The Real Voices of the Game Productions

The Real Voices of the Game Productions

By David DagostinoSports
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The Real Voices of the Game Productions episodes

  • Episode 515 The Arm's Race with Jim Curnal and Dave Dagostino

    Boston Globe article

    Cole is hoping to return in two months, and he's not the only guy sitting in his doctor's waiting room: Several other star pitchers have been declared unavailable for Opening Day, if not the season — Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Sean Hjelle, Tristan Beck and more. And the accusing fingers are pointing in all directions:

    * At baseball front offices that demand more and more velocity;

    * At MLB team's analytics departments, which many say are on a destructive quest;

    * At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

    * At the Six Million Dollar Man attitude toward Tommy John surgery: “Go ahead, blow out your arm, we'll just repair it." The number of pitchers who have had arm surgery before being drafted or signed is exploding;

    * At Major League Baseball for rules changes — like the pitch clock and three-batter minimum — that pitchers say have put their arms in jeopardy;

    * At parents and youth coaches who see that scouts want velocity and spin rates and are ruining young arms while dreaming that their 8-year-old might one day sign a big-league contract.

    * At baseball front offices that demand more and more velocity;

    “MLB started a very, very, very big issue … decided that 97 [mph] was way, way, way more valuable than 91,”

    Fact: Skenes is Steve Carlotn minus Lefty's 324 W's 5,200 innings 254 CG's 4,100 K's

    Top 25 ERA''s 2023 - their Velocity

    90 1 86

    92 3 88

    93 4 89

    94 4. 90

    95 6 91

    96 5 92

    97 2. 93

    50% 94 and under 5% is 90 and under

    50% 95 + 5% is 91+

    2023: Top 50 - Velocity 96+

    ERA 2023

    Under 3.00 8

    3.00 - 3.50 14

    3.50 - 4.00 9

    4.00 - 5.00 13

    5.00+ 6

    40% ERA 4.00+

    56% ERA 3.50+

    16% ERA 3.00 under

    Velocity Leaders

    #4 99 3.76

    #5 99 5.27

    #7 98 7.18

    #8 98 4.82

    #13 98 4.14

    #14 98 4.75

    #17 97 4.35

    #19 97 3.76

    #20 97 3.86

    #21 97 3.90

    #22 97 4.07

    * At MLB team's analytics departments, which many say are on a destructive quest;

    * At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

    Spin Rate Analyis

    Results: ERA % represented in the Top 30 Lists

    Fast Ball - Top 30 50% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 4.50+

    Curve - Top 30 70% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 4.50+

    Slider - Top 30 50% ERA 4.00+ 27% ERA 4.50+

    Change - Top 30 77% ERA 4.00+ 30% ERA 5.00+

    Cutter - Top 30 67% ERA 4.00+ 37% ERA 4.50+

    Sweeper - Top 30 80% ERA 4.00+ 47% ERA 4.50+

    Curve Ball

    7 of Top 10 ERA 4.00+

    14 0f Top 20 ERA 4.00 + 9 ERA 4.50+ 3 ERA 6.80+

    Sweeper

    6 of Top 10 ERA 4.00+ 5 ERA 4.50+

    16 of Top 20 ERA 4.00+ 11 ERA 4.50+ 6 5.40 ERA+

    * At the Six Million Dollar Man attitude toward Tommy John surgery: “Go ahead, blow out your arm, we'll just repair it." The number of pitchers who have had arm surgery before being drafted or signed is exploding;

    Discuss TJ Recovery Rate - from my Analysis

    * At Major League Baseball for rules changes — like the pitch clock and three-batter minimum — that pitchers say have put their arms in jeopardy;

    “It's up to the owners and it's up to [MLB commissioner] Rob Manfred to protect us, and they're not protecting us at all. The biggest thing that's changed is the pitch clock. I would assume that is probably the biggest cause of the injury wave this spring..

    * At the chase for new pitches with new arm angles and insane spin rates, not to mention 100-mph sliders and sinkers;

    300 lb. Dead Lift with their arms

    While MLB teams want to protect their big investments, one pitcher stated there's also a belief that most pitchers are disposable.

    “At the end of the day, we'll keep developing new pitchers, so by the time you're hurt, we'll have a

    1 hr 5 min

About The Real Voices of the Game Productions

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