Recessions are often explained as the inevitable result of excess: too much borrowing, too much speculation, too much optimism, or some hidden imbalance waiting to be corrected. But what if that story is wrong?

In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller talks with Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil and author of Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It, along with AIER President Samuel Gregg, about what 300 years of economic history reveal about downturns.

Goodspeed argues that recessions are not predictable corrections caused by the excesses of previous expansions. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected shocks — from energy crises and natural disasters to financial disruptions — that interrupt economic activity. He explains why the historical record challenges the familiar boom-bust narrative and why recoveries, rather than expansions, are often the true correction.

The conversation also explores why humans are drawn to stories of blame and punishment when economies falter. From the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers and the public have often searched for villains and embraced narratives of moral failure. But those stories can lead to misguided interventions that prolong economic pain.

Paul, Tyler, and Sam discuss what this perspective means for today's economy, including debates over AI, technological change, and fears of another boom-bust cycle. They examine why we are quick to identify the next economic villain — and why focusing on long-run growth, resilience, and human flourishing matters far more than trying to eliminate every downturn.