The Schaftlein Report

1) Inflation at 8.2% is not going down despite Federal Reserve Rate Hikes. The CPI was .4% translating into a year over year figure of 8.2% The PPI or core rate increased by.6% to translate to a 6.6% increase year over year Americans are struggling to pay their bills. 25% are delaying retirement Mortgage Rates are now 7% 2) Utilities were up 2.9%, Transportation up 1.9% and Medical care rose 1%. Food and Rent increases are also big contributors. 3) Markets are now expected to see a peak Federal Funds Rate of 4.79% in Q-3 of 2023. The Fed Funds Rate needs to be above 5% to bring inflation down according to Larry Summers former Treasury Secretary. 3A) The Fed is expected to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points in November and 50-75 basis points in December. 4) Biden claims "Beau lost his life in Iraq". No he did not. Biden can't even remember the cause of death of his own son. Another sign of his mental lack of capacity. He is in LA today and Orange County tomorrow looking for cash from liberals. LA City counsel President resigns after racist remarks uncovered on tape. 5) Polls; Johnson up by 6 over Barnes in Wisconsin. Vance up 1-2 in Ohio. 5A) In our opinion, the Walker/Warnack Senate race in GA will head to a December run off as neither candidate is poised to hit 50%. Potentially Republicans could have 50 seats with the balance of power decided by this run off. 6) Democrats are losing the Crime Issue and it continues to get worse. 7) UN demands Russia return annexed land. 8) We support Troy Aikmans comment about players wearing dresses after horrible NFL call. He should not have said his comment was wrong. All of the Twitter gays, trans gender lovers, radicals and white liberals are outraged. Good, let them be outraged! We don't care about their outrage. 9) Lidblog - Is Biden using federal dollars to help Hunter Biden with his legal issues?

1) Why are the Markets so obsessed with the Federal Reserve? Why do some investors believe the"war on inflation" has been won? Is it due to the falling commodity prices 23%? "hope" for a pause is not a strategy in our opinion. It appears investors are "wishing for a Pivot" trying to talk rate hikes down and throwing out bad scenarios to the media that is needed to curb inflation. Talking their book. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson says the "hope" is premature. 1A) The money supply grew rapidly in Q-2 of 2020 and beyond up to 66%. Now the money supply is falling 4%. With rate hikes, is this enough to slow Inflation? Can the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes work without a "hard landing"? 2) Treasury Secretary Yellin - "U.S. Economy doing well. It has slowed down after a strong recovery and based on the job report is resilient" The economy created 263K jobs in September and the Unemployment Rate is 3.5%. 3) The IMF and World Bank are in D.C. UN is concerned about Central Banks raising rates. 4) Jamie Dimon, the COE of JP Morgan says the U.S. should pump more oil and gas to help with the Global energy crisis. Biden says Saudi Arabia will suffer "consequences" for OPEC+ production cut. 5) Household spending is up 6% in September but down form 7.8% in August year over year. However the personal savings rate is only 3.5%. 6) Eggs are up 40%, butter and margarine + 30% and gasoline +25%. 7) Consumers expect Inflation rate a year from now to be 5.4% down somewhat from 5.75% in August.

1) Gas prices on the rise as are Heating oil. Administration feels the effects of self inflicted wounds from terrible energy policies 2) Jamie Dimon CEO of JP Morgan sees 2023 Recession as do many others 3) Administration proposes changes to worker classifications for gig workers changing from Contract employment to employees. This is INSANE and follow CA law. Lyft, Uber and Doordash stock pummeled. 4) Social Security payments projected to rise 8.7% in 2023 5) Tim Ryan goes berserk in debate with JD Vance in Ohio debate. He voted with Biden 100% and yet he claims he is a moderate. He is NOT. 6) Tulsi Gabbard leaves the Democratic Party. Better late than never. That party has been radicalized and does not represent American Values. 7) China and India call for de-escalation in Ukraine. Russia continues missile attacks on Ukraine 8) Senate still up n the air with 1 seat projected to flip for each party. House projection is for 20 -25 seat Republican gain.

1) Biden approval is -15 in 7 key swing states. The White House is constantly walking back his statements as he often appears confused. 1A) Biden is below 50% Approval on every top issue and is way down on crime and the economy. 62% say the economy is getting worse 1B) Democrats voting on Abortion and Republicans on the Economy. Who will Independents trust and vote for? 2) Crime:Gunshots at the home of NY Governor candidate Lee Zeldon as 2 people shot. Vegas killer was an illegal immigrant with a criminal history. NYC man killed in subway stabbed in a random attack. Also in NYC, 4 black women teenagers all with criminal records attack 2 teenagers on subway. Tyson foods to leave Chicago due to crime as exodus continues. 527 Killed this year. 4 teens aged 14-15 kill liquor store clerk over 6 pack of beer in LA 3) Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona declares Border Chaos Crisis in break from Democratic Party. NYC Mayor Eric Adams declares State of Emergency over 17K migrants in the city while 200K per month pour across the border. 4) Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers urges the Federal Reserve to keep tightening interest rates to fight inflation and abandon its hostility towards oil companies. The Federal Reserve is on track to raise rates at its next meeting by 75 basis points to bring the Federal Funds rate to a range of 3.25 to 3.5% 4A) The U.S.added 263K jobs in September and the Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% 5) Truck bomb takes out key bridge in Crimea as Ukraine continues to disrupt key Russian supply lines. Russia launches rockets into Kiev and other target cities in major escalation. 6) State of Florida finds 19 cases of Voter Fraud. 15 of the 19 were black. Palm Beach Post blames the policy instead of the perpetrator in classic incorrect racism policy. 6A) In Florida, blacks represent 17% of the population and 47 of inmates in state prison for felony convictions. Again, the Post blames the system instead of the criminal. America is NOT buying this garbage anymore! 7) Matt Rhule fired as Carolina Panthers coach. roughing call of Brady denounced as a joke.

1- Gas prices are headed up. OPEC+ cuts 2.0M barrels a day. Biden administration in panic ahead of mid terms. Administration was considering sinking offshore drilling lease sales. They now will continue releasing 1.0M barrels a day as our stockpile dwindles. 1A- Wall Street warns of Housing major slowdown 2- Democrats are unable to shake the "Soft on Crime" label as 77% of Americans feel it is a major problem. 2A- Nadler, Schumer, Omar and Pressley unable to defend Democratic policies. 2B- 5 people in Merced, CA family senselessly killed by a criminal who got out early. 3- DACA illegally implemented by Obama administration according to 5th Circuit of Appeals court. Court allows it to remain in place for now. Biden blames MAGA Republicans? Insane response. 4- Biden claims global warming caused the intensity of the hurricane to hot Florida. Meteorologists say no relationship. 5- DeSantis - "Send illegal immigrants who looted back to their country after their criminal trial for looting. Liberals are outraged. Good! 6- In Governors races, Hocul up by only 2 in NY and Kemp up by 5 over Abrams in Georgia. 7- Races are tight all across the country in the Senate campaigns. 8- Did the FBI hide evidence of Biden crime family as alleged by an insider?

1) Gas prices headed higher. Biden is powerless to stop it. White House "Disappointed". 1A) Home heating oil prices to soar just in time for winter. 1B Political Payback to Democrats just ahead of the election. We'll explain. 2) U.S. provides an additional $625M in aid to Ukraine. Russians leave behind bodies in the streets of Ly,am as Putin signs farcical Annexation order. 3) Biden Student Loan Forgiveness program turns into a fiasco given poor planning to no planning and ongoing litigation 4) U.S. National Debt soars past $31T. This is without Build Back Better which landed on the ash heap of history. 4A) ADP says U.S. added 209K jobs in September. 5) In Florida, DeSantis leads by 11 and has a 55% Approval rating. Likely sweep of the entire cabinet in upcoming elections. 6) Republicans narrow Democratic lead to 3 points in New Hampshire and Arizona. 6a) Democrats go all in to defeat Walker in GA. Backfire possible. 7) A Republican Governor in Oregon? Would be first time in 35 years. Currently up by 2. 8) Gallup has Republicans +5 in Favorability Rating 44-39 over Democrats.

1) Republicans are on the right side of the issues - 82%, 72%, 67% are top ranked issues 2) Biden approval 38% disapproval 54% 3) In Florida, DeSantis is +8 and Rubio is +7 4) NC Budd is only up 1 point 5) Democratic support among Black voters falls from 84% in 2020 to 74% today. No surprise as Biden policies are a disaster. 6) In Economic news, job openings fall from 11.0M to 10.5M 7) Oil production likely cut by 1.0M barrels a day at OPEC+ meeting tomorrow. Biden administration not happy after projections for oil price hikes 8) Home prices fell by 1% in September the first drop in 127 months. Prices are likely to fall much further. 9) Stocks are up big for second day in a row ; 5% gain in 2 days in huge bear market rally 10) White House continues damage control to Biden remark "Where's Jackie". Now he claims he was "raised Puerto Rican" Biden is completely out to lunch and clearly not in charge of the government. 11) NYC Mayor Adams claims Democrats have done nothing about the border crisis and drugs and illegal immigrants continue to flood into the country. 21 Year old Florida sheriff deputy killed while serving meth warrant is a consequence. 12) DeSantis blasts VP Harris over Hurricane Equity remark. White House has no response and dodges questions. 13) Kanye West claims BLM is a scam and is now dead. He is correct.

1- Favorably Rating R-44% , D- 39%: Generic ballot R +2 2- Al Sharpton - "Democrats are NOT Connecting with Black and Latino voters" He's correct 3- Sunday show the Liberal commentators ABC, NBC, CNN and MSNBC are cheering for Democrats as they see a sinking ship lead by Biden 3A- Abortion, Voting Rights and Climate are NOT the key issues. It's the Economy stupid - Carville 4- in Nevada, Laxalt +2 in Senate race and Lombardo + 3 in Governor race. Both are Republican 5- OPEC+ proposing to cut 1.0M barrels a day. Oil is up 4% today potentially headed back to $100. Gas in LA hits a record at $6.47 for regular unleaded. Yikes! 6- VP Harris - "Hurricane Equity" statement comes under withering criticism by both parties. White House can't explain and dodges the question. 6A- Pelosi statement on "pick the crops' going over like a lead balloon. 7- Ukraine troops gain in the south in Russia annexed territory near Kherson. 7A- H.R. McMaster 'Russian Army at breaking point". Troops flee Lyman after being surrounded. 8- Britain backs off tax cuts for top earners stabilizing their bond market. 8A- Japanese Yen falls to 145 as their easy money policies remain in place despite tightening around the world. 9- In our regular Monday Chicago crime report, 33 shot and 5 killed and no mention from mainstream media. They are trying with little success to cover up the Democratic soft on crime narrative taking place.

1) Potentially hundreds dead, 2.0M without power, winds clocked at 150 MPH fifth highest ever. Captiva and Sanibel bridges wiped out. 2) Harris makes ridiculous statement saying we have a "strong alliance with the Republic of North Korea". She is not quailified to be VP. 3) Biden comes under severe criticism over deceased Congresswoman remark about Jackie Walorski 4) Oz within 3 points of that radical Fetterman in PA 5) Johnson +5 in Wisconsin over radical Mandela Barnes 6) Democrats weak on crime policies are catching up on them. 6 injured in Oakland school shooting. 7) Mike Pompeo initiates campaign to root out Woke policies in the military. 8) Everything Democrats touch becomes a disaster. Republicans forecast to gain in Mid terms. is the Cavalry coming?

1) Storm Surge could be 15 feet, 150 MPH Winds,Widespread Power Outage 2) Russia to Annex part of Ukraine after Sham vote. Was the gas pipeline sabotaged? Americans urged to leave Russia 3) The Strategic Petroleum reserve is at a 37 year low due to Biden terrible energy policies. 4) Mortgage interest rates cross 7%. Demand plummets. 5) Democrats flip flop on crime as polling data blames Democrats. 69% are concerned about crime. 6) Biden's student loan forgiveness plan faces legal challenge. 7) Bank of England buys long term bonds to temporarily ease rising rates. Rates fall on U.S. debt 7A) U.S. debt is at $30T and represents 123% of GDP. Annual interest expense is now $600B U.S. economy is $24T 8) During an event, another Biden gaffe as he inquires about deceased Rep. Jackie Walorski asking "where is she". 8) My current Senate model shows 1 GOP pick up in Nevada and 1 loss in PA leaving the Senate 50/50 I project a +21 in the House