The Other Hand

Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction.

Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon.

An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the government.

China would love some over-heating.

Do we want to drive cars that are potentially controlled from Beijing? Or is that just science fiction?

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Is Keir Starmer up to the task? The early evidence suggests not?

Are bankers worth it?

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Will the electorate be grateful for budget 2025?

Where was the long-term strategy and/or vision?

So little for Irish businesses, particularly indigenous SMEs

Tax base narrowed again

Infrastructure mentioned loads of times with few details, let alone plans

Not nearly enough focus on return on invetsment

Will it work? In political terms at least.

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As we approach Budget 2025, we reflect on the usual leaked measures and suggest we are just children looking for the keys to the sweet shop. And yet so many of us say we want more houses, better health and high-quality schools. And then we elect politicians with a mandate to do none of those things.

Is democracy structurally incapable of delivering much needed change? Or is just a system that delivers blocking coalitions to parliaments everywhere that prevent anything serious from happening? Is democracy now just the culturally and economically complacent ensuring that things stay pretty much the same?

All this as the European economy sinks back into sullen economic mediocrity. At least interest rates will fall again in a few weeks and give house prices another much needed boost.

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A prominent ex central banker has suggested that Ireland should spend the money: it's time, he says, for 'Jam today'. That's our interpretation, at least, of his only slightly coded remarks.

Trumponomics: it's time to take them seriously, if not literally.

Another Chinese economic stimulus: bazooka or pea-shooter?

Your weekly reminder about the global nature of the housing crisis

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There is a building slowdown in global manufacturing that is starting to look serious. This is a Chinese problem that is fast becoming a major issue for Germany. That's one explanation for the rise of the right in Germany.

The new UK government is beginning to look like a bewildered bunch of not very good middle managers

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The US central bank goes large and delivers a big interest rate cut. Thereby admitting it should have cut sooner.

The Irish property market moves into double figure price inflation. And mortgage rates are only going to fall further

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What is the right level of interest rates? While discussion of 'R-star' might seem esoteric, they do say one important thing: Euro interest rates are way too high.

The Federal Reserve has achieved its price stability mandate and is now switching to focus on employment.

Growth is now front and centre of all European economic policy debate. Even - especially - in the UK. The new chancellor is going down exactly the wrong path if she sticks to her fiscal rules. Don't just listen to us - every economist in the world is now on the same page when it comes to investment and growth. The time has come to junk the old rules and embrace sensible risk taking.

The response to the Apple tax case has at times verged on hysteria. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. Where are all the foreign multinationals going to go?

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Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic.

Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation.

European interest rates are still too high.

When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainable manner.

The Draghi report is worth reading at least twice. It is incredibly hard hitting. Europe's economy is falling far behind the US. His message to Euope's policymakers: do whatever it takes to catch up. Otherwise, the European project risks failure.

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