The US economy has faced many challenges in 2025: the direct effects of a government shutdown and the associated uncertainty because of the unavailability of economic statistics; the imposition of high, and varying, tariffs; concerns about affordability; and plunging consumer confidence. But, as Mark Zandi points out in this episode of EconoFact Chats, the economic fortunes of people vary across income groups, with the top third of the distribution benefitting from the strong stock market, the middle third concerned about their jobs and the cost of living, and the bottom third facing painful price increases, cuts in government support, and stalled hiring. Much remains uncertain as we finish the year and look ahead to 2026, and Mark discusses what to look for and how things may play out.

Mark is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.