The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusiness News Politics

The Pollsters episodes

February 17, 2016 #52: Fear & Loathing AND Las Vegas. The Supremes AND the Grammys.
Listeners! We have a question. Well, actually a survey. We have so many wonderful interviews queued up. But sometimes the interviews get a little long. Do you want them integrated into longer regular weekly episodes? Or as standalone episodes, meaning shorter episodes twice a week? Take our Twitter poll: @thepollsters.

Poll of the week: Now Fear This!
Now that people are coming to terms with a Trump nomination somewhere between likely to certain, some pollsters are asking how people feel about this: Scared? Or really really Scared? As often in this Presidential race, we turn to Canada.
Canadian poll on fear
USA Today/Suffolk on fear

Dem Side: Firewall?
Does HC have a firewall? And if so, is it Nevada, SC, Super Tuesday, Super Delegates? Something else? We thought we’d have to wait all the way till Saturday for some more public polling in NV but PHEW! There is some.
CNN/ORC NV poll
Twitter NE voter sentiment, study shows
Huffington Post/Pollster: NV Dem contest
Huffington Post/Pollster: SC Dem contest
Huffington Post/Pollster: National Dem contest
NBC/Survey Monkey national poll with race breakouts
Gallup on Dem candidate favs by race

GOP side: Fireproof?
Trump continues to breathe fire & not get burned. He can be a 9/11 Truther, or an Internet Troll, it simply doesn’t matter. And his base in SC seems ready to go even farther.
Huffington Post/Pollster: National GOP contest
Huffington Post/Pollster: SC GOP contest
PPP Poll in SC
Bloomberg/Purple SC focus group

The Supremes
No new polling (yet!) on the all but certain Scalia replacement showdown. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t something from the archives!
Gallup on Scalia, Supreme Court

You guys forgot too.
We kinda snoozed last week by not mentioning the Grammys, Valentine’s Day, OR President’s Day. But it looks like we’re not alone.
Rasmussen on President's Day
YouGov on the Grammys
NRF on Valentine’s Day experiences

Key Findings
The Democratic race is narrowing, but can it narrow fast enough for Sanders?
The Republican race is winnowing, but can it winnow enough to defeat Trump?
Whatever candidate you fear, we all fear week-long stretches without polling.
Soon the other half of America will be hearing a lot more about the late Justice Scalia.
Did you miss the Grammy’s? President’s Day? Polls show like us, you probably did too.

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43 min
February 11, 2016 #51: Pollsters, take a bow! And Joe Lenski from Edison Research
With New Hampshire in our rear-view mirror, Pollsters, take a bow. And then take a moment to write a review on iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.

In New Hampshire, the winner is: Pollsters!
The pollsters were right this time around. Are you surprised? We’re not!
Decision-Desk HQ
Final exit polls
Joe Lenski from Edison
Huffington Post/Pollster trends

We’re all news junkies now
Pew says almost everyone is getting news about 2016. (Hey, but what about podcasts?)
2016! You can’t escape it!

We’re all revolutionaries now
People seem open to a “political revolution” but also fear big government. Try reconciling that.
Vox/morning consult

Ask a Millennial!
Do Millennial women just go to the candidates “where the boys are”? We discuss.
Jill Filipovic article
The Selfie Vote

Key Findings
Take a bow, pollsters! Just like about 7 or so remaining candidates, we live to fight another day.
And by the way, be thankful that person breathing down your neck while you’re crunching the numbers is not ALL OF AMERICA. Because then you’d be Joe Lenski.
We asked a Millennial if young women vote according to where the boys are. She said no. I’m sure this means this won’t come up again.
People are more worried about big government than big business. But yet want to expand government. One of the many reasons nearly all of America is gripped to the news this election season.
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55 min
February 04, 2016 #50: Our 50th Episode! And 6 Observations From Iowa
We made it to our 50th episode! If you like what we’re doing, don’t forget to write a review on iTunes, submit our show to NPR’s earbud.fm, or on @thepollsters on Twitter & Facebook.

The polls of the week: Good news/bad news for Trump
A day without Trump polling in the news, is like a day without, uh, Trump polling in the news.
The Trump effect on federal employees
Bloomberg/Purple on Trump shooting someone

What happened in Iowa?
We took a break from listening to pollsters to listen to voters. And the lesson was...the pollsters were wrong? Is the sky really falling? We walk through six theories and observations.
FiveThirtyEight on post-Iowa polling
FiveThirtyEight on Iowa being hard to poll
Media shares blame (Huffington Post)
Echelon online sentiment
Kristen’s Medium post
Washington Post graphic visual of voters
Mark Blumenthal & Jon Cohen on their internal data
The New York Times on Trump’s polling
CNN’s entrance polls
Dave Weigel on Ann Selzer “silver standard”

Feminism
What’s better-received “feminism” or “the women’s movement”? Interesting new deep-dive.
Washinton post/Kaiser
Full poll
The Selfie Vote

Ask a Millennial!
How many Millennials say they’re likely to leave their jobs in the next two years? Maybe not as many as you hope?
Deloitte annual study of Millennials

Happy Birthday Super Bowl--And Us!
This weekend is super bowl 50! And we celebrate The Pollsters 50! Most people are celebrating with a party, and perhaps a new outfit or television.
NRF’s latest survey

Key Findings
Iowa, it was nice knowing ya. And poll-skeptics, just try to make it to NH without getting another fix
Ask a Millennial--to stay at their jobs?
Happy birthday Super Bowl! And happy birthday to us!
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49 min
January 28, 2016 #49: Iowa. Iowa. Iowa! And Frank Newport from Gallup
Last show till Iowa! It’s like the night or two before Christmas. Are you excited?

Poll of the week:
From the department of “correlation doesn’t mean causation” we bring you some good news for moderate drinkers.
Gallup on drinking and depression

Iowa. Iowa. Iowa.
Sanders has momentum in Iowa. Trump seems to be consolidating. What’s the role of endorsements? Or of ads? One thing pollsters agree: turnout matters dramatically.
CNN’s Jenn Agiesta on turnout
Huffington Post/Pollster
Prediction markets
The "America" ad
FiveThirtyEight forecasts

Frank Newport: “Polling is my life!”
Frank Newport from Gallup is sort of like our Podfather. And he should be yours too.
The original Gallup podcast

C-e-Who?
More than half of people can’t name a CEO. “Deeply disturbing.”
Edelman Trust Barometer

Nielsen tracking 2nd screens
Do you post on Facebook while watching TV? Nielsen wants to know about it.
Recode story on Nielsen social media monitoring

12345-Monkey!
World’s worst passwords! These are pretty pathetic people.
Your password is the worst, 2015

Poor Selfie Sticks, Nobody Loves You
We like “The Selfie Vote,” but maybe not selfie sticks.
The best inventions
The Selfie Vote

Key findings:
Drink up! Voting is about to begin. The easy money is on betting this will be a crazy year.
Will polls predict who wins the early contests, or polls plus endorsements, ads & conventional wisdom? We’ll find out soon! It’s kind of like 10pm the night before Christmas.
Even though Facebook & Neilsen are tabulating your fb posts about Cookie Lyons, trust in corporations is up.
Looking for a new password? May we recommend, ThePollsters?
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54 min
January 21, 2016 #48: Political ads, FiveThirtyEight, & UK/Canada updates
Don’t forget your micro-assignment: Send us a polling 101 question for our explainer episode.

2016:
On the Democratic side, the contest continues to roil.
Straight Ace (Metrix).
Huffington Post/IA
Huffington Post/NH
Huffington Post/national
Democratic insiders in Politico.
DMR/Selzer/Bloomberg poll

GOP side.
Not sure the debate changed anything, polling-wise. Although maybe there’s Kasich-mentum?
Huffington Post average: IA
Huffington Post average: NH
Huffington Post: national
MassINC/WBUR
Matt MacWilliams on authoritarianism
NBC/WSJ on GOP contest
Full NBC/WSJ poll

We talk to Carl Bialik
You say bialy, we say burrito. And we talk about fivethirtyeight, forecasting, and polling pollsters.
FiveThirtyEight poll of pollsters

UK update
Tories aren’t shy, they’re busy! New reports on “what went wrong” in the UK election polling.
BPC report
The Guardian
Huffington Post

Elephant in the valley
A majority of women receive unwanted advances. Like a mixtape.
Elephant in the Valley
Poll your privilege (in Canada)

Ask a Millennial: Judge for yourself
Is Judge Judy on SCOTUS? We Ask a Millennial.
College grad study of civic engagement

Key Findings:
Just like wildly fluctuating snow predictions, we have wildly fluctuating IA & NH predictions. Get your snacks ready & hunker down for the long winter.
If we’re teaching our children good manners, does that mean they’re future Trump supporters? A new parenting thing to keep us all up at night.
And if my children don’t become tech zillionaires, perhaps they should move to Canada instead.
And who needs RBG when you have Judge Judy? And who does better in demo?

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1 hr
January 13, 2016 #47: It's hot in Iowa! And Scott Keeter from Pew
Thanks for the great shoutouts all over the Internet. Next micro-assignment: tweet us or post on our FB page your polling 101 questions for an evergreen explainer episode we’re working on. We're @thepollsters both on Facebook & Twitter.

Poll of the week: Gig this!
One fifth of Americans say they’re giggers in some way. Kristen & Margie have their own favorites.
Time Magazine Gig poll

2016: It’s getting hot in Iowa!
The Dem side in Iowa went from snoozeville to snowplow. What does that mean? You’ll have to listen.
Huffington Post/Pollster tracking
ARG poll of Dems
Quinnipiac IA poll
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll
Monmouth Poll/NH
Washington Post on electability
Washington Post on electability (2)
Bloomberg tests the waters
Gallup on independents

Gun politics. How did we get here?
We haven’t talked about guns on the show for a while, but there’s been no shortage of gun polling, or gun tragedies. Margie has a new piece at Huffington Post.
“A partisan culture, not a gun culture”

We talk to Scott Keeter: Pew Survey Director. Optimist.
Scott Keeter is a loyal listener! So we’re excited to talk to him about his new report on improving likely voter models.
Can likely voter models be improved?

And just as we were reaching peak TV.
We like TV. But do we want to say we like TV? Gallup has some tracking. Meanwhile, it’s never too early to talk about next year’s Golden Globes!
Gallup tracking on way to spend an evening
Next year's Golden Globes

Key findings:
2016 is still going strong! Margie’s conquering her resolutions, we have an exciting race on both D/R sides, new friends & listeners, and Pew has given us a lot of new data and analysis to make us optimistic about the industry.
But partisan divisions still there--and that, as opposed to gun ownership, seems to be what’s driving views toward gun laws.
At time of peak tv, people don’t want to say they want to watch TV. But they do want more Amy Schumer & Jennifer Lawrence.
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57 min
January 07, 2016 #46: Cell phones, Ted Cruz, anger management & New Year's resolutions
Welcome back everyone! Hello Canadian fans! And everyone start looking for Kristen’s new column & web show at The Washington Examiner.

Poll of the week: An Extended Pollster Plan
Pew will call 75% cells for 2016! This is big news.
Pew announcement on cell phones

2016: Cruz draws Trump out of his shell. Democratic field unchanged.
How is the Republican primary like Margie’s Christmas vacation? Has Trump hit a ceiling in New Hampshire?
Field poll in CA
NYT Upshot/Civis poll and analysis
Huffington Post/pollsters trend charts

Anger Management
Esquire, Survey Monkey & NBC partnered for this latest study about the angry electorate. Interesting concept. Did they get to the bottom of it? We discuss.
Esquire Angry Electorate
Gallup: Government #1 problem

A poll of pollsters
Five Thirty Eight did a poll of pollsters, which makes us wonder, what criteria should we use to define the polling industry?
Five Thirty Eight: Most pollsters say their reputation has worsened

You say you don’t want a resolution
Most people are not making resolutions this year. But Kristen & Margie aren’t like most people.
Marist poll on resolutions
The life changing magic of tidying up

Key findings
Less than a month & probably a zillion polls to go before voting begins in Iowa. As the rest of the GOP field scrambles, Trump continues to dominate. Especially with the crucial non-voting, Democratic-registered Republican bloc.
Whether it’s racial tensions, guns, government dysfunction, income inequality, voters are angry about a lot of different things, but expect all candidates to try to harness that anger this year.
If you’re cell phone is ringing & you’re not sure who is calling, pick up! It might be Pew Research.
If you’re reluctant to make a New Year’s resolution, how about one to share some love for the pollsters on Twitter or Facebook, with an iTunes review, at earbud.fm, or in the coments at gofugyourself.
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46 min
December 23, 2015 #45: A Trump of coal & our interview with Morning Consult
Thanks for all the great feedback, gang! Let's all take next week off, but if you’re desperate for more Pollsters, listen to our interview with Chuck Todd (#39).

Poll of the week! May the polls be with you:
Just like there is constant Trump polling, there is constant Star Wars polling. That’s as close as Margie’s getting to a movie theater.
Star Wars poll on Rotten Tomatoes

2016: With candidates like these, who needs family?
Trump gets Trumpier and Trumpier, and the polls find both agreement and embarrassment.
People agree with Trump--even on things that don’t exist/PPP
CBS/YouGov IA/NH: Republicans “glad someone is saying” things Trump says
Quinnipiac poll shows even ⅕ of GOP woudl be embarrassed if Trump was president
Trump finally gets something right! And it’s about polling!

Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult
What can we learn about Trump’s support across methodologies? We talk to Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult.
Morning Consult's new report

Insecurity
Insecurity about our security is on the rise. Although views toward police improve.
For first time since 9/11, views on terrorism net negative, Pew
Americans more worried by terrorism than shootings, Gallup
Faith in police rebounds, Gallup

Celebrate the holidays like the Millennials
Those Millennials--they know how to pare down a holiday to its bare essence.
Monmouth on the holidays
Millennial & other generations on Christmas, Pew

Key Findings:
This holiday, no need to be embarrassed by your family when there are still so many candidates to be embarrassed by?
it seems like voters are increasingly worried about security & terrorism, but will it drive voters in the primary or the general?
Spoil Star Wars for Margie! But it’ll cost you.
Be like a Millennial & have a great holiday with your family & friends.
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1 hr 2 min
December 17, 2015 #44: Charlie Cook: A holiday bonus interview
We take a deep dive into the world of political handicapping with veteran writer and observer Charlie Cook. We talk about the role of polling in evaluating campaigns, how polling is not like art, and about the future of political journalism.
Cook Political Report
National Journal
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38 min
December 14, 2015 #43: Hi Serial & Star Wars fans! Welcome to our GOP-debate polling holiday gift guide
Thanks for all your hard work with your Micro-assignments! As a result we have been featured next to mega-hit Serial on the pocketcasts app. Hello, Serial-listeners! To celebrate almost being a legit media property Margie has a surprise, but you’ll have to listen to the show.

Poll of the week: Star Wars
How does one prepare for a major nerd event? With polling, obviously.
FiveThirtyEight & Survey Monkey poll on Star Wars

2016
It’s now no longer too early to get excited about the Presidential race. Even Millennials are excited.
AP poll on likability
Pew poll on excitement of race
Monmouth poll national
IA Selzer/DMR poll
WBUR NH poll

Muslim ban
No matter who emerges on top from Tuesday’s GOP debate, we know one thing for sure: Trump’s “Muslim Ban” will take center stage.
Roundup of polling on Muslim immigration
Frank Luntz FG

Ask a millennial!
Part of our ongoing series: Ask a Millennial. We happen to have one: Kristen.
The Selfie Vote
The Founders?
Harvard IOP
Pew on Americans being lazy, selfish, or...
Happy Holidays! Here’s a picture of a bear
CareerBuilder finds many of you are getting some weird gifts for your co-workers. Margie has a not-weird gift for Kristen. We have a gift for you in the form of Charlie Cook.
CareerBuilder survey of office gifts

Key findings
Still not sure likeabilty matters in your 2016 vote, although we’re glad you like The Pollsters
Your relatives will most likely be talking about Trump, Cruz & the muslim ban over the holidays.
We asked a Millennial about whether Americans are lazy. And she said no, case closed.
This holiday, don’t buy your coworker a sheep, or a roll of duct tape.
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44 min

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