The Writ

Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls, so I invited David back again on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time into the demographics of the Canadian electorate.

Using a compilation of multiple polls conducted over the last few months, we look at age, gender, education and occupational splits in voting intentions and whether there are any regional differences in each party’s voter profiles. We also discuss who those people are who have switched from one party to another and just what makes them tick.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the entry of Naheed Nenshi into the Alberta NDP leadership race. We also chat about the latest national polls, how the premiers are faring and answer listener questions, including on Conservative seat prospects in Quebec and on Vancouver Island.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests my knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Que restera-t-il du PLC au Québec ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Pallas Data pour le Québec. Les appuis aux PQ ont-ils plafonné ? La CAQ a-t-elle freiné sa glissade ?  Nous décortiquons ensuite les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec qui ont mesuré une baisse importante des appuis aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Que resterait-il du PLC au Québec si ces chiffres devaient se concrétiser ? Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric sur des personnalités politiques québécoises. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign?

On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.

Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He’s now host of the iPolitics podcast, On Background with Fred DeLorey, and partner at NorthStar Public Affairs. 

Melissa Cotton spent over 20 years as a volunteer and staffer for the Liberal Party and provincially. She has managed or worked on multiple local election and by-election campaigns and served in several central campaign war rooms.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I broke down the latest federal, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada polls and set our over/under lines for the Durham byelection.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8:30 PM Eastern for our livestream of the Durham byelection results on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the right in B.C. and the linguistic split in New Brunswick. Then, Philippe quizzes me on some provincial premiers.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. We also set expectations for the upcoming byelection in Durham.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chatted about the Liberals’ polling woes and the latest survey that puts the Saskatchewan NDP in first place. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and I put Philippe to the test with another Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who used to be the dominant force in Atlantic Canada.

To update us on the latest in provincial and federal politics in their two provinces, I’m joined this week by Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter, and Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News.

(If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia?

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns.

So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The Writ Podcast. To help me do that this week, I’m join by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, B.C., Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, Saskatchewan, and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me for last week's Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe