//The Wire//2300Z December 27, 2024//

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//BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN KAZAKHSTAN AS A RESULT OF PROBABLE MISSILE STRIKE. MORE DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING USS GETTYSBURG FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS.//

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Over the holiday, additional information has come to light regarding the recent shootdown of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 by the USS Gettysburg (CG-64). Follow on information from crewmembers indicates that the shootdown was not the only friendly fire incident that day. Another aircraft narrowly avoided being engaged and was forced to take actions to evade an incoming missile from the USS Gettysburg. The pilot in the second aircraft was able to successfully evade the missile shot at them, unlike the first. AC: So far, virtually nothing is confirmable via independent sources; all of the information pertaining to these two friendly-fire incidents is coming from word-of-mouth sources within the Strike Group itself.

Continuing the trend of escalating tensions in the region, Houthi targeting has increased once again over the past week following Israeli strikes in Yemen. Houthi forces have retaliated in kind, carrying out ballistic missile strikes on targets in Israel.

Northern Europe: Another undersea cable cutting incident allegedly occurred on Christmas Day. This time, an electrical power cable spanning the Baltic Sea between Estonia and Finland was disrupted under unclear circumstances. NATO has pledged to increase their military naval presence in the Baltic as a result of the suspected Russian and/or Chinese merchant vessels which are being investigated by NATO for being involved in anchor-dragging incidents. 

Kazakhstan: Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Aktau on Wednesday. The circumstances leading up to the disaster are as follows:

The aircraft took off from Baku, and transited north along the western bank of the Caspian Sea to complete a routine flight to Grozny. Once in Russian airspace, the crew reported navigational issues likely due to Russian military jamming of GPS systems, as has been extremely common throughout the region for several years. While attempting to land in Grozny under extremely thick fog, and with the added complexities of navigational issues, the aircraft experienced a catastrophic event that involved some loss of control over the aircraft. Initial reports suggested that the aircraft experienced a bird strike, as this is what the pilots reported over the radio. However, it is possible that what was perceived as a bird strike, really was the result of a missile striking the aircraft over Grozny. AC: Russian missile defense forces in Grozny had reportedly engaged Ukrainian drones earlier that day, lending weight to this theory.

Following the catastrophic incident (either the bird strike or a surface-to-air missile strike) the pilots made the decision to abort landing in Grozny due to the emergency situation and thick fog, making the judgement call that landing a compromised aircraft in Grozny was not a viable option as they had already unsuccessfully tried to do so with an undamaged aircraft.

The details of what happened next remain more uncertain with regards to timing and the sequence of events. The pilots attempted to gain clearance to land in Dagestan, but was also unable to do so due to conflicting reports. Some claim the same weather problems experienced in Grozny were to blame, other claims have been made that Russia forbade the aircraft to land for some unexplained reason. Reports also differ as to when this request was made; some claim prior to the catastrophic incident, others claim afterward.

At some point the pilots conducted a radical change of course, heading from west to east over the Caspian Sea toward an unidentified airport that possibly had better weather conditions. During the transit over the Caspian Sea, an emergency was declared a