The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusiness News Politics

The Pollsters episodes

September 30, 2015 #32: There's anger in the polls
It’s International Podcast Day! Have you sent out all your cards & gifts? Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.

2016
Trump has a classy pollster. Meanwhile, slow and Rubio wins the race? Are you ready for some Biden? We take a question from activist Deray McKesson. And Kristen has a new poll showing Republicans agree climate change is happening.
NBC/WSJ
Echelon Insights poll on climate change
Huffington Post/pollster average
NYT: Focus group of one

Boehner: Out. Anger: In.

Boehner has resigned, but it judging by these numbers, it’ll take a lot more to turn around these sad Gallup numbers on how people view our government.
Gallup - Majority want a third party
Gallup - Trust in media at record low
Gallup - To know Congress is to hate Congress
Gallup - People don’t even trust their own Member of Congress anymore
Bloomberg Politics/Selzer

So let’s shut the whole thing down?
Well, not quite. Most people oppose shutting down the government to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. Even Republicans.
Quinnipiac
CBS/NYT
Pew

More Canada!
Listeners, you’ve spoken, and you want more data on Canada. We’re here to deliver. Apparently releasing a poll publicly is “guerrilla warfare.” It’ll take more than that to raise an eyebrow in these parts.
Canada poll-tracker
Huffington Post
Globe & Mail story on “questionable results”

The most current polling on OJ Simpson.
We know you’ve been wondering: what is the polling on OJ Simpson these days? Well, the Post has been wondering too.
WP/ABC on OJ

Hey, what’s up listeners?
We love it when dating apps release their data. They should be called dating data apps. And among which group can talking about Taylor Swift get you a date?

Vox

Key Findings:
Our best pollsters pickup line may be, “Who would you prefer to go to Canada with: Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, or Ben Carson?”
Our worst pickup line: “Hey, what’s up Donald Trump?” And that may be how he begins his focus groups of one.
If you’re feeling despondent about the government, like most of Americans—celebrate International Podcast Day instead.
But we (and most Americans) hope you don’t have too much free time on your hands with a government shutdown.

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55 min
September 24, 2015 #31: Fiorina on Fire. And Pope-Mania!
Fiorina is on fire while Walker collapses. But the biggest political news this week is not the Presidential race.

Fiorina on fire
Fiorina turned in a great performance. That may be necessary, but is it sufficient? And kids want to know: does she live in a castle? And are Biden supporters celebrating this week?
Morning Consult poll/debate watchers
CNN poll/Dems
Bloomberg/Selzer poll/Dems

The Pope’s Poll-Mobile
Tons of polling out on the Pope. No doubt he’s popular. But both Catholics and non-Catholics like his open, authentic tone.
Echelon Insights/Hart Research/Shriver Report
YouGov
Pew
Marist
PRRI
CBS News
Washington Post
Gallup

More polling, eh?
Are you guys & gals following this election? Tweet us & let us know!
Like how we have “538” here...they have “ThreeHundredEight”!
Echelon Insights monitors Canadian Twitter action

Pew says online methodology catching up
Online polling is catching up with telephone, says Pew. At least the way they do it.
Pew methodological report

Fall is the best, because polling.
We’re partial to solstices. But also Fall. Boot weather!
YouGov on Fall

Read this
If you must email, keep subject lines short. And if you’ve made it this far, you’re probably not a Millennial.
Email subject length

Key Findings
Trump and Clinton still lead. But good weeks for BIden, Fiorina, and Rubio.
Pope-mania is sweeping the country. Politicians could learn a lot from him.
A tied race in Canada. Sounds excting!
Online surveys: yes. Emails: no.
Boot weather is here!
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1 hr
September 16, 2015 #30: Presidential Candidates: Nice Like Pumpkin Spice
Get ready for an All-American pageant known as a presidential debate. Who has been Pumpkin Spice with everything nice? We discuss.

Debate pregame
Get ready to tailgate, or homegate, for the latest Republican debate. Where’s Walker? And is there trouble in Trumplandia? Meanwhile, Clinton is feeling the Bern, but is it really about those emails?
Monmouth/NH GOP poll
Monmouth/NH Dem poll:
NYT/CBS
Marist/MSNBC/Telemundo poll
Gallup trump & religious GOPs
CBS news poll on Biden
CBS News Poll on GOP & Dem contests
YouGov on coup

No gotcha questions for pageant contestants
If finally a candidate could answer a question succinctly and correctly. Where is such a place? Ah, the Miss America pageant!
Washington Post on pageant answers, ranked
Washinton Post/ABC poll on Kim DavisGallup on pageants

The NFL is back, and NFL polling is back.
What is this football thing about which Kristen speaks? Thankfully, Margie can refer to some polling to help her figure it out.
ESPN survey of players
Tailgating survey

It’s always bipartisan in California. Maybe.
Some recent polling on the droughts in California suggests there may be some bipartisanship on views toward the cause of the draught, but maybe not on the solution. Meanwhile, what does this mean for Jerry Brown?
GQR, USC & American Viewpoint survey

Pumpkin spice and everything nice.
Pumpkin spice everything is headed your way. Do you have your emergency preparedness kit?
Forbes data on the Pumpkin Spice Invasion

White after Labor Day = yes. Dressy yoga pants = no.
Even fashion is getting in on the polling act. No longer need to poll your friends or officemates. Except if you want to wear office-ready yoga pants. Because that's just wrong.
Poll on white after Labor Day
Marist polling for Fashion Week

Key findings:
Lots of candidates feeling some sort of bern--whether it’s from Sanders or a barb from Trump.
Can we be bipartisan against droughts? What about coups? Maybe?
Fashion and football are great areas for polling,
but if you’re confused by the polls, just ask a beauty queen.

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1 hr 4 min
September 10, 2015 #29: The sound booth is a Trump-free zone (not really)
Hi new listeners! Last week was our best rated show ever--by a lot! So thanks again to Ann Selzer for a great interview. And welcome! If you haven’t already folks, please write a review on iTunes or on Stitcher--it makes a huge difference as to whether people find us. Or tweet out that you like the show.

2016:
We wanted to give a little bit of a break to 2016, with the CNN GOP debate next week, and post-debate polling to cover. But there was so much, we couldn’t help it. Trump and Carson continue to dominate. But Kasich surges in New Hampshire, while Bush and Walker continue to falter. On the Democratic side, Sanders leads for the first time in Iowa. But we’re still not convinced voters are rejecting Clinton. And Biden is strong too.

CNN/ORC polling
Quinnipiac polling
NBC/Marist toplines for NH & IA.
New Monmouth National poll/Dems
Gallup polling on Clinton favorability
Labor Day
Views toward labor unions seem to surge, but that doesn’t mean voters are optimistic about labor’s future. And the most effective economic policy may be reducing gender pay discrepancies. That would suit women just fine.

Gallup on union ratings
Gallup on POTUS ratings among union members
Gallup on gender pay equity
Gallup on popular economic policies

Someone else not working on Labor Day
Is Kim Davis a good general election strategy? Is it even a good primary strategy?

Huffington Post/YouGov on Kim Davis

Millennials: “Who are you calling a Millennial”?
Kristen wrote the book on Millennials. Literally! What does she think about Millennials not wanting to be called Millennials?

Pew study on generation labels
YouGov: ⅓ of young Americans not completely straight
Pew on use of messaging apps (& instant delete messaging apps)
Pew Catholics open to nontraditional families

Gallup’s got your back. Get it?
These numbers are better than Margie’s jokes.

Gallup on Chiropractors

This new regulation probably changes everything about research
Should you start panicking about the new FCC regulations on the way pollsters reach respondents? Listen to this interview with Howard Fienberg from the Market Research Association and then decide.

The MRA

Key findings
Oh, we tried to give everyone a little break from 2016. Or a little break from Trump. Maybe next week, or maybe a few weeks from now…
Any pollsters or handicappers who said Sanders had hit his ceiling, or said Trump had hit his ceiling...well, you’re welcome on our show anytime for a mea culpa. (This means you 538 & Upshot. And everyone!)
Pro-tip: Millennials don't want to be called Millennials.
Meanwhile, polls suggest voters may want to talk about income inequality, and gender in the workplace, but not Kim Davis?

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59 min
September 02, 2015 #28: Iowans are trying to make Sanders & Carson happen
Welcome new listeners! Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes so others can more easily find the show.

2016: Iowans are trying to make Sanders and Carson happen.

So this big news this weekend is a Des Moines Register poll showing Clinton
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1 hr 4 min
August 27, 2015 #27: Back to school!
This week Kristen has some family time and we have a special guest co-host of Kellyanne Conway of the polling company/WomanTrend. Kristen will be back next week.

2016: We revisit four questions about Trump-mania. And get ready for Biden-mania?

Is it real? Will it last? What’s behind it? How does it affect the Republican brand?
Both Biden and Sanders are doing better in the polls. But does that really mean Clinton is vulnerable?

NYT/Upshot/Civis studies Trump
Monmouth South Carolina poll
Luntz focus group of Trump voters)
Pew shows 1/4 unfavorable to both parties
538 on Sanders
PPP/New Hampshire poll
Gallup on Hispanics' view of GOP field
Suffolk/IA poll
Quinnipiac national poll

Guns

Before the tragic shooting of two reporters Pew released some tracking of views on guns. Widespread agreement about specific gun proposals, yet the dialogue remains partisan.
Pew on guns
Gallup on parents and school safety

Back to school

It’s back to school, and back to polling. Kellyanne and Margie agree on something, prompting Beckett to fall asleep.

Gallup/PDK survey on public schools

Key Findings

Maybe the Dem primary is getting more interesting than the GOP primary? Could that be?
The polling on stronger gun laws doesn’t change much, and sadly the number of gun crimes doesn’t seem to change much either.
On education, there is more agreement than disagreement across demographic and party lines--even on our own show!
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45 min
August 20, 2015 #26: With friends like these, who needs pollsters?
Welcome new subscribers! You came just in time for silly season!

2016 (Dem edition):

Some good news for Biden? And are Clinton email stories driving--or simply reflecting--the current climate?

CNN on the Dem candidates
Fox News poll on Clinton emails
Monmouth on Clinton emails
Gallup on Biden
Quinnipiac 3-state general election poll

2016 (GOP edition):
Trump is still the headline, but a clearer picture emerges as to his ability to damage the party. And as Fiorina rises, Walker sinks. Should other candidates adopt Trump-ism on immigration? What about Republican issue stalwarts like labor unions or Planned Parenthood?

KSA in The Daily Beast
CNN on GOP primary
Gallup on immigration
NBC/WSJ on immigrationGallup on unions
Reuters on Planned Parenthood funding
Welcome to CrazyTown!
So i guess it’s summer silly season. Because in addition to all these polls we have feuds & fake candidates.
"Deez Nuts" grabbing voters in PPP poll
Trump: Pollsters make $200K a month
Luntz vs Stone vs. Trump in Politico

You need a friend--to help you wax?
How many of these things would you do for a friend, even if it’s national friendship week? How many would Kristen and Margie do for each other?
Skout survey on friendship
Key findings:
Maybe in a few months we’ll be talking about Biden vs. Fiorina?
Given Trump’s vulnerabilities, Republican candidates may not want to follow him off the issue cliff.
For 200K/month, we’ll help you figure it all out! And we’ll even split it! (bargain!)
Friendship may mean help with waxing or cats, but in DC it means twitter fights, splitting big retainers, & writing amazon or iTunes reviews.
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51 min
August 13, 2015 #25: Trump vs. Bernie
Last week we had our biggest download day ever! So now some debate post-game to follow up that pre-game.

Feeling the Bern in New Hampshire

The latest polling shows Sanders up in New Hampshire, but the interesting data is beneath the surface.

Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald NH Dem Poll
CNN/ORC poll IA Dem poll

Trump: 1st is the Worst

More people said trump did worst job in debate than said best job. Yet why is he still leading? Two recent online polls shed some light, including one from Kristen’s firm Echelon Insights. We also talk about the growing acceptance of online poll methodology, including Google Consumer Surveys.

MSNBC/Survey Monkey poll
CNN/ORC IA GOP poll
Echelon Insights poll
Washington Post/Monkey Cage

Pessimism on race

Both Gallup and Pew show more now worried about race relations. Although there are a few silver linings on hopes for the future.

Gallup on race: Release #1Release #2
Pew poll on race

Work/Life balancing acts

There’s no shortage of studies on work-life balance. Washington Post and the New York times make the economic case, and others show some interesting demographic breakouts.

Washington Post Poll on work after kids
NYT article on millennial dads
NYT Upshot 8/10 article - Can Family Leave Policies Be Too Generous?

Key Findings

NH is feeling the Bern! But the interesting stuff is beneath the surface.
Trump is still strong in the polls. Despite having the worst debate performance. Go figure.
Across the board people are worried about racial tensions.
And we still see major gender divides and struggles over work-life balance.
Perhaps whatever the topic, online studies are improving.

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1 hr
August 05, 2015 #24: How is polling like a crying baby?
Hard to forget a crying baby--whether you’re in a Maine diner, on a podcast, or if he’s standing next to you on the debate stage.

When polling is the story: The GOP debate
This week the GOP debate makes big news, especially the polling leading up to the debate.
WSJ: WSJ/NBC poll
Fox News article
Fox News Poll
Bloomberg: Trump Dominates in pre-debate poll
CBS Poll

And the Dems?
While not as big news as the GOP pre-debate polling, new polls confirm the primary narrows somewhat.

WSJ: Clinton loses ground with white women
WMUR: Granite State Poll

Top pollster takes Boy Scout oath
We talk to Lee Miringoff from Marist about their decision to not be part of the pre-debate polling.
Politico: Marist suspends polling
McClatchy: Marist suspends polling to avoid being part of debate
Miringoff: 10 reasons polls should not determine debate eligibility

Key Findings:
Polling is as much the story this week as the debate. But when pollsters find that troubling, then I think that’s a problem.
Even with all the polling, some story lines--like Trump’s bump, or Sanders vs. Clinton--end up being rorschach tests anyway.
If the polls are driving campaign news this far out, we have a long campaign ahead of us. Make sure you have subscribed!
Lastly, Maura Duggan has been the best intern ever! Thanks Maura!
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49 min
July 30, 2015 #23: Trump-mania
Kristen is on the road and Margie’s still in the closet but we head right into the eye of the Trummania storm.

Four questions about Trump polling:

is this bump real? (Do the polls reflect real trends?)
What’s driving it?
Will it last? Is this just a “fling”?
What will this do to the GOP brand?

Politico: What Trump Bump?
NBC/Marist Polls: Iowa
NBC/Marist Poll: New Hampshire
Bloomberg/Purple: Trump focus group
Monmouth Poll: Immigration
Nate Silver: Trump Nickelback
CNN/ORC poll
Gallup: GOP Familiarity/Favorability
Huffington Post: Grassroots Activist Republicans
Pew: GOP favorability

Cuba moves
As the candidates make moves on Cuba, Pew has new data on opinions on the changing relationship between the two countries.

Pew Polling Report: Cuba
CBS Poll: Cuba

Pot, Alcohol, Coffee, Salt, Fat & Gluten. Not in that order.
What’s in, and what’s out...of our bodies.

Gallup: Marijuana usage
Gallup: Drinking
Gallup: Drinking highest among educated, upper-income
Gallup: Coffee Consumption
Gallup: Fat and Salt
Gallup: Gluten-free habits
NYT: Americans eating less
Gallup: Americans exercising more

Book Banning
Plans on curling up with a good book this summer? Better act fast because some folks support ratings systems and even bans.
Harris Poll: Censorship

Summertime Overtime
Or maybe just email the office on your vacation. That’s what we do!
Roper Center: Vacation Time
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56 min

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About The Pollsters