theAnalysis.news host Paul Jay is interviewed by activist Luke Alden about the state of the peoples’ movement and Paul’s own history of politicization.

theAnalysis.news host Paul Jay is interviewed by activist Luke Alden about the state of the peoples’ movement and Paul’s own history of politicization.

theAnalysis.news host Paul Jay is interviewed by activist Luke Alden about the state of the peoples’ movement and Paul’s own history of politicization. 

Transcript

Paul Jay

Hi, I'm Paul Jay, and welcome to theAnalysis.news podcast. 

So my guest today is, well, me. Luke Alden, who's a viewer, supporter, and he's an activist who lives in Rome. He's American, but he's been there for a couple of decades. He wrote to me and said he'd like to interview me. And I figured, OK, well, let's try it.

So Luke is on the line with me, and Luke is actually going to be the host, and I'm turning it over to him. Just one message from me before I do, which is theAnalysis.news only exists because people are donating. We don't have any really big donors, and we really need people to contribute. And so if you are so motivated, and haven't donated yet, you'll find the donate button somewhere, or if you're listening to this on one of the podcast platforms, just come to theAnalysis.news, and you'll find a donate button there. Anyways, without any further ado, Luke Alden is an educator. He's a school teacher. He's a political activist. As I said, he lives in Rome, and he's been involved for a decade in campaigns with local and international groups on issues of war and military spending, austerity, climate, and US/Israeli aggression in Palestine.

And so now over to you, Luke's now the host.

Luke Alden

OK, Paul. So Paul Jay, as I'm sure most of you know, is an individual, for me, with one of the most insightful and incisive fact-based and non-doctrinal independent analyses and overviews of the current global political economy that I've heard in media. And he's known in the world as a documentary filmmaker and journalist, as a former creator and producer of Canadian CBC's Counterspin, as the founder of the Real News Network in Baltimore, and currently, as the creator of theAnalysis.news podcast, where he conducts some of the most instructive interviews you'll find out there at the moment.

He's also currently working with Daniel Ellsberg on a documentary series based on Ellsberg's 2018 book "The Doomsday Machine and Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner." So I wanted to chat with Paul about, apart from his own work, the depth of the crises we're currently facing, the prospects for maybe getting out of them, and what lessons of the past and left movements and media we may want to learn from.

So thanks very much for taking the time again to talk to me today, Paul, and for your insight you have to offer us.

Paul Jay

Thank you, Luke.

Luke Alden

All right, so, we have a global pandemic, of course, the likes of which is unseen in a century, medieval level inequality, reminding us more recently of the 1930s, financial crash after financial crash in recent decades, the explosion of debt, sustained attacks on welfare state measures, the tearing apart of the Middle East and other parts of the world through illegal war after illegal war on the part of US, coups and attempted coups backed by the US in South America and beyond, systemic institutional racism, the increase of nuclear disaster, and a climate catastrophe the likes of which humanity has never seen, all accompanied by misdirected anger, fear, and confusion. This all characterizes not only the current state of things, but increasingly, at least the last 40 years, an investors rights globalized state capitalism, commonly referred to as the neoliberal period, where a very substantial increase in the concentration of wealth,

theAnalysis.news host Paul Jay is interviewed by activist Luke Alden about the state of the peoples’ movement and Paul’s own history of politicization.

The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024 – and the risk is growing.

The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024 – and the risk is growing.

Pep Canadell, CSIRO and Rob Jackson, Stanford University

The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024 – and the risk is growing.

This first overshoot beyond 1.5℃ would be temporary, likely aided by a major climate anomaly such as an El Niño weather pattern. However, it casts new doubt on whether Earth’s climate can be permanently stabilised at 1.5℃ warming.

This finding is among those just published in a report titled United in Science. We contributed to the report, which was prepared by six leading science agencies, including the Global Carbon Project.

The report also found while greenhouse gas emissions declined slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they remained very high – which meant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have continued to rise.

The world may exceed the 1.5℃ warming threshold sooner than we expected.

Erik Anderson/AAP

Greenhouse gases rise as CO₂ emissions slow

Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), have all increased over the past decade. Current concentrations in the atmosphere are, respectively, 147%, 259% and 123% of those present before the industrial era began in 1750.

Concentrations measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory and at Australia’s Cape Grim station in Tasmania show concentrations continued to increase in 2019 and 2020. In particular, CO₂ concentrations reached 414.38 and 410.04 parts per million in July this year, respectively, at each station.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂0) from WMO Global Atmosphere Watch.

Growth in CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use slowed to around 1% per year in the past decade, down from 3% during the 2000s. An unprecedented decline is expected in 2020, due to the COVID-19 economic slowdown. Daily CO₂ fossil fuel emissions declined by 17% in early April at the peak of global confinement policies, compared with the previous year. But by early June they had recovered to a 5% decline.

We estimate a decline for 2020 of about 4-7% compared to 2019 levels, depending on how the pandemic plays out.

Although emissions will fall slightly, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will still reach another record high this year. This is because we’re still adding large amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere.

Global daily fossil CO₂ emissions to June 2020. Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2020, Nature Climate Change.

The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024 – and the risk is growing.

The speech from the throne is only weeks away. Moments like these — pandemics, depressions, wars — are historical turning points, often marking a time period when fundamental change toward social and economic equality become possible. By Bruce Campbell.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland responds to a question during a news conference on Parliament Hill in August 2020.

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Bruce Campbell, York University, Canada

The speech from the throne is only weeks away. Moments like these — pandemics, depressions, wars — are historical turning points, often marking a time period when fundamental change toward social and economic equality become possible.

Unlike the apparently failed state south of the border that seems to be trudging toward a dystopian future, the federal government has implemented a commendable, if imperfect, plan to protect Canadians’ health and safety, support unemployed workers and help struggling businesses in this time of pandemic-induced shock.

Longer term, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to rebuild the economy, address inequality and take bold action on the climate emergency. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has written:

“Rising income inequality and a hollowed-out middle class are the dominant social and political challenge facing our generation.”

Will they follow through on these promises? Or will they appease the people who derive their power from wealth — or plutocrats, as Freeland called them in her book of the same name — and ultimately acquiesce to the parameters they set on what kind of change is acceptable?

So far there has been no mention of a wealth tax or an increase in the income tax rate for the wealthiest Canadians, the rebuilding of the badly frayed social safety net or the expansion of universal health care, notably via universal public pharmacare. Nor have there been any bold measures to decarbonize the economy that align with the government’s net-zero 2050 target.

Debt, deficit drumbeats

Corporate mouthpieces are beating the austerity drums, warning about rampant debt and deficits. The Business Council of Canada is urging the government to set clear fiscal targets and rein in spending to control the debt.

The Fitch credit rating agency — which in 2007 disastrously rated sub-prime mortgage bonds as Triple A, a contributing factor to the global financial crisis — has downgraded Canada’s credit rating due to the “deterioration of Canada’s public finances.” It’s also given a nod to Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole’s pledge to balance the budget.

As a result of government spending, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 50 per cent this year and next. That’s paltry compared to its rise to 130 per cent during the Second World War. No one complained then. There was a war to fight.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is seen durin...