In this episode of ITR Live, Chris Hagenow and John Hendrickson provide straight talk on Iowa’s economic conditions, cutting through political messaging to focus on what the numbers actually show. With the latest Revenue Estimating Conference in the books, the hosts explain why Iowa’s fiscal position remains strong—but why that strength should not be misinterpreted as a green light for higher spending or policy complacency.

Chris and John walk through the distinction between economic performance and state revenue, noting that while Iowa continues to benefit from solid employment and stable growth, government revenues are shaped just as much by policy decisions and federal factors as by the private economy. They caution against conflating healthy reserves with long-term sustainability, emphasizing that today’s surplus can quickly become tomorrow’s shortfall if spending commitments grow faster than the economy.

The conversation broadens to national economic conditions and federal policy risks, including uncertainty around interest rates, federal spending, and mandates that could shift costs to states. The hosts point to other states that treated temporary surpluses as permanent money—and are now scrambling to close gaps—as a warning Iowa lawmakers should take seriously.

The episode concludes with a forward-looking discussion of what economic realism should look like heading into the next legislative session. Chris and John argue that honest budgeting, spending discipline, and skepticism of one-time money are essential if Iowa wants to preserve its economic advantages. Strong numbers, they conclude, are an opportunity to govern responsibly—not an excuse to avoid hard choices.