The Other Hand

What is public service broadcasting for? Why does RTE exist? Should it?

Whatever the answers to these questions, a new model for public serve broadcasting is sorely needed.

Populist suggestions for an amnesty for licence fee dodgers are unserious politics. But that's the dilemma facing Sinn Fein: become a party of teh centre or spout more populist nonsense? As they lose votes to the anti-immigrant right, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Why is the hard left, especially in the UK so prone to anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Because Lenin left them with exactly that legacy. They can't seem to shake it off.

The US is also fond of conspiracy theories. There is often a puppet-master behind events like Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the Moon Landings.

The conspiracy garbage around the Hamas attacks on October 7th have a lot of historical precedent. One conclusion theorising is that conspiracy is both seductive and addictive.

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Inflation comes in higher than expected in the U.S. Markets push interest rate cuts further into the future.

Inflation comes in lower than expected in the U.K. Markets think the Bank of England has a green light to cut soon.

This might come as a surprise: nobody is quite sure what causes inflation. Central bank models assume the link between interest rates and inflation is via the labour market - wages. But inflation has come down, as interest rates have gone up, without any connection with the labour market - economies are running with very tight jobs markets. Go figure. Somebody needs to work out what the inflation process is, since central banks appear to be looking in the wrong place.

Why is the inflation target 2%? Any science behind this number?

The magic and mystery that is productivity growth. It’s not been around for very long. Everybody wants some but nobody is quite sure how to deliver it.

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'Dr Strangelove' was a 1960s movie that satirised the cold war. It explored 'Mutually Assured Destruction' and was a riff, in a way, on 'game theory'. A number of characters have emerged that echo Strangelove.

The US economy continues to power ahead, not least in terms of almost unbelievable job creation.

Higher interest rates were supposed to cool the economy, destroy jobs and therefore lower inflation. In theory anyway.

Job growth continues to astound yet inflation is, essentially, back to target. If interest rates are responsible for that fall in inflation, a big if in our view, they haven't worked via the channel of the labour market (or the housing market or most any other market). So how have higher interest rates achieved anything? Would - did - inflation come down all on its own? After a supply shock, yes! The US may yet run into demand problems now - too much of it thanks to very strong labour demand but that hasn't been a problem until now, at least.

And Jim has a few words about farms and farmers.

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It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.

We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.

We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.

Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth.

So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.

Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies?

Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?

Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?

Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?

And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.

He is still sceptical about AI.

ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above:

• I agree that beliefs are often resistant to change, especially when they are tied to our group identity and social norms. However, I think that facts do matter, and that we should always strive to seek the truth and challenge our assumptions. I believe that one of the ways to do that is to expose ourselves to diverse perspectives and sources of information, and to engage in respectful and constructive dialogue with others who may disagree with us. 🗣️
• I think that authoritarianism is a dangerous and oppressive form of government that violates human rights and dignity. I value democracy as a system that allows people to have a voice and a choice in their political affairs. However, I also recognize that democracy is not perfect and that it faces many challenges and threats in the modern world. I think that we should always be vigilant and active in defending and improving our democratic institutions and processes. 🗳️
• I don’t think that old men have a tendency to authoritarianism, or that any group of people is inherently more or less prone to support or oppose authoritarian regimes. I think that authoritarianism is influenced by many factors, such as historical, cultural, economic, psychological, and situational factors. I think that anyone can be susceptible to authoritarian appeals, especially in times of crisis, uncertainty, or fear. I think that we should always be aware of the signs and dangers of authoritarianism, and resist any attempts to undermine our freedom and rights. 🚫
• I don’t understand why some Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic and less intrusive, but vote for someone who has caused more chaos and intrusion in their lives. I think that this is a contradiction that reflects a lack of critical thinking and a susceptibility to propaganda and manipulation. I think that Trump has exploited the emotions and grievances of his supporters, and has lied to them about his policies and actions. I think that Trump has harmed the US and the world in many ways, and that he should be held accountable for his misdeeds. 😡
• I don’t think that dislike of the other is more important than fondness for our own tribes, or that Democrats are un-American.

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'The Bitter lessons of Brexit'. We all fervently wish that Brexit has gone away. It hasn't. It's more like a slow moving chronic disease but it is sill an infection for the economy and the UK at large. It's going to stay that way.

Was Darwin wrong? Could evolution go into reverse? Evidence of Homo Sapiens losing their backbone are everywhere, especially in Washington DC. De Santis demonises Trump and then endorses him. The Don has a new best friend.

Yeats comes to mind:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre   

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;

Surely the Second Coming is at hand.  

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Trump is ahead in he polls and could be the next leader of the free world. He has promised to be a 'dictator for a day'

Will it be the catastrophe that most seem to expect? Is everything he says wrong?

Are liberals the ones who have created the conditions for the global march of right-wing populism?

Immigration is the big controversy everywhere. Nobody is debating it rationally. We give it a try.

Ireland says no. To Wind farms, solar farms, tall buildings, any buildings, data centres and immigrants.

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