The Pollsters

The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusinessNewsPolitics
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The Pollsters episodes

  • #58i: Scott Tranter with 0ptimus talks Big Data

    We talk to Scott Tranter with 0ptimus about Big Data, the Rubio campaign, and how Republicans have advanced their data skills. Find them at 0ptimus.com (that's with a zero, not an O), or Scott on Twitter @stranter.

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    24 min
  • #57: Exit polls or it didn't happen

    Don’t forget to listen to our recent interview with Nate Cohn from the NYT/Upshot--he dishes on the headlines to one of his stories recently, talks about great graphics, and more.  

     
    Poll of the week!
    Boaty McBoatface beating David Attenborough for the name of a new ship. At least it’s also beating “I love big boats & I cannot lie.”
    NERC Name Our Ship
     
    Exit polls or it didn’t happen!
    How did the polls do this past Tuesday? And what’s next for the sleepy-town portion of the primary?
    AZ GOP poll
    Wisconsin GOP poll
    California poll
    Margie & Patrick (Kristen's biz partner) & others in fivethirtyeight
     
    A poll you may want to punch in the face
    Wallet Hub/Survey Monkey
    YouGov/HP on Trump rally violence
    Quinnipiac on Trump rally violence
    Gallup on Trump favs
    Trump vs. Clinton general election Bloomberg/Selzer
     
    You scratch my SCOTUS & I’ll scratch yours
    Merrick Garland polling shows he’s on track with past successful nominees. But there’s probably more to it than that.
    NYT/CBS on SCOTUS
    Gallup on Garland vs other past nominees
     
    From the department of obvious
    Women want a job that pays more. Just like men. Go figure.
    HBR on Millennials leaving their jobs
    The Upshot/NYT on careers losing value
     
    Thank you Easter bunny
    Does your family have a plan?
    National confectioners assoc poll
     
    Key findings:
    Boaty McBoatface might have a better chance of stopping Trump at this point.
    Is Trump inciting violence? Responsible for violence? Or making people poll about violence? Sadly, even these questions divide us.
    In the coming weeks, we’ll turn to something surprisingly less controversial--the Supreme Court vacancy.
    What do women want? Same thing as men.
    What do all parents want this Easter? A plan to keep the candy under control. Good luck with that!

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    44 min
  • #57i: Nate Cohn with The New York Times/The Upshot

    Kristen & Margie are both traveling, but we take time out to talk to Nate Cohn from The New York Times/The Upshot. He tells us about data journalism, data visualization, headline writing, and what's next in his 2016 coverage. 

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    24 min
  • #56: Beware Trumpism. And Robots.

    The Pollsters: We’re everywhere! Check out Kristen in Elle, check us out in The Onion’s A/V Club, and check us out in-person at the Newseum.

     
    Poll of The Week: The Robots. They’re Coming.
    The robots are coming for you. Just maybe not for us.
    Pew on robots
     
    The Superest of Tuesdays
    A great night for Trump, a great night for Clinton, a great night for polling, and a bad day for all of us.
    CNN results and exit polls
    Huffington Post primary polling
    Trump delegates in Chicago
    Trump delegates in Chicago, pt2
    Trump delegates in Chicago, pt3
    Huffington Post general election matchups
    Monmouth poll on Trump violence
     
    Welcome Spring!
    People have attributed this warmer winter to climate change.
    Gallup on climate change
     
    What the data say, or says, about the Oxford comma
    FiveThirtyEight uses math to explain English.
     
    Key findings
    When it comes to polling, and The Pollsters, the hits just keep on coming.
    We may not welcome our new Trump overlord, but we do welcome our new robot overlords.
    And robots do anything about climate change? b/c that’s what people think is behind this warm weather.
    The data *are* clear--the Oxford comma is the winner.
     

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    35 min
  • #55: Michi-can or Michi-can't you trust the polls?

    Do you need an excuse to watch the new F/X OJ Simpson series? And do you need more yoga, more podcasts, or more women commentary? On all fronts, we got you covered.

     
    Michi-can or Michi-can’t trust the polls?
    The Sanders Michigan upset had a lot of folks doing their usual polling handwringing. But don’t panic!
    FiveThirtyEight on MI
    Politico on MI
    WP on Michigan
    HP/Pollster on Michigan
    FiveThirtyEight on Sanders vs. Clinton voters
     
    NeverTrump?
    What can we say about Trump and his supporters? Does he do well because of his hateful language, or despite it?
    Morning Consult
    YouGov/HP Trump question at the Democratic debate
    WP study on Trump voters
    Gallup on each GOP candidate's voters
    WP study on authoritarianism
     
    We are the 14-49%!
    C’mon producers/hosts, you can do better! Studies show between 14-49% of 2016 prime-time AM/PM talkers are women.
    VOX/CAWP study of women talkers
     
    You are the 21%!
    Hey, podcasts are totally a thing now. Forget the Serial effect, more like The Pollsters effect.
    Edison Research infinite dial
     
    Just breathe
    Margie went to Tulum for relaxation, and she found...polling.
    Yoga Journal poll
     
    Key Findings
    The moral of the Michigan michigoss: 1) we need more polling! and 2) we’re going to get more polling!
    Is Trump doing well because people are responding to racist language? or because they’re responding to his clarity of message? Or because they hate the establishment? No matter the answer, isn’t it time for all hands on deck?
    Remember you are already on the cutting edge of two trends: listening to women commentators and podcasting.
    If primary season is still getting you down, try some yoga, where women rule, and actual hand size is sometimes relevant, not some childish insult.

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    47 min
  • #55i: Peter Shulman with @histopinion

    We talk to historian Peter Shulman, who regularly travels in the polling hot tub time machine to find public opinion artifacts. Check out his twitter handle @histopinion.

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    16 min
  • #54: From Super Tuesday To Wacky Wednesday

    The Pollsters is now twice a week! You may not be able to stop Donald Trump, but you are able to encourage us to change our format. We’ve gone from Super Tuesday to Walking Dead Wednesday--we’re running on fumes, folks. Sorry!

     
    Super Tuesday, Wacky Wednesday
    NYT has the best way to look at the exit poll data. Pay attention, data viz folks! Dems & GOP.
    From the Way Back Machine of last week: Bloomberg/Purple primary GOP poll that asked about pope vs. trump. Margie was wrong!!
    Meanwhile, Melania.
    And meanwhile, Michigan.
     
    Cosmo: Ask A Millennial!
    Cosmo/Millennial women poll. How about next time they Ask a Millennial?
     
    Ask a Reddit Bro:
    Not many people use Reddit, but those who do get their news there.
    Pew on Reddit & news consumption
     
    Oscars so...underpolled?
    Oscars seem to beat the Grammys as far as relevance, but maybe not as far as diversity?
    YouGov on oscars
     
    Key findings:
    Lots of voting, lots of exit polls, but maybe the race is exactly in the same spot as it was Monday.
    If the Pope can’t defeat Trump, then only the entire country workign together can do it.
    Cosmo: Some polling tips to make your audience go wild! Next time: ask a Millennial!
    Meanwhile, if you want to know where the bernie dudes are, check Reddit.
    Oscars so...Important? White? Over? Long? E, all of the above, please!

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    44 min
  • #54i: John Aristotle Phillips with Predictit

    It's our first move into our new twice/week format, with our interview with John Aristotle Phillips of Predictit. We dig into the world of political predictive markets, and talk about John's career building voter technology, and his early start into politics. 

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    26 min
  • #53: Leaving Las Vegas for March Madness

    The polls have closed, and the responses are in: 39% want a longer show that combines interviews with our regular briefing & 52% want a sep show for the interview. and 9% said “fewer interviews, bah humbug!” So--you’ve spoken! And we’re listening. So starting next week we’ll have two episodes a week: one with interviews & one without.

     
    Number of the week:
    Is feminism anti-men. Sadly, some men think so. We’re not anti-men, we want what you got!
    YouGov on feminism
     
    NV in our rear-view mirror. Where to next?
    Echelon calls SC using IVR. Pollsters get NV right after all. The GOP circus is headed to Texas, Florida & Ohio. The Dem circus is headed to Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma & Massachusetts. Get ready!
    OH GOP poll/Quinnipiac
    FL GOP poll/Quinnipiac
    Echelon Insights on Medium/SC poll
    TX GOP poll
    TX GOP poll/Monmouth
    Fox national Dem poll
    HuffPo Primary averages
    HuffPo General averages
     
    Latino Decisions
    The news out of NV for both contests was what happened with the Latino vote. But Latinos are far from monolithic, entrance polls are still polls, and both Pew and the Washington Post/Univision add context.
    Washington Post/Univision poll
    Pew on Millennials & Latinos
    McLatchy on NV Dem battle over Latinos
    Trump winning Latinos in NV
     
    SCOTUS
    I guess we’ll need to do a weekly SCOTUS segment? There’s lots of new polling.
    HuffPo on question wording
    Pew on SCOTUS
    PPP on OH, PA SCOTUS impact
     
    Apple of the FBI’s eye
    Hey! We found an issue on which Ds and Rs agree!
    Pew on Apple vs. FBI
     
    Ask a Millennial:
    What big news about Millennials almost beat “man sneaks into luntz focus group” on our Facebook page? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen. Although perhaps on this front Margie is more like a Millennial?
    USA Today on wine
    The Selfie Vote
     
    Even dog-owners don’t want dogs in bars.
    Dogs in a bar: no. Dogs at a dog-happy hour at a bar? Uh, maybe? Cats a grocery store? No! America, you’ve spoken.
    No dogs at a bar, says YouGov
     
    Key findings!
    Buckle your seat belts for March Madness! Even by next week we’ll have a clearer idea where the race is going.
    But no one knows right now where the November race is going--don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
    Meanwhile, the SCOTUS fight is already heated & it’s barely even started.
    Other things not heated: Apple vs. the government. Dogs at bars.
    Meanwhile, Millennials aren’t all bad. They drink wine don’t they?

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    45 min

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