The Other Hand

Leading economist Duncan Weldon joins Chris in conversation about how tax revenues are giving finance ministers in Ireland and the UK much more room for manoeuvre - for now at least. Is the the UK government setting itself up for stringency now to be followed by pre-election giveaways?

The British have a strange attitude towards financing de-carbonisation.

The state of economic journalism. Modern economics: what message does the recent Nobel prize send?

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In Jim’s absence (he always needs a couple of weeks off after the budget), Chris speaks to leading hedge fund manager Peter Van Dessel. An Irishman living in the USA, Peter brings a unique and insightful perspective to the current state of Ireland. He shares his thoughts on the ways in which supply shortages and inflation may well last an awful lot longer than many policy makers seem to think. With many a twist and turn along the way.

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The budget was the expected smorgasbord of measures. A budget that makes abundant sense to a centrist. But in this age of populism, does it cut the political mustard? Can the centre hold? In the words of Yeats:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst   
Are full of passionate intensity.

The test of Ireland’s political stability awaits. If Sinn Fein can buy enough votes with its incoherent high spend, high tax, no property tax policies then the die is cast. Ireland will get what it votes for. The centre is collapsing and societal division awaits.

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Budget 2022 arrives with amazing news about Ireland’s fiscal position. For once it is unambiguously good news. Why not spend all those extra tax revenues on much needed infrastructure? Health and housing?

If you read much of Irish media and listen to opposition politicians, Ireland resembles a dystopian hell-hole. Others - inevitably outsiders - see the country as one of the most prosperous places on earth. One of the mysteries of the age is why the coalition allows the opposition to control the narrative.

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Ireland’s tax take is extremely buoyant, at least for the first 9 months of the year. What to spend all the money on? can it last?

Boris Johnson has discovered an economic ideology. One that makes no sense whatsoever but is an interesting departure. He is finally accountable for something that can be measured. But Tories don’t like ideologies, least of all one that is a sort of anti-business Neanderthal Thatcherism.

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The world economy is slowing down. Asia, including China, is weakening. European indicators are flashing Amber. Britain’s bosses are warning about a collapse in confidence. The energy shock, if it persists, could lead to even

more trouble.

A small thing perhaps, but a British minister has, finally, admitted that Brexit involves an economic ‘transition’. That’s code for ‘problem’. Maybe even ‘trouble’. Cast in the language of ‘moving from one equilibrium to another’. It’s school-level economics. Remember: there is no plan. Restricting immigration, raising taxes and throwing sand in the wheels of trade are the three things they have done. The idea now is to sit back and observe the ‘transition’ to sunny uplands. It could be a long wait.

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Rising oil and gas prices join the long list of things joining the inflation party. How are central banks going to react? Is this the end of the long party for stock markets?

Is this an energy crisis that could bring the post-pandemic recovery to a juddering halt?

‘Conspicuous environmentalism”. Surely it’s time for leadership and honesty?

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We ignore history. Policymakers certainly do. But there is very little new under the sun. Duncan Weldon reminds us that we ignore history at our peril. And peril is where we are at.

There is so much in this unusually readable book. ‘Levelling up’ is at least a century old, despite Boris Johnson taking credit for its invention. Want to know what some of today’s Trump-Johnson-Orban leaders resemble Mafia Dons? Take a look at history: we are more often ruled by kleptocrats than democrats.

Jim and Chris have an enjoyable, longer than usual, but highly entertaining chat with Duncan Weldon about his new book, ‘Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through. The Surprising Story of the British Economy’. You will be surprised!

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Is China and it’s indebted property companies reliving the West’s Great Financial Crisis?

Gas prices and inflation and a cost of living crisis? Empty shelves for Christmas?

Regular journey’s by road and sea between Britain and Ireland: a changing perspective. A radically different perspective.

The Other Hand is completely free to read & listen. Please spare a few seconds and give us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Many thanks

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The annual budget circus has started. Love Island is more entertaining and only marginally less significant. Why do we do this to ourselves?

Years ago, politicians deemed themselves incapable of managing monetary policy and the all-important setting of interest rates was handed over to technocratic central bankers. Surely the same considerations apply to taxation & spending policies?

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