This week's SAF Podcast is our now annual deep dive into the global SAF Market Outlook from SkyNRG and ICF. This year we were joined by Anna Liznerova, SkyNRG and Mark Kelly, ICF. After weeks of late nights and weekends on this extra curricular project they share key insights and methodologies from the report.

The conversation kicks off with the key takeaways from the report notably, Europe's role as the backbone of SAF demand with strong mandates requiring over one million tonnes in 2025, rising to four million tonnes by 2030. Despite Europe driving demand, it represents only 18% of global jet fuel uplift, highlighting the critical need for policy development beyond European borders.

Another major takeaway is Asia's remarkable growth, now accounting for nearly 30% of announced SAF capacity by 2030, overtaking Europe and trailing only the United States. The rise raising important questions about feedstock diversion, sustainability concerns, and potential fraud in waste oil supplies from the region.

The discussion delves into demand modeling challenges, examining three scenarios ranging from pessimistic, realistic and optimistic outlooks through 2050. Mark explains the methodology behind forecasting policy-driven versus voluntary corporate demand, while Anna details SkyNRG's production mapping approach across nearly 400 global projects.

The final and new section of the report, Mark and Anna give an overview of the "HEFA tipping point" – when demand for HEFA based SAF will exceed available sustainable feedstocks, likely around 2030-2031. This timeline creates urgency for advancing alternative pathways like e-fuels, which face their own regulatory and economic challenges. The experts navigate the complex interplay between policy design, investor confidence, technical feasibility, and sustainability imperatives that will determine SAF's future.

What emerges is a nuanced picture: despite delays and setbacks, the industry continues moving forward, though perhaps not as rapidly as hoped. The coming years will be critical for project development, particularly for facilities using advanced technologies beyond conventional HEFA. 

With the amount of developments globally in SAF, is 30 pages enough to cover the ground or does it need extending to a 200 page thesis?

Check out the full report here, it is well worth a read: https://skynrg.com/safmo25/

If you enjoyed this check out our previous discussion with Jim Stonecipher, EdyMac about the lessons industry can learn from failed projects like Fulcrum BioEnergy: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17395177