuities, investment strategies for people approaching retirement, and asset allocation over the human lifecycle. A prolific writer and researcher, Milevsky is also the author of several books, including Are You a Stock or a Bond?, The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement, and The Calculus of Retirement Income. His recent books include King William's Tontine: Why the Retirement Annuity of the Future Should Resemble Its Past and The Day the King Defaulted: Financial Lessons from the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672. He's served as a professor of finance at the Schulich School of Business at York University for the past 25 years. He received his bachelor's degree in physics at Yeshiva University, his master's degree in mathematics and statistics at York University, and his doctorate in finance at York University's Schulich School of Business.

Background

Moshe Milevsky's home page 

Milevsky's Twitter account @retirementquant

Milevsky's CV

Moshe Milevsky Books 

Are You a Stock or a Bond? 

The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement 

The Calculus of Retirement Income

King William's Tontine: Why the Retirement Annuity of the Future Should Resemble Its Past

The Day the King Defaulted: Financial Lessons from the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672

Human Capital

Roger Ibbotson bio 

"The U.S. Labor Market During and After the Great Recession: Continuities and Transformations," by Arne Kalleberg. The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 3, April 2017. 

"No Portfolio is an Island," by David Blanchett and Phillip Straehl, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 71, issue 3, May/June 2015. 

Longevity Risk

"Forget Your Real Age: Plan Your Retirement Around Your 'Biological Age'," by Lewis Braham, Barron's, Jan. 27, 2019.

"Retirement Spending and Biological Age," by Huaxiong Huang, Moshe Milevsky, and T.S. Salisbury. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, September 2017.

"The Utility Value of Longevity Risk Pooling: Analytic Insights," by Huaxiong Huang and Moshe Milevsky, North American Actuarial Journal, Feb. 8, 2019.

The SECURE Act

Annuities and Tontines

"Valuation and Hedging of the Ruin-Contingent Life Annuity (Rcla)," by Huaxiong Huang, Moshe Milevsky, and T.S. Salisbury, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 81, No. 2, May 2014. 

"Pros and Cons of 2 Key Annuity Types," by Christine Benz and David Blanchett, Morningstar.com, Oct. 18, 2014.

"Could a Tontine Be Superior to Today's Lifetime Annuity Income Products?" by Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View, Feb. 3, 2016.

"Estimating the True Cost of Retirement," by David Blanchett, Morningstar Investment Management, Nov. 5, 2013.

Retirement System and Planning

Olivia Mitchell CV

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Our guest on the podcast is retirement researcher Dr. Wade Pfau. Wade is a professor of retirement income in the Ph.D. in Financial and Retirement Planning program at the American College of Financial Services. He is also co-director of the New York Life Center for Retirement Income. A prolific writer and researcher, Wade has authored papers and books on a wide spectrum of retirement-related topics, including in-retirement withdrawal rates, optimal asset allocations for retirement, and the role of annuities in retirement portfolios. He is a two-time winner of the Journal of Financial Planning's Montgomery-Warschauer Award, a two-time winner of the Academic Thought Leadership Award from the Retirement Income Industry Association, and a best paper award winner in the retirement category from the Academy of Financial Services. His latest book, part of the Retirement Researcher Guide Series, is called Safety-First Retirement Planning: An Integrated Approach for a Worry-Free Retirement.

He holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst.

Background

Wade Pfau bio

Books by Wade Pfau

Wade Pfau blog posts on Retirement Researcher

Wade Pfau Forbes columns

Wade Pfau blog posts for WSJ’s “The Experts”

Wade Pfau on Twitter

Asset Allocation in Retirement

Kitces, M. & Pfau, W. “Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path.” Journal of Financial Planning. Vol. 1. P. 38.

Pfau, W. “To Rise or Not To Rise: Stock Allocation During Retirement.” Retirement Researcher.  

Pfau, W. “4 Ways to Manage Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement.” Retirement Researcher.

Benz, C. 2019. “Cut Stocks Or Add to Them? A Key Dilemma for Your Retirement Plan.” Morningstar.com, July 25, 2019.

Blanchett, D., Finke, M., & Pfau, W. 2013. "Asset Valuations and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates." June 28, 2013.

Shiller P/E Ratio

Withdrawal Rates in Retirement

Wollman Rusoff, J. 2020. “Wade Pfau: Pandemic Tears Up 4% Rule.” ThinkAdvisor, April 14, 2020.

Blanchett, D., Finke, M., & Pfau, W. “The 4 Percent Rule Is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 26, No. 6, P. 46.

Pfau, W. 2020. “How Much Can Retirees Spend on March 11, 2020? It May Not Be What You Think.” Forbes.com, March 11, 2020.

Pfau, W. “Using Reverse Mortgages in a Responsible Retirement Income Plan.” Retirement Researcher.

Pfau, W. 2015. “Improving Retirement Outcomes with Investments, Life Insurance, and Income Annuities.” Forbes.com. May 23, 2015.

Finke, M., Pfau, W., & Williams, D. “Spending Flexibility and Safe Withdrawal Rates." Journal of Financial Planning.

Pfau, W. 2016. “What Is the 'Floor and Ceiling' Retirement Spending Strategy?” Forbes.com, Oct. 18, 2016.

Pfau, W. 2015. "Making Sense Out of Variable Spending Strategies for Retirees.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 10, P. 42.

Bengen, W.P. “Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IV.” FPA Journal.

Guyton, J.T. & Klinger, W.J. “Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates.” FPA Journal.

Blanchett, D. 2013. “Simple Formulas to Implement Complex Withdrawal Strategies.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 26, No. 9, P. 40.

Healthcare and Long-Term Care

Blanchett, D. 2013. “Estimating the True Cost of Retirement.” Morningstar.

Pfau, W. “What Is Age Banding and What Does It Mean for Retirees?” Retirement Researcher.

Pfau, W. 2016. “Two Options for Funding Long-Term Care Expenses.” Forbes.com. Jan. 12, 2016.

Finke, M. and Pfau, W. 2017. “Managing Long-Term Care Spending Risks in Retirement.” AnnuityAdvisors.com.

Annuities

Pechter, K. 2019. " 'Safety-First' Income Plans, Per Wade Pfau.” Retirement Income Journal, Oct. 10, 2019.

Hopkins, J. 2019. “3 Reasons Annuities Are the Unsung Heroes of Retirement Income Planning.” Forbes.com. June 14, 2019.

Pechter, K. 2019.  “The Reason for SPIAs, from Pfau and Finke.” Retirement Income Journal, April 25, 2019.

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Our guest on the podcast is Dr. Brigitte Madrian, a leading light in the field of behavioral economics. She is the dean and Marriott Distinguished Professor in the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business. Dr. Madrian has a joint appointment in the Department of Finance and the George W. Romney Institute of Public Service and Ethics.

Household savings and investment behavior have been key focuses of her research, and her work in these areas has influenced the design of 401(k) plans and pension reform legislation. She also uses the lens of behavioral economics to understand health behaviors and improve health outcomes.

Background

Brigitte Madrian bio and research archive

Emergency Funds/Decision-Making Under Financial Duress

Intertemporal choice

Beshears, J., Choi, J.J., Iwry, J.M., John, D.C., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2020. “Building Emergency Savings Through Employer-Sponsored Rainy Day Accounts.” Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 34, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Benartzi, S. 2020. “People Don’t Save Enough for Emergencies, but There Are Ways to Fix That.” The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 17, 2020.

Harvey, C.S. 2019. “Unlocking the Potential of Emergency Savings Accounts.” AARP Public Policy Institute, October.

Tergesen, A. 2019. “Employers Help Workers Build Household-Emergency Funds.” The Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2019.

Pension Rights Center. 2019. “How Many Workers Participate in Workplace Retirement Plans?” July 15, 2019.

Eisenberg, R. 2017. "R.I.P. myRA Retirement Account, Gone Too Soon." Forbes.com. July 28, 2017.

Mental accounting

Retirement Savings

Benz, C., & Levine, J. 2020. “What Does the CARES Act Mean for Retirement Accounts?” Morningstar.com. April 3, 2020.

Madrian, B.C., & Shea, D.F. 2000.“The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2000.

Finke, M. 2015. “Brigitte Madrian’s Power of Suggestion--and How It Improved Retirement.” ThinkAdvisor, Aug. 31, 2015.

Madrian, B.C. 2014. “That Was Easy: The Importance of Auto Features in Promoting Retirement Savings.” AARP Public Policy Institute, October 2014.

Rosenberger, J. 2019. “The Woman Behind the Way You Save for Retirement.” Guideline blog, April 4, 2019.

Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2007. “$100 Bills on the Sidewalk: Suboptimal Investment in 401(k) Plans.” The National Bureau on Economic Research, December 2007.

Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2007. “Mental Accounting in Portfolio Choice: Evidence from a Flypaper Effect.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2007.

Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2001. “For Better or For Worse: Default Effects and 401(k) Savings Behavior.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2001.

Carroll, G.D., Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., Madrian, B.C., & Metrick A. 2005. “Optimal Defaults and Active Decisions.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2005.

Beshears, J., Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., Madrian, B.C., & Skimmyhorn, W.L. 2016. “Does Borrowing Undo Automatic Enrollment’s Effect on Savings?” The National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2016.

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Our guest this week is Chris Davis. Chris is a portfolio manager at Davis Advisors, where he runs a number of strategies, including the Davis New York Venture, Selected American, and Clipper Funds. Chris joined Davis in 1989 and has more than 28 years' experience in investment management and securities research. Among other accolades, Chris was the recipient of the Morningstar Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Year award in 2005. He received his M.A. from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

Background

Chris Davis bio

Davis Funds website

“Davis NY Venture Fund: Special PM Update” by Chris Davis and Danton Goei; March 2020

Davis NY Venture Fund: Update from Portfolio Managers Chris Davis and Danton Goei; Annual Review 2020

Davis NY Venture Fund

Davis NY Venture Fund portfolio data

Working From Home

“Management by Wandering Around”; Wikipedia

Behavioral Biases

Buffett Partnership Letters—Letter to Partners dated Jan. 18, 1965 (pg. 69)

Richard Feynman bio; Wikipedia  

Stocks Referenced

AIG

United Technologies

Otis Elevators

Raytheon

Carrier

Bank of America

US Bancorp

Wells Fargo

Capital One

Bank of New York Mellon

Visa

JPMorgan

American Express

Berkshire Hathaway

Apache

EOG

Devon

Ultra Petroleum

Alphabet

Facebook

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Our guest this week is Dan Fuss. Dan is vice chairman of Loomis Sayles board of directors and is the longtime manager of the firm’s flagship Loomis Sayles Bond Fund LSBDX as well as a number of other strategies. Dan is one of the most experienced bond managers in the industry today; he recently entered his seventh decade in the investment business. He’s also one of the most accomplished bond managers around, racking up an excellent long-term record over his career. In recognition of this, Morningstar named Dan the Outstanding Portfolio Manager at last year’s Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence. Dan has twice served as president of the CFA Institute’s Boston chapter. He earned a bachelor’s and MBA from Marquette University and served in the United States Navy from 1955 to 1958.

Background and Research

Dan Fuss bio
Morningstar analysis of Loomis Sayles Bond, March 2, 2020
Morningstar’s analysis of Loomis Sayles Strategic Income, March 12, 2020.
Morningstar’s analysis of Loomis Sayles Global Allocation, Oct. 16, 2019.
Morningstar report for Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Fixed Income
Morningstar report for Loomis Sayles Fixed Income
"Winners of the 2019 Awards for Investing Excellence," by Laura Pavlenko Lutton, Morningstar.com, May 9, 2019.
 

Current Market/Investment Outlook

Loomis Sayles Investment Outlook, April 2020.
1973-74 Stock Market Crash, Wikipedia.
“Dollar Climbs on Safe-Haven Beds, Shrugs Off Horrible U.S. Jobs Number,” by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Reuters.com, April 2, 2020. 
“The Fed Starts a New Program to Provide Dollars to Central Banks and Calm the $5 Trillion Currency Market,” by Ben Winck, Markets Insider, Mar. 31, 2020.
“U.S. High Grade Corporate Bond Issuance Sets Weekly Record,” by Kate Duguid and Joshua Franklin, Reuters.com, April 2, 2020.
“Long-Term Capital Hedge Fund Crisis,” by Kimberly Amadeo, The Balance.com, Jan. 8, 2020.
“Here’s a List of Companies That Have Suspended Their Dividends and Stopped Buying Back Stock,” by Lawrence C. Strauss and Andrew Bary, Barron’s, March 23, 2020.
Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic, Wikipedia.

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(A note to listeners: We recorded this interview before the recent sell-off began, and that is why it's not discussed. We'll address the recent downturn in future installments of The Long View. Please enjoy this episode and thanks again for listening.)

Our guest this week is Fran Kinniry. He is a principal in the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, which develops Vanguard's investment philosophy, methodology, and portfolio construction strategies. Kinniry has been a leading researcher on topics like capital markets, portfolio design, and investment strategy. He was recently tapped by Vanguard to lead the firm's initiative to offer private equity investment management to certain institutional and high-net-worth clients. Before joining Vanguard in 1997, Kinniry was a partner and senior portfolio manager for institutional asset manager Executive Investment Advisors, and before that he was the portfolio manager for H. Katz Capital. Kinniry is a CFA charterholder and earned his Master of Business Administration and bachelor's degree from Drexel University.

Background and Research
Fran Kinniry bio

HarbourVest

"Vanguard and HarbourVest Announce Private Equity Partnership." The Vanguard Group, Feb. 5, 2020.

"The Role of Private Equity in a Nonprofit Portfolio." The Vanguard Group, Nov. 15, 2019.

Vanguard research library

"Vanguard Advisor's Alpha," by Donald Bennyhoff and Fran Kinniry, Vanguard Research, July 2018.

John C. Bogle: A Look Back at the Life of Vanguard's Founder

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(A note to listeners: We recorded this interview before the recent sell-off took began, explaining why it’s not discussed. We’ll address the recent downturn in future installments of The Long View. Please enjoy this episode and thanks again for listening.)

Our guests this week are Arman Kline and Trevor Magyar of investment management boutique, Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, or RCG for short. Arman and Trevor sit on the five-person investment committee at RCG that oversees management of all client assets, including those held in the Sequoia Fund. This year, the Sequoia fund will celebrate its 50th anniversary as a mutual fund. From its July 15, 1970, inception through Jan. 31, 2020, the fund gained 13.6% per year, topping the S&P 500 index by 240 basis points annually. Arman joined RCG in 2002, following a stint as an equity analyst at Merrill Lynch. He graduated from Colby College. Trevor began at the firm in 2007, following an early career in investment banking, private equity, and hedge funds. He's a graduate of Princeton University and received his MBA from Harvard University.

General

Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb (RCG)
RCG investment committee and team bios
Sequoia Fund 2019 Annual Report
Sequoia Fund Q4 2019 Investor Letter
Sequoia Fund shareholder communications
Morningstar analysis of Sequoia Fund; Aug. 8, 2019
Sequoia Fund portfolio analytics

Stocks Referenced

Rolls Royce PLC ADR RYCEY
Mastercard MA
CarMax KMX
Carvana CVNA
Wayfair W
Amazon.com AMZN
Zalando SE ZLDSF
Zooplus AG ZLPSF
Vivendi SA VIVEF
Alphabet GOOGL
Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A

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