LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“The World in 2029” by Nathan Young


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I open my eyes. It's nearly midday. I drink my morning Huel. How do I feel? My life feels pretty good. AI progress is faster than ever, but I've gotten used to the upward slope by now. There has perhaps recently been a huge recession, but I prepared for that. If not, the West feels more stable than it did in 2024. The culture wars rage on, inflamed by AI, though personally I don't pay much attention.

Either Trump or Biden won the 2024 election (85%). If Biden, his term was probably steady growth and good, boring decision making (70%). If Trump there is more chance of global instability (70%) due to pulling back from NATO (40%), lack of support for Ukraine (60%), incompetence in handling the Middle East (30%). Under both administrations there is a moderate chance of a global recession (30%), slightly more under Trump. I intend [...]

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First published:

March 2nd, 2024

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyEfeJK2F7FKcRCmc/the-world-in-2029

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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