The Writ

The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October’s provincial election.

But Tuxedo won’t be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Transcona in the next few months. The federal NDP, not nearly as buoyant in the polls as their provincial cousins, could have a fight on its hands to hold off the Conservatives in this seat.

To discuss the first months of Wab Kinew’s government and the upcoming electoral contests taking place in Winnipeg, as well as how the city is shaping up ahead of the 2025 federal election, I’m joined by Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we chat about the upcoming byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's and what's at stake for the Liberals in what has traditionally been a safe seat. We also discuss the results in the Pictou West byelection in Nova Scotia, the upcoming Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and new polls out of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Cette semaine au balado, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party’s polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip.

What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to the next provincial campaign in 2026?

To explain the state of Ontario politics today, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji, author of Queen’s Park Observer, and John Michael McGrath, writer and co-host of the #onpoli podcast for TVO.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we try to figure what is going on in British Columbia as more and more polls show the B.C. Conservatives closing the gap with (or even beating) David Eby's NDP. We also break down the results of last week's two provincial byelections in Ontario. In the mailbag, we tackle the polling woes of Justin Trudeau's Liberals and more. Finally, Philippe has another Quiz this week — though one that's a tad easier than last week's.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election.

In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on me in my weakened state in this week's edition of The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Québec solidaire en désarroi Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages au Québec, de l'avance du Parti québécois et des appuis au PLQ chez les communautés anglophones et allophones au Québec. De plus, nous analysons la démission de la co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire, Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Est-ce que Québec solidaire devra effectuer des réformes à l'interne pour espérer une croissance de ses appuis ? Les membres de QS accepteront-ils des tels changements ? Nous discutons ensuite des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui nous indiquent que l'écart entre les libéraux et conservateurs semble se creuser davantage. Selon Léger, Abacus Data et Nanos, le PCC mène maintenant par 20 points (et plus) au pays. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don’t officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh hasn’t committed to supporting it. What’s behind his party’s will-they-or-won’t-they dance?

Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the budget to pass to avoid an election. They also hope it will start a positive trend that will help them close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But early indications are that it isn’t having the desired effect — at least not yet.

To break down the politics of the budget and where things go from here, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the latest numbers on how Canadians are reacting to the budget. We also delve into some polling controversy in Quebec where two different polls report two very different situations in the province.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Le troisième référendum : une « certitude » Philippe et Éric discutent du discours de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon lors du conseil national du Parti québécois, lors duquel il a affirmé qu'il y aura assurément un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avant la fin de la décennie. Était-ce une bonne stratégie ? Est-ce que l'aiguille des sondages bougera suite à ce discours (d'un côté comme de l'autre) ? Nous discutons ensuite du départ du whip de la CAQ, Éric Lefebvre, qui portera les couleurs du Parti conservateur de Pierre Poilievre aux prochaines élections fédérales. Est-ce que d'autres députés caquistes pourraient être tentés de faire le saut dans la prochaine année ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What’s behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial?

Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the New Democrats losing three veteran MPs who won’t run in the next election, what’s the state of the NDP?

To break it all down, the political pollsters are back.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about about fresh national polling numbers that suggest the pre-budget rollout the Liberals have embarked upon has not yet had an impact on public opinion. We also discuss the retirement of three veteran NDP MPs and some new poll numbers out of British Columbia and Alberta.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex?

In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for me.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Les Gaspésiens triomphent (malgré leur nombre) Philippe et moi discutent de l'abandon du projet de redécoupage de la carte électorale au Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal garderont leurs sièges, alors que les Laurentides et le Centre-du-Québec continueront d'être sous-représentés. Le gouvernement a-t-il manqué de courage dans ce dossier ? Nous discutons ensuite des derniers chiffres fédéraux de Léger au Québec et ailleurs au pays, puis nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et auditeurs. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi.

It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already over.

To break it all down, I’m joined this week by two people who know the Alberta NDP very well. Leah Ward is vice president at Wellington Advocacy and Cheryl Oates is co-host of The Discourse podcast, and both previously served as director of communications for Rachel Notley.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the last week’s national polls, as well as some new numbers out of Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, in particular on the Alberta NDP leadership race.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts me to the test with The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: François Legault est-il devenu un boulet pour son parti ? Cette semaine, Philippe et moi discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le PQ a creusé davantage l'écart avec la CAQ et le taux de satisfaction du gouvernement continue de chuter. Sera-t-il possible pour la CAQ de remonter la pente et, pour y arriver, aura-t-elle besoin d'un changement de chef ? Nous décortiquons aussi les chiffres fédéraux du sondage, en particulier les données pour la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Le Bloc aurait-il dépassé les conservateurs à Québec ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe