The Prediction Trade

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model's predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman's proprietary 13 Keys. "The Keys to the White House" is available on Amazon. Follow Allan Lichtman on Twitter @AllanLichtman.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort's clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market, and the big one: "Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?" Listen to more of Gov. Blagojevich weekly on the "Lightning Rod" podcast.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the former governor tells all, revealing his frustration, wisdom, populist insights and 2020 political forecasts. Listen to more of former Gov. Blagojevich weekly on the "Lightning Rod" podcast.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone's recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn & Paul Manafort that you don't want to miss. In Part 2, Vargas reveals some high-value prediction market trades, including a shocking Luckbox Lockbox trade! Follow Mark on Twitter @MarkAVargas and listen to him and former Gov. Blagojevich on the "Lightning Rod" podcast. TRENDS The Blagojevich Standard Kushner & Kanye Passing a Stone Haley & Cuban Ivanka 2024 TRADES Flynn Flam Money on Manafort Trump: I Beg My Pardon What's Special About Georgia? Popping in on Kim Jong-Un THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Silent Mojo   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas.  Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMicRot TRENDS Does Kamala Harris Move the Needle? Does Nate Silver Deserve Some Needling? TRADES Betting Biden Better No, Joe Isn't Gonna Go House Rules Florida (C'mon) Man THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Name That ATM (HRC)   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money?  Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he's negative on negative risk and three trade ideas. TIPPLES Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaebach's An Ard Ri TRENDS The Lincoln Project Goes Down-Ballot & Stone Commutes Home TACTICS Negative on Negative Risk & Trading the YES Side of Liquid Markets TRADES "Two-Cent Tammy" Returns to TPT in the Teens Strong Buy in the Maine Matchup: Collins v Gideon Flynn Clemency — Profit, Without Prediction THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Esper de Corpse The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Take our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3V6XFZX Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as “baselevel,” brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he’s negative on negative risk and three trade ideas.

TIPPLES

• Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaebach’s An Ard Ri

TRENDS

• The Lincoln Project Goes Down-Ballot & Stone Commutes Home

TACTICS

• Negative on Negative Risk & Trading the YES Side of Liquid Markets

TRADES

• “Two-Cent Tammy” Returns to TPT in the Teens
• Strong Buy in the Maine Matchup: Collins v Gideon
• Flynn Clemency — Profit, Without Prediction

THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX

• Hint: Esper de Corpse

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. 

Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com

Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20

Take our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3V6XFZX

Follow us…

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Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! Subscribe to David's weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and can't — know about the 2020 election here: https://t.co/d6naS4Kp6p?amp=1   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT   TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com   Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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This year’s Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West’s potential presidential bid and what it means for the stakes of the 2020 election.

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. 

Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com

More Free Money? 

Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20

Follow us…

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FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

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YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West's potential presidential bid and what it means for the stakes of the 2020 election. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money?  Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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