The Writ

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!

Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back.

In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom before turning things around.

So, what did we learn about each of the major parties in 2023 and what questions about them are we waiting to be answered in 2024?

To answer that, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew?

We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here.

Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province?

This week, I’m joined again by a panel of season political pollsters.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This weekend, voting will start for the Ontario Liberal leadership as the contest between Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi and Ted Hsu reaches its final stage. The result will be announced on December 2. But before the winner is revealed, voting will also take place in the riding of Kitchener Centre, where a provincial byelection is scheduled for November 30.

Joining me this week to break down all the latest in Ontario politics are Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and Jessica Smith Cross, editor-in-chief at The Trillium.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Liberals have held sway in Newfoundland and Labrador ever since the federal and provincial parties won the elections of 2015. But that could be changing. The latest polls suggest Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives might turn the province blue, and while Premier Andrew Furey’s Liberals are still narrowly ahead in provincial voting intentions, they now face a new challenger as the opposition PCs have a new leader.

Joining me this week to chat about the political scene in Newfoundland and Labrador is Tim Powers, chairperson at Summa Strategies, and Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter in St. John’s.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. 

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

There has been a lot of movement in the polls over the last few months. But who are the people behind those numbers?

Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data. He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coalition looks like today.

(If you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe