The Pollsters

The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusinessNewsPolitics
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The Pollsters episodes

  • #42: The Deadliest Trump

    Micro-assignment time! Like us on Facebook & share a link to the show on your own feeds. Super-easy! These micro-assignments have really helped us grow the show.

     
    Kristen reports from Alaska
    Is Alaska a hard place to do research? Well, maybe a little easier than when Margie went there 20 years ago.
    NYT on whether Alaska is hard to poll
    FiveThirtyEight on Alaska polling
     
    Trump & Muslims
    So Trump’s polling savvy once again is making news, this time as he cites polls for his own extremist policy. But what do the data actually say? Also, Margie enters the Blue Zone.
    CNN on Trump polling citation
    Washington Post on Trump polling citation
    Pew study of Muslims worldwide
    Sun poll of UK Muslims
    Quinnipiac national survey on guns
     
    Meanwhile, Cruz Cruises
    Some hypothesize Trump’s statement comes on the heels of a Monmouth poll in IA showing Cruz on top.
    Monmouth IA poll
    Politico on Bush & polls
    CNN IA poll
    National CNN poll
    USNews on CNN poll
     
    Campaign finance reform
    We talked about this with Sanders pollster Ben Tulchin last week: there is a diff between opposing money in campaigns & being a single-issue campaign finance reform voter. but new Pew data shows this is a particularly bipartisan issue:
    Pew & campaign finance reform
     
    UK polling: what went wrong?
    We’d love to have Antony Wells back on, or talk to others who polled in the UK. But YouGov has come out with its report, and we suggest you take a look at what they found accounted for their error in predicting a strong Conservative win.
    YouGov report
     
    Key findings:
    There are some things polls shouldn’t help us do, and that’s develop likely unconstitutional policies.
    But, if we’re going to look at polling among muslims, the results are not even close to being as clear-cut as Trump believes.
    Meanwhile--there are some things Margie says are in fact popular--preventing terrorists from getting guns & limiting campaign spending.
    All this means the GOP race is particularly roiling & volatile this week. That we can also tell from the polling.

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    46 min
  • #41: Feeling the Bern with Sanders' Pollster

    Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! Here they are again--they’re all super short:

    Write a quick review on iTunes or Stitcher.
    Tweet or share on Facebook the links to the show. You can also link to Soundcloud or Pocketcasts.
    Submit a recommendation for the show to NPR’s Earbud.FM.
     
    Big number of the week: 41% of Americans trying to lose weight, a new low.
    Gallup says, good job America!
     
    Creepy poll of the week, from Echelon Insights
    No, I haven’t thought about these candidates, what are you talking about? Aside from Trump, that is.
     
    The GOP field
    Trump still leads, or does he? It may depend on who you talk to and how they’ve been called.
    FiveThirtyEight on Trump online vs. live calls
    Reuters
    Huffington Post
    Quinnpiac
     
    Ben Tulchin feeling the Bern
    We talk to Sanders campaign pollster Ben Tulchin of Tulchin Research. He walks us through the public polling on the Democratic side, and why the media has got it wrong.
    Tulchin memo
    Time Magazine
     
    This Week in Ask a Millennial
    We ask our resident Millennial (Kristen) about Millennials and smartphones. And tablets. And laptops.
    Pew on device ownership
    The Selfie Vote
     
    Big game hunting poll
    Marist poll finds clear majorities oppose big game hunting. Maybe a new bipartisan issue?
    Marist on Big Game hunting
     
    Key Findings:
    Whether you’re feeling the post-Thanksgiving exercise & diet burn, or the Sanders bern, there are  numbers to help you find your tribe. Seems like dieting is down. Sanders, maybe up?
    Although we’re feeling the bern by both Trump & Justin Bieber. Sigh. Our twitter skills need more work i guess.
    Millennials are maybe not as connected as we had all thought?
    But that shouldn’t stop you guys from writing reviews, tweeting out a recommendation for the show, or submitting our show to earbud.fm.
    And, maybe we found another issue that might have cross-demo appeal: banning big game hunting. Candidates take note.

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    51 min
  • #40: Twitter, Turkeys & Thanksgiving

    Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! The theme this week is Twitter, so micro-assignment #3 is to tweet out a recommendation to the show with a link. The link is important! You can use this iTunes link, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Pocketcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also RT links from our Twitter feed.

     
    Security 
    Whether it’s ISIS, the refugee crisis, or racial tensions here at home, the polling shows Americans are worried.
    WP/ABC poll
    Bloomberg/Selzer
    Fox News poll
    The Sun (UK) poll of Muslims
    The Sun poll methodology
    CNN/KFF poll on race
     
    Let’s talk Twitter with Adam Sharp
    Twitter polls, Twitter sentiment, and our own true Twitter confessions. We talk to Adam Sharp, head of Campaigns, Elections, News & Government at Twitter.
    @AdamS
    @gov
     
    2016 Update
    Carson’s had a tough week, which seems to help Cruz. What can stop Trump? Seemingly nothing. And what’s going on on the Democratic side?
    Huffington Post/pollster
    CBS/YouGov
     
    Pass the Government Roles please
    People may want smaller government, but even Republicans see a government role for education and the environment.
    Pew poll
     
    Millennials like censorship and Snapchat 
    Millennials are more likely to support censoring than any other group. And can they be reached on Snapchat? We talk to our resident Millennial expert: Kristen.
    Pew study on Millennials
    Washington Post on Snapchat poll
    Politico on Snapchat poll
    The Selfie Vote
     
    Let’s talk about Adele, and, uh, Justin Bieber
    Are you alone in your love for Adele? (No.) What about Kristen’s love of Justin Bieber? (Yes.)
    PPP on musicians
     
    We give thanks to polling
    Do the guys at 538 even listen to this show? Let’s find out! And we weigh in on green bean casserole and shopping.
    538 on side dishes
    Arthur Brooks/NYT on giving thanks
    PPP on Thanksgiving
     
    Key Findings
    Whether it’s about refugee crisis, race, role of government, or turkey, please take this week to say something nice about someone of the other party--even (especially!?) if that person is in your family.
    And, while you’re at it, say something nice about us. On Twitter.

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    1 hr 16 min
  • #39: Chuck Todd's Tough Talk

    Thanks for all your hard work on your micro-assignments! We shuffle our papers in salute. Here’s micro-assignment #2: Go to NPR’s Earbud.FM & suggest they add us to their list of recommended shows. It’ll only take 60 seconds! The link is here. And if you take a screen shot and send it to us, we’ll give you a shoutout!.

     
    Post-Paris Polling
    Reuters and others have some early polling suggesting an immediate bump in the salience of terrorism. There is also some fascinating historical polling from the 1930s about accepting refugees. Will this debate fall into traditional fault lines around race and inclusiveness? We hope not, for everyone’s sake.
    Reuters/Ipsos on important issue
    Reuters/Ipsos on which party has best plan
    Reuters story about recent polling
    @Histopinion goes viral
    Washington Post story on PRRI poll
     
    Dem debate
    There was a Democratic debate last Saturday, and three different post-debate polls tell three different stories. The truth probably somewhere in the middle.
    PPP post-debate poll
    CBS News/GfK poll
    WSJ/GCS poll
    Quinnipiac Colorado Poll
    Gallup most important issue
     
    NBC’s Chuck Todd
    Chuck Todd doesn’t mince word when talking about the industry. He sounds off on bad polls, self-policing, and the struggle with new polling experimentation.
    Chuck Todd
     
    GOP primary
    Seems pretty volatile on the Republican side. What’s next for Carson, Trump, Rubio & the gang?
    The Hill polling overview
    Huffington Post/pollster tracker
     
    Pew News
    The fine folks at Pew released two interesting reports this week about methodology--one on Latinos and one on improving phone samples. We’ll know you want to check them both out.
    Pew Latino methodology report
    Pew advances in telephone sampling
     
    Ladies--study up!
    Some depressing news about a gender gap in computer science & in financial literacy.Gallup shows girls are less interested in computers. Not only that, parents & teachers say girls are less interested & they’ll be less successful. And the gender gap in financial literacy is larger in the US than the worldwide average. This all makes us sad.
    Gallup on girls and computers
    Gallup on worldwide financial literacy
     
    AirBnB and Cuba
    If everyone you know likes to use AirBnB or wants to go to Cuba, then you’re probably younger and wealthier, according to recent polls.
    AirBnB
    More Millennials want to go to Cuba
     
    Key Findings
    The polling on terrorism, Syrian refugees is moving quickly, even if it along familiar fault lines.
    No debates for a while! Doesn’t mean there’s any shortage of polls showing both volatility & some consensus-building.
    Meet the Chuck! Chuck Todd gives the industry some tough talk on transparency and methodology.
    Follow Pew for their in-depth methodological reports, to make sure you’re buying the right sample & hiring the right interviewers.
    Macro-assignment: teach a girl to code. and how to invest.
    Air BnB: thrifty travel for the upper-income set.
    How Margie is like a millennial: the Cuba edition.

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    1 hr 13 min
  • #38: Polling's future, man buns, & our live show at Georgetown

    You guys are podcast-hipsters! Like the people who did swing dancing before Swingers. Or the people who have been doing paddleboard yoga for years. So we need your help to get more people to listen to our show. We’d love to double, or even triple, the number of listeners by the time 2016 voting begins. Can you help by doing these free 60-second micro-assignments? The first one: write a review on Stitcher. You don’t need to be a Stitcher user. But it will make it so people can stumble upon our show. Here’s the link.

     
    2016: Let’s get serious.
    The Republicans had a real debate this time! But how will the polls react? What about insta-polls and insta-groups? We’re going to talk about hte Dem primary next week, but check out some cool charts the Washington Post made using general election crosstabs.
    Post-debate poll in Time
    Luntz FG/NH
    Monmouth/SC
    IA CNN poll
    Cool charts from the Washington Post/Marist/McLatchy
    Marist
     
    Polling: What is it good for? Absolutely Nothing?
    Lots of people worrying about the future of polling. One thing is for sure, there is way more polling coverage. Is this good for democracy? We say yes, others are less sure.
    Jill lepore’s New Yorker story
    NYT worries about polling quality.
     
    Recent veteran polling.
    We record on Veterans Day and check out some polling about recent vets’ experiences getting help. It’s actually more positive than you might think.
    WP/Kaiser past polling among veterans
     
    Millennials and government jobs.
    Are Millennials less interested in government jobs than other generations? And what would attract them, other than pets at work, free dry cleaning, and free breakfasts? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen.
    Millennials and government jobs/Deloitte study
    The Selfie Vote
     
    A segment from our live show @ Georgetown: What are women’s issues anyway?
    The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service kicked off their women in politics speaker series with us! We recorded the whole show, and have included a clip here. We had great questions!
    Georgetown University IPPS
     
    Now hair this.
    Should Kristen get her haircut? Obviously, we consult the experts--the public. Take that polling haters!
    Gallup '71 on men's hair
    Daily Mail on women's hair
    Harper's Bazaar on celebrity hair
    More celebrity hair!
    Man buns (!?)
     
    Key findings:
    Voters say they wanted a serious debate, & it looks like they got one.
    But not sure we’ll see big movements in the top-tier, no matter what Carson bombshell drops.
    As the pollsters, we of course think polls are useful. But it’s up to us as the industry to make sure we’re helping people vet good polling from bad.
    We loved going to Georgetown! And we want to see women’s issues be more inclusive: not just abortion/birth control, not just for women, and not just for Democrats..
    Long hair is a pain. Polls show many like it in theory, but actually support shorter hair in practice. You’ll have to follow Kristen on IG in order to see how this turns out.
    Your 60 sec assignment! Write a review for The Pollsters on twitter. You podcast-hipsters you.
     
     
     

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    1 hr 18 min
  • #37: Walmart Moms, Kentucky Polls & Christmas Creeps

    Lots of exciting stuff coming up for The Pollsters! Our first live show at Georgetown Institute of Politics & Public Service. And we have lots of great interviews teed up for the next few weeks. Make sure you subscribe so you don’t miss the action!

     
    The Shark Tank Debate
    None of the CNBC debate moderators were dubbed “Mr/Ms. Wonderful” after last week’s debate. Rubio, Cruz and maybe Christie surged, Carson and remains strong. But what about Jeb?
    Huffington Post/YouGov on post-debate reax
    NBC/WSJ poll
    WBUR NH pol
     
    The Post-Hearing Clinton Surge
    After the Dem debate and Benghazi hearing coverage have settled in, Clinton seems to be on the upswing, even in New Hampshire.
    NBC/WSJ National poll
    Monmouth/NH Dem poll
    60 Minutes/Vanity fair
     
    But Carson’s Strong in the General
    No matter what the press throws at him, Carson remains the strongest candidate in the general.
    NBC/WSJ National poll
    Quinnipiac National poll
     
    Mass Media Appeal
    Trust in the media continues to decline, across age groups and party. No wonder candidates see a bounce when they pick a fight with it. And “poll” is a controversial word! Who knew!?
    Gallup on media
    Emotion and media bias
    Controversy and Sentiment in Online News.
     
    The Red-Grass State?
    Kentucky had a big election Tuesday night, and Republican Matt Bevin won despite most polls pointing to Conway. What happened?
    Survey USA KY poll
    Fabrizio Lee KY poll
    Vox Populi KY poll
    Harry Enten @538 weighs in
     
    Walmart Moms: We Interview Neil Newhouse
    We talk to GOP Pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies about his & Margie’s ongoing collaboration studying Walmart Moms. And he gives us his straight talk about what happened in Kentucky.
    Bloomberg on Walmart Moms
    MSNBC on Walmart Moms
    ABC on Walmart Moms
     
    Christmas! Coming sooner. Perhaps less religious.
    Pew finds a drop in religiosity. And others find an increase in Christmas spending & Christmas Creep. Related? Probably not.
    Pew on religiosity
    Christmas Creep CNBC
    NRF Christmas Creep
    Gallup poll on planned Christmas spending
     
    Key Findings:
    Clinton, Carson, and Rubio surge. While Bush and the moderators were the losers of last week’s CNBC debate
    But in the general, Carson still remains strong, and Clinton & Sanders almost evenly matched.
    Walmart moms across party lines feel few candidates are paying attention to their own shared struggles.
    What’s teh matter with polling in Kentucky? Everyone seems to remember pollings misses more than its hits.
    Christmas polling comes earlier every year, even while religiosity declines

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    1 hr 11 min
  • #36: The scary polling behind Halloween candy

    Don’t forget to write us a review on iTunes or Stitcher (or both!). We also have some fun interviews and events in the works. Make sure to keep up with us on Twitter and Facebook (and Kristen and Margie’s Twitter accounts) so you have all the latest.

     
    Congrats to the all-lady team at Huffington Post/pollster
    Go team!
     
    2016, GOP Side:
    Carson now beats Trump nationally. But which candidate has the steepest slope? And how does Iowa compare to New Hampshire and South Carolina? Most importantly, what does America’s pollster think? Get your pre-debate handicapping here.
    CBS/YouGov 3-state poll (GOP)
    Monmouth Iowa poll (GOP)
    CBS/NYT national poll
    Huffington Post/pollster (National)
    Gallup on GOP favorables
    Trump on the polls (pt1)
    Trump on the polls (pt2)
    Trump on his pollster
     
    2016, Dem Side:
    Clinton has had a strong few weeks. Although the national numbers look different than individual state numbers. And sample methodology makes a huge impact in the results.
    CBS/YouGov 3-state polls
    Monmouth Iowa (Dems)
    Huffington Post/Pollster (National)
    Huffington Post/Pollster (Iowa)
    Huffington Post/Pollster (New Hampshire)
    NBC/WSJ (national)
     
    Campaign finance may have its moment?
    In two early primary states a (slim) plurality of Dems say they want to see the next President reform campaign finance. Even GOP worried their party too close to donors.
    CBS/YouGov 3-state poll
     
    Now Hear This
    Several polls weigh in on how people view the Benghazi hearings--before the 11-hour marathon. Not surprisingly, high “don’t knows” for this one.
    CNN/ORC on Benghazi
    NBC/WSJ on Benghazi
     
    Speak To Me
    What do Republicans want out of an incoming Speaker? Compromise--or standing up for principles? Well, not surprisingly, question wording makes a big difference here.
    NBC/WSJ on Speaker
    NH/Bloomberg/NHIOP poll
    Gallup on Speaker
    Gallup on Tea Party
     
    Candy!
    What’s scarier: candy corn? Or Reeses’ cups for the allergy-prone? We tackle the tough Halloween issues.
    Huffington Post/YouGov on Candy
     
    Key Findings:
    America’s pollster is worried he’s slipping to #2. Can he pull out a win in the debate?And how often will he say “poll” onstage.
    Clinton is staying above the fray, and higher in the polls as a result.
    Campaign finance may have its moment.
    And Paul Ryan may have his.
    Meanwhile--there’s yet another divisive issue sweeping the country: candy corn.
     

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    52 min
  • #35: BIden, Bumps, BFFs & Canadian Reax

    Hello new listeners & subscribers! We love feedback, so don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. And our Soundcloud page now has a great archive.

     
    More Dem post-game
    When is a bump a bump? Clinton won the debate, but not every poll shows her gaining in the vote.
    Globe/WMUR poll in NH
    Herald/Franklin Pierce NH
    NBC/Survey Monkey
    Huff Post/YouGov
    CNN/ORC
    WP/ABC poll
    NBC/WSJ poll
    Bloomberg Politics/St Anselm/Purple NH poll
     
    GOP debate pre-game
    On the Republican side, many thought Trump’s bubble was bursting. Looks like the joke’s on us all.
    NBC/WSJ poll
    CNN/ORC
    Bloomberg Politics poll
     
    These guys know about the bump
    Pope Francis & John Boenher have a lot in common. In fact, both their favorables improved after their meeting a few weeks ago.
    Gallup on Pope Francis visit
    John Boehner rebounds
     
    Victory (for the pollsters!) in Canada
    Good news for the industry: Canadian pollsters called the popular vote just about exactly right. We talk to Elizabeth Sena from GQRR about her work in the ridings.
    Canadian polling
     
    The latest on guns
    After every tragic shooting, outlets re-test a battery of questions on guns. The results from Gallup’s recent questioning are mixed.
    Gallup on 3-way gun question
    Gallup on concealed weapons
    Gallup on single-issue voters on guns
     
    Millennial parents
    Oh, millennials. You know them, posting photos of their kids on Facebook, buying gender-neutral toys, using social media more than everyone else. If you’re still confused, buy Kristen’s book.
    Time magazine/Survey monkey poll
    Pew on social media usage
    The Selfie Vote
     
    Key Findings
    The Democratic debate: Where a win can be both a win and a draw.
    Republicans say: don’t bump that Trump bubble quite yet!
    We can really learn about a post-event bump from BFF Pope Francis & Speaker Boehner.
    In Canada, it seems pollsters can take a bow.  
    While the Democratic electorate has a debate over guns, there may be more single-issue voters on the GOP side.
    Finally! Some poll results that make Margie feel young.

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    58 min
  • #34: The Democratic debate winner depends on who you ask

    The Democrats debated! The press seems unified in who they think won. But voters perhaps say something else? And what are the trends in online polling, and all things Canada?

     
    Dem debate post-game
    Every outlet gives the ribbon to Clinton. But Sanders wins online and in post-debate groups.
    Fox News/Luntz focus group
    CNN focus group
    Sanders gained more twitter followers
    Sanders gains more google searches
    Sanders wins Google Consumer Surveys
    CNN/ORC Nevada & SC polls
     
    Trade/TPP
    Last week Chuck Todd grilled us on TPP and Democrats, but voters don’t seem particularly interested.
    Trade not a big search during debate
    Gallup polling on TPP
    Pew polling on TPP  
     
    Welcome to Snoozeville
     
    Not too much action on the GOP side this week. We do revisit the GOP Bloomberg/Purple Groups, and see which GOP candidates are earning the most trust.
    Bloomberg/Purple groups: Carson
    Bloomberg/Purple groups: Bush
    CBS national poll/GOP  
     
    15 for Pres, NOBODY for Speaker
    Lots of people want the top spot, and pretty much no one wants the #3 spot. And can you blame them, with poll numbers like these?
    CBS national poll/GOP  
     
    An interview with Nick Nanos about the Canadian election
    So while you might think of US politics & polling as a little rough & tumble, Margie interviewed top Canadian pollster Nick Nanos from Nanos Research--and what he says about Canadian polling & politics might surprise you.  
    Nanos Research
     
    LA Times moving online
    Another sign that media outlets may be moving online: The LA Times is experimenting with the methodology.
    LA Times experiment
     
    We poll therefore we are
    A study appearing in the New York Times suggests an easy fix for the gender divide in tech. Coffee makers and cool t-shirts!
    NYT on gender and tech
     
    Mama! Mum! Stop Cursing!
    Ford asks European kids what annoys them about their parents. Besides everything.
    European kids’ top travel gripes
     
    Key Findings
    The Democratic debate winner depends on who you ask.
    But few are asking about the candidates’ views on TPP.
    The most exciting Republican race this week is the one with no candidates.
    Canada is the “wild wild west” of polling, but if they offer $15/day child care, Margie’s moving.
    LA Times jumps into the warm pool of online polling.
    If you want ladies in your lab, try some nature posters and plants.
    Whether you curse or pick your nose or sing, your kids probably find you annoying.

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    1 hr
  • #33: Will Joe Show?

    The pollsters are everywhere! We crossed paths at the Institute for Politics at St. Anselm’s in New Hampshire. And we’ve been on the new Meet the Press Daily. Margie will be doing some Dem debate coverage at Huffington Post next week. And Kristen will be on the soon-to-be-different Up with Steve Kornacki. Also don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.

     
    2016/Dems: Will Joe Show?
    Recent polling shows Biden strong in the general--but can he make it out of the primary? New focus groups suggest it’s not necessarily smooth sailing.
    Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies focus groups
    NBC/WSJ/Marist
     
    2016/Carson: The Carson experience?
    While Trump may be tumbling, Carson continues to stay strong. He’s even the preferred candidate for primary voters who prioritize experience. What? And what does this all mean for the debate?
    NBC/WSJ/Marist:
    Politico: The GOP debate implications
     
    2016/General
    We try to explain the Carson phenomenon. A poll where “ballsy” is an answer. And Gallup makes a big, big decision.
    Gallup: government on traditional values
    Suffolk/USA Today national poll
    Pew Research on campaign climate
    Politico: Gallup gives up the horserace
     
    Death with Dignity
    California passes a new bill on death with dignity. Polls show this on the move, even when it’s asked in an outdated way.
    Pew Research on aid in dying
     
    Gender
    Sheryl Sandberg’s group Lean In and consulting firm McKinsey team up for an extensive--but perhaps dispiriting--look at gender in the workforce.
    Lean In/McKinsey
     
    Most annoying travelers:
    Are you an annoying traveler? Check the data (or maybe just say “yes”).
    Expedia study of travel etiquette
     
    Key findings:
    BIden mania! But can he get through the primary?
    Sanders mania! But can he get through the general?
    And Carson mania! Right now strong in both the primary and the general.
    One thing we know, even without a Gallup horserace, there are still plenty of horserace polls.
    Stay tuned for more Canada news next week.
    And be a good hotel guest please! Keep your flirting online--like the kids--rather than annoying all your fellow travelers.

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    46 min

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