Allen and Joel are joined by Nathan Davies from Lloyd Warwick to discuss the world of wind energy insurance. Topics include market cycles, the risks of insuring larger turbines, how critical spares can reduce downtime and costs, why lightning claims often end up with insurers rather than OEMs, and how AI may transform claims data analysis.
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Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining light on wind. Energy's brightest innovators. This is the Progress Powering tomorrow.
Allen Hall: Nathan, welcome to the program. Thank you for having me. So you are, you're our link to the insurance world, Nathan, and there's been so many changes over the past 12, 24 months, uh, not just in the United States but worldwide. Before we get too deep into any one subject, can you just give us a top level like, Hey, this is what's happening in the insurance world that we need to know.
So there's
Nathan Davies: obviously a lot of scope, a lot of development, um, in the wind world. Um, you know, there's the race to scale. Um, and from an insurance perspective, I think everybody's pretty tentative about where that's going. Um. You know, the, the theory that are we trying to [00:01:00] run before we can walk? Um, what's gonna happen when these things inevitably go wrong?
Uh, and what are the costs gonna be that are associated with that? 'cause, you know, at the moment we are used to, to claims on turbines that are circa five megawatts. But when we start seeing 15 megawatt turbines falling over. Yeah, it's, it's not gonna be a good day at the office. So, um, in the insurance world, that's the big concern.
Certainly from a win perspective at least.
Joel Saxum: Well, I think it's, it's a valid, uh, I don't know, valid bad, dream. Valid, valid risk to be worried about. Well, just simply because of like the, the way, uh, so I've been following or been a part of the, that side of the industry for a little while here the last five, six years.
Um. You've seen The insurance world is young in renewables, to be honest with you. Right. Compared to a lot of other places that like say the Lord Lloyd's market, they've been writing insurance for hundreds of years on certain [00:02:00] things that have, like, we kind of know, we know what the risks are. We, and if it develops something new, it's not crazily new, but renewables and in wind in specific haven't been around that long.
And the early stuff was like, like you said, right? If a one megawatt turbine goes down, like. That sucks. Yeah. For everybody, right? But it's not the end of the world. We can, we can make this thing happen. You're talking, you know, you may have a, you know, your million, million and a half dollars here, $2 million here for a complete failure.
And then the business interruption costs as a, you know, with a one megawatt producing machine isn't, again, it's not awesome, but it's not like it, uh, it doesn't break the books. Right. But then when we're talking 3, 4, 5, 6. Seven megawatts. We just saw Siemens cesa sell the first of their seven megawatt onshore platforms the other day.
Um, that is kind of changing the game and heightening the risk and makes things a little bit more worrisome, especially in light of, I mean, as we scaled just the last five, [00:03:00] 10 years, the amount of. Failures that have been happening. So if you look at that and you start expanding it, that, that, that hockey stick starts to grow.
Nathan Davies: Yeah, yeah, of course. And you know, we, we all know that these things sort of happen in cycles, right? It's, you go, I mean, in, in the insurance world, we go through soft markets. We go through hard markets, um, you know, deductibles come up, the, the clauses, the restrictions, all those things get tighter. Claims reduce.
Um, and then you get sort of disruptors come into the market and they start bringing in, you know, challenging rates and they start challenging the big players on deductibles and preferential rates and stuff like that. And, and then you get a softening of the market, um, and then you start seeing the claims around up again.
But when you twin that with the rate of development that we see in the renewables worlds, it's, it's fraught for all sorts of. Weird and wonderful things happening, and most of them are quite expensive.
Joel Saxum: Where in that cycle are we, in [00:04:00] your opinion right now? So we, like when I first came into the market and I started dealing with insurance, it was very, we kept hearing hardening, market hardening, market hardening market.
But not too long ago, I heard from someone else that was like, Hey, the market's actually getting kind of soft right now. What are your thoughts on that? And, and or may, and maybe we let, let's precursor that there's a lot of people that are listening right now that don't know the difference. What is a hard market?
What is a soft market? Can you give us that first?
Nathan Davies: When you're going through a soft market, it's, it's a period where they've either been, um, a limited volume of claims or the claim values have been quite small. Um, so, you know, everybody gets. It's almost like becoming complacent with it, right? It's like, oh, you know, things are going pretty well.
We're having it. It looks like the operators, it looks like the maintainers are, are doing a pretty good job and they know all of the issues that are gonna be working through in the lifetime of these products. So for the next however many years, we can anticipate that things are gonna gonna go pretty well.
But as you see those [00:05:00] deductibles come down, you start getting more of the attritional claims, like the smaller values, um, the smaller downtime periods, all that sort of thing, start coming in as claims. And all of a sudden insurers are like, well, hang on a second. All of a sudden we've got loads and loads of claims coming in.
Um. All of the premium that we were taking as being bled dry by, by these, these attritional claim. Um, and then you get like a big claim coming. You get a major issue come through, whether it's, you know, a, a serial issue with a gearbox or a generator or a specific blade manufacturer, and all of a sudden the market starts to change.
Um, and insurers are like, well, hang on a second. We've got a major problem on our hands here. We're starting to see more of this, this specific piece of technology being rolled out, um, worldwide. Um, we are in for a lot of potential claims on this specific matter in the future, and therefore we need to protect ourselves.
And the way that insurers do that is by [00:06:00] increasing or deductibles, um, increasing their premiums, all that sort of thing. So it's basically that. Uh, raises the threshold at which a claim can be presented and therefore minimizes the, the outlay for insurers. So that's sort of this, this cycle that we see. Um, I mean, I can't, I've, I've only been in loss adjusting for six years, so I can't say that I've seen, you know, um, multiple cycles.
I've, I'm probably at the end of my first cycle from a hardening to a softening market. Um. But also, again, I'm not in the underwriting side of things. I'm on the claims side of things, so I own, I'm only seeing it when it's gone wrong. I don't know about everything else that the insurance market sees.
Joel Saxum: Yeah, the, the softening part, I think as well from a macro perspective, when there's a softening market, it tends to bring in more capital.
Right. You start to see more, more and more companies coming in saying, Hey, I've got, [00:07:00] and when I say companies, I mean other capital holders to beat for insurance, right? Like these, the big ones you see, the big Swiss and German guys come in and going, like, I got, I got $500 million I'll throw into renewables.
It seems like to be a good, pretty good bet right now. And then the market starts to change and then they go, uh, oops. Yeah.
Nathan Davies: And that's it. You know, you've got the, the StoreWatch of the renewable insurance market like your G cubes and, and companies like that who've been in the game for a very long time.
They've got a lot of experience. They've been burned. Um, they know what they want to touch and what they don't want to touch. And then you get. Renewables, everybody wants to be involved. It covers their ESG targets. It's, it's a good look to move away from, you know, your, your oil and your coal and all the rest of it.
So, of course, companies are gonna come into it. Um, and if they're not experienced.
Allen Hall: They will get banned. How much reliance do operators have at the moment on insurance? Because it does seem like, uh, Joel and I talk [00:08:00]to a lot of operators that insurance is part of their annual revenue. They depend upon getting paid a certain amount, which then opens up the door to how sort of nitpicky I'll describe it as the claim.
They'll file. Are you seeing more and more of that as, uh, some of the operators are struggling for cash flow, that there are going after more kind of questionable claims? Um, I think it depends on
Nathan Davies: the size of the operator. So you've, you've obviously got your, your big players, you've got your alls and your rws and all of those sort of guys who, the way that they manage their insurance, they've probably got, you know, special purpose vehicles.
They've got, um, sites or clusters of sites that they manage finances independently. They don't just have the one big or pot. It's, it's,...
