The Prediction Trade

Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama's fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends the episode with the highest-payout "Luckbox Lockbox" trade suggestion to date. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets' political biases. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets’ political biases.

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com

Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.

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Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade. TPT Mailbag Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt's Tweet Retreat & A Letter From Johnny Ringo TACTICS The Ultimate Intro to Mastering Negative Risk (101) TRADES Balance of Power in D' House & D' Senate The Highs & Lows of Trump's Approval THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Riding the Pence Train Scott Supak's negative risk calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDM8xaboXSNOba_d6D0cABd2huHrzLpWacabODKKVc/edit#gid=0  For more negative risk training, follow Scott Supak on Twitter @ssupak. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money? Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called “Negative Risk.” Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott “Sazerac” Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade.

TPT Mailbag

• Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt’s Tweet Retreat & A Letter From Johnny Ringo

TACTICS

• The Ultimate Intro to Mastering Negative Risk (101)

TRADES

• Balance of Power in D’ House & D’ Senate
• The Highs & Lows of Trump’s Approval

THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX

• Hint: Riding the Pence Train

Scott Supak’s negative risk calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDM8xaboXSNOba_d6D0cABd2huHrzLpWacabODKKVc/edit#gid=0 

For more negative risk training, follow Scott Supak on Twitter @ssupak.

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com

More Free Money?

Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.

Follow us…

TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

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YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

In this special episode, we walk Rachel "the Doc" Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts. Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:47) Part 2: The Election Whisperer Rings the TPT Trading Bell (19:52) TRADES The Electoral College Bets, Trump & the Popular Vote, Key Senate Races & the Veepstakes Take our first-ever listener survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3V6XFZX   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter signup, ask questions, give feedback and guest ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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Against the backdrop of President Trump’s Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt’s notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen.

TRENDS (10:23)

• Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets

TACTICS (22:21)

• Mastering the Tweet Markets: Monetizing the Middle with the Phillips Condor

TRADES (38:17)

• North Carolina & the Red State Blues
• Dental Floss Tycoon (hat tip Frank Zappa)
• Tammy Two-Cents Returns (from Episode 2)

THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX (52:03)

• Hint: What HRC and an ATM Have in Common 

 

The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT

TPT newsletter signup, ask questions, give feedback and guest Ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com

Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.

Follow us…

TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag

INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag

YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Against the backdrop of President Trump's Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt's notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen. TRENDS (10:23) Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets TACTICS (22:21) Mastering the Tweet Markets: Monetizing the Middle with the Phillips Condor TRADES (38:17) North Carolina & the Red State Blues Dental Floss Tycoon (hat tip Frank Zappa) Tammy Two-Cents Returns (from Episode 2) THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX (52:03) Hint: What HRC and an ATM Have in Common    The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter signup, ask questions, give feedback and guest Ideas at thepoliticaltrade.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

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In this bonus episode, TPT's Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports' Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida. Many thanks to Hard Factor's Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network.   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT 5-Star Offer! Want a free print issue of Luckbox? Email a screenshot of your TPT podcast review, with your mailing address, to [email protected], and we'll send you the most recent issue, no strings attached! Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Questions? Feedback? Guest Ideas? thepoliticaltrade.com

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TPT's Jeff Joseph moderates a prediction market-focused panel consisting of former guests Derek Phillips and Jason Pipkin as well as Pratik Chougule. Jeff asks the panelists about their trading philosophies, tactics and insights into specific markets on the PredictIt platform. This segment originally aired during hour four of American Civics Exchange and Old Bull TV's 2020 Political Prediction Conference on April 24. Special thanks to Old Bull TV's Flip Pidot for letting us share this segment of the conference on TPT. Check out Flip's show on YouTube or Apple Podcasts by searching for "Old Bull."   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription here: getluckbox.com/TPT   5-Star Offer! Want a free print issue of Luckbox? Email a screenshot of your TPT podcast review, with your mailing address, to [email protected], and we'll send you the most recent issue, no strings attached!   Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest.   Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp   Questions? Feedback? Guest Ideas? thepoliticaltrade.com

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