The Prediction Trade

The Prediction Trade - coming soon!

Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events.

Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet.  Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races. Follow Harry Crane on Twitter @HarryDCrane, visit Researchers.One for his Models vs. Markets white paper and check out his website at harrycrane.com.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Politicians in My Eyes (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Politicians in My Eyes (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about “shy Libertarian voters,” wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey.

Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational.

 

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com

Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20

 

Follow us…

TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag

YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

 

Politicians in My Eyes (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate Zone Pratik Chougule Predicts a Wave TRADES Florida Blues Longshot, or EC Money? Follow Pratik Chogule on Twitter @pjchougule and hear him regularly on Star Spangled Gamblers   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp Politicians in My Eyes, (Death, 1974) is the theme song of The Political Trade. Courtesy of Bank Robber Music.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. TRENDS The Polls Are Wrong—Here's Why There IS a Shy Trump Voter  Correcting for Social Desirability Bias Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge TRADES (8) Swinging in FL, NC, PA & WI GA & MI Senate Seats ECMoV Third-Party Smarty THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT Hint: Three Coins in the Mountains Follow Robert Cahaly on Twitter @RobertCahaly and check out @Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group’s explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime.

TRENDS

• The Polls Are Wrong—Here’s Why
• There IS a Shy Trump Voter 
• Correcting for Social Desirability Bias
• Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge

TRADES (8)

• Swinging in FL, NC, PA & WI
• GA & MI Senate Seats
• ECMoV
• Third-Party Smarty

THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT

• Hint: Three Coins in the Mountains

Follow Robert Cahaly on Twitter @RobertCahaly and check out @Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org

 

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. 

Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com

Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20

Follow us…

TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag

YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing  RBG and the Debates 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: High-Performance Biden Hedges Swinging for the Swing States TRADES Popular Vote MoV Brackets Next European Leader Out on the Dime EC MoV Brackets THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX  This Swing State Has Already Swung   Follow Paul "Motty" Krishnamurty on Twitter @paulmotty and check out his blog at politicalgambler.com The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT Sign up for the TPT newsletter, ask questions and follow us: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County Line Florida, Man & NC State The Websites You Need to Know TRADES Buy Biden Better The Safety Dance If/When to Board the Trump Train THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT Hint: B2 for a Dime THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX  Hint: On the Green in Four Follow Jason Pipkin on Twitter @jipkin and check out his blog at predictingpolitics.com   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he’s sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night.

TRENDS

• Jason’s contest for political traders

TACTICS: Election Night

• The County Line
• Florida, Man & NC State
• The Websites You Need to Know

TRADES

• Buy Biden Better
• The Safety Dance
• If/When to Board the Trump Train

THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT

• Hint: B2 for a Dime

THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX 

• Hint: On the Green in Four

Follow Jason Pipkin on Twitter @jipkin and check out his blog at predictingpolitics.com

 

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. 

Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com

Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20

 

Follow us…

TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag

YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp