The Schaftlein Report

Schaftlein Report | How Big will the Republican House margin be?

Guest - Drew Allen 1) Republicans are currently leading in 4 uncalled races. 3 are in CA and the Lauren Boebert race in Colorado 1A) 218 Seats secured. Likely final number is 221 or 222 which would be a 7 or 9 seat advantage. B) Pelosi announcement 2) GA Democrats sue to overturn State election law that no voting within 2 days of a holiday. Passed in 2016 with Bi-partisan support. 3) Pompeo - "We need a leader who doesn't claim victim hood" 3A) Trump announcement scaring off nobody? 4) Karen Bass wins LA Mayor race - We'll break down the numbers 5) Title 42 ends at the border. Likely flood of illegals to continue. 5A) Lindsay Graham - "No immigration deal until border is secure"...We've heard this before? 6) Same sex marriage bill passes filibuster and likely to codify the law. No real change here as nothing is new. 7) No trace of student killer in Idaho or the weapon. 8) FTX Bankruptcy "Complete failure of corporate controls" new CEO who oversaw Enron. In my opinion, this will be worse than Enron.

Schaftlein Report | Trump Announces 3rd Run at Presidency Guest - Jeffrey Dunetz 1) 61% of Republicans say he should run 1A) 47% support him, 33% support DeSantis 1B) VP Pence - "There will be better choices", National Review Editorial Board - "NO" 2) McConnell claims he will win today's Senate Leadership vote. We support him. 3) DeSantis receives standing ovation at Republican Governors meeting in Orlando. 3A) He leads Trump by 7-8 points in Iowa, New Hampshire, FL and GA. 4) Republicans achieve 218 in House as CA-3 district winner Kevin Kiley declared. Media and AP not yet calling the race. 5) Gov. Abbott expands migrant busing to Philadelphia 6) Administration claims large amount of student loans will default. So what? They tried to forgive them illegally. 7) FTX collapse appears to show $1B in client funds missing. Will the Democratic party return $25M donated to creditors? 8) Missile as NOT launched from Russia.

1) 217 - 205 with 13 races not called. Democrats lead in 9 and Republicans in 4. 1A) Republicans meet today to to elect speaker designate. Kevin McCarthy against Andy Biggs 1B) Republicans need to figure out Mail in Voting. Florida they did. Elsewhere no so much. 2) Katie Hobbs defeats Kari Lake 50.4 to 49.6. Hobbs refused to debate. 3) Trump to make announcement tonight. He is upside down by 36 points among Independents. Joe and Mark discuss pros and cons 4) LA Mayors race, Karen Bass leads Rick Caruso by 52-48 or 29K votes. He spent $100M. She campaigned on abortion even though it is not a local issue in LA or CA. She was a crime victim of burglary earlier this year and rarely discussed crime or homelessness. What does this tell us? 5) Biden at 42% Approval post election 6) Core Producer Price Index smaller than expected as a possible indication of cooling inflation. It is still at 8%. 7) Biden Administration forces out Radical Border Commissioner Chris Mangus. Scapegoat. 8) Russian missile strikes hit residential buildings in Ukraine cities 9) Iran Parliament votes to execute 15K protesters

1) No Incumbent Senators lost. Republicans outspent $68M to $35M in PA and $30M to $10M in AZ. 1A) Inflation was top issue by 31%, Abortion next at 27%, but top issue for Democrats by 66%. 1B) Republicans gained significantly with Latinos losing by 21 but that is a fain from 2018 where they were -40. Working class latinos broke toward Republicans 1C) 67% of voters do NOT want Biden to run in 2024 1D) Trump WAS a HUGE negative for Republicans and looks pathetic attacking DeSantis and Youngkin. 1E) Democrats won voters under the age of 30 by 28 points, under 45 by 13 points but lost over 45 by 10 points. 1F) Then8% of undecided voters broke toward Democrats. Independents were about even and that is a problem for Republicans. 1G) Even though Republicans got 5M more votes, redistricting worked in Democrats favor. 2) The House is currently Projected to go Republican by 219-216 but races are still very tight and could go either way. For McCarthy to win Speaker post, he will have to deal with the Freedom coalition of very conservative members. 3) Republican Governors in NH, TX, GA and FL post huge wins by good governing. 4) The 2020 and 2022 Democratic coalition came through. college educated women were huge for Democrats. 5) Western states Arizona, CA and Nevada need to improve the speed of vote counting. Otherwise, the elections appears to be clean. This is important for election integrity. 6) A federal judge in Texas halts Biden Student Loan forgiveness plan. 7) 4 students killed in Idaho and 3 Virginia football players killed by former player. 7A) 27 shot and 5 fatally in Chicago.

1) McCarthy in line to become speaker if Republicans hold on in the house. Current projection is 220-215. 2) Run off in Georgia. Walker got 200,000 less votes than Brian Kemp 2A) Arizona and Nevada Laxalt up 15K with 84% counted . Delayed Counting is insane and wrong. 3) Democrats captured Single women vote by 30 points with single women saying 68% cast their vote on abortion and won the demographic age of 18-39. Republicans carried Married men and Women. 3A) Independents voted Democrats 49-47. Both parties voted 96-4 4) Democrats felt Abortion was the main issue 76%, Inflation 28%. 5) Biden says he plans to run in 2024 and will make decision early in 2023. 6) Republicans won 50M votes 52.3% versus Democrats 44M 46.2% a 6.1% gap. The Generic ballot was 2.5%. 6A) The losses were very close in Democratic districts. Not nearly as many seats flipped as predicted. Current gain is 9 which would be a 219-216 House. 6B) Democrats put money into races they needed to defend. 6C) Democrats won state legislatures in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania 6D) Finally goodbye Beto and Stacey 7) CPI comes in at 7.7% less than expected and the stock market is soaring. Core inflation was .3% in October. Medical Services, used cars, apparel and energy services lead the decline 8) Crypto firm FTX on verge of bankruptcy. Potential malfeasance 9) Russians announce withdrawal from Kherson, Ukraine

1) Governor Ron DeSantis +19 and Senator Marco Rubio +17 have huge wins in Florida. Dade and Palm Beach counties flip to Republican. $73M spent on Demings to lose hugely 2) Young voters propelled Fetterman in PA by 3 points in a total disaster for Republicans. 3) GA likely goes to run off as expected. Warnock has small lead. 3A) Nevada results not likely known until Saturday. Extremely close with 120K ballots outstanding. Laxalt leads by 23K with 80% counted. Potential only Senate incumbent to lose and best hope for Republican flip. 4) Republicans likely to flip House in much closer races with projections of 220-215. A +10 pick up. 218 Needed for control. 4A) Senate appears to show 49 - 49 Tie with run off in GA and the Nevada race in the balance. 5) Longshot states WA Murray +14, NH Hassan +10, Bennett +12 were fools gold - All blowouts 6) Johnson wins by 1% (27K votes) in Wisconsin. 7) Arizona is too close to call however likely to stay Democrat as Kelly leads 8) Vance wins big in red Ohio +7. Budd holds North Carolina by 3. 9) Kemp wins big in GA +9 as Abrams burns $105M and Abbott wins in TX +9. Arizona Governor race too close to call at Lake needs to make up 10K votes. 9A) Hocul wins by 5 in NY as Zeldon outperformed. House seats flip in NY. 9B) Mastriano crushed in Pennsylvania Governors race. 10) Early voting crushed Republicans. 11) Inflation and Abortion WERE the top issues. 12) This was a Disastrous night for Trump Republicans

1) Joe Biden is at 39% approval in the Reuters - Ipsos poll on Election Day. Mainstream Media polls have him in the low to mid 40's 1A) In the CNN summary poll of 5 accredited firms, the Biden approval sits at 40% and 54% disapprove. We believe this is accurate. 1B) The final Generic Ballot has the GOP +2. This is very good news! 2) Prognostications: 1A) Larry Sabato Crystal Ball Senate 51-49 House +24 237-198. Walker and Oz win. 1B) WSJ expects Republicans to pick up 17% of Black vote and north of 45% of Hispanic vote. In 2018 those numbers were 6% and 33% 1C) Real Clear Politics says Republicans +3 in Senate and +31 in House and +2 Governors 2) Johnson extends lead in Wisconsin to 6 points. Is Laxalt really up 5-6 in Nevada? 3) Arizona is tied and New Hampshire and Washington state are within are within 2 points 4) Oz picking up momentum in PA. is it enough to overtake the early Democratic vote lead? 5) Walker surges in Georgia. Can he hit 50% to win on election night or is a run off coming in December? 6) Budd in North Carolina and Vance in Ohio are poised to win by greater than 4 points each. 7) As we have been saying for a year, Inflation, Economy, Gas Prices, Crime and the Open Border ARE the Key issues. 7A) Democrats widely misread the electorate on Abortion, False Democracy Claims, Climate and Voting Rights 8) Schaftlein Report - Our projection is we will report on tomorrow's show that Republicans have won 50 Senate seats with Races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia still to be decided. Republicans will flip 21 House seats.

1) 40M Early Votes - Enthusiasm gap tightens as many races too close to call. 1A) say the county is going in the wrong direction and 77% want significant changes. 1B) RCP predicts GOP picks up 3 senate seats and 31 House seats. 1C) Fox News projects 49-47 Senate with 4 undecided and 23 House seat pick up. 1D) Cook Political Report projects 18 House seats and 538 says 15 seats 2) Biden Approval at 40%. Washington Post creates Bottomless Pinocchio's for Biden's endless lies on Social security, Inflation and gas prices. 2A) The Generic Ballot edge average goes to Republicans by 2 points. 2B) How will Black, Latino and Suburban voters go. Will the shift be as large as predicted? 3) Legendary coach Vince Dooley endorsed Herschel Walker prior to his passing last week. Walker surging but can he get 50%. Trafaler has him +2 4) Arizona and Pennsylvania races are tied in polling. Will GOP lead in Nevada hold? New Hampshire is so close. 4A) Vance up big in Ohio by 8-10 5) NY Governor race Lee Zeldon surges. Can he win? 6) Biden says he will close down coal mines.Senator Manchin is furious and calls him out. White House walks back the comment. 7) Biden has not yet call Netanyahu to congratulate him on Israeli win. 8) Crime report - 9 shot and wounded outside Philadelphia bar. 9) Major changes coming to border if GOP takes both chambers. Voters are furious. From Keystone, Afghanistan, Inflation, gas prices, economy, education, crime and border, Americans are fed up. 10) Tom Cotton passes on 2024 run.

1) Biden delivers unhinged desperate speech which will accomplish nothing. He heads to Blue New Mexico, CA and Illinois to campaign. Odd strategy? 1A) Hillary Clinton delivers "Basket of Deplorable speech 2" "The consequences of voting Republican" These aging liberal losers will come back to haunt Democrats. 2) General Don Buldoc dodged attack by an individual prior to debate in which he won easily. The suspect was arrested. Buldoc now +1 3) Oz now up by 1 in PA, Bennett only up by 2 in Colorado. If Republicans win Colorado, it will be a tsunami for the Red team! 3A) Johnson up +2 in Wisconsin 4) In a very odd twist, the White House took CREDIT for the increase in Social security benefit payments. Biden even bragged about it. The problem is the increase is tied to Inflation so the Tweet was deleted. 5) Only 17 % of Voters are happy with the direction of the country. 6) In Economic news, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 75 basis points an said rates would be higher for longer and signaled another 50 basis point rise in December is expected. 7) Musk said to be laying off half of Twitter work force of about 3,500 people. 8) The Israeli election - Jeffrey to provide a deep dive update as it can be confusing. Bibi wins as right wing coalition forms.

1. Biden now LYING about Social Security and Medicare in an effort to scare senior voters. Claims his son died in Iraq. He is NOT mentally competent top be President. 1A. His approval is at 37% in Quinipiac Poll. Republicans are +4 in Generic Ballot 2. PA court rules undated ballots will not be accepted. Finally common sense to election laws. 2A. Oz and Fetterman tied in Senate Race 47% each. 3. General Buldoc now leads in NH by 1. 4. Mike Lee up by 19 in Utah and Democratic plan to deceive voters with an Independent McMullen ready to fail. 5. Laxalt up by 5 over Cortez Mastro in Nevada Emerson College Poll. Super high gas prices are crushing voters over $5.50 per gallon. 6. GA Sheriffs across the state furious at Abrams for claiming they only want to arrest black men. 7. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon is tied with Gretchen Whitmer for Governor. 8. In Minnesota, Jim Schultz leads Keith Ellison by 7 in Attorney General race. 9. Netanyahu appears to have been reelected in Israel for a third time. 10. North Korea fires 23 missiles into the sea.