Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor.

Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conversation about anticipating the onset of big market cycles and constructing balanced portfolios for new regimes. They discuss the impact of idiosyncratic risks and geopolitical shifts; the evolution of public and private credit markets; AI's transformative influence on the global economy; the five major forces that create big cycles; and the interplay between sovereign debt, the U.S. dollar, gold, and central banks. To understand big cycles, investors must look beyond the headlines and through a historical lens, Dalio explains.

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a period of global uncertainty. One estimate from McKinsey & Co. suggests that demand for new and updated digital infrastructure will require an estimated $19 trillion in investments through 2040. Much of this capital will come from institutional investors. Supply-demand dynamics, the impact of new innovations, and the pace of adoption will help guide investors as they determine how to allocate their exposure to AI.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores growth opportunities and potential challenges across the AI ecosystem. Experts discuss sectors that stand to benefit from AI, intense demand for AI infrastructure, managing obsolescence risk, and whether AI can deliver on expectations for productivity and returns.

Our guests are:

• Richard Waters, Technology Writer-at-Large for the Financial Times
• Owen Hyde, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Jennison

Learn more about the AI boom by visiting Jennison's AI Resource Center (https://www.jennison.com/campaignCountry/en/institutional/perspectives/ai-resource-center).

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industries, from furniture to automobiles. But moving factories and building out domestic manufacturing capacity will likely face some speedbumps amid mismatches in labor, materials and costs. New innovations like factory automation bring their own set of implementation challenges. Understanding how the manufacturing outlook is evolving will be crucial as investors sort out potential winning and losing regions and industries. As factories prepare for the future, institutional investors are well positioned to provide the long-term capital that manufacturers seek to modernize operations, create more resilient supply chains, and grow.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a deep dive into trade imbalances and tariffs; how manufacturers are dealing with macro uncertainty; manufacturing's role in supporting labor markets and the broader economy; potential obstacles that could slow reshoring; and portfolio strategies for capturing opportunities amid a manufacturing renaissance.

Our guests are:

• Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers

• Julius Krein, editor of policy journal American Affairs and head of policy at the New American Industrial Alliance

• Josh Shipley, executive managing director and head of Europe at PGIM, overseeing corporate finance offices in the region

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores macro implications from taxes and tariffs, how policy changes are shaping the way investors allocate capital, and why economic growth could be more resilient against higher tariffs than in the past.

Our guests are:

• Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office
• Kimberly Clausing, professor of tax law and policy at UCLA School of Law and former lead economist in the US Treasury's Office of Tax Policy
• Jeffrey Young, Head of Investment Strategy for PGIM's quant team

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where volatility is testing even the most seasoned investors. While there's no single recipe for success, accomplished long-term investors tend to remain disciplined, shut out the noise from a constant whirlwind of headlines, and avoid emotionally charged decisions.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings lessons from Wall Street and the evolution of financial markets to help investors look beyond uncertainty and identify long-term opportunities. The discussion covers economic resilience and its portfolio implications; growth in ETFs; how alternatives can be well-suited for long-term capital; tax-loss harvesting through direct indexing; steering portfolios through unexpected crises; and more.

Our guests are:

• Barry Ritholtz, Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors that Destroy Wealth—And How to Avoid Them"
• Scott Bok, former chairman and CEO of investment banking firm Greenhill & Company and author of "Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing"
• Jim Devaney, PGIM's Head of US Distribution for the retail market

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition between great powers. Government leaders are increasingly focused on solidifying economic security through trade leverage, tariffs, sanctions and other measures. As a result, potential new investment risks and opportunities are emerging.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor discusses how investors can measure their portfolio's exposure to geoeconomic shifts, which economies and sectors could benefit amid a realignment in supply chains, whether the US dollar can maintain its global dominance, and investment strategies that could potentially mitigate risk and capitalize on new opportunities.

Our guests are:

• Matteo Maggiori, finance professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business
• Joseph Nye, political scientist and former Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government
• Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst at PGIM

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a "complicated logistical dance," as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—providing universal lessons for businesses and investors.

Amid a turbulent outlook, this episode explores how airlines are addressing a host of business challenges, from the threat of aircraft tariffs to volatile fuel costs and customer demand. Topics include business strategies that drive revenues and boost profits, the future of business and leisure travel, navigating antiquated air traffic control systems, the outlook for low-cost carriers, and reflections on United Airlines' turnaround.

Our guests are:

• Oscar Munoz, former United Airlines Chairman and CEO
• Jack Fitzsimmons, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's US Leveraged Finance Credit Research team
• Sean Goodier, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's European Investment Grade Credit Research team

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be leveraged to achieve political goals. Meanwhile, nations are laying out plans to increase defense spending—potentially altering the outlook for productivity, industrial activity, and economic growth.

With economic warfare becoming a lasting feature of the investment environment, new winners and losers based on country, region, sector and asset class could emerge. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores how economic warfare, national security concerns, and friend-shoring in global trade are creating new implications for investors to consider.

Our guests are:

• Edward Fishman, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and author of the new book, "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare"
• Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income's Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist
• Jeff Rathke, President of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University and former American diplomat

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices.

ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effectively during trading days. In 1993, the first ETF in the US emerged: SPY. With one trade, investors could buy or sell a basket of stocks that tracked companies in the S&P 500.

ETFs have since revolutionized investing. A combination of liquidity, diversification, tax efficiency and ease of access has helped ETFs attract trillions of dollars in capital. A 2019 regulatory update in the US, which made it easier to launch new ETFs, paved the way for further expansion, fueled by active strategies that are driving the next phase of growth. Offering access to actively managed strategies across stocks, bonds and alternatives, active ETFs surpassed $1 trillion in global assets under management for the first time in 2024.

Our guests are Matt Collins, CFA, Head of ETFs at PGIM Investments; Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox"; and Dave Nadig, independent financial futurist and former CEO of ETF.com.

Learn more about PGIM ETFs at PGIM.com/investments/exchange-traded-funds-etfs.

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player's hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors about sizing their bets, managing risk, and making better decisions for their portfolio? This episode is not intended to promote gambling or equate investing to gambling.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor delivers insights on the benefits of probabilistic thinking, the best methods for analyzing portfolio decisions, and how investors could develop a sound decision-making process for targeting returns - even when facing uncertainty and market volatility.

Our guests are Annie Duke, a decision scientist, former world-class professional poker player, and the author of books including "Thinking in Bets" and "Quit"; Tina Lindstrom, Head of Oil Derivatives Trading for North America at Marex; and Adam Papallo, Head of Implementation Research at PGIM Quantitative Solutions.

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.