The Pollsters

The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusinessNewsPolitics
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The Pollsters episodes

  • #68: Gurl, the nominee! And how is Trump like the NJ turnpike?

    Hi all! We have some great interviews--this week with Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac. And next week we'll have Courtney Kennedy from Pew.

     
    Poll of the  week: Breaking! People are not freaking out enough about Zika
    Are you freaking out about Zika? Well, why not?
    Harvard study on Zika  
    Gurl. We got a candidate.
    If you think Democrats are not unified, well, just look at the data.
    YouGov/CA poll  
    The General, AKA: Yikes
    Gallup has tons of great breakdowns this week of how different parties view the top issues, how Trump and Clinton voters view their own candidates, and how the two square off on everything. The bottom line: neither party is safe.
    Gallup on candidate traits Gallup on candidate issues Gallup on the top issues Quinnipiac on candidate promises  
    Who’s to judge?
    Apparently, Trump may not be that far off public opinion as we might’ve hoped. Why is this the final “off-ramp” for Republicans? Haven’t there been lots of other off-ramps?
    YouGov on judge ethnicity  
    Meanwhile, a real race is happening here!
    More people voted for their favorite Pokemon than in some states’ caucuses. Margie’s going to need Kristen to decipher this.
    The Pokemon election  
    Key Findings:
    Gurrrl. That’s it, that’s all I got. We have a nominee, and Margie’s thrilled that it’s a woman. Meanwhile, don’t get complacent. Team Dumpster FIre has some advantages, and that is worrying. And which is more dangerous--the Zika virus, or Donald Trump? We didn’t know that Pokemon was still a thing, but it seems like Pikachu needs a branding campaign. Call us!

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    39 min
  • #67i: Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac Poll

    Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac comes to The Pollsters' soundbooth to talk about polling methodology, students-as-interviewers, and what's next for their 2016 research. Find him on twitter here or here. 

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    57 min
  • #67: How is voting for Trump like premarital sex?

    Sorry we didn’t do an interview show this past week. Even pollsters have to take a holiday sometimes. In the meantime, you can catch us on WAMU’s The Big Listen. It’s funny!

     
    Poll of the week: Elect This
    MTV talks to Millennials, and they just want this election to be over already. We feel ya! Also, they just skip right over podcasts & head to a polling topline YouTube video.
    MTV "Elect This" release "Infographica" video  
    2016: Californication and beyond.
    California is next up on the primary stage. Exciting! Or, maybe not? Meanwhile, other outlets dig deep into the Clinton private email server, the importance of “narrative” and the Rust Belt states.
    Huffington Post/pollster CA tracker Morning Consult on Clinton email/speeches John Sides/Washington Post/Monkey Cage on early ads Kristen/Echelon Insights/College Republican poll and CNN Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies/Rust Belt voters Monmouth University on Gary Johnson  
    Moral values in decline  
    Are moral values in decline? Voters say yes, but what kinds of values are they talking about? And can you find something morally unacceptable but do it anyway?
    Gallup on moral values in decline Gallup on moral values by religion Gallup on top priority for next President  
    Five stars for all you happy travelers
    Margie is going to turn over a new leaf and write nicer reviews. Kind of like Russians.
    GetYourGuide shows world's happiest travelers The Atlantic on smiling  
    Kristen has the need for speed
    Meanwhile, Kristen takes in auto racing, with predictable results.
    The Harris Poll on America's favorite sports  
    Key findings
    Millennials are more engaged this election cycle I guess that's some political lemonade. It's dig into the data week! Although it all still points to trump being damaged but strong. What kind of moral values do you have if you're not prioritizing things like cloning, abortion or gay marriage? The kind shared by 98% of the electorate. Kristen is checking out new sports and I'm going to think about writing only kind reviews. But we'll do it all with smiles.

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    50 min
  • #66: Are the polls making you freak out?

    We’re back in the soundbooth--no noisy hotel hallways this time! And check us out this weekend on The Big Listen--a podcast (and actual WAMU broadcast) about podcasts. We really enjoyed talking to Lauren. As always, don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

     
    Poll of the week: get the government out of our bathrooms
    Voters in this recent NBC/WSJ poll show many don’t want any type of government in their bathrooms--state law or federal intervention. And very high don’t knows on how people feel about transgender use of bathrooms.
     
    Should you panic? Uh, no?
    Last week when we discussed the effect Sanders might be having on Clinton’s general election performance, we didn’t have a lot of data. But there have been a few more polls this week suggesting Democrats may in fact be slightly more unified than they were this time in 2008. The new CBS/NYT poll shows far more Republicans are divided than Dems, and far more feel Clinton can unite party than Republicans say the same about Trump. And more Sanders voters say they’d vote for Clinton than Clinton voters said they’d vote for Obama same time in 2008.Greg Sargent from the Washington Post has a good writeup on this as well. Gallup also shows both Clinton and Sanders voters don’t think Sanders hurting their party.
     
    Perhaps the dialogue among Democratic insiders is different from that around Democratic voters. This wouldn’t be unlike how Republican insiders have felt much more strongly about Trump than have Republican voters, even if, as Gallup shows, Republicans are favorable, but still not totally pleased with their nominee.
     
    Meanwhile, everyone hates everyone
    The latest wave of polls suggests there are lots of “nose-holders” and Trump and Clinton are tied. Can this be real? Can we trust the polls this far out? Many pollsters and poll-watchers have weighed in. The latest NBC/WSJ poll says Clinton and Trump are currently the least popular front-runners in the poll’s history. The ABC/WSJ poll said the same.
     
    There are also some new subgroup polls in the mix, such as this recent breakout of Latinos, and this new poll of the AAPI community.
     
    To sort through the onslaught of data, Norm Ornstein & Alan Abramowitz write  in NYT to “stop the insanity” Susan Powter-style, and Jon Cohen and Mark Blumenthal of Survey Monkey respond. Mark and Jon raise an important point--we need to be focusing on *why* Trump is doing well, and less on whether he is tied, or up a few, or down a few, as in this recent Vox dialogue with pollsters.
     
    Ask a millennial!
    Millennials want marriage & kids, but maybe not at the same time? As our resident Millennial, Kristen (author of “The Selfie Vote”) is not surprised. But the number of Millennials living with their parents--well, that’s pretty high. And don’t get us started on Europe.
    This year’s summer song.
    Billboard has a poll of the top song of summer. We don’t know if the answers will surprise you, but they surprise Margie, who clearly needs to get out more. And if you want to be part of Kristen’s musical tastes forever, you have a few more months.  
     
    Key findings:
    People want the government out of their bathrooms. Seems reasonable enough. Meanwhile--the 2016 race is the opposite of reasonable. But the polling is kind of consistent--so why is that what everyone is freaking out about? I’m going to freak out if my children are living with me when they’re 35. How did Justin Bieber come up again in this podcast? We can’t even blame Kristen--we blame the polls.

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    44 min
  • #65: A good pollster says: "You're going to die"

    What the heck is AAPOR? Well, just a whole lot of awesome! Kristen gives us a report. And we report from a hotel hallway, so apologies for the sounds of conference-goers in the background.

     
    Poll of  the week: What’s in a name?
    Washington Post updates an older poll of Native Americans about the name of the local football team. There’s a difference between finding a term offensive and being bothered about a team’s use of it. Regardless, it seems like good news for Dan Snyder. And the methodology is just as interesting.
     
    2016: We’ve got questions!  Polls have answers (maybe)
    Okay, Trump may be the nominee, but can he really win? Is he bringing new Republicans to the polls?  Or is he going to hurt the Republican party downballot (& Ryan)? Is Sanders hurting Clinton? Who should Clinton pick as her VP?  What about a third party? What do other pollsters & poll-watchers say? “You’re going to die”   
    The national race between Clinton and Trump is narrowing, per Huffington Post. Dems want Sanders as HRC’s VP, says Rasmussen Is sanders hurting clinton? Margie gives a shrug emoji, and not sure what to make of Huffington Post fav ratings Steve Shepard on pollsters trying to figure out trump, with smart thoughts from Kristen & Mark Blumenthal. Breaking! Trump has a pollster! An actual pollster! Who some say woudl be able to say “you’re going to die.” Well, that seems like a good skill for 2015! Is Trump expanding the party? (spoiler: no.) Chris Cilizza on “truly independent” poll: “truly terrible.” Meanwhile, is Trump hurting Paul Ryan’s  numbers?  PPP asks.  
    Pew on the sharing economy
    Some Americans have done none of these, according to Pew. Margie has done a chunk of them in the last 24 hours.
    Pew on the sharing economy  
    Graduation gifts:
    Congrad-uations! Get it? You’re going to get lots of cash, survey says.
    NRF on graduation spending. Key findings
    There’s a diff between offensive and bothersome. But I’d love to hear more research about Native Americans think beyond just the team name. Trump’s got a pollster! And it’s not himself! Expect  those poll-tested tweets any day now. We truly appreciate people like Chris Cilizza weighing in on poll questions. Truly. Are you a regular part of the sharing economy? That would make you not quite like most Americans? Congrats to our grad listeners! Expect cash! Not from us--from us you can get an RT--but cash from everyone else.

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    39 min
  • #64: Lice, Arby's, Socialism, & Donald Trump

    Go find Kristen at AAPOR! And Margie’s Austin tips include the 2nd street warehouse district and South Congress.

     
    Poll of the week
    Trump is less popular than lice, Nickelback. PPP, you gave us the poll America needed, but didn’t know it wanted.
    PPP on Trump  
    2016: Controlled Burn
    Are Sanders voters going to vote for Trump? And is the general really getting closer already?
    WV exit polls (Dem side) Quinnipiac battleground poll Survey Monkey/NBC Nate  silver goes on tweet rant  
    Longform is hot!
    People spend more time with longform on their cells than shorter content. Facebook sends more visitors, while Twitter users are more engaged.
    Pew on media consumption Pew on FB vs. Twitter  
    Socialism is not!
    Is socialism having its moment? Well, not according to Gallup.
    Gallup data on socialism and capitalism over time  
    Education:
    Students don’t  think there is too much testing? Unlike everyone else.
    Gallup poll  
    Swipe left if you want to go on a date to Arby’s.
    Kristen & Margie are launching a side-hustle of helping with your online profiles. Not really.
    YouGov on dating app profiles  
    Key findings:
    If “Make america great again” doesn’t work out, Trump can transition to “Trump: more popular than hemorrhoids” But how popular is trump compared to school testing? Question for further study. Longform is back in! Sort of like other retro habits like canning tomatoes. Or pencils. Is it too early to talk about how too early it is look at general election polling? Not for us! Good thing Margie's not single, because there doesn’t seem to be any dating app for people for Dem women who like white wine & oysters on the half shell.

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    42 min
  • #64i: Michael Dimock, president of Pew Research

    After sharing a panel at the Milken Global Conference, Margie corners Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center. They talk about Pew's mission, their latest study comparing online panels, and how he got his start. Check him out on twitter here. 

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    24 min
  • #63: Trump gets the nom! Margie gets a new gig!

    Folks! Margie has a new gig & we have new mugs. We’re almost totally a real show now.

     
    Poll of the Week! Are you Cinco-de-Mayo-ing properly?
    Do you understand the meaning of Cinco de Mayo? Aside from guacamole & margaritas?
    Univision poll  
    Indiana results: well, that was interesting.
    Meet your new nominee, folks. Fun, huh?
    CNN exit polls Survey monkey/NBC NYT/upshot analysis  
    Who knows? Pew knows!
    Does your online panel stink? Maybe! Who knows! Well, Pew knows, but isn’t telling you.
     
    Common sense media
    Teens & their smartphones. Yikes! I’m already worried. And i’m the problem!
    Common Sense Media survey  
    Mother’s day
    Moms want: a little R&R, and income inequality.
    PSB/Shriver poll on moms Stacy’s snacks survey

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    47 min

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