ThinkEnergy

In Part 2 of the Holiday Rewind, Trevor revisits five standout episodes from thinkenergy in 2025. The conversations focus on renewable energy, from Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and building decarbonization to energy storage, district energy, and the policy forces shaping it all. This episode reflects on how renewables are becoming personal, scalable, and central to Canada's smart energy future. Listen in for a thoughtful look at the momentum we've built and the progress we made.

Related links

• Episode 163 (How Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) are reshaping the grid): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/thinkenergy-shorts-how-distributed-energy-resources-ders-are-reshaping-the-grid/

• Episode 150 (Decarbonizing Canada's buildings with the Building Decarbonization Alliance): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/decarbonizing-canadas-buildings-with-the-building-decarbonization-alliance/

• Episode 152 (Capturing lightning in a bottle with Energy Storage Canada): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/capturing-lightning-in-a-bottle-with-energy-storage-canada/

• Episode 154 (Reimagining heating and cooling with district energy systems): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/reimagining-heating-and-cooling-with-district-energy-systems/

• Episode 149 (Looking ahead at 2025 clean energy trends): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/looking-ahead-at-2025-clean-energy-trends/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-cem-leed-ap-8b612114/

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

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http://thinkenergy.libsyn.com/

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:00

Welcome to thinkenergy, a podcast that dives into the fast, changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts, feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydro ottawa.com, hi everyone and welcome back. Welcome to the second of our special year end holiday rewind episodes that we do here on the think energy podcast, I'm your host, Trevor Freeman, in our last episode, we looked at five conversations or snippets of conversations that we thought, you know, helped shape the way we think about the grid, everything from politics to grid modernization to large scale investments, what Hydro Ottawa in particular is proposing to invest in our grid, but Today is all about the fuel that powers our clean energy future. And I don't mean all the candy and gingerbread and all the sugar that we're going to eat over the next little while, although those help too. I'm talking about renewable energy, solar, District Energy Systems, how we're using distributed technologies to really transform the way we generate and manage and use power here in Canada. Think of this episode as a bit of a, you know, warm fireside reflection on the progress that we've made, the momentum we're carrying into the year ahead. But also keep in mind how far we have to go. We've got more work to do, and 2026 needs to be another year of focusing on that. But today we're going to revisit portions of, you know, five conversations from 2025 that really show how renewable energy isn't just a trend, it's an accelerating shift that's reshaping our homes and our businesses, our communities and even the grid itself. So let's jump right in with our first clip. So today we're going to start with a clip that's close to my heart, because I talk about distributed energy resources all the time, and you guys hear me talk about that all the time with guests and in some of the solo episodes that I do, it's one of the clearest signs that renewable energy is moving from kind of the fringes of the grid, the very large centralized systems to really write on our own rooftops and backyards and on our businesses, DERs represent really that bottom up renewable revolution. So rooftop solar, home batteries, smart EV chargers and more, these are becoming technologies that our friends and neighbors and us, even the listeners of this podcast, have and are using to add real clean energy to the grid and using it in smarter ways. So here's a moment from my distributed energy resources episode that looks at how DERs are becoming those practical tools for resilience, for decarbonization and just for everyday energy use. So let's dive into what some of the reasons are why someone would want a der there's a couple of different reasons. The first is for backup during an outage. So using solar panels, especially if paired with a battery, can give you some backup if there's an outage from the grid, whether that's a storm or an accident or something like that, that backup power can be focused on your key devices or systems or appliances, or if your storage is big enough, or your system is big enough, it may be used to power your whole home for a period of time. Of course, if you're using one of those non renewable sources that I mentioned, like a fossil fuel power generator, for example, then your backup supply can last longer, really, as long as you've got fuel. But it's not clean, so you will be producing carbon emissions. One emerging technology that we'll likely see more of in the future is using an electric vehicle for this purpose. So while there's only a few different models that allow this right now, the Ford F150 is one of them, and there are some safety and regulatory considerations before you go ahead and do this, we can expect to see more of this in the future as the technology advances and it becomes a bit more widespread. Another reason for DERs is financial. Installing a der can actually help you save money every month, whether that's just by reducing what you consume from the grid, or by pushing back unused generation to the grid for credits, and I'll touch on this a little bit more shortly. Finally, if we're talking about those renewable DERs, they produce clean energy. So that's carbon free emissions, free energy. And if you are concerned about your carbon footprint, you're trying to decarbonize and reduce the amount of emissions that you cause. Renewable DERs are a great way to do that. You can lower your carbon footprint by reducing how much you draw from the electricity grid and any carbon emissions that are associated with that. You know what I love about this is just how simple. Empowering. It truly is. Renewable energy isn't industrial scale anymore. You know, everybody can at least envision themselves playing a part in the renewable transition. There's incentives out there to support putting renewables in the business case. Is starting to make sense for homes, for businesses, it's becoming local. And as these DERs grow, they don't just decarbonize homes, they also strengthen resiliency, and, you know, support the other drivers that people have for their energy, having more control over it, having resiliency and backup during outages, etc. And this theme of people having more agency and control over their energy really ties into the next clip that we're going to show as well. We're revisiting again we played this on the last holiday rewind, but we're revisiting our conversation with the Building Decarb Alliance about buildings. Buildings are one of Canada's largest sources of emissions. They're also one of the biggest opportunities for renewable driven change. So in this conversation with Brian Flanagan, we talk about how renewable energy and electrification, so from heat pumps to solar grid integrated building systems, how these things are reshaping the way we heat and cool and power the places that we live and work. And in this clip, I really think it captures the scale of the challenge and the optimism of the transition. You really can't overstate the importance of buildings in our lives. We eat, sleep, work, learn and socialize in buildings, among many, many other things, a huge percentage of our lives takes place inside buildings. In fact, most of us probably have to make a conscious effort to actually spend time outside of buildings. I know that I try to make a point of spending time outside every day, and I have to be conscious about it, because it might not otherwise happen. And as a result of that, centrality in our lives, buildings are major users of energy. Some estimates say that around 30 to 40% of energy use in Canada is associated with buildings, and they're also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. So around maybe 18% or so in Canada. That means that the buildings themselves and the way we build them, the way we heat them, the way we use them, are an important part of our efforts to decarbonize and to further the ongoing energy transition.

Bryan Flannigan 07:24

We tend to focus on kind of four main areas, making sure that there's policy support at various levels of government, and understanding which policies might be effective and which ones might be less so, and trying to advance the ones that are high leverage, looking at the grid impacts of electrifying buildings. Because it's undeniable that if you switch from fossil combustion of fossil fuels to electricity, you require a clean electricity system that has to have the capacity and be robust enough to support that. So we want to be clear about that. We want to really address that in a cogent sort of way, and then really mobilizing and activating the sector to implement these changes and to find the solutions, because many of the solutions are at the intersection of different subsets of the of the sector, whether it's banking and finance, or whether it's development community or the utilities, every market actor has a role to play to find solutions. Is very rarely one sub sector that can really act to, you know, to overcome a barrier. And so we try to work at the intersection of these different groups, and by convening the players, we can roll up our sleeves and kind of get to that. And then, last but not least, you know, this is a very complex sort of question in terms of, how do we get there? What are the pathways? It kind of reminds me of nutrition, medicine, things like that, where, you know, at one instance, it's great to eat eggs, and another instance, terrible to eat eggs, and then it's good to eat eggs again, because the evidence is shifting right, and we have to follow the evidence. We have to understand that the systems are complex and that various investments in the grid will alter the landscape. And so we're working really hard to increase the analytical capacity of the sector, to model and to be able to understand how this will really play out when you have exponential sort of technological advancement coming to play, and you know, different investments and different dynamics that are bearing out as the sector decarbonizes, which is, it's really complex, and so we need better tools to be able to grapple with that. So those are the four sort of main areas, and it's a heavy lift. We arrive on the scene with great humility, recognizing that we stand on the shoulder of many, many other organizations who have come into the space, trying to take a slightly different approach by bringing all the players together and trying to find some common understanding of how we how we get this done. You know, we have to do something different. We've been doing energy efficiency for four decades, give or take with the programming that we've had, and it's been very effective. I don't think there's any more old T 12 light bulbs anywhere that worked. That's great, but we need to do something different now to get fossil fuels out of the buildings for heating purposes, right? That's the goal.

Trevor Freeman 09:53

So what resonates most for me about Bryan's message is the idea that buildings aren't obstacles to decarbonization. They're really. The engines for it, as the renewable electricity systems we have our buildings will become smarter, cleaner, more efficient, and as we talk about we spend a lot of our time in buildings. And so when we think about grid interactive homes to solar ready construction and thermal storage, the building sector is really becoming a major driver, or has the potential to become a major driver of renewable transformation. So speaking of storage, this next clip is a revisit of the conversation that I had with Justin Rangooni from Electricity Storage Canada, and we explored one of the biggest enablers of renewable energy growth, which is battery storage, because, you know, let's face it, the sun isn't always shining and the wind isn't always blowing in the right direction. And with batteries, you can really create flexibility and stability for your renewable systems. And ultimately, that comes down to possibility. So my conversation with Justin really walks through how these battery systems both utility scale but also behind the meter, kind of more individual sized unlock far more renewable energy by making it dispatchable, resilient, responsive, et cetera. And I think in this next clip, we really capture that beautifully.

Justin Rangooni 11:16

Okay, so the best way to think of it is. There's an analogy that one of our members had always said, and we continue to use it when we talk about energy storage. And the great things that can do is that it's like bacon. It makes everything better. I don't eat bacon, but I take I understand the concept, and what that means is, if you look at it from a grid management point of view is that we have all in Ontario, we're lucky to have a pretty clean grid. If it's nuclear power, or it's water power, or it's intermittent generation like wind and solar and even some gas too, which is which is near zero, low, low carbon, and we don't have coal, so it's a clean grid, and energy storage can make that better in the sense that it will optimize those generation assets so we're not wasting it. So those days before we would hear about when energy is needed but the wind's not blowing, or the sun's not shining, or we don't need the energy and we have to spill water, or, you know, we may have to power down a ramp, down a bit of the nuclear ramp, or the natural gas units. Now, energy storage can make sure we don't waste that now we can collect that power when it's done, when it's when it's being done, when it's being made, and we're holding it for when it's needed. And from a grid management that is the real key. That is the game changer that energy storage provides. And if we break it down, down to the customer themselves. You know, you're trying to think of now, not just helping keep the lights on. We're also talking about your rates now in terms of, now, we can kind of defer those investments in terms of more generation, because now you have energy storage that's getting more out of it. We're also talking from the distribution side of poles and wires. Maybe you don't you can defer those investments a little longer with more distributed, connected energy storage. So now the customer is starting to see the benefits of energy storage in their rates and in their electricity bill. And look, I just got an electric car, so really excited about it, and I can see the possibilities of that car being a battery from my home for my use, which, again, now maybe that's still a bit down the road with B to G and, you know, using it to power a residential energy storage unit in my house. But the possibilities are really endless. So this is really the exciting thing about energy storage, from a Grid Manager down to the customer,

Trevor Freeman 13:38

Yeah, and I think it's, it's important to think about the different contexts that energy storage can play, or the different roles that it can play for our individual customers, a homeowner. There is a role for storage there, and you get some of those benefits that you just mentioned, but then we can scale that all the way up to the grid level. And you know, us in the utility space also have some things that we can do with energy storage. And like you said, we can manage things a little bit better. We don't have to waste that energy. We can generate it when it's cheap and hold on to it and use it when it's maybe a bit more difficult in those peak periods. So lots of different uses. Thanks for laying that out for us. Now we hear a lot about, you know, decentralization and community based energy systems kind of more control at the community level. When it comes to energy what's the role of energy storage in systems like that?

Justin Rangooni 14:34

Well, I think that's energy storage can really make that a reality. Now, again, I think I'll go back to my example having an electric car, it seems like more getting closer to being more a prosumer than just a consumer now. So I can see the possibilities of using electric vehicle. You could and then you start to pair that with other kind of your thermostat or your other smart technologies in your home. So now, when we're talking about decentralizing community-based energy. Systems, the consumer, the utility, the system operator, you're all able to get in the space of playing with the technologies. And that's really again, where it gets kind of exciting, that everyone's playing a role. There are different possibilities to use, and we think energy storage is the key to doing that, because it can store that energy when it's not needed, and you can use it when it's needed. And if the technology evolution continues, eventually, the homeowner, the business owner, can start to use that. I can use buy power from the cars. I can use my power that I'm generating myself or from the distribution grid. And now I can start to play with it and use it store overnight when rates are low or when it's excess supply, I could store that energy and use it when it's needed during the day. So really exciting times, and that's why we think energy storage is key to any decentralized or community-based energy systems.

Trevor Freeman 15:53

Yeah, really unlocks that ability to push control into the hands of the end user, whether that's the homeowner or the business owner or the community, kind of pushes it downstream into their hands. So really, every renewable energy expansion story has, you know, a chapter on storage. Batteries are no longer just an add on. They're becoming really an essential part of the conversation and a consideration for all these projects. And like Justin said, you know, a battery is like bacon. It makes everything better. And I couldn't agree more about bacon and batteries, from batteries powering homes and emergencies to grid scale storage, smoothing out renewable intermittency to neighborhood level systems, supporting micro grids, these are all things that we'll hopefully start to see more in our lives and in our communities. Battery storage is really what turns renewable energy into performance, great performance, and we're actually going to see those impacts. It's also tying into our next episode, because if batteries make renewables flexible, then something like a district energy system is how you really take that to scale. So in this episode that we're going to play a clip from, we took a deep dive into a world that often operates behind the scenes. And it was really great to reconnect with kind of an old friend and colleague, Scott Demark, about district energy systems. These systems provide heating and cooling to entire neighborhoods or campuses by using centralized, efficient infrastructure. And you know, you maybe you're asking, why does this tie into renewable energy? And that's because district systems are one of the most effective ways to integrate large scale renewable heat sources, whether that's taking waste heat from existing sources or geo exchange biomass, you know, ultra-efficient thermal storage, and putting that to good use. And so listen to this clip from my conversation with Scott that kind of captures that idea. So we've kind of touched on this a little bit, but let's dive right into, you know, we talk a lot on the show about the energy transition this, this push to one, move away from fossil fuel combustion to meet our energy needs, and two, shifting from a kind of static, centralized energy system like we have right now, big generators, large transmission lines, etc, to more of a two way flow, distributed energy system. What is the role of district energy systems within that transition? How do they help us get closer to that sort of reality that we talk about?

Scott Demark 18:29

I think the biggest way that they help is economies of scale. Okay, so by that, I'll explain that. Imagine there's a lot of technology that's been around a long time that is very scalable to the building level, but most of them are fossil fire. Okay, so the cheapest way to heat a building in Ottawa is to put a gas fired boiler in. That's the cheapest capital cost, first cost, and it's also the cheapest operating cost, is to put a gas boiler in. That industry is well established. There's lots of trades who could do it. There's lots of producers who make the boilers. When you start to try and think about the energy transition and think about what you may do to be different, to be lower carbon, or to be zero carbon, those industries are just starting right. Those industries don't exist. They don't have the same depth and so they don't have the same cost structure. And oftentimes they don't scale well down to the building. And therefore a district energy system aggregates a bunch of load, and so you can provide a thermal energy so at scale, that becomes affordable. And that is, you know, a very good example of that would be where you know you might want to go and recover heat from some process. And we'll talk about Zibi as the example. But if you want to go recover heat from some process and bring it in, it doesn't make sense to run a pipeline to a source to heat one building. You can't make financial sense of it. But if you're heating 20 buildings, that pipeline, all of a sudden makes sense to take waste heat from somewhere, to move it somewhere else. The other advantage is that truly, district energy systems are agnostic to their inputs and outputs for heat. So once you've established that hydronic loop, that interconnection of water pipes between buildings, what the source and what the sources doesn't matter. So you may have at one point, built a district energy system, and Markham District Energy Systems a great example of this. Markham district energy system was built on the concept of using a cogeneration facility. So they burned natural gas to make electricity. They sold electricity to the grid, and they captured all the waste heat from that generation, and they fed it into a district energy system. Well here we are, 20 plus years later, and they're going to replace that system, that fossil fired system, augment, not fully replace, but mostly replace that system with a sewer coupled energy recovery and drive those heat recovery chillers to a sewer system. So they're putting a very green solution in place of a former fossil solution. They don't have to rip up the pipes, they don't have to change anything in the buildings. They only have to change that central concept. Now, again, Markham could never do that at a one building scale. They're only that at the community scale.

Trevor Freeman 21:24

And because district energy systems make renewable energy more affordable through scalability and shared infrastructure, in some cases, the economic case for entire communities or neighborhoods or even large industrial complexes to adopt them is really becoming something that people are looking at. It's becoming more compelling. It's not going to work in every instance, as we talk about with Scott in the full episode, but it really kind of opens the door to more possibilities. And that brings us to our final episode highlight, which is a big picture look at some of the politics and trends and strategies that helped shape renewable energy in 2025 now we played a clip from this episode in our last rewind episode, but I want to revisit another part of that episode, and this is the beginning of the year when I kind of laid out some of the trends and things that we thought might shape energy politics in the year ahead, in 2025 and we looked at Canada and the US and global markets to really try and get a sense of where renewable energy was heading, just to remind you of where we were back then. We were facing a couple of elections ahead of us and the possibility for new or different federal governments, political government or provincial government. Sorry, looking at affordability conversations worldwide, momentum around clean generation. In this clip that we're going to play, we really talk about how renewable energy doesn't advance in isolation. It moves forward because of political, economic and technological factors that really help shape those conditions and create those conditions for growth, and those are essential if we do want to grow together. So I'm going to play this clip here and have a listen to kind of what we were thinking about at the beginning of 2025 and just a quick teaser, we'll be doing something similar in the early part of 2026 and so that'll give us a chance to maybe pick apart how close we were to reality. So without further ado, let's dive into those areas. Area number one is politics. So energy is political, and energy shapes politics, and politics shapes energy, and that's the same every year, but 2025, is shaping up to be a pretty significant year when it comes to political change that might impact energy policy. So to start with, we are mere days away, a little over a week away, as I record this from a new US administration. The Trump administration will take over on January 20, and like any change in administration, in what is arguably the biggest economy in the world that will have an impact on climate change policy, Energy policy, the flow of goods across borders. You know, there's talk of tariffs between Canada and the US. So just because it is in the United States, that doesn't mean it won't impact us here in Canada. So we'll be looking to see what change that does bring, what how that influences politics and energy policy and the flow of goods and all of those things that can impact what we do with energy a little bit closer to home. However, we also have some change potentially coming here in Ontario, at least, we are looking at potentially two elections this year. So to start with, there's the federal election. It is very, very likely, almost a sure thing, that we will see a federal election in the coming months. Justin Trudeau has recently announced his resignation, which will almost definitely trigger an election. So we could be looking at a new government or a new mandate for the existing government. So what might that mean? Well, if the. The liberal party, the current government manages to get another mandate and remain in power, we kind of know what their priorities are. They've been going down a path for the last little while. They will probably continue to invest in clean energy infrastructure. They will continue to push for net zero goals and look for ways to support others to achieve Net Zero targets as well. If there's a change in governments, which the polling suggests is likely that conservatives get into power, they are likely to look to prioritize affordability and resource sector competitiveness. They may also adjust timelines for emissions targets as a result of that, the one big thing that's worth mentioning, of course, is the price on carbon. This was brought in by the existing Liberal government, and they stand behind it. The Conservatives are very much campaigning on a platform of getting rid of the price on carbon, the Federal price on carbon, that will have significant impact on energy policy and how things move. There are a few previous episodes that you can listen to that talk a little bit about that, and I'm sure we'll talk about it throughout the year as things play out. And finally, in this section, in Ontario, it's very likely that we might see a provincial election as well. All signs are kind of pointing towards a provincial election this year. So what could that mean? Well, similarly, our existing government has kind of made their energy policy known. We know what their focus is, so they are focused on expanding our traditional energy mix, so nuclear, some natural gas, as well as some investments in renewables in order to make sure that the grid can handle growth and electrification in the sort of rising demand that we're seeing. Should we see a change in government to one of the opposition parties? There may be more of a push for more renewable sources and lowering those carbon emissions faster than the current pace of change, at least based on what they are saying. So we'll keep an eye on that and how that comes into play. Obviously, energy is sort of primarily in the provincial jurisdiction here, so a change in government or a new mandate for the existing government would certainly have a big impact on energy policy. So area number one politics, area number two is energy affordability. So as we've said, renewable energy progress doesn't just depend on the technology itself, it depends on the systems around it. 2025 really turned out to be a pretty pivotal year. And I think we'll probably look at every year in recent history and moving forward as pivotal years, because there was this convergence of political shifts and economic pressures and policy decisions that in some ways created a supportive environment for renewable energy planning and implementation, but not without barriers and not without challenges and so we're probably not where we would have wanted to be at the end of 2025 if we Were being absolutely optimistic. And thinking about a great outcome for the end of the year, but that's not to say progress wasn't made. As we close out part two of our holiday rewind, one thing becomes crystal clear, and something that I want to highlight, renewable energy isn't just a single technology or single story, it's a movement made of many different interconnected pieces, from the specific technologies of DERs that empower our customers to the buildings that are evolving into clean energy assets, to the batteries that are helping unlock flexibility in our renewable energy systems, to systems like district energy that are really transforming communities and campuses, and finally, to the policies and trends and, you know, other forces that are really shaping the pace of all this progress together, they show that there is a future that's cleaner and smarter and more resilient and far more electrified. These things are possible, and we are moving in that direction. The big question is always the pace that we're moving at. Thanks for joining me for our final rewind of the year. In fact, our final episode of the year. On behalf of the entire thinkenergy team, we really are grateful for your time, your curiosity and your commitment to understanding the energy transition, and, quite frankly, to your expertise. I know a lot of folks listening, and everybody that I have on the show really has a lot of great thinking and knowledge on these topics, and I'm really appreciative of getting to talk to those folks and bring some of that insight to the show. We will be back in the new year, absolutely, with more conversations that the goal is to illuminate and challenge and inspire and really continue this conversation with all of you and with our fantastic guests. Until then, stay warm, stay safe and stay energized. Thanks for listening. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the thinkenergy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Canada's energy transition isn't coming. It's already here. As 2025 winds down, Trevor shares a holiday rewind featuring five of the most electrifying conversations from the thinkenergy podcast this year. From clean energy trends and Hydro Ottawa's investment plan to grid modernization, the rise of DERs, and decarbonizing buildings. Sit down with something warm and revisit the insights, challenges, and big ideas that defined our fast-moving energy landscape in 2025.

Related links

• Episode 149 (Looking ahead at 2025 clean energy trends): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/looking-ahead-at-2025-clean-energy-trends/

• Episode 160 (Digging into Hydro Ottawa's historically large investment plan): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/summer-rewind-digging-into-hydro-ottawas-historically-large-investment-plan/

• Episode 162 (Consumer impact: revisiting grid modernization with Capgemini Canada): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/consumer-impact-revisiting-grid-modernization-with-capgemini-canada/

• Episode 163 (How Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) are reshaping the grid): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/thinkenergy-shorts-how-distributed-energy-resources-ders-are-reshaping-the-grid/

• Episode 150 (Decarbonizing Canada's buildings with the Building Decarbonization Alliance): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/decarbonizing-canadas-buildings-with-the-building-decarbonization-alliance/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-cem-leed-ap-8b612114/

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

To subscribe using Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinkenergy/id1465129405

To subscribe using Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/show/7wFz7rdR8Gq3f2WOafjxpl

To subscribe on Libsyn:

http://thinkenergy.libsyn.com/

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Subscribe so you don't miss a video: https://www.youtube.com/user/hydroottawalimited

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Stay in the know on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HydroOttawa

Keep up with the posts on X: https://twitter.com/thinkenergypod

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:00

Welcome to thinkenergy, a podcast that dives into the fast, changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts, feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydro ottawa.com, hi everyone, and welcome back. This is our special holiday rewind edition of the thinkenergy podcast, which has become a bit of a tradition around here. I'm your host, Trevor Freeman, and as we settle into the final days of the year, it feels like the perfect time to slow down and take a look back at some of the conversations that we feel really shaped 2025 at least, for the podcast and in our own minds. This year, we explored everything from grid modernization to decarbonizing buildings distributed energy resources (DERs) and some of the technologies that are really defining how Canadians live, work and stay connected. Today's episode is the first of a two-part holiday rewind series, each part highlighting five standout episodes that we feel really sparked ideas curiosity and great discussions throughout the year. So pull up a comfortable seat, pour yourself something seasonal and festive, and join me as we revisit some of the insights and innovations that we feel lit up 2025 to start with, we kicked off 2025 with a forward looking conversation on some of the trends that we thought might shape the year, and to be honest that many of them unfolded even more quickly than we expected. In our first episode of 2025 we looked at clean energy trends. We talked through how electrification and AI driven grid intelligence and new customer expectations were really going to change the landscape in real time for us, here's a moment that we captured just how quickly the industry is accelerating and why adaptability is so important to us. At the same time, utilities across the country will continue to invest in grid modernization. So as well as infrastructure expansion, not just modernization, we're also building and growing our grids to keep up with the pace of change, but we need to also be able to leverage more DERs on the grid, so more distributed energy resources, small scale solar generation, things like that. So we will continue to see utilities make steps in that direction. They will look to levels of government to support those initiatives, through programs and funding and regulatory change. So we will continue to see that change in grid modernization, but I know it's definitely a big topic for us here at hydro Ottawa. And finally, in this section, energy efficiency. Energy efficiency is not new. It's been around for quite a while. In fact, it was the primary focus, kind of before we shifted a little bit more towards thinking about carbon. But we cannot fully decarbonize, we cannot fully electrify without significant energy efficiency. We just won't be able to affordably build the infrastructure we need if we're not using energy in an efficient way. So that will continue to be a focus. And in fact, I mentioned the new incentive programs from the province of Ontario that is very much designed to support ongoing energy efficiency measures. So we will continue to see that as a focus in 2025 and our final area, area number five, is technology. So there is no year anymore. In fact, maybe there never was where technology doesn't continue to grow and expand and evolve in ways that we couldn't even imagine, and it does seem like the pace of change is picking up, but I think that's kind of normal. So we will see technology that supports or augments the energy transition continue to evolve in 2025 and the ways that technology influenced that really, you know, we have an idea on some of them, and it'll be interesting to look back in 12 months at what we know in December, 2025 that we didn't even know here today in January. So there you have it. That's going back 12 months. And my expectation of what 2025 might have in store in the new year, I'll be doing a similar deep dive on some of the trends that we've been seeing over the course of this year and what we might expect to continue into 2026 but that idea that the pace of change is accelerating certainly became one of the defining themes of the year, and I think is something that we can expect to stick with us for the foreseeable future. And I think you'll hear echoes of that in all the different episodes that we revisit today. Next up, a modern, reliable grid doesn't just happen. It's built through long term planning, thoughtful investments and a deep understanding of how our communities are growing and how their energy needs are changing. In an episode that we. Least back in June, we unpacked hydro Ottawa's 2026 to 2030 investment plan, and what that means for reliability and customer experience and preparing the system for tomorrow. In this next clip, I chat with Hydro Ottawa's Guillaume Paradis to really get into why it's so critical that we get our investment in the next five years, right for our grid, so that that's a nice segue into his next question, which is, of course, there's a cost for this, and this is why it is an investment plan we're out there outlining. These are our targets. This is what we want to do, but there's a cost to that, and so if we don't do this, if we said, look, we just can't put that extra investment into these areas, what are the implications on the grid, on our service? And let's look at kind of like, quality of service, reliability, safety, etc, if we don't make these investments that we are identifying right now.

Guillaume Paradis 06:03

Yeah, so it's pretty direct, right? What we've done for the in preparation for our rate application, in preparation for to develop our plans for 26 to 2030 is we've considered all the needs. We've looked at how old the assets are, how quickly they're deteriorating, how many might require replacement over the next five years, what would be an appropriate rate of replacement to ensure that we don't let risk build up in our system, we don't cause reliability issues. We've looked at how we make sure that we can provide service to our customers, that we can connect them in a timely manner, that we can do all those things in a fashion that is safe and ensures the safety of the public, our customers. And so a lot of thought goes into what is required over the next five years. And then on top of those factors and considerations, we also look at what impact will this have financially on our customers, because we're mindful that our service does affect, you know, our customers live, yes, in a positive manner when our service is reliable and power is available, but also financially. From a cost standpoint, we add to other pressures that everyone experiences in their lives, and so we want to be very judicious in setting the size of our programs the level of investments in managing those various factors, right? So we have a multifaceted responsibility, and we weigh all those factors in in our setting the plans for the future. So doing so looking five years out, as you can probably imagine, you know, if we didn't constrain the plans, if we just did everything our planning engineers would like to do, we would have spent probably another 50% more than what is in the current plan. So looking at old assets, looking at the service levels we want to deliver, we could have spent a significantly larger amount of money if it was purely based on we'll call them planning, you know, drivers. But as I said, we are mindful that we're responsible for the quality of our service on behalf of all our customers. And we took a very deliberate, extensive approach to adjusting the program size to match the various considerations and ultimately manage the impact on our customers from a financial standpoint. And so we landed where we are after some measure of restraint, some measure of adjustments down to the plans that would otherwise have been put in place. So thinking about what the outcomes would be if we didn't take the actions we're proposing. You know, it's pretty direct, if you think about it, and we've covered most of them, but it ranges from, you know, difficulties in connecting and delivering power to new customers in a timely manner so that can have impacts with respect to economic development and growth of our community so fairly direct, and frankly, you know, it's our obligation to connect, so we would do everything we can to provide power, but it might just be more difficult take more time on the reliability front again, what happens when you don't replace old assets is the failure risks continue to build in your system. So an 80 year old wood pole doesn't get any younger and. Doesn't get any stronger if you wait five, six more years. And so as I said, we do a risk assessment before we choose to invest, and our risk assessments tell us that we need to take action on those type of assets. And you know, take action in a timely manner. If we don't, what is likely to happen is that in a storm scenario, those polls that are deteriorated are more likely to fail, even in normal conditions, it's likely that we would see more failures that could lead to reliability issues, and so just a direct impact on the quality of our service for our customers, with respect to other outcomes, like enabling customers and supporting them in integrating more embedded energy resources, that might just become more difficult, as I said earlier, when we're don't have good real time awareness, we have to err on the side of caution and be more conservative in our management of the system, and that might mean restrictions on where and how we can integrate renewable energy resources. And then ultimately, you know, the paramount consideration for us is always safety, and that's an area where we would just have to be even more vigilant if we couldn't reinvest so old assets are inherently more likely to create failure risks and failures can lead to undesirable outcomes from a safety standpoint. So we would have to and already do, but be very vigilant in monitoring those assets, looking at them, looking at what we can do from a maintenance standpoint to ensure that they don't fail in a manner that would be problematic. So we would be an R always very active in looking at those riskier assets, those older assets, to make sure they don't cause problems. But reducing investment levels from what is being proposed now, reducing them further relative to, as I said, the planning levels we would have liked to put forward would have real consequences. And of course, we would do everything we can to manage those consequences and ensure that, you know, we continue to deliver the best service we can, but that would become more difficult than it is today.

Trevor Freeman 12:29

So that forward focus, that planning for the city that Ottawa is becoming and our energy needs of the future really reflects that shifting mindset that we're seeing across the whole sector. And I think we saw that throughout 2025 and certainly are going to keep seeing that throughout 2026 for our next clip, one of our most popular conversations of the year, not surprisingly, was with Andrea Nuesser from Capgemini, Canada. Andrea and I dug deep into what it means to modernize the grid, how technology, data, cybersecurity and customer expectations are all coming together and pushing utilities into a new era of grid management and grid design. This was a really great, wide-ranging conversation, but there was one moment that really stood out for its clarity and simplicity, and it highlighted this idea that modernizing the grid isn't just about technology alone. It's primarily about people. Yeah, well, let's do that right now. Actually, it's exactly where I wanted to go. Next is you and I have chatted before and talked about how there is this shift in how utilities are seeing customers, and there's a traditional mindset of how utilities looked at their customers, which has been different from you know, take your average retail customer, or retail relationship between an organization and a customer, utilities are shifting more. So let's dive into that. Tell me a little bit more about what that shift is, and how you see utilities moving in terms of how they engage with customers.

Andrea Nuesser 14:00

Yeah, so when I started working with utilities, the term rate payer was a very prominent term. So utilities would refer to their customers as rate payers, or in terms of account numbers, really and what mattered was really just how much electricity do these accounts or these rate payers consume, and there was very little other consideration around that. So I think there's a real shift happening right now where utilities are trying to understand who is this, who is this family, who are these individuals behind these account numbers? Because if I understand and if I become interested as a utility in who is actually consuming electricity, I can have a very different relationship with them. I can reach them with the right messaging, because it matters a lot to me. And if somebody talks to me and understands that. Let's say I'm a growing family living in a more urban area versus a retired couple out in the booth somewhere. So I think demonstrating that understanding really opens up opportunities for much deeper relationship and more targeted customer programs and overall, different messaging and communication, and ultimately an opportunity to build trust between customers and utilities, something that in the past, has been a little bit shaky, I would say, but there's huge opportunity to build brand awareness, to build this, this value based relationship and to build trust.

Trevor Freeman 15:45

I really liked this conversation, and I liked this particular moment because it really conveys that grid modernization goes beyond just the technological improvements, and it really prioritizes the human relationships and human interaction at the heart of our energy system, ultimately, all of this that we talk about on the show, the technology, the strategies, the policies, it's all about how we as people, as energy consumers, interact with our energy systems and use it to do all the other things in our life that are important doing, you know, heating our spaces and traveling and moving our families from one place to another, and all these things that are actually the important things are tied up in the energy system. And I liked how this conversation really tied those, those two concepts together. Next up this year, we definitely talked about distributed energy resources. It's been a theme of the podcast for a long time now, but we really are seeing lots of movement and progress. And this episode that I'm about to highlight really broke down how rooftop solar, battery storage, EVs, smart devices, they're all creating a more dynamic, flexible and decentralized grid. So it's taking DERs from just kind of standalone devices that do their own thing to really this ecosystem of devices and technologies that interact together. In this clip that you're about to hear, we explore why DERs, they're not just a technical change, but they're really a cultural one as well. One option to set up your der for financial reasons, is net metering, which I kind of alluded to earlier. Net metering is a setup for renewable generation sources only that allows you to use as much of your generation as you can to power your home when you're using it, and then push back whatever you don't use to the grid. Whatever you push back to the grid will give you a credit on your bill that you can use to offset the electricity charge portion of your bill. In the near future, you will also likely see more utilities wanting to partner with der owners. Here at hydro Ottawa, we are working on a technology project that will be launched next year that will enable der owners to leverage their devices for an incentive to help manage the grid in targeted areas. It's pretty exciting stuff, and it's really the next wave of distributed energy resources on our grid and how we're going to interact with them. It's pretty exciting. And finally, last one for this episode, one of our more thought provoking conversations of the year was with Bryan Flannigan from the Building Decarbonization Alliance. In this conversation, we talked about decarbonizing Canada's buildings. Bryan helped us really unpack why buildings are such a significant part of Canada's emissions profile, and why solutions require systems thinking, collaboration and long-term commitment. This clip really kind of captures the heart of that conversation, balancing practicality with urgency. Yeah, I know on this show, we talk a lot about the different parts of, as you said, all of society that need to be decarbonized. Obviously, buildings kind of comes to the forefront often, and so specifically around buildings talk us through this, maybe kind of a basic question, but, you know, help our listeners understand, why are buildings so important? Why is the decarbonization of our built environments so important when it comes to decarbonizing all of society?

Bryan Flannigan 19:17

Yeah, I mean, that's the crux of the question, right? Well, there's a bunch of reasons. I mean, if you think about it, the building, this is where we live, right? These are our homes. These are this is where we go to work. This is our place. Is a business from an economic perspective, organizations arrive in jurisdictions for the purposes of meeting their overall objectives. And if you require energy intensive sort of production. Or if you want to have a big workforce, you want to house your workforce in buildings that align with your objectives. And increasingly, those objectives feature a carbon kind of future, right? And so just from that perspective, it's important for us to kind of get aligned with the global trend toward this, to make sure that we have the investments that we need. And that we want to attract, and we want to have places where people can live that are aligned with those kinds of values. But from an emissions perspective, it's hard to kind of overstate how important the sector actually winds up being. The building sector emits about 90 megatons, give or take, of direct scope one emissions. And if you factor in the grid emissions that result from being buildings being connected to the grids across Canada. It's about 120 megatons. There are digits there that we could go into. But to put it into context, that's about the same as all of the vehicles on the road. So when we think about how important it is to electrify the fleet of vehicles that we're all driving, the building sector is the same. It's the same level of importance. And if we think about all of the work that we've done to decarbonize our electricity system over the years, eliminating coal plants, and those kinds of initiatives that we hear are in the news recently, the building sector emits about twice as much as all of that. And so, the context is that buildings are pretty vast in terms of the overall emissions. And when we think about where those emissions come from, ultimately, it's combustion of fossil fuels for heating our buildings. We're in a cold climate in Canada, takes a lot of energy to heat buildings, and because of the abundance of the resource and a bunch of policy decisions that have been made decades ago, you know, we're in a situation where we've got an abundant and relatively inexpensive source of fossil fuel to heat our buildings. It's about 1500 petajoules, I guess, give or take, and ultimately, we need to move to eliminate that over time, or to largely eliminate it. I mean, I think there's always going to be a bit left in the system. There's, you know, it's, it's a very complex and daunting task, because the building sector itself is very diverse. The buildings last a really long time. It's not like, you know, technology change, where you have if you want to change a phone, you can upgrade it from one year to the next. It's small. It fits in your pocket. It's easy to manage. But buildings are constructed to last hundreds, 100 years. 50 years is the typical lifespan. But, you know, we have lots of buildings that are very, very old, and it's a slow kind of system to turn over. It's a slow inventory to turn over. So it's a really big challenge, a lot of a lot of emissions from the sector. And so it rises to the level of really needing close attention and a different approach than what we've been taking in the past.

Trevor Freeman 22:15

Bryan's point there about systems level planning really resonates deeply with all the things we've been talking about this year, because none of these challenges exist in isolation. And systems thinking and systems planning is really this important concept or this important ethos, and something I actually want to explore further. And so keep your eyes open for an episode on that sometime in 2026 so as we wrap up this first of two holiday rewind episodes. The few themes keep rising to the surface. There's the accelerating pace of electrification. No question that we're seeing electrification continue to move forward, and to do so at an increasing pace, despite some bumps in the road, and we're going to see that. We're going to see two steps forward and one step back. But I think we're still seeing an increased pace of electrification, we are seeing the importance of modernization, of moving the technologies that we use to monitor and manage the grid forward in terms of, you know, catching up to where we are with modern technology. And we're also seeing the need for long-term thinking as Canada transitions towards a, you know, low or no carbon future towards net zero as we electrify our lives, we need to have that long term vision in mind, whether we're talking about the future of buildings, upgrading the grid, embracing distributed energy resources or navigating some new and emerging technologies. There's one truth that kind of stood out, and it's something I've said before, but I really want to make sure everyone kind of sits with this and appreciates it. Is that the energy transition is not something that is going to happen? It's not something that's in the future. It is something that's happening right now. We are in the midst of the energy transition. It's not going to be over tomorrow. It's not one of these things that happens very quickly, but we are living it right now. We are seeing it all around us, and it's something that I'm really excited about, talking on this podcast about and with our fantastic guests, and I'm glad to have all of you along with us on that journey. So join us in two weeks for the second part of our holiday rewind series. On that one, we're going to turn the spotlight towards renewable energy and revisit some of the conversations that inspired us the most in 2025 until then, from all of us at think energy, warm wishes for the holiday season. I hope you're staying warm and safe and have a great December and thanks for listening. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the thinkenergy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback, comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Waves, river currents, and tidal turbines could help power Canada's clean energy future. Trevor speaks with Elisa Obermann, Executive Director at Marine Renewables Canada, about the promise of marine energy and how countries like Canada are pursuing its potential. They explore how emerging 'blue energy' technologies complement solar and wind, support coastal and Indigenous communities, and move us toward a more sustainable, diverse net-zero grid.

Related links

• Marine Renewables Canada: https://marinerenewables.ca/

• Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy (FORCE): https://fundyforce.ca/

• canmetENERGY: https://natural-resources.canada.ca/science-data/science-research/research-centres/canmetenergy

• Yuquot Wave Energy Project: https://barkley.ca/project/yuquot-wave-energy-project/

• Blind Channel Tidal Energy Demonstration Centre: https://onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca/primed/blind-channel/

• European Marine Energy Center (EMEC): https://www.emec.org.uk/

• Canadian Hydrokinetic Turbine Test Centre: (CHTTC): http://www.chttc.ca/

• Elisa Obermann on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/elisa-obermann-07469245/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:00

Welcome to thinkenergy, a podcast that dives into the fast, changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts, feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydro ottawa.com, hi everyone, and welcome back. I have a really great conversation for you today, but before I get to that, I think it's worth a minute or two of time to revisit some first principles people approach the energy conversation from all different backgrounds and angles, and I think it's good to make sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to some foundational knowledge before we dive into our topic today, the thing that I want to quickly review is electricity generation. Now don't worry, we're not going to get into an advanced physics level of knowledge on this, but I just want to quickly refresh everyone on the basics. And by the same token, to all of you advanced physics folks out there that are listening, please forgive me if I'm slightly off on a detail or two, as long as I don't mess up the core foundational information. So for the most part, the electricity that we use is primarily generated by spinning a coil of wire around a magnet, or inversely, spinning a magnet inside a coil of wire that causes electrons to move, and that flow of electrons is electricity. For the most part, that combination of coiled wire and magnets and a spinning motion is what makes most of our electricity. There is one major exception to this, which is solar power that doesn't involve spinning anything. But other than that, our major electricity sources utilize that spinning motion, and I'm not including hydrogen fuel cells here as a major source of electricity. So let's keep going with this spinning idea. Then the next question is, how do we make things spin? One very common method is heat. Let's say you burn something, coal or natural gas, for example, which creates heat. You then use that heat to boil water, which makes steam, which you can push at high pressure against turbine blades to make them spin. It's as simple as that. The problem is, burning things creates harmful emissions, which are causing climate change. You can also generate heat with non emitting sources, and a major one, especially here in Ontario, is nuclear power, splitting atoms in a controlled environment, a nuclear reaction generates heat and then the process is the same as previously described. So as complex as a nuclear reactor is its main purpose when it comes to electricity generation, is simply making heat so we can boil water and create steam, et cetera, other than heat. The other way to make things spin is to utilize naturally occurring kinetic energy. So that means something that's already happening out there that carries a lot of force that can push a turbine blade. This would include wind energy, so using the force of the wind to turn large wind turbines and hydro electricity, which uses water being pulled downhill by gravity, so a flowing river or a large dam to turn that turbine the same end results that spinning motion, but no need to create heat to get there. We're almost done with the science lesson, so just bear with me for another few seconds as we think about reducing our carbon emissions, finding ways to generate electricity that don't require burning fossil fuels is really important. Solar definitely has a role to play, but we also need more emissions free ways to spin things. I mentioned some of the more traditional ones, like solar and wind energy, but today's conversation is about some lesser known, emerging methods, which are covered by the term marine renewable energy generation. Phew, it was a long walk to get there, but we finally got here. All of that is to tee up my conversation today with Elisa Obermann, the Executive Director of Marine Renewables Canada. Marine Renewables Canada is the National Association for tidal wave and river current energy in addition to offshore wind. But it's those first three generation strategies that I am particularly interested in as non mainstream ways to spin things. These technologies are known as blue energy, but are often overshadowed by the more common renewable energies that we talked about, solar and wind generation. So I'm really excited to chat with Elisa to shed some light on them. Today. Elisa has served as the executive director of marine renewables Canada since 2015 she's a founding member of both the Electricity Alliance Canada and the Canadian Council on Renewable Electricity. She has also worked for several other organizations that focus on clean technology, tidal energy and the broader renewable energy sector, including Sustainable Development Technology Canada, the Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy. Which you'll hear us talk about today as force and Nova scotia's Department of Energy. Elisa Obermann, welcome to the show.

Elisa Obermann 05:07

Hi. Thank you very much for having me.

Trevor Freeman 05:09

So, let's start off kind of with the basics. Elisa, why don't you tell us a little bit about your background and how you got into this pretty unique space in the energy sector that we're going to dive into a little bit more.

Elisa Obermann 05:22

Sure. So I decided after doing my undergrad, so I'm going kind of way back here, all the way back. Yeah, exactly. I did a degree, a bachelor's degree in English, but I really wanted to get involved in something that would help me do more for the environment, play a role in the future. So I decided to go back to school to do a public policy degree. And the first internship I had was with Nova Scotia Department of Energy, and it was actually on the oil and gas side of things, but my thinking was, well, this will get me eventually to where I want to go and working more in renewables. And that's essentially exactly what happened. And so I started working more and more there on renewable energy. Then started working on the province's marine renewable energy strategy. So it really kind of got me into this kind of path of, you know, working on climate change and renewable energy. And the other thing I will also say is that I grew up in Maine and really close to the ocean, and so after university, I moved to Toronto for a while, and I thought to myself, like, I really just want to do something that takes me back to the ocean. So this really combines both kind of goals I had for myself, in terms of working to protect and help the environment, and then also staying close to the ocean.

Trevor Freeman 06:35

Yeah. I mean, that makes a ton of sense. It's interesting. I talked to a lot of people, obviously, and often the question of career path comes up, and it's funny to see the things that we're passionate about in those early days, no one could guess how that comes to fruition later on in our careers. And you know, I've got some similar stories of wanting to save the world when I was in university and having no idea how the different paths that that would take me on. So great to hear your story. Thanks for sharing that. Tell us now a little bit about your organization, marine renewable Canada, and you know, kind of its vision for how marine renewables will fit into the energy sector.

Elisa Obermann 07:10

Yeah. So marine renewables Canada is a National Association. We're headquartered in Halifax, but we do work across the country, and actually, our beginnings were in British Columbia, really starting around like wave energy, small scale projects. One of our founding members at the time was BC Hydro. We now have over 200 members, and that's really grown just in the past couple years, because our focus is on wave, tidal, river current energy, but also offshore wind. And so there's been a lot of excitement, especially on the East Coast, around offshore wind, but today I'll probably focus mostly on kind of those water resources and how we're working to advance those. Our mandate is really to champion the sector, help with advocacy, engagement, education, and also expand market opportunities. So obviously we do a lot of work around enabling policies that help open up that market, both here, but also globally. But ultimately, what we'd like to see is that marine renewables is playing a role in getting Canada to net zero and right now. I mean, it's a more emerging technology, if you look at wave, tidal and river, but there's a lot of potential for it to play a big role.

Trevor Freeman 08:20

Yeah, so great. And that's a great segue into kind of the next thing I want to talk about on this show. We often talk about, let's call them the more traditional or conventional or well known energy sources, so our kind of traditional fossil fuel combustion, our other renewable sources, solar and wind, and even offshore wind, I think people have a sense of what that is. I mean, wind energy is the same on land as off land. It's just in a different location. But tell us about the types of marine energy that you're talking about. You just referenced some of them here, you know, take us back to basics. What are we talking about when we talk about marine energy?

Elisa Obermann 08:56

Yeah, absolutely. So I would categorize it as four main kinds, but I also will mention that there are some that our association doesn't cover. And I will touch on those, sure, primarily. So we focus on tidal energy. And when I say tidal I don't mean barrages or dams, which were kind of a more prevalent technology, you know, decades ago. What I'm talking about is what we call tidal stream and so essentially, if you think of, you know, what wind turbines look like, it's essentially a wind turbine, but in the water, so it can be developed or deployed incrementally, which is a lot different than what you think of when you think of a dam that has, you know, very long lasting effects. The idea behind title is that you can install it incrementally if there's concerns and with any kind of impacts to the environment, or concerns with, you know, the technology failing, or anything like that, you are able to remove it, or, you know, have maintenance on it fairly quickly. Wave Energy is another one that we focus on. It's the technology is not as far along as tidal in terms of, you know, getting to a commercial state. And there are many different. Different types of concepts, still for Wave technologies, but essentially, they can be placed near shore or further offshore. One of the things that's been, I think, kind of cool to think about is there's discussions around and some prototype type projects around using wave energy to power, for example, oil and gas platforms and doing that kind of, you know, pairing to help decarbonize that sector's energy use, river current. So I will say a lot of people think marine like that doesn't, you know, make sense rivers, you know, not by the ocean. And the reason we look at it and categorize it as a Marine renewable energy is that the technology is very similar to title, and so it's essentially the same technology that's used, except that it is unidirectional. So when you think of the flow of river, it's going one way, whereas tides, the technology would be used as a bi directional because the tides are going in and out. So but otherwise very, very similar. And then we actually also cover offshore wind, which is, of all of those, you know, a more mature marine renewable technology. And as I said, I think probably today I'll talk mostly about some of the earlier stage technologies. Our association doesn't cover a few others, and I just feel like they're worth mentioning, just because they're kind of cool. Also, floating solar is one that is gaining, you know, I think some more popularity, and also people are looking more what you know, how much of an impact it could have, ocean current technology, which would be kind of further offshore, and ocean thermal. And you can imagine, Ocean Thermal hasn't really been talked about a lot in Canada, because you have colder waters. Like, the technology just isn't right, the right fit.

Trevor Freeman 11:35

Got you okay? So I want to, I've got a whole whack of questions I want to understand, make sure I'm understanding the technology correctly. So let's start with Tidal. For Tidal, obviously, just a quick refresher back to, let's say grade 10 science for our listeners. Tides kind of come in and come out. The water moves up and moves down. You're utilizing that flow of water, that movement of water, which happens twice a day. Is that, right? Twice a day, every 12 hours?

Elisa Obermann 12:02

Yep,

Trevor Freeman 12:02

Good, yeah, just making sure I remember my grades and science most part. And you're using that movement of water to turn turbines that are underwater. Describe those for us. Is that, like you kind of related it to wind energy? Is it like a big wind turbine underwater? Does it look the same? Is it similar to that?

Elisa Obermann 12:20

Yeah, I mean, there's still a few different concepts, but essentially, yeah, that's how you could picture in your mind. I will say some are bottom mounted. So as an example, like it might have a gravity base and be anchored to the well, not even anchored. It could just be the weight of it is holding it to the sea floor. Some of the newer tidal technologies are floating. They're kind of like, on a pontoon type device, and they will have kind of the, you know, the turbines connected to that. But essentially, they're, you know, either way, whether it's floating or seabed mounted, it would be capturing the kinetic energy of the tides

Trevor Freeman 12:54

Gotcha, okay. And then for the run of river ones, it's, it's kind of the same thing. Water is flowing. Typically, rivers are flowing downhill, so that water is always moving, and you've got a turbine in there taking advantage of the fact that that water is moving in a situation where there isn't a dam that's using sort of gravity flow. It's, but it's the same idea. It's, it's flowing water that's turning a turbine. Yes, exactly. So then the one that I'm, I'm sort of not entirely clear on, is waves, like, what is the mechanism there? Is it just the same thing? You're just putting it in a location where there's prevailing waves generated by wind or current or whatever.

Elisa Obermann 13:28

Yeah, that one, I will say, is harder to describe, because I've mentioned there's many different concepts for it, but essentially, if you think of waves like so one concept, maybe this will be easy to visualize, would be more of like a buoy type device, and so it's capturing the height of the wave, like that energy coming through. There's some also called like an oyster. So it opens, like the device opens and closes to capture kinetic energy from waves as well. There's a number of different devices when it comes to to wave energy. And I will also say, depending on where, whether it's closer to shore or further offshore, that the strength of the energy from waves is also can be different too. .

Trevor Freeman 14:08

Yeah. So that's actually what, exactly what my next question was is, how far offshore are we placing these things? Are they like, right at the shore's edge? Are they visible? Are they kind of, you know, whatever, 100 metre out? 500 metres out?

Elisa Obermann 14:22

Yeah, in terms of for TIDAL, I mean, it would be closer to shore, but not necessary. I mean, still quite far out. It's not like you're looking at it and you're, you know, few 100 feet away, further. As an example, like in Nova Scotia, the Bay of Fundy has had several tidal deployments, and it depends on where you are. So there was one that was in a area called southwest Nova Scotia, where, if you were in the harbor, there in Briar Island, is where it was. You could see it right there, like it was very, very close, whereas those being deployed further out. So it really just depends on the location, but also potential impacts to other users. You know. Fisheries, all those kinds of things are considered when they're they're just determining location.

Trevor Freeman 15:04

Got you. And one last question, I apologize, I'm totally going off script here, but you've got me all excited about this, and lots of questions. How is this connected back to land? So you must be running cables, you're generating electricity, you're bringing that back to land, and there's some sort of transformation or storage. It's connected to the provincial grid. Like, what's the connection back to the grid look like?

Elisa Obermann 15:28

Exactly, yeah. So you're exactly right. There will be subsea cables that these devices will be connected to. They'll run to shore. Typically, they'll be connected to a substation, which then would be, you know, transmitting that energy electricity, I should say, to a distribution system or the transmission system. So as an example, force has pretty impressive subsea cables that have already been laid about 64 megawatts capacity with those and they built a substation at that site that then connects to the transmission system.

Trevor Freeman 15:59

Cool, very cool, awesome. Thank you for that. Thanks for entertaining my sort of nerdy curiosity there. So tell us about the benefits. Why is this something that the energy sector should be looking at? What are the benefits of this type of generation?

Elisa Obermann 16:14

Good question, and we get asked a lot. I will say, you know, why are we looking at Marine Renewables when we have solar and onshore wind and hydro that are proven and come at a lower cost, but we know we're going to need more electricity, and so the way we look at we can't put all of our eggs in one basket. We need energy diversity. But also marine renewables, such as Tidal and waves, they have some attributes that other renewables don't, so they can be very complementary to other renewable energy, and actually help to bring on other sources of renewables because of that, you know the synergies that they have. So as an example, and you mentioned it at the beginning, tidal is predictable, so we know when the tides are going to come in and out. We can schedule that. I mean, for energy system planning, we would know even 100 years from now, when exactly is that tide coming out? When is it going to be at peak? And so that's one that is very helpful in terms of reliability, predictability, all those things with waves also, I will say, I mean, they're very similar in some ways, because they are created by wind. So it's kind of the same concept, if you think of bringing it onto the grid, but there is an ability to forecast them further out. And one of the interesting things with wave energy, British Columbia had done some work, and I will say, I think it was the University of Victoria A while ago, just looking at the timing of them and when they're the most strong and powerful and consistent. And they found that they were strongest during peak times, like when BC would really need more power, so in the winter, during stormier times, that kind of thing. So those resources can be a very good match with other resources that maybe, you know, sometimes they they're not generating as much power at a given time.

Trevor Freeman 17:56

Yeah, yeah. I mean, that kind of gets into to where I wanted to go next is, how does this work alongside wind and solar and sort of traditional hydro? You kind of answered that a little bit. We know that we need to grow our greater our energy demand is going to grow. You know, here in Ontario, we're looking at a 75% increase. Across Canada, we're looking at sort of two to three times the growth, and especially clean energy. What sort of percentage or how much of a foothold Do you think marine renewable energy has the capability of meeting of that?

Elisa Obermann 18:30

Yeah, that's a great question. So I will tell you now, I don't have the numbers for that, but I will this January, February. We're actually working on a sector vision, looking exactly at that, like the capacity scenarios, what could be feasible, but really trying to take realistic view of you know, this is how much electricity wave, tidal and river and offshore wind could contribute. But what I will say is that when it comes to Tidal, for example, there has been some resource assessments done in the past. Canada has 40,000 megawatts of potential tidal energy, and that's looking at, you know, the best locations. So it's technical potential, but it's, it's also looking at just feasibility in terms of locations, and what might be, you know, close to grids, that kind of thing. Wave energy is between, I think, 10,000 to 16,000 megawatts, looking at both Pacific and Atlantic coasts and with river current still in early phases of doing some of this work. But Natural Resources Canada can met energy, and also the National Research Council did a pretty extensive resource assessment, and it was around 340 gigawatts of river current, I will say, I mean, that's a lot, right? So there's some factors there that are still, you know, they're working on, trying to understand, so ice, for example, because where rivers, you know, some of the strongest river resources are in areas that are in northern Canada, maybe not feasible. So there's still some more work there to determine what's actually feasible for these technologies.

Trevor Freeman 19:59

Are there this kind of just jogged a question for me. Are there other parts of the world where this technology is, let's say, more mature and greater use, or is Canada kind of leading the fray here, like, where are we compared to other parts of the world?

Elisa Obermann 20:15

So I would say Canada has been pretty well known as a global leader in marine renewable energy, and we started this in kind of the early 2000s starting to look at the resources and the technologies and how we could lead. But this was alongside some other countries that have been also doing that work. So the United Kingdom, Scotland, in particular, France and a number of other European countries. The United States has also put quite a bit of investment in R and D technologies, but the UK probably is the furthest along. And one of the reasons for that, and this is different than what we've done in Canada, is they have targeted funding and programs to really support the sector where I find in Canada, there's been, you know, a lot of great supports by both provincial and federal governments, but most of the time we're competing like, there's not a, you know, a specific program for just marine renewable technology. So I think that's had a bit of an impact even on interacting investment here.

Trevor Freeman 21:13

Gotcha, yeah. So you're trying to fit your projects into a bigger project funding envelope that could cover a bunch of different sort of energy related projects, and you're having to say, Yeah, look, ours fits in here too. Is that fair to say?

Elisa Obermann 21:24

Yeah, exactly, exactly. .

Trevor Freeman 21:27

Cool. Okay, I want to shift a little bit here. We often talk on the show about the sort of relationship between energy and society and communities. So what are some community benefits from marine renewable projects. Is this something that sort of has community ownership over it? Does the community get involved in these projects? Tell us a little bit about how that impacts kind of that local level?

Elisa Obermann 21:52

Yeah, I would say, from what we've seen so far, and this is just with, you know, very early demonstration projects, is that the local supply chain has benefited a lot. So there's been some studies showing that for both tidal and wave projects, you would be using probably about 60% local supply chain to build the project. And that's also just because the technology is massive, like you're not going to be shipping this. It's more cost effective to have most of the work done close to the site. And so as an example, again, Bay of Fundy projects that force to date, and the, you know, the research that force has been doing, and some of the R and D, I believe they've, they've used up to 500 local suppliers, or Canadian suppliers, so that's one of the biggest ones. But also just with local communities, there's been a number of things that we've also seen where they've been very engaged in some of these projects. I mean, obviously local businesses have but there are opportunities for local ownership. I think that the challenge right now is that there's still a lot of risk because the technologies aren't as mature as some others, and so some communities are more hesitant to buy into the projects. That said, there is a project in British Columbia, the Yuquot Wave Energy Project, where the Mowachaht/Muchalaht First Nation there is partnering very closely with a wave energy developer to move ahead with a wave technology that can help power their community. So there's all those kinds of things that I think make it attractive to communities, allows them to have some self sufficiency. And in the case of some of these northern, remote and coastal and indigenous communities, there's also that whole, you know, it's potentially displacing diesel in their community. So that's one of the drivers for them, marine renewables. There's been some, you know, studies around this as well showing that it would actually be lower cost than the diesel fuel that they're using in those communities. So there's that benefit as well.

Trevor Freeman 23:42

Gotcha. Yeah, actually, I've got a question here that I wanted to ask you, and so I'll skip to that one about the impact on especially remote indigenous communities that are not connected to the grid. I've had, actually, a few conversations on this show about how, how we go about helping remote and indigenous communities decarbonize getting off of local diesel generation. Are there other projects you mentioned one? Are there other examples of collaboration here? Do you see this as being sort of a relevant tool for that challenge?

Elisa Obermann 24:12

Yeah. So there's another one that I would also mention that I think is a great example again, University of Victoria in British Columbia had been spearheading what they called, it's the blind channel demonstration center. So Initially it started as working to help a, you know, it was like a remote eco kind of lodge become, you know, fully environmentally friendly, using marine renewables for electricity rather than diesel. But since then, they've actually evolved into more of an initiative to test and demonstrate title technologies there, given that it's a remote location, but working very closely with indigenous partners. And so what I think is cool about that is that it's helping indigenous communities to get involved, but not really requiring them to take on. And know, the risk of financing a project, maintaining a project, but it's giving them the opportunity to get the skills and expertise they would need to eventually, you know, bring Tidal or wave energy into their communities at a, you know, at a later date, when they feel more comfortable with the technology and also learn about how that technology impacts the environment and vice versa. Because I have found with communities like that's one of the things that they're most concerned about, is how, you know, how is this technology going to interact with fish or other marine life or the habitat? And so those kinds of smaller demonstrations really help, especially when they're, you know, hands on, and allow community members to be part of the demonstration.

Trevor Freeman 25:40

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you're doing my job for me here, Elisa, you're setting up all my questions perfectly. How does it impact, sort of local marine wildlife? What's the what ecological impact of these we're talking about, fairly complex machinery located in a marine environment. Is there an impact? Has that been studied? Is it comparable it's a sort of a traditional hydro electric dam. What is, what is the impact there?

Elisa Obermann 26:05

So there's been a lot of work in this area, and depending on the location of the project, and that's kind of the caveat I give with us, it can be easier to understand what the impact is. So as an example, in Scotland, I mentioned there's, they've done a lot of work with marine renewables. There's a test center there called the European Marine Energy Center, EMAC, and they have very high flow tidal sites, similar to what we have in Canada. And they're able to use cameras and other equipment to really see exactly what's happening at the site. And so a number of researchers, you know, over the last couple of decades, have been doing environmental monitoring, collecting data, and what we've seen to date is, for the most part, fish and marine life avoid these devices. There's also been research done on electromagnetic fields sound, but I think the biggest concern that people still have is collision with the devices, and what could happen there. Now, coming to Canada, we're in a bit of a different situation. So at the forest site in the Bay of Fundy, you know, there has been quite a bit of environmental monitoring and research done, but the water is very different than what you'd see in Scotland. At this site EMAC, where in the Bay of Fundy, there's a lot of sediment. It's very it's a higher flow site even. So there's, you know, a lot of turbulence, and the environmental monitoring equipment there that you know that exists, it just can't gather all of that information at the site like you can't use a camera and see exactly where fish may be going. So we can't say 100% no, there has been no, you know, fish collisions. What has been happening is that force and government of Canada and the Province of Nova Scotia, and I think also indigenous partners and some of the local researchers in Nova Scotia. So Acadia University, for example, have been partnering, and just recently announced a project to be able to develop those environmental monitoring systems that can work in the Bay of Fundy. And so those will be something, you know, once that's solved, that knowledge and those systems and that technology can be used anywhere in the world to give us a better idea of exactly what are those environmental interactions. But I will say to date, the body of research does show that there hasn't been any significant interactions at this point, but I'm always hesitant to say there hasn't been any, because we can't say that yet.

Trevor Freeman 28:21

Yeah, sure, fair enough. It kind of raises another question in my mind about even just servicing the equipment, or the longevity of the equipment. I mean, in a in a solar field, if you've got a bad panel, you go and you change a panel. A wind turbine, at the very least, is above ground. Not that it's easy to change a blade on a turbine. But what is it like servicing and maintaining the equipment when it's out in a marine environment and underwater? How easy is it? Or is that a challenge?

Elisa Obermann 28:51

Yeah, it's a very good point. It's definitely more challenging than onshore technologies, because you also have, you know, weather windows. So with Tidal, for example, even though you know what stage of the tide is in, plays a huge role in when they can go out and maintain or and service the equipment. And so that's one of the reasons these technologies bring in higher cost for the project overall. Obviously. The other thing I would also mention is just that with both tidal and wave like just depending on what if it's a floating technology versus seabed mounted also makes a difference. So what we've seen is some of these technologies are now evolving to be floating, and again, one of the reasons for that is this whole operations and maintenance piece, because it's obviously a lot easier to bring a vessel out there, get onto the pontoon and be able to service it, versus a whole diving operation, or ROV to go underwater to service it.

Trevor Freeman 29:48

Gotcha, yeah, tow it back to the dock and work on it at the dock.

Elisa Obermann 29:51

Yeah, awesome, exactly.

Trevor Freeman 29:52

Okay, let's switch gears a little bit here and talk about the policy, and let's say regulatory. Worry landscape around this. I've got a question here on funding coming up too, but as our listeners will know, and as you certainly know, energy is a very regulated sector, lots of policy around it. What are some of the policy challenges? Or are there policy challenges when it comes to deploying marine renewables?

Elisa Obermann 30:20

Yeah, I would say, because they're emerging technology, that's actually been one of the biggest challenges. So when we look at legislation in Canada, I mean, it never a lot of it's very old, right? So it never envisioned that there'd be these clean technologies coming up in the market that would they would need to govern and regulate. We have had a lot of challenges with the Fisheries Act, again, just because of that, it never envisioned that it would be regulating an emerging technology. And so, I mean, luckily with that, we did a lot of work with federal and provincial governments, and we have found a path forward that had been an issue in terms of, like the regulatory barriers being created by the legislation. The other one, I would say, is just these projects are small at the moment, right? So we're talking kilowatts, maybe a couple megawatts. And what we found is the, you know, just the regulatory efficiency is not necessarily there. So applying regulation will look at it just as the same scale as any type of project, you know, could be a very large project. So I think what you know, we would ask is that regulators consider the scale of the project and the regulatory processes and requirements should balance that scale of the project, you know, with what the requirements are.

Trevor Freeman 31:34

Yeah. Do you see a world where I'm gonna assume the answer is yes to this, but I'm gonna ask anyway, do you see a world where this is just another option that utilities and energy policy makers have in their toolbox as a way to procure clean energy, that this just becomes one of an item on the menu with solar and wind, et cetera? Are we gonna get to that point? Do you see that happening in the sort of near, medium term future.

Elisa Obermann 32:01

I think we can get to that point. But what it's going to require is that there are more deployments, more demonstrations, and regulators will really need to look at those early projects of exactly that demonstrations, and not treat them as commercial projects. And the reason I say this is because to get costs down so that they can be looked at in comparison to onshore and solar, we need to see a lot more deployment like when you think of a cost curve for any technology, you have to get to that scale and volume before the costs start coming down. It's some time before we get to that point, but it's absolutely possible. It just requires the right supports.

Trevor Freeman 32:38

Got you. On the funding side. We talked about this a little bit earlier, about how you're kind of using existing funding programs. There aren't necessarily dedicated programs for this kind of technology or these projects. Are there other funding sources, like, are you attracting investors into this? Is there, you know, more public money going into this? What's the funding structure around some of these projects?

Elisa Obermann 33:02

Yeah, so, I think to date, a lot of developers have and when I say developers, I mean the technology and project developers. But with marine renewables, sometimes it ends up being one in the same, because technology developers end up being the ones developing their projects. I think a lot of them are looking for two things at this time, so something to cover capital costs. So grants, whatever it might be, and there has, there have been a number of funding programs that the federal government has applied that have been quite useful for that, and then they usually look for something on the back end of the project once it's built. So what I mean by that is feed in tariff, something to help with their return on investment. And that seems to be kind of the right recipe for investment certainty at the moment, the other thing that I think Canada's recently done that's very helpful for this sector are the investment tax credits. And so our hope is actually that those get extended, because right now, where the sector is, and this also comes into play for offshore wind, is that they end, you know, in that 2033 timeline, 2034 I can't remember, whereas a lot of these projects wouldn't be online at that point. And so we're looking for a bit of a longer runway there. And I think tax credits are a very good tool that can help, you know, with attracting investment for these projects.

Trevor Freeman 34:16

So looking ahead, I mean, you've kind of touched on this in a few different spots, but to sum it up, what's next on the horizon for this technology and these projects? Are we expecting kind of innovation on the technological side, or is the focus still on the sort of funding and regulatory side right now? What can we expect for those of us who are going to maybe keep an eye on this moving forward?

Elisa Obermann 34:40

Yeah, it's a bit of both, I will say. So I mentioned that the tidal sector was having some challenges with the Fisheries Act a number of years ago, and that really kind of created a lull in development, but also in investment attraction. As a result of that, federal and provincial governments established a Tidal Task Force to. Look at the exact issues around you know, where the barriers are with the Fisheries Act, and then the outcome of that has been a new path under the Fisheries Act to support projects. And so there are developers that will be going through that new or revised, staged approach, is what they've been calling it. Time will tell, obviously, if that process works, but from what we've heard from developers, it does give them more certainty, because it essentially covers the entire project, rather than going through a device by device by device approach. And so that's on the regulatory side. I think if that goes well, it will give a lot of confidence to private sector and developers that this can move ahead, but it will also ensure that regulators know that they have an approach that is working, but still having those safeguards to ensure that you know they're protecting the environment and safety of communities and others on the technology side. So it's kind of like they go together hand in hand. So I mean, once we get through that process, I think there'll be more deployments, and we'll see the ability to test more technologies improve them. But to date, and where we are with especially with tidal energy, think the technologies are in, you know, they're in further generation. So we're not first generation technology anymore, and they've come a long way, and some of that's been through deployments and demonstration in other countries, Scotland, for example. So what I would envision happening is seeing some of those technologies tested in Canada, and then being able to, you know, deploy more than one and then, you know, multi device development.

Trevor Freeman 36:31

Great. One fine, maybe final question, although I keep thinking of things as we talk here, but you know, obviously this is very focused on coastal regions. You've mentioned, BC and sort of Nova Scotia where you're based. Do you envision, especially on the river side of things? Do you envision this as a technology that can be deployed kind of even in the interior provinces? Like, are we going to see river marine renewables in Saskatchewan, for example, or Ontario, where I'm based? Like, are you having those conversations? Or are we like, we're not quite ready for that yet, because we're still working on the technology piece.

Elisa Obermann 37:03

Yeah, I'm so glad that you asked that, because that's part I actually have missed in some of this. So there have been river current technologies deployed in Manitoba already. So the University of Manitoba has the Canadian hydro kinetic turbine Test Center. I know it's a bit of a mouthful, but they have been working with a number of river current developers. They've had several successful demonstrations. And there are also some companies that are that have been members of ours, that have deployed in other areas of Canada as well. In the past, even in Quebec, there's been some deployments. And so I think when it comes to river, you know, one of the challenges is there's, well, it's not a challenge. There's a huge opportunity there. It's just not very well known. And there are things like the ice, I think people are concerned about it being potentially closer to shore, just like the navigational issues, things like that, fish passage is different than what you'd see in tidal so there hasn't been as much of a focus on that. So it's earlier stage in terms of kind of that some of those environmental and social questions, but the technology is, you know, very close to where you'd see title at this point.

Trevor Freeman 38:12

Got you very cool we have so as our listeners know, I work for Hydro Ottawa, and Hydro Ottawa, parent company, owns the run-of-the-river generation dam here, right in the center of Ottawa, Chaudière Falls, and it's really fascinating. Now, it's not the same technology, of course. It's a it's a run of the river gravity fed dam, but the complexity around so the North American eel is an endangered species that's particularly impacted by dams and the technologies that we've had to put in place for that. It's really fascinating. Just kind of, I'm rambling a bit here, but all the different pieces that come together to make what should be a fairly straightforward thing, like use water to spin turbine, it's so much more complex than that. So I can appreciate that as you branch out into new areas, new technologies or new deployments of that, all those new complexities have to be figured out and worked on. But glad to hear that that's in the future, that that's on the horizon, because I think this is great, and it'd be cool to see more of this.

Elisa Obermann 39:08

Yeah, agreed. We're hoping we're getting there. It's taken time. I think things haven't gone as quickly as we had hoped. But you know, there's been a lot of learnings, lessons learned that have fed into where we are now, and I think just with what we're seeing, you know, with with government support, but also communities getting more excited about it, we'll see some real progress in the coming years.

Trevor Freeman 39:30

Okay, Elisa, we always wrap up our interviews with a series of questions to our guests. Some people love them, some people feel like they're on the hot seat, but I'm going to dive in anyway and fire these at you. So what is a book that you've read recently that you think everyone should read?

Elisa Obermann 39:45

Haven't read this one recently, but it kind of changed my thinking on everything. And I loved it, "Sapiens", I thought was great just with kind of the, you know, the history of humankind, and just made me rethink a lot of the things that. In terms of how society is structured and why we do the things that we do. Thought it was great, and if people haven't read it, I would highly recommend,

Trevor Freeman 40:06

Yes, very cool. That's a great book, and you're not the first one to mention that on the show. That's awesome. So same question. But for a movie or a show.

Elisa Obermann 40:14

There's probably a few that I would recommend, but really, I think the one that struck me the most recently, and I haven't watched a lot of movies recently, so I'll also say that, but just in the past couple years, was "Barbie". I loved it. It actually surprised me that, like, I had this totally different impression of what it was going to be, and just the kind of, you know, the key messages and things that it brought out, I thought were great. Like it was, it was very well done.

Trevor Freeman 40:38

Yeah, absolutely. It was one of those kind of cultural things that which seemed like it was going to be just another movie, and then there was some buzz behind it. And it got to the point where we, like, we did a family outing to go and, like, watch that movie with our kids, who were kind of at about the age where they can start thinking about some of these things. So it was pretty fun.

Elisa Obermann 40:56

Yeah, we did the same. We all wore pink. We really got on the bandwagon. I but it's great because as adults, you know, there were some really important things in it, but then also kids could relate, like it was a fun movie for them. So, yeah, it was good.

Trevor Freeman 41:09

Yeah, absolutely. My kids spent a long time, and still it'll come up singing the I'm Just Ken song that happens around our house often that song comes up, which, you know, wears on you after a while. Okay, so it sounds like you travel a little bit. So if someone offers you a free round trip flight anywhere in the world, where would you go?

Elisa Obermann 41:28

There's lots of places I would like to go, but I think probably Greece is where I would choose to go. I mean, I've been to Europe quite a bit for work and just also, you know, for fun. But my daughter has been saying for a really long time that she wants to go to Greece. She's only 10, so I've also kind of wondered where she got this idea, but I've also always wanted to go. So I think that would be my, my first choice.

Trevor Freeman 41:51

Very cool. I my wife and I honeymooned in Greece. It's a long time ago, but we had had a great time. It's gorgeous.

Elisa Obermann 41:56

Oh, amazing.

Trevor Freeman 41:58

Who is someone that you admire?

Elisa Obermann 41:59

That would probably be one of the tougher ones of these questions. Well, I'll say so generally, when I think about this kind of question, it's like, what are the kind of characteristics or qualities of someone that I would admire? And so I often look at how other women are, you know, conducting themselves, working in business world or in politics or whatnot. And I think what I admire most in some of those women is just the fact that they lift other women up. They're not afraid to be who they are and take a stand on things they really believe in. I think something I also really admire are women that are willing to take risks to build their business, and also in times of you know, where there's challenges or conflicts taking the high road. And so with all that said, you know, when I think about this, and I don't know if this sounds too cliche, but I think Michelle Obama's great, like when she said, 'When they go low, you go high', I just thought that was such an important message. And I actually share that with my daughter all the time when she's having trouble in school. I'm like, think of it this way. So she is a woman that I really admire. I think she's just done some wonderful things for women and just for people in general.

Trevor Freeman 43:08

Yeah, absolutely. And again, you're not the first one to mention that on the show, and I don't think that's because it's cliche. I think it's because you're right, absolutely fascinating person and leader, and just the strength of character is very evident, for sure. So, yeah, great answer. So final question, what's something about the energy sector that you're particularly excited about?

Elisa Obermann 43:29

Well, I would say, I mean, things are moving quite quickly, but also not never quick enough, yeah, and, but I think we have a lot to be excited about. So when I think about when I started my career in the energy sector, we were literally just starting to talk about renewable energy like it was a new thing, and things have evolved quite a bit since then, obviously, but in Atlantic Canada, where I'm based, so I'm in Nova Scotia, one of the things we've seen just in the past number of years has been An incredible evolution to a lot of projects being indigenous owned, indigenous LED. And I just think that's amazing so, you know, and I think that's going to continue. And it just shows, you know, that these communities are taking a lead. They're interested in ensuring that we're using clean energy, and it's also empowering them to, you know, have that ownership be able to provide investment to these projects, but it's been a big change. And so what I'm looking forward to, I guess, is what I'm saying here is that that continues, and we see more indigenous led projects, more indigenous participation in those projects, whether it be ownership, but also we've been actually working with a lot of indigenous businesses and suppliers that can get involved. And I think that will really change the energy sector. Actually, it's a lot different model from what we thought about, you know, few decades ago.

Trevor Freeman 44:49

Yeah, absolutely, I think. And again, it comes up so often on the show, the idea that there's the technological side of energy, but the societal side, and that interaction with the actual. Well stakeholders in local communities and indigenous communities. And you know, the people who are most impacted by this from a usage of energy perspective, but also a production and generation perspective. And of course, the in between, which is the transmission and distribution side of things, that's where the really interesting stories happen, and the opportunities for better collaboration and improving how we do things certainly happen. So I'm totally on the same page as you.

Elisa Obermann 45:25

Yeah, I think at the end, I always think of this like everything in the end is about people so and there's that factor that we we sometimes lose in all of this, but in the end, it comes down to the people who are involved or impacted.

Trevor Freeman 45:38

Absolutely. Elisa, thanks so much for your time. I really appreciate it. It's been great to learn more about this sector, which doesn't have enough attention on it. So happy to kind of have you explain to us and talk us through some of the exciting things that are happening. Really appreciate it.

Elisa Obermann 45:52

Yeah, no. Thank you so much for the opportunity and the time. And like you said, a lot of people don't know about the sector, so I really appreciate the you know, the time spent with you to chat a little more about it. Thank you

Trevor Freeman 46:02

For sure. We'll check back in, maybe in a year or two, and see kind of how, how far things have come.

Elisa Obermann 46:07

Yeah, that'd be great. I'd appreciate that.

Trevor Freeman 46:09

Awesome. Thanks. Elisa, take care.

Elisa Obermann 46:11

Thank you.

Trevor Freeman 46:13

Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the thinkenergy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review, it really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Hydropower is one of the oldest sources of renewable energy, powering Canada's first electric lights in 1881 and providing clean energy to six out of ten homes and businesses today. Ontario's north leads its next chapter. Trevor sums up how new hydro projects with First Nations transform remote communities, reduce diesel reliance, and support reconciliation. With billions invested in refurbishing plants and expanding the grid, it's a story of clean energy, collaboration, and Canada's sustainable future.

Related links

● Electrifying Canada's remote communities with QUEST Canada (thinkenergy episode 143): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/electrifying-canadas-remote-communities-with-quest-canada/

● Watay Power Project: https://www.wataypower.ca/

● Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

● Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

To subscribe using Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinkenergy/id1465129405

To subscribe using Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/show/7wFz7rdR8Gq3f2WOafjxpl

To subscribe on Libsyn:

http://thinkenergy.libsyn.com/

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:07

Welcome to a think energy short hosted by me, Trevor Freeman. This is a bite sized episode designed to be a quick summary of a specific topic or idea related to the world of energy. This is meant to round out our collective understanding of the energy sector, and will complement our normal guest interview episodes. Thanks for joining and happy listening. Hi everyone, and welcome back to think energy. I'm your host, Trevor Freeman, and today we're shifting our lens to the north. Across North America, we are seeing a resurgence of hydro power, and that includes here in Ontario, where I'm located, this province is looking to this long standing generation method to power Canada's growing and energy starved northern communities first. Let's take a quick look back at history. Canada's first electric lights were actually powered by hydro power. Back in 1881 a small hydro electricity plant in Sherbrooke, Quebec lit up the night and sparked a clean energy story that's still unfolding today, from those earliest River power lights to today, where we see more than 200 hydro stations generating over 60% of Canada's electricity and about 90% of our renewable power. Hydro power remains backbone of our clean energy system and powers six out of 10 homes and businesses. It's reliable, it's cost effective, and unlike solar wind, which can be intermittent, water, provides a steady stream of power pretty much 24/7 some plants have even been operating for more than a century. But according to water power Canada, because we've been relying on this source for so long, there is actually a lot of untapped potential that can be realized by refurbishing and modernizing our older facilities, not to mention developing new ones. We could significantly expand clean capacity, which would help us move closer to our net zero goals. As I've said before on the show, we need every tool in the toolbox, and expanding hydro power is one of those tools. So let's have a look at the North American resurgence of hydropower across the continent, there is a renewed focus on this source as a stable, long term solution to rising energy demand. Even the tech sector is taking notice. In July 2025 Google announced a $3 billion deal to secure hydro power from two US facilities in Pennsylvania through Brookfield asset management. It is the largest corporate clean energy agreement of its kind, which is a signal of how essential reliable renewable power has become. In this digital age, we need something to power these giant AI data centers, and these corporations are looking for something that's reliable and clean. The hydropower sites will be upgraded and relicensed under the agreement, and Google also intends to expand the deal into other regions of the US, Midwest and mid Atlantic, where it's investing $25 billion in new data centers. This deal signals a shift in corporate energy procurement, from simply buying renewable energy credits to offset their emissions to directly investing in specific, large scale, long duration infrastructure deals to power businesses. Of course, this definitely raises questions about the implications for how the grid and energy markets may evolve as demand in the tech and business sector continues to change and grow. That's something we'll explore at a different time. While Google's deal is driven by data and growth. Ontario's story is being shaped by geography, reconciliation and regional development. So let's have a look to the north. Like we said we would when electricity grids were first built, many northern and remote communities were left out because connecting them wasn't seen as practical or affordable. I talked about this with Gemma Pinchon from Quest Canada about a year ago on this show. Have a listen if you haven't already. With small populations spread across vast distances, it was considered too costly to run transmission lines that far north. So while the rest of the country was plugged into their provincial grids, many of these communities were left to rely on local diesel generation, a decision that might have made economic sense at the time, but definitely isn't equitable and not great for the environment. Thankfully, we're seeing some movement in this area. New investments and partnerships are changing how energy is produced and shared, and Ontario is turning once again, to our water power routes, but this time, it's doing it differently. This year, the Ontario government announced several new partnerships with First Nations that are changing the way clean energy projects take shape, emphasizing shared ownership, community leadership and lasting local benefits. New hydro developments in the north are being co created with First Nations who've lived alongside these rivers for generations. So let's have a look at some specifics. In July, the province announced plans for two new large scale hydro electric stations in northern Ontario, the Nine Mile rapids project on the Abitibi River and the Grand Rapids project on the Mattagami. Together, these could generate up to 430 megawatts of clean electricity that's enough to power. Nearly half a million homes. This is the province first large scale expansion of hydro electricity facilities in decades. What makes these projects truly historic is who's at the table. The stations will be co developed with the Taykwa Tagamu Nation and the Moose Cree First Nation, marking a shift towards shared ownership and long term community benefit. It's a model of collaboration that intertwines energy expansion with economic reconciliation, and this is just part of a larger effort. Ontario has also committed $4.7 billion to refurbish and expand existing hydro electric facilities across the province, from Northern Ontario to Niagara Cornwall and all the way out east. Together, these upgrades could add another 5000 megawatts of reliable clean power. It's a move that fits squarely within Ontario's long term plan to meet rising demand in the north with reliable low carbon power. The IESO, our system operator, predicts northern Ontario's demand for electricity will increase by 81% by 2050, higher than the provincial average. Of course, generating electricity is only half the story, as we've talked about before. It needs to reach the people in the industries that need it to make that happen, Ontario is working with transmission partners to build 1000s of kilometers of new power lines across the north. A prime example is Watay Power, the largest indigenous led grid connection project in Ontario's history. It's 1800 kilometers of transmission lines will connect more than 18,000 people across 16 remote First Nation communities to the provincial grid for the first time, ending decades of dependence on diesel. These grid expansions are also laying the groundwork for future economic development, especially in the mineral rich Ring of Fire region. The province recently signed a 39 and a half million dollar community partnership agreement with the Wabequie First Nation to support infrastructure early works and an all season road that will unlock access to critical minerals essential for EV batteries and clean technologies. Hopefully, this is a sign that we're seeing a real shift in how Canada views its north, not just as a remote region, but as a cornerstone of the country's future. The federal government is linking energy development, mining and national security in a way that we haven't seen in decades. There's renewed investment in hydro and transmission projects, plans to tap into critical minerals for the clean economy and a growing military infrastructure to reinforce sovereignty in the Arctic. It's all part of a bigger effort to power the north, protect it and ensure the communities who live there share the benefits of its growth. So what does all this mean? Ontario's investments aren't just about electricity. They're about sovereignty, sustainability and self determination. They represent a vision for Canada's north, where the local power generation, indigenous leadership and economic opportunity grow together. Still, there are important questions ahead that we'll all be watching. How will the province balance clean growth with ecological protection? How can partnerships ensure that the benefits of these projects are lasting and equitable for both the province and First Nations leading this work on their own traditional lands? In the end, the real energy transformation isn't just about megawatts. It's also about connection and making sure that we're smart about how we grow and expand our grid and our communities. Thanks for checking in. We'll chat next time. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the think =energy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback, comments or an idea for a show or a guest, you can always reach us at [email protected].

Trevor reconnects with his former professor, Dr. Rupp Carriveau from the University of Windsor, to explore how Southern Ontario's agriculture and energy sectors intersect. From powering greenhouses and managing massive industrial demand to reimagining aging wind farms and testing "atomic agriculture," together they unpack how innovation, AI, and new tech are reshaping Canada's clean energy future. Listen to episode 164 of thinkenery.

Related links

• Dr. Rupp Carriveau on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rupp-carriveau-b4273823/

• Environmental Energy Institute: https://www.environmentalenergyinstitute.com/

• Turbulence and Energy Lab: http://www.turbulenceandenergylab.org/

• Offshore Energy and Storage Society: https://www.osessociety.com/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

To subscribe using Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinkenergy/id1465129405

To subscribe using Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/show/7wFz7rdR8Gq3f2WOafjxpl

To subscribe on Libsyn:

http://thinkenergy.libsyn.com/

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Stay in the know on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HydroOttawa

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---

Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:07

Welcome to thinkenergy, a podcast that dives into the fast, changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts, feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydro ottawa.com, hi everyone, and welcome back. Today's episode brings us back to a few elements of my own personal history. Now you'll have to bear with me for a minute or two while I dive into my past in order to properly set up today's conversation, I grew up in southwestern Ontario, in and just outside the border town of Windsor, Ontario. Now for those of you not familiar with this area, Windsor and its surroundings are the most southern part of Canada. It might surprise you to know that Windsor is at the same latitude as Northern California and Rome, Italy. You can imagine that after growing up in Windsor and then living in various places around the globe, when I finally settled down here in Ottawa, adjusting to the more stereotypical Canadian winters of this northern capital, took a little bit of getting used to Windsor is so far south when you cross the border to its neighboring American city, Detroit, Michigan, you actually travel north. Have a look at a map if this seems to defy logic, but I promise you, it's true. This is the area that I grew up in. It's also where I went to school and got my engineering degree. More on that in a minute. Now, if you've ever driven down to the southwestern end of the 401 going past London and Chatham, you will notice two things. First, it is flat, very flat. You will not see a meaningful Hill anywhere in sight. I often joke with people that I used to toboggan when we did get any meaningful snow off of highway overpasses, because that was the only hill we could find. I was only partly joking, and I have indeed tobogganed off of said overpasses in my young and foolish days. But that is a story for another time. That brings us to the second thing you'll see, which is wind turbines. A lot of wind turbines. They are seemingly everywhere, stretching as far as you can see, southwestern Ontario is a hotbed of wind energy generation. Finally, a hint at why I'm going on about this part of the province on an energy podcast. But before we get into it, there's one other thing to touch on, and that is the fact that this area is also home to a large number of greenhouses growing produce year-round, as well as manufacturing. Windsor and its surrounding area is the automotive capital of Canada, with a number of plants from major car companies, as well as a supporting ecosystem of parts manufacturers. Incidentally, that's where I started my career, working as an environmental engineer for one of the automakers, and many members of my family have also worked or still work in that industry. The reason I bring up greenhouses in the auto industry is because they have some very high energy demand profiles, and that is how we get for me going on nostalgically about the area I grew up in, to our conversation today, I recently caught up with one of my engineering professors, Dr Rupp Carriveau, about the work that he and his colleagues have been doing that ties all of this together. And I thought it would be great to have him on the show to talk about that. Dr. Carriveau is the director of the Environmental Energy Institute and co-director of the Turbulence and Energy Lab and the CO lead of AGUwin at the University of Windsor. Back in the day, he was my fluid dynamics professor. But today, he balances his teaching duties with research into energy systems futures and advanced agricultural systems. He is a founder of the offshore energy and storage society, a recipient of the University Scholar Award, and has been named to Canada's clean 50 for his contributions to clean capitalism. Dr Rupp Carriveau, welcome to the show.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 03:59

Trevor, great to be here. Thanks.

Trevor Freeman 04:01

Yeah. So, Rupp, the last time we chatted, well, so you and I chatted a couple weeks ago, but before that, the last time that you and I interacted, I was in third year university. You were my fluid dynamics Prof. So, in addition to your professorial duties, you're now the director of the environmental Energy Institute at the University of Windsor. So, there's two questions around that. First off, how did you end up going from my fluid dynamics prof a number of years ago, probably close to 20 years ago now, to running this institute? And tell us a little bit about what the Institute does.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 04:40

Sure. Though. So, thanks. Yeah, and very memorable Trevor, because I, you know, I remember you well. And, yeah, that was, that was a very nice class that we had. I remember, well, I remember your colleagues too.

Trevor Freeman 04:54

If there's one thing I do, well, it's, it's be memorable, and you can take that however you want.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 04:58

That is, that is. Something to be said for that. Yeah, thanks for that question. So I should point out that in addition to EEI, I am a co-director in the Turbulence and Energy Lab, which is really where all of the EEI initiatives have started from, that's a lab that I co supervise with Dr David Ting in mechanical engineering and the nuts and bolts, the very serious engineering side of things, comes out of the Turbulence and Energy Lab. EEI kind of came about to handle topics that were, frankly speaking, less interesting to Dr Ting. So, things that push more, a little bit more into policy wider systems looks at things as opposed to, you know, pure thermodynamics and energy efficiency type pursuits, which underpin a lot of the EEI policy pieces, but are sort of beyond the scope of what turbulence and energy lab does. So those two things, and then more recently, actually, I'm co lead on, AGUwin, which is like a center of excellence, emerging Center of Excellence at the University of Windsor. So, Agriculture U Windsor is a group of about 40 professors that do work in agriculture in some shape or form. And we've, we've, we've taken to organizing that movement in seeking sort of group funding proposals, developing curriculum and organized sort of platforms to help industry in agriculture. And it's, it's really taking off, which I'm really excited about my extremely hard-working colleagues and CO lead, Isabel Barrett-Ng, she in particular, has been really driving a lot of really cool initiatives ahead and all the people that work with us. So, yeah, lots, lots happening at the University since I saw you last. But you know, time has a way of helping with that, people find ways to find efficiencies and get to do and build on, build on, hopefully incremental progress.

Trevor Freeman 07:08

Yeah, very cool. And you're teasing a few of the areas our conversation is going to go today, that sort of intersection between agriculture and obviously, this is an energy podcast, and so how does agriculture and the way we're moving in with agriculture impacts energy and vice versa. So, we're definitely going to get to that in a minute, I think, for our listeners that are not familiar with Southern Ontario, and I haven't talked about Southern Ontario on the podcast a lot, but people that know me know I will gladly talk about what goes on in the very southern part of our country. It's where I grew up. Help us paint a picture of what Southern Ontario is like. So, in the context of energy, what makes this area of Ontario unique?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 07:50

Well, it's that's a really good question, and I'm glad you phrased it that way, because I think it gets taken for granted. And also, folks, folks don't know energy isn't in the headlines every day, and if it is, it's not a headline that everybody pays attention to. But the southwestern Ontario region, if you take the 401 west of London, you'll start to see a high concentration of wind. So, there's a significant wind corridor in the region, and that's because it's very flat, so the whole area used to be a lake bed, and so we have very fertile agricultural lands as a result of that. And we also have very few obstacles to fetch, which is a huge aspect of how wind carries over the lakes, and is, you know, not, not obstructed. And so it's like you have offshore resources onshore, which is completely ideal. Also, we have, as it may be, we have massive natural gas resources in the area, in sort of the subterranean space of Devonian reefs for natural gas storage. We have natural gas generation facilities down around the Windsor area that help with provincial peaking and there is some solar in the region, because it is the Leamington Kingsville area is referred to as the sun parlor of Ontario. And as a result, we have a lot of under glass agriculture there, which benefits, obviously, directly from solar resources. And then we have solar photovoltaic that takes advantage of that sun as well. So there's, there's a lot happening here energy wise.

Trevor Freeman 09:38

Yeah, and there's a lot on the demand side of things as well. So, you mentioned the greenhouses, which are an up and coming, you know, source of demand draws on our grid. There's also a big manufacturing base. Talk a little bit about the manufacturing base in the area. Yeah, yeah. And that's that gets into my next question is talking about some of the specific, unique energy needs of greenhouses. I think on the manufacturing side, you know, you mentioned the auto industry and the parts industry that supports it, you're seeing more. There's a battery plant being built now I think that, I think people have a sense of that, but greenhouses are this thing that I think a lot of folks don't think about. So, you talked about the magnitude of the load, the lighting side of things. What else is this like, a 24/7 load? Is this sector growing like? Tell us a little bit about, you know where things are going with greenhouses?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 09:53

Yeah, thanks. So, yeah, I was, I was thinking about generation and, yeah, demand is. Significant we have. You know, Windsor has laid claim to Canada's automotive capital, and while I'm biased, I'd like to think it still is. And so we have significant manufacturing around the automotive industry, either automotive OEMs or tier one parts makers that have significant draws. We have Stellantis. Every minivan comes out of this area has come out of this area. The electric Dodge Charger comes out of this area. But there are engine plants for Ford, but they're also now, you know, sort of next generation transport technologies. You've talking about battery manufacturing. So, there's an enormous LG consortium with Stellantis here that's doing battery manufacturing. And so, these are huge loads that that add to existing and growing loads in the greenhouse space, which, again, I'll just mention it now, is something that isn't well understood. And we did a, we did a study for the province a couple years, three, four years ago. Now, I think grid Innovation Fund project that looked at sort of really getting into granular detailing of the loads that come with a lit greenhouse. A lot of people don't appreciate that a lit greenhouse, when switched on, depending on the lighting technology, depending on how it's used, can be like a 50-megawatt load, which is a significant load. And just imagine that's one so they can come on quickly, and they are non-trivial, significant loads. And so, this is something that we looked at trying to develop distributed energy resource sort of solutions for, because, simply speaking, you can't put up a new transmission line overnight, and we don't want to economically constrain the growth of the sector. Sure, yeah. I mean, it's, it's not a simple thing to characterize, because what you can take away from this is that these greenhouse developers are business dynamos, and frankly speaking, many of them do very well, because they're very good at what they do, and with the resources they have, they can largely do what they want. And if, if the infrastructure isn't there, they will build it so. So, you'll have folks that are operating off the grid, essentially not off the gas grid, of course, but they're using gas for cogeneration purposes, to produce heat for their crops, but also the electricity for their lights. So that is one aspect of it that further complicates how to figure out what these loads on the grid will be. But for the most part, of course, the grid provides quite clean and quite affordable electricity in the province, and you know where they can they want to be able to connect to the grid. Now, lights are designed to extend the growing day and extend the growing season as well. So, in terms of when they're switched on and how they're switched on, that is highly variable, and that is also something that is, I would say, in development, folks are looking at different ways to use intermittent lighting to be conscious of when peaking happens. It is dispatchable in a way, in that some growers are able to turn their lights off to avoid, you know, peaking charges. But again, there's a lot to manage. And, and it's, it's very complicated, both on the grid side and, and for the greenhouse grower.

Trevor Freeman 14:38

Yeah, so you mentioned natural gas for cogen for heating as well. So, as we look to decarbonize all different aspects of the sector, we talk often on the show of what are the specific areas where decarbonization might be challenging. Is, is greenhouses one of those areas? And, and what are the options available for heating these spaces? Like, is it realistic to think that there's an electric solution here, or what? What's happening in that sector related to decarbonization?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 15:10

Again, you've hit on a real sort of hot button issue for the for the sector, the trouble with natural gas is that it's spectacular. Oh, it's storable. It's dispatchable. It's a triple threat for greenhouses in the best way possible, because you can make your heat, you can make your electricity, and the plants crave CO2, and that comes out of the flue gas on the other side of the combustion reaction. So, you know, when you swing in there and you say, Oh, I've got this great new solution. It's called hydrogen. We'll burn hydrogen and we won't have these nasty CO2 release. And they're like, Okay, who's going to replace my CO2? So, it's a difficult fuel to displace. Now, admittedly, people understand that, you know, that's where we really need to go. And is, is electric? You know, electrification the path. So, people talk about, people talk about heat pumps, people talk about electric boilers. And then, as I mentioned, people talked about, you know, we've, we've also looked at the idea of blending hydrogen into a natural gas feed for existing infrastructure to, you know, because, because not all of the CO2, that is, you know, released is, is taken down by the plants. And so could you get to a magic blend where it's just the amount of CO2 that you need is what goes into the other side, and then there's nothing left after the plants take what they need. So, there's a lot of things that are being looked at. It is again, a challenging space to operate in, because it's highly competitive. Getting really granular. Data is very sensitive, because this, this, this is a, you know, it's a game of margins, and it's in its high stakes production. So to get in there and sort of be in the way is, is difficult. So, this work is being done. We're participating in a lot of this work. We just finished a study for the province, a Hydrogen Innovation Fund study on looking at the integration of hydrogen into the greenhouse space. And it was, it was pretty revelatory for us.

Trevor Freeman 17:36

So is the exhaust from burning natural gas on site. Does that get recycled through the greenhouse and therefore captured to some degree? Do we know how much you kind of hinted at finding out that sweet spot? Do we know how much of that gets captured?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 17:53

Yeah, so the short answer is yes. So, they have the cogen engines have scrubbers on them, and these, these machines are spectacularly capable of being tuned the combustion and the professionals that operate them at the greenhouse facilities are artists, and that they can get the sort of combustion profile a certain way, and so that that flue gas will go into the greenhouse, but to know exactly how much is being taken down, that is an area of active research, and we don't, we don't know that answer yet. There are people that are looking at it, and you can imagine it's kind of a provocative number for the sector. So, they're being very careful about how they do it.

Trevor Freeman 18:36

I'm sure, I'm sure. Okay, let's, let's park that just for a minute here, and jump back to something you mentioned earlier. You talked about one how flat Southern Ontario is, and it took me leaving, leaving the county before I really knew what skiing and tobogganing and everything else was. So, there's a lot of wind power generation. And for anyone listening, yeah, as rip mentioned, if you ever drive down the 401 going towards Windsor, you'll just start to see these massive wind turbines kind of everywhere you look. So, help us understand how these turbines, you know, you look out over a field and you see, you know, 2030, of them more in your line of sight. How do they connect to our provincial grid? How do the contracts work? Like, who gets that power? Give us a little bit of a sense of how that works.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 19:28

For sure. Yeah, well, so what most people don't realize, and again, it's not something that's talked about, and if it is, I don't know people are necessarily paying attention to it, but, but you know the comment I'll get from relatives we talked about Thanksgiving. So, you know people, because they know I'm a wind person, they'll be like, 'Hey, I was driving down the road and I saw they weren't spinning with, what's going on? Are they broken or what?' Well, you know, because we, we've got some pro wind and some non pro wind folks in the in the family, so it's an exciting time for me. But you know, and I mentioned that the greenhouses I'm working with are often starved for utility supply. And they said, well, how can that be? The turbines are right there. They're sharing the same space, right? And most people don't realize that. Really, I would say 95% of the wind in our corridor is put on a transmission line and sent up to, effectively, to Toronto, to be distributed throughout the province, which is great, but it's not really a local asset. And that was sort of what inspired us when we saw these two sorts of juxtaposed. We thought maybe you could turn these assets into something that acted as really a new type of distributed energy resource, and that you've got a transmission connected asset that's currently under contract, but if that contract could be modified, then the fiscal connections could potentially be modified so you could have local distribution, let's say at a time of maybe at a time of transmission curtailment, maybe under different conditions. So again, looking into the physical plausibility of it was part of our study, and then doing some sort of economic investigation of how that would work, having a nearly 20-year-old asset all of a sudden springing into a new role in a new life, where it continues to perform transmission duties for the province at large, but it also serves local needs in the production, let's say, of hydrogen through an electrolyzer, or just plain electrons turning lights on. That is something that isn't possible yet. Regulatory reasons exist for that that would require some, some significant changes. But it was a really interesting exercise to go through to investigate how that could happen.

Trevor Freeman 22:08

Yeah, so there's just trying to understand how this work. There's someone who owns these turbines. Some conglomerate somewhere, you know, Canadian, not Canadian, who knows. They contract with the Independent Electricity System Operator who operates the grid in the province. And they basically say, yeah, well, look, we'll provide you with X amount of power on some contract, and when ISO needs it, they call on it. How long do those contracts last? Is that a 10-year contract? A 20-year contract?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 22:35

So, they are in Ontario. The ones that I'm familiar with for 20 years. So it's possible there are others. I know. I have a there's a farm that operates in PEI that has a nice 30 year PPA. So the longer you can get, the better. Yeah, and these, these power purchase agreements are, are wonderful for developers, because they're known entities, doing the math on your finances is really straightforward with these contracts. And frankly speaking, when you had a sector that needed to be brought up from nothing, they were very necessary. They were very necessary. And but those contracts, and they're and they're locked down, as much as we try to, you know, persuade the province to get crazy, to amuse us with these new, newfangled ways of of connecting to people, commerce wise, through energy, they are not interested so far, at least in and they're like, let's finish these out, and then we can talk your crazy ideas, you know, and so, but that's we're getting glare, because I would say many, many, many farms in the province will be coming up on the sun setting end of Their power purchase agreements in the coming five, six years.

Trevor Freeman 24:03

Yeah, yeah. Which brings me to my next point, of the assets themselves, the actual physical turbine, I assume last longer than 20 years. You're going to build one of these things. You know, 20 years is not its end of life. So what are the options available today? You talked about regulatory barriers. We talk about regulatory barriers on this show often, what are, what are the options today for a wind farm that is at its end of contract? Does it look at re contracting? Can it kind of direct source to someone else? Like, what are the options available for an owner?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 24:40

Yeah, well, to me, it's an exciting time, because it could be work for us. We get excited about this. I think it could be a source of anxiety for owners, because there's nothing better than that long term contract. So many of them will try to apply for things like a medium, a new medium term length contract from the. Province, like an MT two, I think they're called. There are other contract types that are possible, but there'll be, it'll be a highly competitive landscape for those, and the in the province won't be able to give everyone one of these contracts. So some of these, some of these operators, will likely have to look at other options which may be going into the spot market, potentially, you know, getting into the capacity game by getting a battery on site and firming up their ability to provide power when necessary or provide capacity. And then there's a there isn't a relatively recent regulatory development in the around the middle of July, the province said, you know, if you're a non emitting generator and you're not under contract, you could provide virtual power someone else who might need it, if they're looking if they're a class, a customer that's trying to avoid peak charges. You know, rather than that class a customer buys a battery behind the meter and physically reduce their peaks. They could potentially virtually reduce their peaks by setting up a virtual power purchase agreement with another supplier. So these, these off contract spinning assets could have an opportunity to get into this game of peak relief. Which, which could be very lucrative. Because, based on last year's provincial global adjustment charges at large, you're looking at being paid something on the order of about $72,000 a megawatt hour for the, for the for the for the megawatt hours in question, which, which, of course, you know, try to get as many as you can. .

Trevor Freeman 26:31

Yeah. So there's a couple of things there. Bear with me while I connect a few dots for our listeners. So on different shows, we talk about different things. Global adjustment is one of them. And we've been talking here about these long term contracts. Global adjustment, as you might remember from previous conversations, is one of those mechanisms that bridges the gap between the spot market price, you know, the actual commodity cost of electricity that's out there, and some of the built-in cost to run the system, which includes these long term contracts. So there's a there's a fixed cost to run the system, global adjustment helps bridge that gap. The next concept here that is important to remember is this class, a strategy where the largest the largest customers, electricity customers in the province, have the opportunity to adjust how they are build global adjustment based on their contribution to the most intensive demand peaks in the province over the course of a year. So during a really high demand period, when everybody needs electricity, if they can reduce their demand, there's significant savings. And so what you're saying is there's this new this new ability for kind of a virtual connection, where, if I'm a big facility that has a high demand, and I contract with a generator, like a wind turbine that's not in contract anymore, I can say, hey, it's a peak time now I need to use some of your capacity to offset, you know, some of my demand, and there's those significant savings there. So you're absolutely right. That's a new thing in the province. We haven't had that ability up until just recently. So super fascinating, and that kind of connects our two topics today, that the large demand facilities in southern Ontario and these these generators that are potentially nearing the end of their contract and looking for what else might happen. So are you guys navigating that conversation between the greenhouses or the manufacturers and the generators?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 28:49

I'm so glad you asked. And here comes, here comes a shameless plug. Yeah? So yes. So there's a spin off company from the turbulence and Energy Lab, and it's called jailbreak labs. And jailbreak labs really represents sort of the space that is more commercial than research, but it also was sort of spurned, spurred from research. So jailbreak Labs has developed a registry, and we've been providing some webinars as well. So this, again, this is a company that that is essentially run by students, that this registry allows generators and consumers to ultimately find each other so that, so that these kinds of connections can be made. Because, as you may well imagine, there is no guarantee that the wind will be blowing at the time that you need it so, so and your load may be such that you need a different type of generation profile. So it needs to be profiling on the generation side. There needs to be profiling on the customer side. Yeah, and, you know, we've been doing this on our own for years. It was the time was right for us to sort of step in and say, because we were following this, we were real fanboys of this, of this reg, even before it came into play. And we kept bugging, you know, OEB for meetings and ISO and they, begrudgingly, to their credit, would chat with us about it, and then the next thing we know, it's announced that it's that it's happening. Was very exciting. So, so, yes, so we're really interested in seeing this happen, because it seems like such a unique, we're thrilled, because we're always interested in this sort of Second Life for assets that already have been depreciated and they're clean energy assets. Let's get everything we can out of them and to have this dynamic opportunity for them, and that will help Class A customers too hard for us to ignore.

Trevor Freeman 30:56

And you mentioned the last time we chatted about building a tool that helps evaluate and kind of injecting a little bit of AI decision making into this. Talk to us about that tool a little bit.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 31:08

Yeah. So we have a, we have a tool called quantract which is basically playing on the idea of quantifying all the risk and opportunity in in a contract. So it's really a contract visualization tool. Another way to think of it as a real time Net Present Value tool that allows renewable energy stakeholders to really, evaluate the value of their investment by not only understanding the physical life left in an asset. Let's say that a wind farm that's, you know, at 20 years and it looks like we may need to replace some blades. Do we just walk away and say, look at it. We had a good run contracts over, you know, we made some money. Let's sell the assets as they are. Or do we say, you know, I'm looking into this vppa game, and we could do okay here, but I'm not exactly sure how that's going to work and when. And so this, this tool that we've developed, will do things like will first of all identify all risk factors, and risk includes opportunities and then we'll profile them, and then builds them into basically what is more or less a glorified discounted cash flow model. So it is a way of measuring the potential value of investment in the AI space. I mean, the AI piece of it is that we have developed agents that will actually identify other things that are less, less sort of noticeable to people. In fact, this regulatory change is one of the things that our AI agents would have been looking for. Okay, now it pre it predated our tool going online, so we didn't see it, but it's the kind of thing that we'd be looking for. So the agents look for news, they look for changes online, and then, and then what happens is, they got brought, they get brought into a profiler. The profiler then determines the probability of or makes an estimate of the probability that this risk will occur. IE, a regulatory change will happen. IE, battery plant will come to town at a certain time. IE, a Costco facility will come in. Then we'll determine the potential magnitude. So there'll be uncertainty in the occurrence, there'll be uncertainty in the magnitude, and there'll be uncertainty in the timing. So we have basically statistical distribution functions for each one of those things, the likelihood of it happening, the magnitude and the timing. And so those are all modeled in so that people can push a button and, say, with this level of certainty your investment would be, would be worth this much. And that's dynamic. It's in real time. So it's changing constantly. It's being updated constantly. And so no so that that is something that goes in, and one of these virtual power purchase agreements would be one of the types of things that would go into this sort of investment timeline?

Trevor Freeman 34:22

Yeah, so it's giving these owners of these assets better data to make a decision about what comes next, as you said, and as we're talking I'm kind of doing the math here. If these are typically 20 year contracts, that's bringing us back to, you know, the mid, early, 2000s when we were really pushing to get off coal. So a lot of these assets probably started in and around that time. So you've probably got a whole bunch of customers, for lack of a better term, ready to start making decisions in the next you know, half a decade or so of what do I do with my. Sets. Have you seen this? Has it been used in the real world yet? Or is, are you getting close to that? Like, where are you at in development?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 35:07

Yeah, it actually started. It's funny. It started a little a little bit even before this craze. A couple years ago, we had, we had a manufacturer in our county come to us with, they had a great interest in, in just, just they were trying to be proactive about avoiding carbon tax and so, and they wanted to develop a new generation technology close to their facility. And so we used it there since that time. Yeah, so, so it was field proven that was a still a research contract, because they were the technology that they were interested in was, was, was not off the shelf. But since that time, we got a chance, because we represent Canada in the International Energy Agency, task 43 on wind energy digitalization. And so one of the mandates there was to develop a robust and transparent tools for investment decision support using digital twins. And we had a German partner in Fraunhofer Institute that had developed nice digital twin that would provide us remaining useful life values for things like blades, you know, towers, foundations, etc, and those are, again, those are all costs that just plug into our but they did. They didn't have a framework of how to work that into an investment decision other than, you know, you may have to replace this in three years. Okay, well, that's good to know, but we need the whole picture to make that decision, and that's sort of what we were trying to bring so the short answer is, yes, we're getting a lot of interest now, which is thrilling for us, but it's, I'll be honest with you, it's not, it's not simple, like, you know, I I've talked about it a bunch of times, so I'm pretty good at talking about it, but, but the doing it is still, it's computationally intensive and in the end, it's still an estimate. It's a, it's a, it's a calculated, quantified estimate, but it's an estimate. I think what we like about it is it's better than saying, Well, I have a hunch that it's going to go this way, but we could get beat by the hunches too. Yeah, totally, right. So, so, you know, I'm not trying to sell people things that, like I we have to be transparent about it. It's still probability.

Trevor Freeman 37:35

Well, I think if there's, if there's one thing that is very apparent, as we are well into this energy transition process that we talk about all the time here on the show. It's that the pace of change is is one of the things that's like no other time we are we are seeing things change, and that means both our demand is growing, our need to identify solutions is growing the way that we need to build out the grid and utilize the ers and utilize all these different solutions is growing at a rate that we haven't seen before, and therefore uncertainty goes up. And so to your point, yeah, we need help to make these decisions. We need better ways of doing it than just, as you say, having a hunch. That doesn't mean it's foolproof. It doesn't mean it's a guarantee.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 38:27

Nope, it is not a guarantee.

Trevor Freeman 38:30

Very cool. So Rupp, this is a great conversation. It's really fascinating to talk about to me, two areas of the energy sector that aren't really understood that well. I think the agriculture side of things, not a lot of people think about that as a major demand source. But also wind, I think we talk about solar a lot. It's a little bit more ubiquitous. People's neighbors have solar on their roofs. But wind is this unless you drive through Southern Ontario or other parts of the province where there's a lot of wind, you don't see it a lot. So it's fascinating to kind of help understand where these sectors are going. Is there anything else that the Institute is working on that that's worth chatting about here, or is what we've talked about, you know, kind of filling your day, in your students days?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 39:15

Well, actually there is something we haven't talked about the nuclear option. Literally, literally the nuclear literally the nuclear option. Yeah, so we've been really thrilled to have a growing relationship with Canadian Nuclear Laboratories, which is much closer to you than it is to me. And specifically in the connection of small modular reactors to meet these growing agricultural loads. So I have a science colleague at the University of Windsor, Dr drew Marquart, who was all hot and bothered about these s. Mrs. And he's like, we should drop one of these SMRs in Leamington. Then I this, this part I really enjoyed, because it's obviously so he came from Oak Ridge National Laboratories in the States, and he's and he's been at CNL as well. So he's fully indoctrinated into the nuclear space. But it just didn't occur to him that that would be provocative or controversial at all, that there wouldn't be some social he, you know, he's like, we can do the math. And I said, Oh yeah, yeah, we can do the math. But I'm like, I think you're missing something. I think you're missing something, right? So, but so it's, it's a super fascinating topic, and we're trying to connect, physically connect. So just before the weekend, I was in the turbulence and Energy Lab, and we were trying to commission what we believe is North America's first we're calling it a model synthetic, small modular reactor, synthetic being the key word, and that it's non nuclear, okay? And so it's non nuclear. What it what it is really and if I'm going to de glamorize it for a second, it's a mini steam thermal power plant, which doesn't embody every SMR design, but many SMRs are designed around this sort of where you've got a nuclear reaction that provides the heat, and then after that, it's kind of a steam thermal power plant. Our interest is in this physical little plant being connected to small electrolyzer, being connected to small thermal battery, being connected to a lab scale electric battery and being connected to a lab scale fully automated inlet, cucumber, small cucumber, greenhouse, mini cubes greenhouse, all this in our lab. The exciting thing around this is, you know, I I've said that I think nuclear technology needs to get out from behind the walls of nuclear facilities for people to start to appreciate it, and by that, to start doing that, you have to take the nuclear part out, which, to me, is not necessarily a deal breaker in terms of these dynamic issues that we want to solve. You know, because nukes have traditionally been said, Well, you know they're not that. You know, you can't just ramp them up and down, and that's true, you know, and small modular reactors are supposed to be considerably more nimble, but there's still lots of challenges that have to be solved in terms of having how it is an asset that is provides copious energy, but does so maybe not, not as dynamic, certainly, as a gas turbine. That how does it? How do you make it nimble, right? How do you partner it up with the right complimentary other grid assets to take advantage of what it does so well, which is crank out great amounts of heat and electricity so, so effortlessly, right? And so that's, that's sort of what we're trying to do, and connecting it to what we're calling atomic agriculture. I don't know that's a good name or not. I like it, but, but, but, yeah, so that that's another thing that we're that we're flirting with right now. We're working on. We've done a few. We've had a few contracts with Canadian Nuclear Laboratories to get us this far. We did everything computationally. We're continuing to do computational studies with them. They develop their own hybrid energy systems, optimizer software, HISO, which we use, and we are now trying to put it into sort of the hardware space. So again, just the idea that physically looking at the inertia of spinning up a turbine, the little gap, the little sort of steam powered turbine that we have in the lab that's run by an electric boiler. But our hope is to, ultimately, we're going to get the electric boiler to be mimicking the sort of reaction heating dynamics of a true reactor. So by, but through electrical control. So we'll imitate that by having sort of data from nuclear reactions, and then we'll sort of get an electrical signal analog so that we can do that and basically have a non nuclear model, small modular reactor in the lab.

Trevor Freeman 44:14

Very cool, very neat. Well, Rupp, this has been a great conversation. I really appreciate it. We do always end our interviews with a series of questions here, so I'm going to jump right into those. What's a book that you've read that you think everyone should read?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 44:31

I would say any of the Babysitters Club. That's as high as I get in the literary hierarchy. I'm barely literate so and I thoroughly enjoyed reading those books with my daughters that they were great. So I recommend any, any of the Babysitters Club titles. I mean that completely seriously, I that was the peak of my that are dog man, yeah,

Trevor Freeman 44:56

I'm about six months removed from what i. Was about an 18 month run where that's, that's all I read with my youngest kiddo. So they've, they've just moved on to a few other things. But yes, I've been steeped in the Babysitter's Club very recently.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 45:11

So good. So, you know, absolutely.

Trevor Freeman 45:14

So same question, but for a movie or a show, what's something that you recommend?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 45:17

Everyone thrilled with that question. If you're looking for a good, good true story. I've always been romantically obsessed with the ghost in the darkness, the true story of, I guess, a civil engineer trying to solve a problem of man eating lions and Tsavo. That's a, that's a, that's a tremendous movie with Val Kilmer and Michael Douglas. Yeah, that's good then, and I think for something a little more light hearted and fun, a big fan of the way, way back and youth and revolt, nice.

Trevor Freeman 46:03

If someone offered you a free round trip flight anywhere in the world, where would you go?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 46:05

I don't really like flying, I got to be honest. But if, if I was forced onto the plane, I think, I think I go to Japan. Nice. Have you been before? No, I haven't. I'd like to go. Okay, cool. You're not the first guest that has said that someone else was very That's understandable. Yeah, who is someone that you admire? I would say truly selfless people that help people when no one's looking and when it's not being tabulated for likes those people are who I aspire to be more like nice.

Trevor Freeman 46:47

And last question, what's something about the energy sector or its future that you're really excited about?

Dr Rupp Carriveau 46:53

I think maybe power to the people I really like, the movement of distributed energy resources. I'm sure there's a limit to it, but I think, I think if we have more responsibility for our own power production, and again, I can see there are limits where it's probably, you know, there's, there's a point where it's too much. I'm all for, for major centralized coordination and the security in the reliability that goes with that. But I think a little bit more on the distributed side would be nice, because I think people would understand energy better. They would they would own it more, and I think our grid would probably increase in its resiliency.

Trevor Freeman 47:37

Yeah, that's definitely something that no matter the topic, it seems, is a part of almost every conversation I have here on the show. It works its way in, and I think that's indicative of the fundamental role that decentralizing our energy production and storage is is already playing and is going to play in the years to come as we kind of tackle this energy transition drove this has been a really great conversation. I appreciate you taking the time to talk to us, and that's great to catch up. Great to chat with you again.

Dr Rupp Carriveau 48:11

Total privilege for me. Trevor, I really appreciate it. Outstanding job.

Trevor Freeman 48:15

Thanks for having me. Yeah, great to chat. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the thinkenergy podcast, don't forget to subscribe. Wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Rooftop solar. Backup batteries. Smart EV chargers. Distributed energy resources (DERs) are changing the way electricity is generated, managed, and used in Ontario. In this thinkenergy short, Trevor Freeman breaks down how DERs can reduce your carbon footprint, provide backup power during outages, and help you manage your energy costs. Listen in for how net metering, load displacement, and evolving tech partnerships are reshaping the future of the grid and giving you more control over your energy.

Related links

• Breaking down Distributed Energy Resources, with Hydro Ottawa's Trevor Freeman (thinkenergy episode 146): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/breaking-down-distributed-energy-resources-with-hydro-ottawas-trevor-freeman/

• Consumer impact: revisiting grid modernization with Capgemini Canada (thinkenergy episode 162): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/consumer-impact-revisiting-grid-modernization-with-capgemini-canada/

• Save on Energy programs: https://saveonenergy.ca/en/For-Business-and-Industry/Programs-and-incentives/Retrofit-Program

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

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Transcript:

Welcome to a think energy short hosted by me, Trevor Freeman. This is a bite sized episode designed to be a quick summary of a specific topic or idea related to the world of energy. This is meant to round out our collective understanding of the energy sector, and will complement our normal guest interview episodes. Thanks for joining and happy listening. Hi everyone, and welcome back. Today on think energy, I'm going to talk about distributed energy resources, or DERs. Now, if you've been listening to the show for a long time or even a short time, you will have heard us talk about DERs many times before, and for good reason. DERs are an important and growing part of our energy lives. About a year ago, I did an episode diving into what DERs are, and I encourage you to go back and listen to that one. But today I thought I do a quick refresh and talk about some of the most common ways that DERs are used. So, let's dive right in. First the refresh. DERs or distributed energy resources, are simply pieces of equipment that can generate or store power, generally on the smaller scale size of things, and spread throughout the grid. So, we're not talking about large scale, centralized generation plants here, but that small to medium scale, kind of think rooftop solar or batteries that are sized for home or facility use. And generally, when we're talking about DERs, we're focused on renewable technology like solar panels or batteries, and in some cases, you know, smaller wind turbines. For the most part on this show, that's what we're focused on. However, there are sort of non-renewable DERs as well, and we'll actually touch on that a little bit later. So, let's dive into what some of the reasons are why someone would want a der there's a couple of different reasons. The first is for backup during an outage. So, using solar panels, especially if paired with a battery, can give you some backup if there's an outage from the grid, whether that's a storm or an accident or something like that, that backup power can be focused on your key devices or systems or appliances, or if your storage is big enough, or your system is big enough, it may be used to power your whole home for a period of Time. Of course, if you're using one of those nonrenewable sources that I mentioned, like a fossil fuel power generator, for example, then your backup supply can last longer, really, as long as you've got fuel, but it's not clean, so you will be producing carbon emissions. One emerging technology that we'll likely see more of in the future is using an electric vehicle for this purpose. So, while there's only a few different models that allow this right now, the Ford f1 50 is one of them, and there are some safety and regulatory considerations before you go ahead and do this, we can expect to see more of this in the future as the technology advances and it becomes a bit more widespread. Another reason for DERs is financial. Installing a der can actually help you save money every month, whether that's just by reducing what you consume from the grid or by pushing back unused generation to the grid for credits. And I'll touch on this a little bit more shortly. Finally, if we're talking about those renewable DERs, they produce clean energy. So that's carbon, free emissions, free energy. And if you are concerned about your carbon footprint, you're trying to decarbonize and reduce the amount of emissions that you cause. DERs, renewable DERs are a great way to do that. You can lower your carbon footprint by reducing how much you draw from the electricity grid and any carbon emissions that are associated with that. Okay, so let's go back to the financial use case for a minute and talk about the different ways that that's possible. I'll be speaking about the Ontario context here. So, if you're listening from outside of Ontario, you'll have to do a little bit of your own research to figure out what options exist where you live. One option to set up your der for financial reasons is net metering, which I kind of alluded to earlier. Net metering is a setup for renewable generation sources only that allows you to use as much of your generation as you can to power your home when you're using it, and then push back whatever you don't use to the grid. Whatever you push back to the grid, will give you a credit on your bill that you can use to offset the electricity charge portion of your bill. Another option would be load displacement. With this arrangement, you can generate electricity exclusively for your own use, so you will reduce the amount that you pull from the grid, and that will save you money, but you don't push anything back to the grid, and therefore you don't earn any credits. And finally, there are standalone generation setups. This arrangement involves pushing all of your generation back to the grid for some agreed upon compensation. While there used to be programs for small scale standalone generation so you might be familiar and on. Ontario with the fit or the MicroFit programs that existed about 10 years ago. These programs are closed today, and generally only large generators have a standalone arrangement. Now, like any technology, DERs are not free to install. In fact, they can be quite pricey in some cases, but because they provide benefit to the grid. There are incentive programs out there to help reduce the upfront costs. Here in Ontario, the ISOs save on energy programs provide an incentive to any customer type, from residential all the way up to large commercial to install rooftop solar, and homeowners can access additional funding to install the battery along with their solar. If you're interested in doing this, or you want to learn a little bit more, you can reach out to your LDC, visit our website. If you're in hydro Ottawa's territory, or visit save on energy.ca. In the near future, you will also likely see more utilities wanting to partner with der owners. I talked about this a little bit in my last episode with Andrea Nusser About grid modernization here at hydro Ottawa, we are working on a technology project that will be launched next year that will enable der owners to leverage their devices for an incentive to help manage the grid in targeted areas. It's pretty exciting stuff, and it's really the next wave of distributed energy resources on our grid and how we're going to interact with them. It's pretty exciting. So, there you have it. That's a quick summary of the different ways that DERs are used. If you're looking at installing a der in your home, whether that's solar or battery or anything else, or for your business for that matter, have a look at our website. Make sure you fill out the application forms and reach out to us so that we can help get you set up and get you using your der thanks for tuning in to another think energy short and look forward to chatting with you next time. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the think energy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Grid modernization goes beyond smart meters. It's making the grid more responsive, customer-focused, and resilient. Andrea Nuesser, Grid Modernization Leader at Capgemini Canada, joins thinkenergy to explain how smart tech, real-time data, and evolving customer relationships are changing how electricity is delivered, managed, and consumed. From account numbers to engaged consumers, electric vehicles to home energy, listen in to learn how the grid of the future will shape how you consume energy.

Related links

• IESO Peaks Perks Program: https://saveonenergy.ca/en/For-Your-Home/Peak-Perks

• Dr. Andrea Newer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-andrea-nuesser-201147188/

• Capgemini: https://www.capgemini.com/ca-en/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-cem-leed-ap-8b612114/

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

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Fire bans. Blackouts. Heat waves. Extreme weather is hitting harder and more often. Plus, Canada's electricity demand is soaring. In thinkenergy episode 161, host Trevor Freeman breaks down how utilities plan for grid resilience, from upgrading local infrastructure to planning a national east-west grid. He also explores how customer demand response can help prevent outages. Learn how climate and consumption are reshaping our energy systems and what's being done to keep the lights on through extreme weather.

Related links

• Electrifying Canada's remote communities with QUEST Canada (thinkenergy episode 143): https://thinkenergypodcast.com/episodes/electrifying-canadas-remote-communities-with-quest-canada/

• Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

• Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

To subscribe using Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinkenergy/id1465129405

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:07

Welcome to a thinkenergy short, hosted by me, Trevor Freeman. This is a bite sized episode designed to be a quick summary of a specific topic or idea related to the world of energy. This is meant to round out our collective understanding of the energy sector, and will complement our normal guest interview episodes. Thanks for joining and happy listening. Hi everyone, and welcome back to thinkenergy. I hope you all had a great summer at equal parts restful and exciting. Certainly, we had a great summer here. It was good to take a bit of a step back and think about all the exciting topics that we have to talk to you about coming up over the course of the next season of the think energy podcast. And it's nice to be back here behind the microphone. I'm recording this just at the tail end of summer, the kind of end of August, and looking forward to getting into lots of good content this year. Today, we're going to start off our season with a look at the impact of extreme weather on our grid, as our grid is already under pressure from growing electricity demand. So it's a bit of a look at what utilities are doing in the face of that pressure. So this will be a think energy short, and we'll bring you our guest episode the next time around. So let's dive right in then. What does extreme weather mean for Canada's electricity infrastructure, and should we be worried about its ability to handle that extreme weather? This is kind of top of mind right now. We're at the tail end of summer. It's been a pretty hot and dry summer, at least where I am. Incidentally, I'm about to head into Algonquin Park for a backcountry camping trip, and there's a fire bed on and that's not unheard of in Algonquin Park and in many parts of the country, but this late in the season, it's pretty rare. I think this might actually be the first time that we've had a fire ban so late in the season that I can remember that I've been camping on and I go pretty frequently. So that'll be a little bit unique. And so yeah, a hot, dry summer is certainly one of those things we think of when we think about the changing weather patterns. But this is also top of mind because Rukshar Ali, who's a journalist with CTV, has been exploring, you know, the weak points in Canada's electricity grids, and has been writing about what impact extreme weather might have on those grids. So at a very high level, Canada's power grids as they are built today and in the past, as they have been built. So at a high level, Canada's power grids, as we've been building them for the last 100 years or so, need improvements in order to be able to withstand the frequent extreme weather and growing demand for electricity that we're having. That's not anything new, we talk about that often, how we need to invest in our grid for both reliability as well as expansion and the growing electrification of our society. Climate change is here, extreme weather is here, and those things are adding strain to our grid at the same time that demand is increasing and the grid is is redundant in many aspects. If we lose one component, then we can continue on and serve parts of our customer base from other sections. But extreme weather events are likely to knock out several aspects of the grid at once, and we need to improve in order to be able to withstand that. To give you a sense of the magnitude of the issue, the North American Electric Liability Corporation predicts that within the next decade, half of North America will be at risk for a significant blackout. So let's talk a little bit about why extreme weather as we know as the as the globe warms up from climate change, the frequency and magnitude of weather events increases, so we'll see more extreme weather events, and those extreme weather events will be more extreme, to reuse that word, and we're already seeing this. So last year, for example, severe weather caused 1000 outages in Nova Scotia, between 2013 and 2023 if we look across the entire country, there were around 10 extreme weather events that caused nearly 20 million customers to lose power across Canada. And eight of those 10 extreme weather events occurred in the five year period between 2018 and 2023 so that the frequency of these very significant, very extreme weather events, is definitely growing up. This is all happening at the same time that the country's electricity demand is also increasing and placing pressure on our infrastructure. So we know that usage is going to grow with electrification. We've talked about that a lot here and here in Ontario, the Independent Electricity System Operator, is projecting that consumption will increase by 75% by the year 2050, which is a significant jump up. And so as demand is increasing, we're also seeing that pressure on the grid from that and extreme weather kind of exacerbates that problem too. So extreme heat waves cause people to use their air conditioners more frequently and for longer, and that puts greater demand on the grid as well. So in July of 2023 you might recall this extreme kind of heat period in British Columbia out on the West Coast, and there's the heat dome, and that period saw the province use about 8% more electricity on average, than the previous kind of six year July average. So there is a significant increase from that one single heat event. So what do we do about this? How do we act in the face of increased extreme weather and electrification. Well, first off, we definitely need to update our infrastructure. And utility companies across the country and indeed across North America know this and have already started to do this here in hydro Ottawa's territory, for example, as I've talked about before, hydro Ottawa has a five year investment plan covering the 2026 to 2030 period, which is the largest investment plan in our company's history, and it carries a significant amount of investment in grid reliability, grid modernization, improving and expanding our infrastructure for just these challenges, so for the extreme weather and increased electricity demand across Our grid, if you zoom out a little bit and other parts of the country, the East Coast, for example, Nova Scotia Power recently finished a pole replacement project that saw a significant number of poles being replaced, and they're now moving into a Smart Grid Initiative, which is similar to grid modernization that I've talked about Here on the show in the past, which also addresses utilization of the grid, as well as ability to react during an outage on a bigger scale across the entire country, the federal government has promised to look at an east, west electricity grid, which would help connect more Canadians to more affordable and reliable power. And obviously, new construction would be focused on being able to withstand extreme weather as well as bring on more electricity demand as part of electrification. We've talked here in the past on the show, and the CTV journalist Ali points out that the current grid system makes it a lot easier for provinces to transfer electricity to the United States. It's kind of that north south flow of electricity is a lot easier than an East West flow of electricity. So trading between provinces today is difficult, and that's why there's a push for a national grid, an East West grid, that would make it a lot easier for Canadians to share electricity amongst each other. This would also have the benefit of helping connect more rural and remote communities. So I draw your attention back to a podcast episode I did with quest Canada, where we talked about some of those more remote communities and how a lot of them are not connected to a reliable grid. So there's a lot of work that can be done to really shore up how we connect across the country to the different areas, especially with a major east west grid. And of course, this is supported during this kind of, you know, a little bit tumultuous political climate that we have as we're reevaluating trading relationships with the United States, with other countries, it's important that we really focus on, how do we make sure things flow very well within our own borders? Beyond just the transmission and the grid upgrades that we need to do, we also need to look at diversifying our supply of electricity. So here in Canada, we use a lot of hydro generation, but extreme weather that causes droughts put that at risk. And so low water levels can impact electrical production, and we need to be prepared to have alternative sources as well. We still need to focus on making sure those sources are renewable. So really looking at expanding wind, solar, nuclear energy in some cases, as well as building out other hydro electric generation resources, is really important to have a good diversified mix. And on top of all that, we also need to continue looking at, how can we lower our energy consumption, especially during those peak times, especially when the grid is under stress at certain times of the day or from certain weather events. And we've seen that this can work. So in January 2024 the Alberta electric system operator, or IESO, issued an alert. It was a cold weather alert asking customers to reduce their electricity use during an extremely cold period in that province. And. And shortly after that, there was a 200 megawatt drop in electricity demand, which really helped the province avoid a series of rolling outages and avoid some real challenges on the grid. So it does work when customers are asked to alter their behavior in, you know, hopefully, small and subtle ways to manage grid peaks, and that's a really huge tool that we have. And we've talked before on the show about the role of managing peak times on the grid and being able to shift some of that usage to other times to avoid over stressing the assets that we have. That's going to be a really important strategy as we face increasing demand and extreme weather outages to make sure we're not over stressing the grid. So to sum that all up, extreme weather is going to impact our grid, and utilities do need to be aware of that and plan for how to build a grid that is more resilient and more reliable in the face of that increasing extreme weather. The good news is that utility companies know this and are already moving in that direction, and hydro Ottawa is a good example of that, of really focusing on building out reliability on its grid with some of the investment plans that we have put forward, and that extends all the way up to the federal level as well, where our federal leadership is looking at, how do we plan a EAST, WEST grid, really build out that provincial grid, and while we do that, a continued focus on energy efficiency and reducing electricity demand during peak times, and the various tools that we have to do that. So yes, extreme weather is coming, but there's a plan of how to deal with that. So thanks for tuning in today. It's really great to be back here behind the microphone and chatting with you all. Our next episode is another look at grid modernization, but this time through a customer lens, and really, what does grid modernization mean for customers? So stay tuned and join us in two weeks for our next episode. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the think energy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest, you can always reach us at [email protected], you.

Summer rewind: Hydro Ottawa recently unveiled its largest investment plan ever, with a five-year focus on modernizing and strengthening the grid. The way we're consuming energy is changing, and this investment plan focuses on four key areas that highlight why Hydro Ottawa is taking action, and how they plan on doing it.

Hydro Ottawa's Chief Operating Officer, Guillaume Paradis, joins thinkenergy to dive a little deeper into those focus areas, and why they matter, with host Trevor Freeman.

Related links

● Guillaume Paradis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guillaume-paradis-30a47721

● Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-8b612114

● Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

To subscribe using Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinkenergy/id1465129405

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:00

Hi everyone. Well, summer is here, and the think energy team is stepping back a bit to recharge and plan out some content for the next season. We hope all of you get some much needed downtime as well, but we aren't planning on leaving you hanging over the next few months, we will be re releasing some of our favorite episodes from the past year that we think really highlight innovation, sustainability and community. These episodes highlight the changing nature of how we use and manage energy, and the investments needed to expand, modernize and strengthen our grid in response to that. All of this driven by people and our changing needs and relationship to energy as we move forward into a cleaner, more electrified future, the energy transition, as we talk about many times on this show. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll be back with all new content in September. Until then, happy listening.

Trevor Freeman 00:55

Welcome to think energy, a podcast that dives into the fast changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts, feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydroottawa.com.

Trevor Freeman 01:19

hi everyone, and welcome back. A few episodes back I talked about some of the important work that happens at the distribution level to maintain and expand our grid, and I tried to connect the dots between that work and the broader societal energy transition that is happening at all levels. How the work we do at the distribution level is really important and tied to some of those larger projects that may get a little bit more news and attention that energy transition, which, as you're hopefully aware by now, is ongoing right now. It's not something of the future. It's happening today. That energy transition is multifaceted, but from an electricity and electrification perspective, the distribution utility, ie the Hydro Ottawa, of whatever jurisdiction you're in, is at the very leading edge of many of the changes we need to see within our electricity system to support that transition. So today, I'd like to go a little bit further with that topic and focus on Hydro Ottawa's next five year investment plan, which covers the 2026 to 2030 period. This will be the largest investment plan in our history as a company. And I wanted to dig into what we have identified as key focus areas for investment in the coming five years, with more than 100 years of operating a large, complex distribution network, Hydro Ottawa is embarking on a pretty significant journey to modernize and strengthen our grid for the challenges and opportunities ahead of us. We have filed our 2026, to 2030, Electricity Distribution rate application, as it's called, with the Ontario Energy Board, and this is a standard practice for all local distribution companies in Ontario. That's what we have to do. As a reminder for our listeners, the Ontario Energy Board, or OEB, as we often call it, is our independent regulator. Their mission in this process is to strike a balance between ensuring the financial health and operational needs of utilities like Hydro Ottawa, while also safeguarding the affordability and reliability of the service for the customer. So they want to make sure that we're spending enough to tackle the right projects on the grid, to make sure it stays operational while not spending too much. They meticulously scrutinize every detail of these applications to ensure that the proposed rates are just and reasonable, and that all investments are prudent and really in the public interest. So we have gotten a number of questions about the plan and specifically around where is the money going to go? What are you going to actually spend these dollars that you're requesting on? And why are these investments necessary? What benefits are they actually going to bring to our community? And often we get the question of, does this mean less outages or shorter outages? So I want to dig into that. I want to talk a little bit about what we've got planned and what the impact will be, and what the impact would be if we don't do those things, and to help me walk through that energy roadmap, that plan that we've put together. I've got Guillaume Paradis joining me today. Guillaume is the Chief Operating Officer of generation and distribution here at Hydro Ottawa, and he's going to join me, and we're going to talk through this. Guillaume and his teams are responsible for the planning, design, operation, construction and maintenance of our electrical power distribution system, and in his role, he leads the teams that are directly accountable for ensuring the safe, efficient and reliable delivery of electricity to our customers. Today, I'm going to ask Guillaume, really, to walk us through the details of. Our investment plan, how it was shaped, how we came up with these specific areas, and what benefits are going to be realized by our community and the broader energy landscape. Guillaume, Paradis, welcome to the show. Pleasure to be here. Trevor, okay, so, Guillaume, this is Hydro Ottawa's largest investment plan ever, and I'd like you to start by talking us through the primary drivers behind what our five year investment plan is.

Guillaume Paradis 05:29

Yeah, so as you've heard, as you've seen, we're in a historical, or historically, you know, unique point in the evolution of our industry. Electricity underpins most of our societal aspirations with respect to creating, you know, a more sustainable future, creating the future we want to leave for the next generations. And our distribution system underpins a lot of those aspirations in simple ways and in more complex ways. So, you know, a simple way is that essentially, for, you know, the well being of our society, for our customers, the residents of Ottawa, and really any area, to live the lives they're hoping to live, to, you know, enjoy the benefits of modern life. Electricity is a critical underpinning in any way you can imagine and you know, think about so. Our service has always been very important. It's just become even more critical as a foundational block for you know, the lives that we're hoping to live and we're living today in our modern society. So that, combined with other aspirations related to where we can reducing our carbon footprint and integrating more renewable energy resources within our footprint, it creates a situation where there's a significant need for us to invest, continue to invest and reinvest in our infrastructure to deliver those outcomes for customers.

Trevor Freeman 07:16

Yeah, I think, I mean, we talk a lot about the energy transition on the show, and if, if you think about, you know, let's say our previous rate application five years ago, the energy transition was a thing we knew about it, but it was like a thing of tomorrow where, hey, that's going to come soon. The difference now, I assume, and maybe you can speak to this, is we're seeing that. We're seeing the change now.

Guillaume Paradis 07:40

Yeha, you're exactly correct, like we're in it now. So we've been talking about it for some time, both from a like a general societal aspiration standpoint, but also from a technological standpoint. For a very long time, we talked about electric vehicles having an impact and becoming more commonplace. We talked about leveraging automation to deliver our services. We talked about two way power flows. So we've been building toward this moment, and now we're essentially in it, if you will, and we're seeing all those things, the confluence of all those longer term trends, sort of manifest themselves in real demand for our system, in real changes in our customers want to use energy, and we're in the middle of that, and we're, you know, to enable those things happening in our community here in Ottawa.

Trevor Freeman 08:36

Yeah. So it's like the business as usual, a lot of the same things, and we're going to talk about some of this. About some of the specifics, but a lot of the same thing, things we would normally do just a lot more of at the same time, as like also pivoting a little bit to meet some of these new needs, like charging transportation and like heating our spaces, more of electricity, like some of these new needs that didn't exist are not to the same extent. So it's like more of the same plus other new stuff, and we're gonna talk about that in a minute.

Guillaume Paradis 09:11

Yeah. So, you know, we always would say that the future of the energy sector was very exciting, and things were coming and like, change was upon us, and now, essentially, we're, we're living it, right? So you have to carry on with the responsibilities that you always had, and meanwhile, figure out how to deliver those new outcomes, those new services that previously weren't required or expected, right?

Trevor Freeman 09:39

So let's, let's kind of get into some of the details here. So there are four key capital investment categories in this plan, so growth and electrification, aging, infrastructure, grid modernization and grid resilience. So we're going to dive into the specifics of these in a minute, but we're. To start off with why these four? How did we land on these four as the main categories?

Guillaume Paradis 10:07

Yeah, so there's, there's various ways you can categorize investments. There's a lot of drivers that will lead us to invest in an area or replace some infrastructure somewhere in our system, these categories capture quite well. What is at the core of various investments. So for one specific investment, there will be multiple drivers, but these ones sort of in an elegant way, I would say, capture. You know why investments are occurring, what the primary driver is for those investments, and they help translate that for folks who are not involved day to day in planning the electricity system, that's our responsibility. What we're trying to communicate is why we're taking action where we're taking action. So those categories, in my mind, capture that really well. They also tie our investments to broad trends that people should be aware of, and they're a way to make sure that we have, you know, a clear baseline for a conversation as we proceed with those plans.

Trevor Freeman 11:18

Yeah, one thing I find, and you know, in my role, I talk to customers a lot, and I find these are fairly easy to explain, or at least, I hope they are, if you're listening and you disagree, let us know. But people can kind of get their heads around why the utility needs to do each of these four things, and some, in some ways, they align with other sectors as well. So I think, and I hope, as we carry on our conversation here, it'll be easy to sort of build out the picture of what we're doing in each of those four areas. So why don't we? Let's dive right in then and look at the specifics. And starting with growth and electrification, what are the specific investments that are planned to support the growing energy needs of our community, you know. And we've already started talking about electric vehicles, other electrified aspects of our lives, like, what? What falls into this category?

Guillaume Paradis 12:11

Yeah, so with respect to growth and electrification, um, there's a few underlying trends that drive the investment requirements. So as you've suggested, as you mentioned, you know, there's an evolution of how our customers use energy at home, day to day. EVS being obviously a primary example that everyone will be very aware of. Just, you know, driving around town, frankly, the difference in how regularly you'll see electric vehicles in our community relative to even five years ago is is pretty dramatic, and that is having a long term, you know, impact over time, likewise for technologies like heat pumps at home, and just generally, the growth of our community. So those elements just drive a longer-term trend of more demand being present in our community, within our system. And in addition to that, one big change that we've seen over the last few years is more large scale demand request coming into our service territory, typically, that will be large customers wanting to do something different with energy. So it could go. It could be driven by a few different kinds of corporate aspirations. What we're seeing a lot of are instances where large corporations decide, or institutions decide, to do away with more carbon intensive energy sources, so they will look to us and electricity to replace what previously would have been another fuel source that maybe is less green. So we're seeing that affecting choices some of those type of customers are making, and then at the same time, we're seeing just large requests related to a different type of energy demand. So companies wanting to, for example, bring back their R and D efforts to a data center that they operate and they control, so that they have more control over cybersecurity elements, and then, likewise, with where their data flows to and how it's being managed. So we're seeing large requests at a rate that we didn't previously, and that those requests are significant enough that they require us to make very major investments, like new substations, like building a. New feeders again at a pace that far outpaces what we've seen historically. So the underlying trend of more small demand creating an impact at the aggregate level, combined with those larger requests, that's creating a significant need for us to invest in responding to that growth in the electrification drivers within our system.

Trevor Freeman 15:29

Yeah, so this is in response to what we're seeing our customers do. And that's it's something that has come up before in conversation here. Of you know, we we respond to what we see our customers doing and what our customers are asking us. They're asking for more power. We have to respond to provide that more power. So this, this kind of area of investment, is really just building out the grid and all of the assets and infrastructure that are that make up the grid to be able to meet the needs of our customers, which are growing faster than they were previously? Is that fair to say?

Guillaume Paradis 16:05

Yeah, and for us, it's an interesting balancing act we have to find where we have to anticipate our customers' needs and the demand that's upon us, but we can't get ahead of it, because that would draw investments that potentially would, you know, later become stranded, or, you know, create a cost burden for our customers. So we have to know where the demand is going, and we have to be ready to respond and connect new customers, but we can't get too far ahead of it, because ultimately, you know, if we invest too soon, that's, you know, a burden for all our customers. So sometimes I, I would say there's that misconception that somehow, we're, we're creating our own forecast and believing our own forecast. And really, it's a bit simpler than that, we take in the request and we respond to those requests. We have to be able to look out a few years to make sure that we're not missing, you know, anything significant that would have an impact on our system, but we don't get too far ahead from an investment standpoint.

Trevor Freeman 17:19

Okay, so Guillaume, we've been talking about the more traditional aspects of our grid, you know, pulls, wires, transformers, et cetera. But I know that we're also looking at how we can deploy what we call non wire solutions to also help manage capacity on our grid. Can you just explain what some of these solutions are and how we're going to use them in conjunction with our traditional assets to manage grid needs.

Guillaume Paradis 17:43

Yeah, so normal alternatives are essentially the concept that without having to install traditional infrastructure, think poles, new Transformers, new cables, underground, you may be able to harvest existing resources within your footprint to help you manage operational needs. Be it like certain peaks that have a short duration, other scenarios of constraints where, rather than building net new infrastructure, which is expensive and time consuming, you might be able to optimize I'll call it the use of embedded resources in a manner that actually meets your operational objectives. So the way you would do that is by using combination of resources. Typically, you would look at small scale embedded storage. So if it exists in the system, you would actually leverage it if, if you could, otherwise, you might install some in a very targeted manner that helps you meet those operational needs. And then otherwise, you would leverage customer resources. So that's either existing generation that is owned by customers, or which is more typical, you know their ability to adjust their demand at certain times to meet your operational constraints. So the idea there is that you can do a business case, you can do an evaluation of what it would take to engage all these resources to get the same operational outcome as you would if you build the new infrastructure, and compare the two on a cost basis. And actually, in some instances, see scenarios where those non wire alternatives actually beat out large scale infrastructure upgrades from a financial standpoint. So it's, it's an evolving area. We have a few pockets within the city that we're targeting for programs like those ones, and we expect, over time, as more embedded resources proliferate, as more customer devices become controllable, we'll have a great. Greater opportunity, in fact, to leverage those non wire alternatives, or those non traditional solutions to meet our operational requirements.

Trevor Freeman 20:08

Great. So this is a combination of you know, Hydro Ottawa is planning to invest in in some assets, you know, be they battery or otherwise, on our side of the meter. We call that in front of the meter to help manage grid needs, while also looking for opportunities to partner with customers you know in the aggregate, so you know 100 or 1000 customers at once, to say if we need to call on your devices to either inject into the grid or to ramp back your operations, that will help us manage grid needs while the customer still maintains control. Is that fair to say?

Guillaume Paradis 20:47

Yeah, that's fair, and that's an emerging capacity we have. So if our ability to control and call upon a very large number of small devices and customer devices has grown and is growing and will be over the next few years. And with that, our capacity to then draw from those resources to respond to operational circumstances is also increasing and will give us options we just wouldn't have had in the past. So it's just a better way of utilizing available energy resources a more refined way, and one that probably wasn't available to us at scale 10 years ago.

Trevor Freeman 21:29

Yeah, and the driver behind all this is what's the best, most cost effective way to address that grid need? Some cases it's going to be the poles and wires and transformers. In some cases, it's going to be these non wire solutions, and it's part of the planning of the grid to identify where does each technology make sense.

Guillaume Paradis 21:50

Absolutely. So again, it's a more refined way of assessing options and ensuring that we identify the most cost effective strategies possible.

Trevor Freeman 22:02

Perfect, great. Okay, so that's the growth and electrification section. Let's move to aging infrastructure, which is about a third of this investment plan. So this may seem like a softball to start with, but what are some of the challenges posed by aging infrastructure? Maybe talk to us a little bit about what that infrastructure is when it comes to utility grid, and then what are what are we doing with this investment plan to address that aging infrastructure?

Guillaume Paradis 22:31

Yeah, so aging infrastructure is a very clear and appropriate descriptor here. So we invest in assets that are long lived, think 5060, years plus in some instances, and you know, eventually you use them, you leverage them over, you know, many decades. And at some point, those assets deteriorate beyond a point where they're no longer able to provide the service that our customers expect. So that would be failures, which leads to reliability issues in parts of our system. So one at one point or another in the life cycle of those assets, depending on how they're being used, what environment they are operated in, you have to replace them. What we try to do is assess them on a risk basis. And when we say risk, we mean, what impact can they have on our customers if they were to fail? Impacts can be things like safety risk. It could be, of course, reliability issues. It could limit our ability to service our customers. And so we assess risk on an ongoing basis, looking at those assets over decades. And eventually we get to a point where the risk has to be addressed, and that typically takes the form of or it can take the form of an outright replacement through the life cycle of all those assets, all of our assets. We do maintenance, we inspect them, we try to see if there are other things we can do before we replace them. But you get to a point ultimately, where the only option that's viable is to actually replace and then you have to go in and take action, physically in the field. Now what becomes a little complicated is, as you can imagine, it's one thing to put infrastructure up when a field being converted to a subdivision, or the city's growing and it's all brand new. You know, infrastructure being developed to support the growth, but decades later, when you come back, 60-70, years plus, in some cases, you're in someone's backyard. You're in the middle of an intersection where multiple utilities have installed their own infrastructure. So you have to coordinate that things have been moved over time. So getting access to the infrastructure is more difficult. Difficult, and so replacing many decades later is a lot more involved than putting up new infrastructure in the first place, and the type of infrastructure that we're talking about here probably falls into three major categories. So there's the overhead infrastructure you see around town. So really, when you and you shouldn't do that while you're driving, but if you're walking ideally, and you're looking at the beautiful hydro infrastructure around Ottawa, what you'll see are very old poles that need attention. So that's very visible, right? We have wood poles, you know, in a lot of the areas of our city, and you get to a point where structurally, they're not as strong as they used to be. They've weathered many storms, and they need attention. And then otherwise, it's the Transformers you might see on those poles. And that would be the boxes that are hanging from the poles, the ones that look like they, you know, predate the Cold War are the ones we're going after, and we need to give some attention to today. And then on the underground side, similar infrastructure, it's cables in in the ground, so in some instances, it's buried directly in someone's backyard. That was a an approach people took many decades back. Now, you can imagine it's very convenient when you're building it, but not so much when you're trying to get it out of the ground and put new cables into the ground. So there's cables that need replacing. They've, you know, been damaged or creating reliability issues. The transformers that go with that as well might need attention. And again, as I mentioned before, you know, decades later, that transformer may be right behind someone's pool in their backyard, and they've done some real nice landscaping, and accessing it for a replacement is a lot more complicated. So underground infrastructure, in fact, is one of the more complicated replacements to execute. And then, you know, if you move up from there, you're looking at substation equipment. So that's the stuff that's fenced in across the city where power is being delivered from to our customers across the city. And so those assets may be a bit less complicated in terms of managing sites and access, but certainly complicated in terms of logistics costs of the equipment. Those are very, very large assets that require a lot of planning to replace, because they're critical to our system, and we can't afford to have them be out of service too long.

Trevor Freeman 27:49

Got you and just for our listeners, while Guillaume talking, I pulled up a few quick stats here. So we, Hydro Ottawa on our service territory, has over 6000 kilometers of conductor so of wires and just under 50,000 poles out in our service territory. So as you can imagine, a lot of that is in great shape, and some of it isn't, and some of it needs to be addressed, just like you're talking about here Guillaume.

Guillaume Paradis 28:17

Yeah, and that's helpful. Trevor. The thing that we often forget, especially for electricity distribution, is the sheer number of assets that can create a risk. So it's one thing to manage one large transformer and make sure it doesn't fail, but when you're talking about 1000s of assets dispersed around a very large service territory like Ottawa, making sure that we keep an eye on all of them at all times, making sure that we intervene at the exact time prior to a failure, to make sure we deliver the best service possible for our customers. That's really the essence of our challenge and what makes distribution unique versus other parts of our business, where it's maybe more centralized and you may be looking at a smaller set of assets.

Trevor Freeman 29:04

Yeah, absolutely okay, so obviously, it's important to maintain what we've got, in addition to building out that new stuff that we talked about earlier, maintaining and replacing what we have, so that you know our existing grid remains reliable. The next section of our investment plan is what we call grid modernization. Now that's something that we've talked about to varying levels of detail on this show before, but I'd like you to talk us through what is in this investment plan over the next five years. When we talk about grid modernization, what are we actually doing? What are some of the specific things that we're gonna put some of our investment towards?

Guillaume Paradis 29:45

Yeah, so grid monetization is, is a category that gets talked about a lot, but maybe is, I would say, a bit misunderstood, I think, because it sounds futuristic, people assume we're doing a. And very different things. And ultimately, in my mind, it's better leveraging technology to get good outcomes for our customers. It's really that simple. So as you can imagine, you know, as I talked about, we're looking at assets that have expected life of 50- 60-70, years when some of our assets were first installed, things like communication technology, things like IT, operational technology, weren't as advanced as they are today. Our ability to collect data in real time was not what it is today, and so nada we're we have an opportunity to reinvest and replace all assets. It's important that we do so in a manner that will allow us to drive essentially more performance or better performance out of the assets we put in our system, so that can take various forms. As I mentioned, getting better real time information is one of those ways in which we can leverage technology, what that allows us to do is better respond to outages, offer a better service by being more aware of what's happening at any given point in time, getting better information in near real time as to what assets are posing a risk to reliability because they've been utilized heavily, or they've seen a lot of faults, for example. And so building in that technological infrastructure as a layer that enhances the traditional investments that we've always made is sort of the right thing to do in a context where you want to optimize where you spend your dollars, and you don't want to have to go back and reinvest on the same assets or in the same parts of our system multiple times, uh, over, you know, the coming years, in the coming decades. So the grid monetization portfolio, essentially is our opportunity to, you know, very strategically, identify where we can put in technology that will allow us to get more of our assets and provide a better service for our customers. So simple things like automated devices that would be automated switches that we install on our overhead infrastructure, underground infrastructure that gives us a capacity during an outage to shift demand around and resupply our customers more rapidly than we would have been able to otherwise, and that gives us a capacity to provide a better service under contingency scenario. So very simple, right? It's telemetry. It's communication to a device. And rather than have someone physically go in the field and, you know, switch customers and try to move demand around, we can do that remotely from our control center, likewise, in the control center, putting in more telemetry to identify and proactively suggest to our operators how to restore power to customers. Again, is a simple thing in by today's standard, right? It's not competent technology. It's not complicated software, but it's a layer that didn't exist previously, where we can have software, you know, model based. Its tool suggest how best to optimize the restoration of power. And as we do that, our trade operators get to review and take action in an informed manner. So grid, modernization, again, is about making the most of today's available technology while we reinvest in our distribution system to make sure that the quality of our service, and the breadth of the services we can provide align, well, going forward, with our customers aspirations, and provide a quality service for many decades to come.

Trevor Freeman 34:15

Yeah, and I think it's important to remember, and you know this, this little saying has been out there in the industry, and I've used it before. Of the electricity grid is the world's largest machine. Like the grid itself is a piece of technology, and like any technology, we would not be happy if it stayed stagnant, like we want it to evolve with the latest and greatest and operate better and more efficiently, and the grid is no different, and so part of grid modernization is just keeping up with what's out there to make sure we are delivering the service that we deliver in the best way, in the most advanced way, in the most efficient way possible. With that. Guillaume, what about things like, you know, we hear a lot about more distributed energy resources, so more small-scale generation or storage out there on the grid that might be owned by the utility, but it might not be. It might be customer owned. What are we doing from a grid modernization perspective, to enable more distributed energy resources to utilize that those assets more on our grid?

Guillaume Paradis 35:28

Yeah, so that's core to the evolution and we're proposing and working toward and and really, if you boil it down to, you know, simple kind of concept, it's really that traditionally, we've had a static model of how our grid needs to operate, and we planned accordingly. So, you know, power flows in one direction to certain size customers. They use electricity to use our energy, and then we protect, we coordinate, we control accordingly, and we're moving into an environment where customer behavior evolves in a dynamic fashion in near real time, depending on what prices are available in the electricity market, depending on what aspirations various Customers have, depending on what technology they want to deploy to manage their energy footprint, a customer may look different, really, from one day to the next, as far as the electricity system is concerned, because their demand might be less significant on a day where their solar panels are better able to generate energy on a day where they choose to leverage a large battery system that they've installed at their facilities to manage their demand. And so from an electricity system standpoint, we need a much better awareness of what is happening in near real time to be able to control and then respond and ultimately offer the right service for our customers. So that's a big change again, going back to the how we're going to enable that. It's again, the core elements of communication infrastructure, more telemetry, so that we can see what's happening in real time. Think sensors. Think smart meters. Think, you know, software system within our control room to take all that information, information in in real time and make sense of it, and then ultimately drive our decision making and support our customers in leveraging energy resources in an optimal way for their needs, by making sure that we're aware of what's happening and not create barriers that are artificial because we're not Sure, and when we're not sure, safety is paramount, and when you prioritize safety and you don't have information, you have to be very conservative in the decisions you make, and you may limit customers choices and behavioral, you know choices, by having to have that safety margin and that safety conscience kind of override everything else. So better telemetry, better real time information, more dynamic ways of controlling energy allow us to enable customers and support their aspirations ultimately,

Trevor Freeman 38:38

I mean, it really comes kind of full circle back to our job is to let our customers do what they want to do when it comes to energy, enable that, and that may be just making sure the power is there and available, but it also may be making sure that our grid is set up to allow them to generate and store and sort of interact with energy in the way that they want to. So those two things are quite parallel. Okay, great. Last category here is grid resilience, and this is an important one, and especially in the eyes of our customers, because, you know, we're that unique industry where most of the time, people don't think of us when they really do think about us, it's because the lights have gone off, because there's some event that has resulted in an outage. And I just want to ensure our customers, we try very, very hard to make sure that doesn't happen as much as we can't control everything. So we have this category of grid resilience in our investment plan, and we know that we're going to be seeing and we have already started to see more frequent extreme weather events that is increasing. It's not going down. So what are we doing in our investment plan, or what are we planning to do in order to enhance grid resiliency and withstand those extreme weather event?

Guillaume Paradis 40:01

Yeah, so the need for resilience, in my mind, comes from a couple places. So, you know, there are drivers that are external, so the operating environment is evolving to your point. We've seen a number of very impactful weather events over the last few years, whether it be historically impactful ice storms, we've seen tornadoes in our service territory in a way that we didn't previously. We saw derecho a couple years ago, which was, you know, by some measure, the most impactful storm in the history of our company. And so, we know what we plan to withstand has evolved, and we need to reflect that in the decisions we make when we invest in our infrastructure. That can take a few forms, but for grid resilience, we're targeting specific investments so we can identify, and have identified areas of our system that are more vulnerable. Imagine overhead infrastructure that is more exposed to stronger winds. And so, we can go in there and then target those areas, target those segments of our system and make them more robust, more resistant to those external factors. And so, we have assessed our entire service territory. We've studied, you know, our vulnerability to changing patterns, to changing weather events, and in a very targeted manner, identified areas where we'll take action over the next five years to boost resilience of our electricity system in those scenarios, and really just generally. The other element is, you know, while those external factors are evolving and creating a stress on our system, we're also seeing people's dependence on electricity is availability continue to grow, right? So, you know, we've been through this many times at this point, and I'm sure it's been covered on on this podcast a number of times. But you know, people's, you know, need for highly and readily available electricity continues to go up. Think, you know, remote work. Think our utilization of, you know, the internet and the technologies that support that people need access to power, you know, on an ongoing basis for a variety of reasons that support their lifestyles. And so, while the external factors have become and are becoming more challenging and creating a stress, we're also seeing customers relying more heavily on our service being available, and so those things combined make it sort of an imperative that we take action and ensure that our system is robust and can withstand those conditions that are upon us. So, we change our planning approach. We evolve our choices with respect to investments. It could be simpler things than you know, targeting areas and replacing specific infrastructure. It could be as simple as changing our standards so that when we install a new poll, we know that it can withstand harsher winds and heavier ice loading parameters, and we do that across all our investments. So that's a key point here, with respect to grid resilience. Yes, we have a targeted, sort of very strategic approach to building resilience, but we also do that across all our investment categories when we put money in our distribution system to make sure that, similar to the point we made about technology, you know, we invest in assets that will, you know, outlive many of us, and they need to be adequate and appropriate for the environment in which they will operate long term. So we change, you know, the choices we make. We change the materials we use to build the infrastructure that we put in our system, so that ultimately the service levels and service quality that our customers get to enjoy, you know, meets their expectations for decades to come.

Trevor Freeman 44:47

I think the idea like it's good that we have called out specifically some activities targeted at group resilience, but some of the other stuff that we've already talked about all. Support resilience. And you mentioned in the grid modernization part, you know, part of that is restoring power to most customers quicker in our growth and electrification part, I mean making sure that our grid can handle the new loads also lends itself to resiliency. So, all of this is in service of making sure that power is there for our customers when they need it, how they need it, and done in a sort of safe and affordable way. That's the goal of all these categories together.

Guillaume Paradis 45:33

Yeah, absolutely the you know, going back to the earlier point, the categories are helpful in identifying the major drivers. But ultimately, to your point, Trevor, they all support each other, and when our team plans the future of electricity system, they do so in an integrated manner that considers the various benefits that we can achieve by taking action and putting more money in our distribution system?

Trevor Freeman 46:02

Yeah, great. So that's a nice segue into his next question, which is, of course, there's a cost for this, and this is why it is an investment plan. We're out there outlining, these are our targets. This is what we want to do, but there's a cost to that. And so if we don't do this. If we said, look, we just can't put that extra investment into these areas. What are the implications on the grid, on our service? And let's look at kind of like quality of service, reliability, safety, et cetera, if we don't make these investments that we are identifying right now.

Guillaume Paradis 46:41

Yeah, so it's pretty direct, right? We what we've done for the in preparation for our rate application, in preparation for to develop our plans for 2026 to 2030 is we've considered all the needs. We've looked at how old the assets are, how quickly they're deteriorating, how many might require replacement over the next five years. What would be an appropriate race rate of replacement to ensure that we don't let let risk build up in our system, we don't cause reliability issues. We've looked at making how we make sure that we can provide service to our customers, that we can connect them in a timely, timely manner, that we can do all those things in a fashion that is safe and ensures the safety of the public, our customers. And so a lot of thought goes into what is required over the next five years, and then on top of those factors and considerations, we also look at what impact will this have financially on our customers, because we're mindful that our service does affect, you know, our customers lives, yes, in a positive manner When our services reliable and power is available, but also financially from a cost standpoint, we add to other pressures that everyone experiences in their lives. And so we want to be very judicious in setting the size of our programs the level of investments in managing those various factors, right? So we have a multifaceted responsibility, and we weigh all those factors in in our or in setting the plans for the future. So doing so looking five years out, as you can probably imagine, you know, if we didn't constrain the plans. If we just did everything our planning engineers would like to do, we would have spent probably another 50% more than what is in the current plan. So looking at old assets, looking at the service levels we want to deliver, we could have spent a significantly larger amount of money if it was purely based on, we'll call them planning, you know, drivers. But as I said, we are mindful that we're responsible for the quality of our service on behalf of all our customers. And we took a very deliberate, you know, extensive approach to adjusting the program size to match the various considerations and ultimately manage the impact on our customers from a financial standpoint. And so we landed where we are after some measure of restraint, some measure of adjustments, down to the plans that would otherwise have been put in place. So thinking about what the outcomes would be if we didn't take the actions we're proposing. You know, it's pretty direct, if you think about it, and we've covered most of them, but it. Just from difficulties in connecting and delivering power to new customers in a timely manner, so that can have impacts with respect to economic development and growth of our community so fairly direct, and frankly, it's our obligation to connect. So we would do everything we can to provide power, but it might just be more difficult take more time on the reliability front. Again, what happens when you don't replace old assets is the failure risks continue to build in your system. So an 80 year old wood pole doesn't get any younger and does it get any stronger if you wait five, six more years? And so as I said, we do a risk assessment before we choose to invest, and our risk assessments tell us that we need to take action on those type of assets. And, you know, take action in a timely manner. If we don't, what is likely to happen is that in a storm scenario, those polls that are deteriorated are more likely to fail, even in normal conditions, it's likely that we would see more failures that could lead to reliability issues, and so just a direct impact on the quality of our service for customers with respect to other outcomes like enabling customers and supporting them in integrating more embedded energy resources. That might just become more difficult, as I said earlier, when we're don't have good real time awareness, we have to err on the side of caution and be more conservative in our management of the system, and that might mean restrictions on where and how we can integrate renewable energy resources. And then ultimately, you know, the paramount consideration for us is always safety, and that's an area where we would just have to be even more vigilant if we couldn't reinvest so old assets, you know, are inherently more likely to create failure risks, and failures can lead to undesirable outcomes from a safety standpoint. So we would have to, and already do, but be very vigilant in monitoring those assets, looking at them, looking at what we can do from a maintenance standpoint to ensure that they don't fail in a manner that would be problematic. So we would be, and are always, very active in looking at those riskier assets, those older assets, to make sure they don't cause problems. But reducing investment levels from what is being proposed now, reducing them further relative to, as I said, the planning levels we would have liked to put forward would have real consequences, and of course, we would do everything we can to manage those consequences and ensure that, you know, we continue to deliver the best service we can. But that would become more difficult than it is today.

Trevor Freeman 53:15

I appreciate that that context of you know, you like me, like energy, and we want to do all the cool things, and we want to have the system that is absolutely able to handle every eventuality, but we have to balance that with what is the right level of investment, what is the right pace to go at? And I think, you know, having seen the process, there's been a lot of work over the last year plus to find that balance, and I think we've, we've hit that balance in terms of being able to move the ball forward while trying to maintain that sort of affordability aspect for customers. Last question here to kind of wrap it all up, and we've touched on this a few times in some of the other questions, but how does our investment plan align with that broader energy transition that that we talk about? You know, decarbonizing, reducing emissions, increasing sort of customer flexibility when it comes to their own generation and storage. And what role do you see Hydro Ottawa playing moving forward in that? And I know that this has already gotten a little bit of attention, but I'll give you a chance just to kind of tie a nice little bow around it at the end.

Guillaume Paradis 54:39

Yeah. So to your point, we did cover a few elements, how we enable those you know, sustainability aspirations. But you know it ranges from making it possible for large customers to shift a significant portion of their energy demand to a lower. A carbon source like electricity. So again, think a customer who would use natural gas for their facilities, and you know, for corporate reasons, decides to use electricity instead us connecting that extra demand and delivering power to them allows them to lower their foot their carbon footprint. So that would be on high end in terms of size and impact, all the way to enabling customers to install different technologies on their homes, within their homes, to reduce their carbon footprint and change how they use energy. So it could be as simple as buying EV and making sure that power is available within that neighborhood to supply demand from that EV. It could be them installing solar panels on their roof and try to export power back to us. And so that would tie to the earlier point around visibility and real time awareness that we need to have to make sure that we can make that possible. So again, you know the energy system, the electricity system is integrated in so many ways, and enabling our customers to achieve their sustainability outcomes, their desired outcomes in terms of energy use, comes from planning the energy system, the electricity distribution system, in a manner that supports that and that permits it. So again, going back to some categories, the grid modernization that we spoke about earlier fits right in there. So being aware allows us to allow and enable customers, and that becomes critical again, in an environment where things are very dynamic, and we want to support that dynamism, and we need to do so in a manner that's safe. So we need information, and we need technology that allows us to go get that information to support the decision making. So as we said, all the investments we're proposing in one way or another will support our supporting those decarbonization and emission reduction objectives that we all have.

Trevor Freeman 57:26

Right, yeah, it really comes back to the idea of us being and this is something that I certainly talk to our customers about. A lot of us being partners with our customers when it comes to their energy journeys, and that can be very active partners in the sense of the word, where we are involved in helping make decisions together on technology or strategies, or it can be very passive in that kind of residential model that you talked about, of just making sure the grid can be there in the way that the customer wants it to be there, and that's still a partnership that that we need to lean into and that we are kind of through this investment plan.

Guillaume Paradis 58:07

We're essentially underpinning people's aspirations when it comes to energy, and so we're there to make it possible for them to do what they're hoping to do. And you're absolutely right. We're seeing both ends of those conversations where some you know, go about their own choices and really don't need us involved, and our responsibility there is to make sure that we don't create a roadblock by not being prepared and not being equipped to respond to you know how they want to change their behavior, all the way to that partnership, where it's a very involved conversation, we're being brought in to fully explore all the options and work with stakeholders in essentially demystifying, or maybe more specifically, sort of see through some of the complexity that exists today in an environment that is much more dynamic again and offers a lot more options than people would have seen a few decades ago.

Trevor Freeman 59:11

Fantastic. Well, Guillaume, I think we'll leave it there. This has been great, and I appreciate you taking the time to help pick apart you know what? What can be a pretty complex, lengthy plan, but really boils down to building out the grid, continuing to do the great work that that the folks at Hydro Ottawa do, while also preparing for the future. So I appreciate your insight into this. As our listeners know we always end these interviews with a series of questions, and you're no different. So I'm going to dive, dive right into that. So Guillaume, what is a book that you've read that you think everyone should read?

Guillaume Paradis 59:54

Yeah, so I'm probably going to get his name wrong, or at least the pronunciation, but it's a book called How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil. Essentially, you know, he's a very pragmatic thinker with respect to how systems work, how our world is integrated, from a supply standpoint, from a geopolitical standpoint, and how that leads to outcomes in the real world. And think things like energy, think things like food supply. And what I like with his approach is that he breaks thing that things down, sort of from a first principle standpoint, to try to help explain why certain things may or may not be possible, and in an environment where, and maybe that's just my perspective, but I think today, there's a lot of big picture, you know, broad opinions being shared by people who may or may not always be very knowledgeable or have the expertise in certain fields. It's nice to see someone kind of break things down to then try to support, or in some cases, dispel certain misconceptions. So really nice approach. He has a number of books that are similar in nature, some cases a bit dense to read through, frankly, but I would say the how the world really works, book is easier to digest and it's it's a good entry into kind of his works and his approach to his studies. The other thing that's a plus maybe, is that he's based out of Winnipeg in Canadians, so it's great to have a mind like his, you know, contributing to the discourse in Canada.

Trevor Freeman 1:01:59

Awesome. So same question, but for a movie or a show, what's a movie or show that you think everyone should check out?

Guillaume Paradis 1:02:05

Yeah, that's a little harder. I think maybe I'll go to an old classic. For me. I'm always impressed with extreme creativity, I'll call it - in whatever forms. I think it's neat to see how people can envision a world - or create a world. And so an example for me was the Grand Budapest Hotel movie by Wes Anderson, so I think people are familiar with his work by now. I just like the combination of humor color, color like the creation of a world that doesn't quite exist but resembles one we might know. And just, you know, it's, it's a way of expressing oneself that is so interesting, so different. He does it really, really well. And, you know, I find it sort of like awe inspiring to go back to those kinds of movies and look at, certainly, there's all sorts of good content these days that's being produced, but I think this one is kind of withstood the test of time so far and kind of brings you to a different place. So I'll point to that.

Trevor Freeman 1:03:17

Yeah, it's one of those where it's not just about the story. Watching that movie is a bit of an experience. And all the ways that you just said, you know, there's like, an artificial aspect to it. There's that sort of mental, emotional side of it, and then there's the story itself, with the humor and everything. So yeah, that's a great one. I really like that.

Guillaume Paradis 1:03:35

Always fascinating to think someone was able to come up with that, right? Like that. Yeah, totally have all like, the attention to details, the way in which the storylines are integrated, the way in which the decors, the images are graphed like it's just remarkable. And, and I think in anything, it's really cool to see people who are sort of masters at their art, right? And whatever for and there's all sorts of other examples. But that one, you know, came to mind.

Trevor Freeman 1:04:09

Yeah, very cool. If you had a free round trip flight anywhere in the world, where would you go?

Guillaume Paradis 1:04:13

I think for me, it'd be somewhere very far north. I think it's on the list somewhere for the next few years, but just getting access to lands scenery that you wouldn't otherwise is really cool concept, maybe even spaces that are a bit less impacted by human you know, behavior and presence. So I just think a flight to somewhere random that maybe doesn't even have a name, but is in between two small villages that can only be accessed by a plane. I think that would be cool.

Trevor Freeman 1:04:58

Yeah, that does sound very cool. I like that. Who is someone that you admire?

Guillaume Paradis 1:05:03

Yeah, so my wife, for sure, I think that's sort of the foundation of a healthy relationship. You should have some admiration for your partner, and I absolutely do more generally. I would just point to anyone in our lives, and I think we all know people like that who spend a large amount of their time making other people's lives better. I could pick, you know, a celebrity of some kind, or politician of some kind, or even a historical figure, but, you know, I think in general, it doesn't have to be that complicated, people who just invest a lot of their time making sure others lives are better. I think that's something we should all admire, aspire to, you know, emulate, if we can, and just recognize as well. Because a lot of the times people do that, the people who do it well, don't do it for recognition. It doesn't mean they don't deserve it. And I think we should kind of try to promote it, you know, recognize it in our lives, and encourage it and emulate it, if we can.

Trevor Freeman 1:06:20

Fantastic. Well said. Last question, what is something about the energy sector or its future that you are particularly excited about?

Guillaume Paradis 1:06:25

Yeah, so I've been in the sector for about 20 years now, in fact, longer than that. My father worked for Hydro Quebec for many decades. So think we spent a lot of time talking about the future and getting excited about a future that was to come, and just the fact that we're living it now that we're actually shaping it, is pretty exciting, maybe even not appreciated to its full extent. And I think having a chance to contribute now is really awesome, and to whatever extent we can as well, I'm trying to encourage as many people as possible to join our sector, bring various backgrounds, you know, expertise, knowledge to helping us make decisions about how energy is going to be used in our society going forward, and how we can make the most this confluence of factors that create the window of opportunity to change things and make them evolve. And so for those of us who are part of it, let's not take it for granted, and let's make sure that we contribute to the full extent of our capabilities.

Trevor Freeman 1:07:45

Awesome, great, great way to wrap this up, I agree completely. Guillaume, thanks so much for your time. I really appreciate it. And sharing your thoughts with us. Really appreciate you coming on the show.

Guillaume Paradis 1:07:56

Thanks. Trevor, pleasure.

Trevor Freeman 1:07:59

Great take care. Well, there you have it everybody that was our last episode of the season before our summer break. Our regular listeners will know that we typically take a break over the summer to regroup and work on content and plan out the next year. But don't worry, we will be still releasing episodes every two weeks. They will just be rewind episodes, and we'll take a look back at some of our favorite episodes or things that we feel are particularly relevant for what's going on right now. So keep tuning in and listen to those, and we will be back with brand new content in September. Take care and have a safe summer. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the thinkenergy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review and review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from you, whether it's feedback, comments or an idea for a show or a guest. You can always reach us at [email protected].

Summer rewind: Greg Lindsay is an urban tech expert and a Senior Fellow at MIT. He's also a two-time Jeopardy champion and the only human to go undefeated against IBM's Watson. Greg joins thinkenergy to talk about how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping how we manage, consume, and produce energy—from personal devices to provincial grids, its rapid growth to the rising energy demand from AI itself. Listen in to learn how AI impacts our energy systems and what it means individually and industry-wide.

Related links:

● Greg Lindsay website: https://greglindsay.org/

● Greg Lindsay on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-lindsay-8b16952/

● International Energy Agency (IEA): https://www.iea.org/

● Trevor Freeman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-freeman-p-eng-cem-leed-ap-8b612114/

● Hydro Ottawa: https://hydroottawa.com/en

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Transcript:

Trevor Freeman 00:00

Hi everyone. Well, summer is here, and the think energy team is stepping back a bit to recharge and plan out some content for the next season. We hope all of you get some much needed downtime as well, but we aren't planning on leaving you hanging over the next few months, we will be re releasing some of our favorite episodes from the past year that we think really highlight innovation, sustainability and community. These episodes highlight the changing nature of how we use and manage energy, and the investments needed to expand, modernize and strengthen our grid in response to that. All of this driven by people and our changing needs and relationship to energy as we move forward into a cleaner, more electrified future, the energy transition, as we talk about many times on this show. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll be back with all new content in September. Until then, happy listening.

Trevor Freeman 00:55

Welcome to think energy, a podcast that dives into the fast changing world of energy through conversations with industry leaders, innovators and people on the front lines of the energy transition. Join me, Trevor Freeman, as I explore the traditional, unconventional and up and coming facets of the energy industry. If you have any thoughts feedback or ideas for topics we should cover, please reach out to us at think energy at hydro ottawa.com, Hi everyone. Welcome back. Artificial intelligence, or AI, is a term that you're likely seeing and hearing everywhere today, and with good reason, the effectiveness and efficiency of today's AI, along with the ever increasing applications and use cases mean that in just the past few years, AI went from being a little bit fringe, maybe a little bit theoretical to very real and likely touching everyone's day to day lives in ways that we don't even notice, and we're just at the beginning of what looks to be a wave of many different ways that AI will shape and influence our society and our lives in the years to come. And the world of energy is no different. AI has the potential to change how we manage energy at all levels, from our individual devices and homes and businesses all the way up to our grids at the local, provincial and even national and international levels. At the same time, AI is also a massive consumer of energy, and the proliferation of AI data centers is putting pressure on utilities for more and more power at an unprecedented pace. But before we dive into all that, I also think it will be helpful to define what AI is. After all, the term isn't new. Like me, many of our listeners may have grown up hearing about Skynet from Terminator, or how from 2001 A Space Odyssey, but those malignant, almost sentient versions of AI aren't really what we're talking about here today. And to help shed some light on both what AI is as well as what it can do and how it might influence the world of energy, my guest today is Greg Lindsay, to put it in technical jargon, Greg's bio is super neat, so I do want to take time to run through it properly. Greg is a non resident Senior Fellow of MIT's future urban collectives lab Arizona State University's threat casting lab and the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft center for strategy and security. Most recently, he was a 2022-2023 urban tech Fellow at Cornell Tech's Jacobs Institute, where he explored the implications of AI and augmented reality at an urban scale. Previously, he was an urbanist in resident, which is a pretty cool title, at BMW minis urban tech accelerator, urban X, as well as the director of Applied Research at Montreal's new cities and Founding Director of Strategy at its mobility focused offshoot, co motion. He's advised such firms as Intel, Samsung, Audi, Hyundai, IKEA and Starbucks, along with numerous government entities such as 10 Downing Street, us, Department of Energy and NATO. And finally, and maybe coolest of all, Greg is also a two time Jeopardy champion and the only human to go undefeated against IBM's Watson. So on that note, Greg Lindsey, welcome to the show.

Greg Lindsay 04:14

Great to be here. Thanks for having me. Trevor,

Trevor Freeman 04:16

So Greg, we're here to talk about AI and the impacts that AI is going to have on energy, but AI is a bit of one of those buzzwords that we hear out there in a number of different spheres today. So let's start by setting the stage of what exactly we're talking about. So what do we mean when we say AI or artificial intelligence?

Speaker 1 04:37

Well, I'd say the first thing to keep in mind is that it is neither artificial nor intelligence. It's actually composites of many human hands making it. And of course, it's not truly intelligent either. I think there's at least two definitions for the layman's purposes. One is statistical machine learning. You know that is the previous generation of AI, we could say, doing deep, deep statistical analysis, looking for patterns fitting to. Patterns doing prediction. There's a great book, actually, by some ut professors at monk called prediction machines, which that was a great way of thinking about machine learning and sense of being able to do large scale prediction at scale. And that's how I imagine hydro, Ottawa and others are using this to model out network efficiencies and predictive maintenance and all these great uses. And then the newer, trendier version, of course, is large language models, your quads, your chat gpts, your others, which are based on transformer models, which is a whole series of work that many Canadians worked on, including Geoffrey Hinton and others. And this is what has produced the seemingly magical abilities to produce text and images on demand and large scale analysis. And that is the real power hungry beast that we think of as AI today.

Trevor Freeman 05:42

Right! So different types of AI. I just want to pick those apart a little bit. When you say machine learning, it's kind of being able to repetitively look at something or a set of data over and over and over again. And because it's a computer, it can do it, you know, 1000s or millions of times a second, and learn what, learn how to make decisions based on that. Is that fair to say?

Greg Lindsay 06:06

That's fair to say. And the thing about that is, is like you can train it on an output that you already know, large language models are just vomiting up large parts of pattern recognition, which, again, can feel like magic because of our own human brains doing it. But yeah, machine learning, you can, you know, you can train it to achieve outcomes. You can overfit the models where it like it's trained too much in the past, but, yeah, it's a large scale probabilistic prediction of things, which makes it so powerful for certain uses.

Trevor Freeman 06:26

Yeah, one of the neatest explanations or examples I've seen is, you know, you've got these language models where it seems like this AI, whether it's chat, DBT or whatever, is writing really well, like, you know, it's improving our writing. It's making things sound better. And it seems like it's got a brain behind it, but really, what it's doing is it's going out there saying, What have millions or billions of other people written like this? And how can I take the best things of that? And it can just do that really quickly, and it's learned that that model, so that's super helpful to understand what we're talking about here. So obviously, in your work, you look at the impact of AI on a number of different aspects of our world, our society. What we're talking about here today is particularly the impact of AI when it comes to energy. And I'd like to kind of bucketize our conversation a little bit today, and the first area I want to look at is, what will ai do when it comes to energy for the average Canadian? Let's say so in my home, in my business, how I move around? So I'll start with that. It's kind of a high level conversation. Let's start talking about the different ways that AI will impact you know that our average listener here?

Speaker 1 07:41

Um, yeah, I mean, we can get into a discussion about what it means for the average Canadian, and then also, of course, what it means for Canada in the world as well, because I just got back from South by Southwest in Austin, and, you know, for the second, third year in row, AI was on everyone's lips. But really it's the energy. Is the is the bottleneck. It's the forcing factor. Everyone talked about it, the fact that all the data centers we can get into that are going to be built in the direction of energy. So, so, yeah, energy holds the key to the puzzle there. But, um, you know, from the average gain standpoint, I mean, it's a question of, like, how will these tools actually play out, you know, inside of the companies that are using this, right? And that was a whole other discussion too. It's like, okay, we've been playing around with these tools for two, three years now, what do they actually use to deliver value of your large language model? So I've been saying this for 10 years. If you look at the older stuff you could start with, like smart thermostats, even look at the potential savings of this, of basically using machine learning to optimize, you know, grid optimize patterns of usage, understanding, you know, the ebbs and flows of the grid, and being able to, you know, basically send instructions back and forth. So you know there's stats. You know that, basically you know that you know you could save 10 to 25% of electricity bills. You know, based on this, you could reduce your heating bills by 10 to 15% again, it's basically using this at very large scales of the scale of hydro Ottawa, bigger, to understand this sort of pattern usage. But even then, like understanding like how weather forecasts change, and pulling that data back in to basically make fine tuning adjustments to the thermostats and things like that. So that's one stands out. And then, you know, we can think about longer term. I mean, yeah, lots have been lots has been done on imagining, like electric mobility, of course, huge in Canada, and what that's done to sort of change the overall energy mix virtual power plants. This is something that I've studied, and we've been writing about at Fast Company. At Fast Company beyond for 20 years, imagining not just, you know, the ability to basically, you know, feed renewable electricity back into the grid from people's solar or from whatever sources they have there, but the ability of utilities to basically go in and fine tune, to have that sort of demand shaping as well. And then I think the most interesting stuff, at least in demos, and also blockchain, which has had many theoretical uses, and I've got to see a real one. But one of the best theoretical ones was being able to create neighborhood scale utilities. Basically my cul de sac could have one, and we could trade clean electrons off of our solar panels through our batteries and home scale batteries, using Blockchain to basically balance this out. Yeah, so there's lots of potential, but yeah, it comes back to the notion of people want cheaper utility bills. I did this piece 10 years ago for the Atlantic Council on this we looked at a multi country survey, and the only reason anybody wanted a smart home, which they just were completely skeptical about, was to get those cheaper utility bills. So people pay for that.

Trevor Freeman 10:19

I think it's an important thing to remember, obviously, especially for like the nerds like me, who part of my driver is, I like that cool new tech. I like that thing that I can play with and see my data. But for most people, no matter what we're talking about here, when it comes to that next technology, the goal is make my life a little bit easier, give me more time or whatever, and make things cheaper. And I think especially in the energy space, people aren't putting solar panels on their roof because it looks great. And, yeah, maybe people do think it looks great, but they're putting it up there because they want cheaper electricity. And it's going to be the same when it comes to batteries. You know, there's that add on of resiliency and reliability, but at the end of the day, yeah, I want my bill to be cheaper. And what I'm hearing from you is some of the things we've already seen, like smart thermostats get better as AI gets better. Is that fair to say?

Greg Lindsay 11:12

Well, yeah, on the machine learning side, that you know, you get ever larger data points. This is why data is the coin of the realm. This is why there's a race to collect data on everything. Is why every business model is data collection and everything. Because, yes, not only can they get better, but of course, you know, you compile enough and eventually start finding statistical inferences you never meant to look for. And this is why I've been involved. Just as a side note, for example, of cities that have tried to implement their own data collection of electric scooters and eventually electric vehicles so they could understand these kinds of patterns, it's really the key to anything. And so it's that efficiency throughput which raises some really interesting philosophical questions, particularly about AI like, this is the whole discussion on deep seek. Like, if you make the models more efficient, do you have a Jevons paradox, which is the paradox of, like, the more energy you save through efficiency, the more you consume because you've made it cheaper. So what does this mean that you know that Canadian energy consumption is likely to go up the cleaner and cheaper the electrons get. It's one of those bedeviling sort of functions.

Trevor Freeman 12:06

Yeah interesting. That's definitely an interesting way of looking at it. And you referenced this earlier, and I will talk about this. But at the macro level, the amount of energy needed for these, you know, AI data centers in order to do all this stuff is, you know, we're seeing that explode.

Greg Lindsay 12:22

Yeah, I don't know that. Canadian statistics my fingertips, but I brought this up at Fast Company, like, you know, the IEA, I think International Energy Agency, you know, reported a 4.3% growth in the global electricity grid last year, and it's gonna be 4% this year. That does not sound like much. That is the equivalent of Japan. We're adding in Japan every year to the grid for at least the next two to three years. Wow. And that, you know, that's global South, air conditioning and other needs here too, but that the data centers on top is like the tip of the spear. It's changed all this consumption behavior, where now we're seeing mothballed coal plants and new plants and Three Mile Island come back online, as this race for locking up electrons, for, you know, the race to build God basically, the number of people in AI who think they're literally going to build weekly godlike intelligences, they'll, they won't stop at any expense. And so they will buy as much energy as they can get.

Trevor Freeman 13:09

Yeah, well, we'll get to that kind of grid side of things in a minute. Let's stay at the home first. So when I look at my house, we talked about smart thermostats. We're seeing more and more automation when it comes to our homes. You know, we can program our lights and our door locks and all this kind of stuff. What does ai do in order to make sure that stuff is contributing to efficiency? So I want to do all those fun things, but use the least amount of energy possible.

Greg Lindsay 13:38

Well, you know, I mean, there's, again, there's various metrics there to basically, sort of, you know, program your lights. And, you know, Nest is, you know, Google. Nest is an example of this one, too, in terms of basically learning your ebb and flow and then figuring out how to optimize it over the course of the day. So you can do that, you know, we've seen, again, like the home level. We've seen not only the growth in solar panels, but also in those sort of home battery integration. I was looking up that Tesla Powerwall was doing just great in Canada, until the last couple of months. I assume so, but I it's been, it's been heartening to see that, yeah, this sort of embrace of home energy integration, and so being able to level out, like, peak flow off the grid, so Right? Like being able to basically, at moments of peak demand, to basically draw on your own local resources and reduce that overall strain. So there's been interesting stuff there. But I want to focus for a moment on, like, terms of thinking about new uses. Because, you know, again, going back to how AI will influence the home and automation. You know, Jensen Wong of Nvidia has talked about how this will be the year of robotics. Google, Gemini just applied their models to robotics. There's startups like figure there's, again, Tesla with their optimists, and, yeah, there's a whole strain of thought that we're about to see, like home robotics, perhaps a dream from like, the 50s. I think this is a very Disney World esque Epcot Center, yeah, with this idea of jetsy, yeah, of having home robots doing work. You can see concept videos a figure like doing the actual vacuuming. I mean, we invented Roombas to this, but, but it also, I, you know, I've done a lot of work. Our own thinking around electric delivery vehicles. We could talk a lot about drones. We could talk a lot about the little robots that deliver meals on the sidewalk. There's a lot of money in business models about increasing access and people needing to maybe move less, to drive and do all these trips to bring it to them. And that's a form of home automation, and that's all batteries. That is all stuff off the grid too. So AI is that enable those things, these things that can think and move and fly and do stuff and do services on your behalf, and so people might find this huge new source of demand from that as well.

Trevor Freeman 15:29

Yeah, that's I hadn't really thought about the idea that all the all these sort of conveniences and being able to summon them to our homes cause us to move around less, which also impacts transportation, which is another area I kind of want to get to. And I know you've, you've talked a little bit about E mobility, so where do you see that going? And then, how does AI accelerate that transition, or accelerate things happening in that space?

Greg Lindsay 15:56

Yeah, I mean, I again, obviously the EV revolutions here Canada like, one of the epicenters Canada, Norway there, you know, that still has the vehicle rebates and things. So, yeah. I mean, we've seen, I'm here in Montreal, I think we've got, like, you know, 30 to 13% of sales is there, and we've got our 2035, mandate. So, yeah. I mean, you see this push, obviously, to harness all of Canada's clean, mostly hydro electricity, to do this, and, you know, reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for either, you know, Climate Change Politics reasons, but also just, you know, variable energy prices. So all of that matters. But, you know, I think the key to, like the electric mobility revolution, again, is, is how it's going to merge with AI and it's, you know, it's not going to just be the autonomous, self driving car, which is sort of like the horseless carriage of autonomy. It's gonna be all this other stuff, you know. My friend Dan Hill was in China, and he was thinking about like, electric scooters, you know. And I mentioned this to hydro Ottawa, like, the electric scooter is one of the leading causes of how we've taken internal combustion engine vehicles offline across the world, mostly in China, and put people on clean electric motors. What happens when you take those and you make those autonomous, and you do it with, like, deep seek and some cameras, and you sort of weld it all together so you could have a world of a lot more stuff in motion, and not just this world where we have to drive as much. And that, to me, is really exciting, because that changes, like urban patterns, development patterns, changes how you move around life, those kinds of things as well. That's that might be a little farther out, but, but, yeah, this sort of like this big push to build out domestic battery industries, to build charging points and the sort of infrastructure there, I think it's going to go in direction, but it doesn't look anything like, you know, a sedan or an SUV that just happens to be electric.

Trevor Freeman 17:33

I think that's a the step change is change the drive train of the existing vehicles we have, you know, an internal combustion to a battery. The exponential change is exactly what you're saying. It's rethinking this.

Greg Lindsay 17:47

Yeah, Ramesam and others have pointed out, I mean, again, like this, you know, it's, it's really funny to see this pushback on EVs, you know. I mean, I love a good, good roar of an internal combustion engine myself, but, but like, you know, Ramesam was an energy analyst, has pointed out that, like, you know, EVS were more cost competitive with ice cars in 2018 that's like, nearly a decade ago. And yeah, the efficiency of electric motors, particularly regenerative braking and everything, it just blows the cost curves away of ice though they will become the equivalent of keeping a thorough brat around your house kind of thing. Yeah, so, so yeah, it's just, it's that overall efficiency of the drive train. And that's the to me, the interesting thing about both electric motors, again, of autonomy is like, those are general purpose technologies. They get cheaper and smaller as they evolve under Moore's Law and other various laws, and so they get to apply to more and more stuff.

Trevor Freeman 18:32

Yeah. And then when you think about once, we kind of figure that out, and we're kind of already there, or close to it, if not already there, then it's opening the door to those other things you're talking about. Of, well, do we, does everybody need to have that car in their driveway? Are we rethinking how we're actually just doing transportation in general? And do we need a delivery truck? Or can it be delivery scooter? Or what does that look like?

Greg Lindsay 18:54

Well, we had a lot of those discussions for a long time, particularly in the mobility space, right? Like, and like ride hailing, you know, like, oh, you know, that was always the big pitch of an Uber is, you know, your car's parked in your driveway, like 94% of the time. You know, what happens if you're able to have no mobility? Well, we've had 15 years of Uber and these kinds of services, and we still have as many cars. But people are also taking this for mobility. It's additive. And I raised this question, this notion of like, it's just sort of more and more, more options, more availability, more access. Because the same thing seems to be going on with energy now too. You know, listeners been following along, like the conversation in Houston, you know, a week or two ago at Sarah week, like it's the whole notion of energy realism. And, you know, there's the new book out, more is more is more, which is all about the fact that we've never had an energy transition. We just kept piling up. Like the world burned more biomass last year than it did in 1900 it burned more coal last year than it did at the peak of coal. Like these ages don't really end. They just become this sort of strata as we keep piling energy up on top of it. And you know, I'm trying to sound the alarm that we won't have an energy transition. What that means for climate change? But similar thing, it's. This rebound effect, the Jevons paradox, named after Robert Stanley Jevons in his book The question of coal, where he noted the fact that, like, England was going to need more and more coal. So it's a sobering thought. But, like, I mean, you know, it's a glass half full, half empty in many ways, because the half full is like increasing technological options, increasing changes in lifestyle. You can live various ways you want, but, but, yeah, it's like, I don't know if any of it ever really goes away. We just get more and more stuff,

Trevor Freeman 20:22

Exactly, well. And, you know, to hear you talk about the robotics side of things, you know, looking at the home, yeah, more, definitely more. Okay, so we talked about kind of home automation. We've talked about transportation, how we get around. What about energy management? And I think about this at the we'll talk about the utility side again in a little bit. But, you know, at my house, or for my own personal use in my life, what is the role of, like, sort of machine learning and AI, when it comes to just helping me manage my own energy better and make better decisions when it comes to energy? ,

Greg Lindsay 20:57

Yeah, I mean, this is where it like comes in again. And you know, I'm less and less of an expert here, but I've been following this sort of discourse evolve. And right? It's the idea of, you know, yeah, create, create. This the set of tools in your home, whether it's solar panels or batteries or, you know, or Two Way Direct, bi directional to the grid, however it works. And, yeah, and people, you know, given this option of savings, and perhaps, you know, other marketing messages there to curtail behavior. You know? I mean, I think the short answer the question is, like, it's an app people want, an app that tell them basically how to increase the efficiency of their house or how to do this. And I should note that like, this has like been the this is the long term insight when it comes to like energy and the clean tech revolution. Like my Emery Levin says this great line, which I've always loved, which is, people don't want energy. They want hot showers and cold beer. And, you know, how do you, how do you deliver those things through any combination of sticks and carrots, basically like that. So, So, hence, why? Like, again, like, you know, you know, power walls, you know, and, and, and, you know, other sort of AI controlled batteries here that basically just sort of smooth out to create the sort of optimal flow of electrons into your house, whether that's coming drive directly off the grid or whether it's coming out of your backup and then recharging that the time, you know, I mean, the surveys show, like, more than half of Canadians are interested in this stuff, you know, they don't really know. I've got one set here, like, yeah, 61% are interested in home energy tech, but only 27 understand, 27% understand how to optimize them. So, yeah. So people need, I think, perhaps, more help in handing that over. And obviously, what's exciting for the, you know, the utility level is, like, you know, again, aggregate all that individual behavior together and you get more models that, hope you sort of model this out, you know, at both greater scale and ever more fine grained granularity there. So, yeah, exactly. So I think it's really interesting, you know, I don't know, like, you know, people have gamified it. What was it? I think I saw, like, what is it? The affordability fund trust tried to basically gamify AI energy apps, and it created various savings there. But a lot of this is gonna be like, as a combination like UX design and incentives design and offering this to people too, about, like, why you should want this and money's one reason, but maybe there's others.

Trevor Freeman 22:56

Yeah, and we talk about in kind of the utility sphere, we talk about how customers, they don't want all the data, and then have to go make their own decisions. They want those decisions to be made for them, and they want to say, look, I want to have you tell me the best rate plan to be on. I want to have you automatically switch me to the best rate plan when my consumption patterns change and my behavior chat patterns change. That doesn't exist today, but sort of that fast decision making that AI brings will let that become a reality sometime in the future,

Greg Lindsay 23:29

And also in theory, this is where LLMs come into play. Is like, you know, to me, what excites me the most about that is the first time, like having a true natural language interface, like having being able to converse with an, you know, an AI, let's hopefully not chat bot. I think we're moving out on chat bots, but some sort of sort of instantiation of an AI to be like, what plan should I be on? Can you tell me what my behavior is here and actually having some sort of real language conversation with it? Not decision trees, not event statements, not chat bots.

Trevor Freeman 23:54

Yeah, absolutely. Okay, so we've kind of teased around this idea of looking at the utility levels, obviously, at hydro Ottawa, you referenced this just a minute ago. We look at all these individual cases, every home that has home automation or solar storage, and we want to aggregate that and understand what, what can we do to help manage the grid, help manage all these new energy needs, shift things around. So let's talk a little bit about the role that AI can play at the utility scale in helping us manage the grid.

Greg Lindsay 24:28

All right? Well, yeah, there's couple ways to approach it. So one, of course, is like, let's go back to, like, smart meters, right? Like, and this is where I don't know how many hydro Ottawa has, but I think, like, BC Hydro has like, 2 million of them, sometimes they get politicized, because, again, this gets back to this question of, like, just, just how much nanny state you want. But, you know, you know, when you reach the millions, like, yeah, you're able to get that sort of, you know, obviously real time, real time usage, real time understanding. And again, if you can do that sort of grid management piece where you can then push back, it's visual game changer. But, but yeah. I mean, you know, yeah, be. See hydro is pulling in. I think I read like, like, basically 200 million data points a day. So that's a lot to train various models on. And, you know, I don't know exactly the kind of savings they have, but you can imagine there, whether it's, you know, them, or Toronto Hydro, or hydro Ottawa and others creating all these monitoring points. And again, this is the thing that bedells me, by the way, just philosophically about modern life, the notion of like, but I don't want you to be collecting data off me at all times, but look at what you can do if you do It's that constant push pull of some sort of combination of privacy and agency, and then just the notion of like statistics, but, but there you are, but, but, yeah, but at the grid level, then I mean, like, yeah. I mean, you can sort of do the same thing where, like, you know, I mean, predictive maintenance is the obvious one, right? I have been writing about this for large enterprise software companies for 20 years, about building these data points, modeling out the lifetime of various important pieces equipment, making sure you replace them before you have downtime and terrible things happen. I mean, as we're as we're discussing this, look at poor Heathrow Airport. I am so glad I'm not flying today, electrical substation blowing out two days of the world's most important hub offline. So that's where predictive maintenance comes in from there. And, yeah, I mean, I, you know, I again, you know, modeling out, you know, energy flow to prevent grid outages, whether that's, you know, the ice storm here in Quebec a couple years ago. What was that? April 23 I think it was, yeah, coming up in two years. Or our last ice storm, we're not the big one, but that one, you know, where we had big downtime across the grid, like basically monitoring that and then I think the other big one for AI is like, Yeah, is this, this notion of having some sort of decision support as well, too, and sense of, you know, providing scenarios and modeling out at scale the potential of it? And I don't think, I don't know about this in a grid case, but the most interesting piece I wrote for Fast Company 20 years ago was an example, ago was an example of this, which was a fledgling air taxi startup, but they were combining an agent based model, so using primitive AI to create simple rules for individual agents and build a model of how they would behave, which you can create much more complex models. Now we could talk about agents and then marrying that to this kind of predictive maintenance and operations piece, and marrying the two together. And at that point, you could have a company that didn't exist, but that could basically model itself in real time every day in the life of what it is. You can create millions and millions and millions of Monte Carlo operations. And I think that's where perhaps both sides of AI come together truly like the large language models and agents, and then the predictive machine learning. And you could basically hydro or others, could build this sort of deep time machine where you can model out all of these scenarios, millions and millions of years worth, to understand how it flows and contingencies as well. And that's where it sort of comes up. So basically something happens. And like, not only do you have a set of plans, you have an AI that has done a million sets of these plans, and can imagine potential next steps of this, or where to deploy resources. And I think in general, that's like the most powerful use of this, going back to prediction machines and just being able to really model time in a way that we've never had that capability before. And so you probably imagine the use is better than I.

Trevor Freeman 27:58

Oh man, it's super fascinating, and it's timely. We've gone through the last little while at hydro Ottawa, an exercise of updating our playbook for emergencies. So when there are outages, what kind of outage? What's the sort of, what are the trigger points to go from, you know, what we call a level one to a level two to level three. But all of this is sort of like people hours that are going into that, and we're thinking through these scenarios, and we've got a handful of them, and you're just kind of making me think, well, yeah, what if we were able to model that out? And you bring up this concept of agents, let's tease into that a little bit explain what you mean when you're talking about agents.

Greg Lindsay 28:36

Yeah, so agentic systems, as the term of art is, AI instantiations that have some level of autonomy. And the archetypal example of this is the Stanford Smallville experiment, where they took basically a dozen large language models and they gave it an architecture where they could give it a little bit of backstory, ruminate on it, basically reflect, think, decide, and then act. And in this case, they used it to plan a Valentine's Day party. So they played out real time, and the LLM agents, like, even played matchmaker. They organized the party, they sent out invitations, they did these sorts of things. Was very cute. They put it out open source, and like, three weeks later, another team of researchers basically put them to work writing software programs. So you can see they organized their own workflow. They made their own decisions. There was a CTO. They fact check their own work. And this is evolving into this grand vision of, like, 1000s, millions of agents, just like, just like you spin up today an instance of Amazon Web Services to, like, host something in the cloud. You're going to spin up an agent Nvidia has talked about doing with healthcare and others. So again, coming back to like, the energy implications of that, because it changes the whole pattern. Instead of huge training runs requiring giant data centers. You know, it's these agents who are making all these calls and doing more stuff at the edge, but, um, but yeah, in this case, it's the notion of, you know, what can you put the agents to work doing? And I bring this up again, back to, like, predictive maintenance, or for hydro Ottawa, there's another amazing paper called virtual in real life. And I chatted with one of the principal authors. It created. A half dozen agents who could play tour guide, who could direct you to a coffee shop, who do these sorts of things, but they weren't doing it in a virtual world. They were doing it in the real one. And to do it in the real world, you took the agent, you gave them a machine vision capability, so added that model so they could recognize objects, and then you set them loose inside a digital twin of the world, in this case, something very simple, Google Street View. And so in the paper, they could go into like New York Central Park, and they could count every park bench and every waste bin and do it in seconds and be 99% accurate. And so agents were monitoring the landscape. Everything's up, because you can imagine this in the real world too, that we're going to have all the time. AIS roaming the world, roaming these virtual maps, these digital twins that we build for them and constantly refresh from them, from camera data, from sensor data, from other stuff, and tell us what this is. And again, to me, it's really exciting, because that's finally like an operating system for the internet of things that makes sense, that's not so hardwired that you can ask agents, can you go out and look for this for me? Can you report back on this vital system for me? And they will be able to hook into all of these kinds of representations of real time data where they're emerging from, and give you aggregated reports on this one. And so, you know, I think we have more visibility in real time into the real world than we've ever had before.

Trevor Freeman 31:13

Yeah, I want to, I want to connect a few dots here for our listeners. So bear with me for a second. Greg. So for our listeners, there was a podcast episode we did about a year ago on our grid modernization roadmap, and we talked about one of the things we're doing with grid modernization at hydro Ottawa and utilities everywhere doing this is increasing the sensor data from our grid. So we're, you know, right now, we've got visibility sort of to our station level, sometimes one level down to some switches. But in the future, we'll have sensors everywhere on our grid, every switch, every device on our grid, will have a sensor gathering data. Obviously, you know, like you said earlier, millions and hundreds of millions of data points every second coming in. No human can kind of make decisions on that, and what you're describing is, so now we've got all this data points, we've got a network of information out there, and you could create this agent to say, Okay, you are. You're my transformer agent. Go out there and have a look at the run temperature of every transformer on the network, and tell me where the anomalies are, which ones are running a half a degree or two degrees warmer than they should be, and report back. And now I know hydro Ottawa, that the controller, the person sitting in the room, knows, Hey, we should probably go roll a truck and check on that transformer, because maybe it's getting end of life. Maybe it's about to go and you can do that across the entire grid. That's really fascinating,

Greg Lindsay 32:41

And it's really powerful, because, I mean, again, these conversations 20 years ago at IoT, you know you're going to have statistical triggers, and you would aggregate these data coming off this, and there was a lot of discussion there, but it was still very, like hardwired, and still very Yeah, I mean, I mean very probabilistic, I guess, for a word that went with agents like, yeah, you've now created an actual thing that can watch those numbers and they can aggregate from other systems. I mean, lots, lots of potential there hasn't quite been realized, but it's really exciting stuff. And this is, of course, where that whole direction of the industry is flowing. It's on everyone's lips, agents.

Trevor Freeman 33:12

Yeah. Another term you mentioned just a little bit ago that I want you to explain is a digital twin. So tell us what a digital twin is.

Greg Lindsay 33:20

So a digital twin is, well, the matrix. Perhaps you could say something like this for listeners of a certain age, but the digital twin is the idea of creating a model of a piece of equipment, of a city, of the world, of a system. And it is, importantly, it's physics based. It's ideally meant to represent and capture the real time performance of the physical object it's based on, and in this digital representation, when something happens in the physical incarnation of it, it triggers a corresponding change in state in the digital twin, and then vice versa. In theory, you know, you could have feedback loops, again, a lot of IoT stuff here, if you make changes virtually, you know, perhaps it would cause a change in behavior of the system or equipment, and the scales can change from, you know, factory equipment. Siemens, for example, does a lot of digital twin work on this. You know, SAP, big, big software companies have thought about this. But the really crazy stuff is, like, what Nvidia is proposing. So first they started with a digital twin. They very modestly called earth two, where they were going to model all the weather and climate systems of the planet down to like the block level. There's a great demo of like Jensen Wong walking you through a hurricane, typhoons striking the Taipei, 101, and how, how the wind currents are affecting the various buildings there, and how they would change that more recently, what Nvidia is doing now is, but they just at their big tech investor day, they just partner with General Motors and others to basically do autonomous cars. And what's crucial about it, they're going to train all those autonomous vehicles in an NVIDIA built digital twin in a matrix that will act, that will be populated by agents that will act like people, people ish, and they will be able to run millions of years of autonomous vehicle training in this and this is how they plan to catch up to. Waymo or, you know, if Tesla's robotaxis are ever real kind of thing, you know, Waymo built hardwired like trained on real world streets, and that's why they can only operate in certain operating domain environments. Nvidia is gambling that with large language models and transformer models combined with digital twins, you can do these huge leapfrog effects where you can basically train all sorts of synthetic agents in real world behavior that you have modeled inside the machine. So again, that's the kind, that's exactly the kind of, you know, environment that you're going to train, you know, your your grid of the future on for modeling out all your contingency scenarios.

Trevor Freeman 35:31

Yeah, again, you know, for to bring this to the to our context, a couple of years ago, we had our the direcco. It's a big, massive windstorm that was one of the most damaging storms that we've had in Ottawa's history, and we've made some improvements since then, and we've actually had some great performance since then. Imagine if we could model that derecho hitting our grid from a couple different directions and figure out, well, which lines are more vulnerable to wind speeds, which lines are more vulnerable to flying debris and trees, and then go address that and do something with that, without having to wait for that storm to hit. You know, once in a decade or longer, the other use case that we've talked about on this one is just modeling what's happening underground. So, you know, in an urban environments like Ottawa, like Montreal, where you are, there's tons of infrastructure under the ground, sewer pipes, water pipes, gas lines, electrical lines, and every time the city wants to go and dig up a road and replace that road, replace that sewer, they have to know what's underground. We want to know what's underground there, because our infrastructure is under there. As the electric utility. Imagine if you had a model where you can it's not just a map. You can actually see what's happening underground and determine what makes sense to go where, and model out these different scenarios of if we underground this line or that line there. So lots of interesting things when it comes to a digital twin. The digital twin and Agent combination is really interesting as well, and setting those agents loose on a model that they can play with and understand and learn from. So talk a little bit about.

Greg Lindsay 37:11

that. Yeah. Well, there's a couple interesting implications just the underground, you know, equipment there. One is interesting because in addition to, like, you know, you know, having captured that data through mapping and other stuff there, and having agents that could talk about it. So, you know, next you can imagine, you know, I've done some work with augmented reality XR. This is sort of what we're seeing again, you know, meta Orion has shown off their concept. Google's brought back Android XR. Meta Ray Bans are kind of an example of this. But that's where this data will come from, right? It's gonna be people wearing these wearables in the world, capturing all this camera data and others that's gonna be fed into these digital twins to refresh them. Meta has a particularly scary demo where you know where you the user, the wearer leaves their keys on their coffee table and asks metas, AI, where their coffee where their keys are, and it knows where they are. It tells them and goes back and shows them some data about it. I'm like, well, to do that, meta has to have a complete have a complete real time map of your entire house. What could go wrong. And that's what all these companies aspire to of reality. So, but yeah, you can imagine, you know, you can imagine a worker. And I've worked with a startup out of urban X, a Canada startup, Canadian startup called context steer. And you know, is the idea of having real time instructions and knowledge manuals available to workers, particularly predictive maintenance workers and line workers. So you can imagine a technician dispatched to deal with this cut in the pavement and being able to see with XR and overlay of like, what's actually under there from the digital twin, having an AI basically interface with what's sort of the work order, and basically be your assistant that can help you walk you through it, in case, you know, you run into some sort of complication there, hopefully that won't be, you know, become like, turn, turn by turn, directions for life that gets into, like, some of the questions about what we wanted out of our workforce. But there's some really interesting combinations of those things, of like, you know, yeah, mapping a world for AIS, ais that can understand it, that could ask questions in it, that can go probe it, that can give you advice on what to do in it. All those things are very close for good and for bad.

Trevor Freeman 39:03

You kind of touched on my next question here is, how do we make sure this is all in the for good or mostly in the for good category, and not the for bad category you talk in one of the papers that you wrote about, you know, AI and augmented reality in particular, really expanding the attack surface for malicious actors. So we're creating more opportunities for whatever the case may be, if it's hacking or if it's malware, or if it's just, you know, people that are up to nefarious things. How do we protect against that? How do we make sure that our systems are safe that the users of our system. So in our case, our customers, their data is safe, their the grid is safe. How do we make sure that?

Greg Lindsay 39:49

Well, the very short version is, whatever we're spending on cybersecurity, we're not spending enough. And honestly, like everybody who is no longer learning to code, because we can be a quad or ChatGPT to do it, I. Is probably there should be a whole campaign to repurpose a big chunk of tech workers into cybersecurity, into locking down these systems, into training ethical systems. There's a lot of work to be done there. But yeah, that's been the theme for you know that I've seen for 10 years. So that paper I mentioned about sort of smart homes, the Internet of Things, and why people would want a smart home? Well, yeah, the reason people were skeptical is because they saw it as basically a giant attack vector. My favorite saying about this is, is, there's a famous Arthur C Clarke quote that you know, any sufficiently advanced technology is magic Tobias Ravel, who works at Arup now does their head of foresight has this great line, any sufficiently advanced hacking will feel like a haunting meaning. If you're in a smart home that's been hacked, it will feel like you're living in a haunted house. Lights will flicker on and off, and systems will turn and go haywire. It'll be like you're living with a possessed house. And that's true of cities or any other systems. So we need to do a lot of work on just sort of like locking that down and securing that data, and that is, you know, we identified, then it has to go all the way up and down the supply chain, like you have to make sure that there is, you know, a chain of custody going back to when components are made, because a lot of the attacks on nest, for example. I mean, you want to take over a Google nest, take it off the wall and screw the back out of it, which is a good thing. It's not that many people are prying open our thermostats, but yeah, if you can get your hands on it, you can do a lot of these systems, and you can do it earlier in the supply chain and sorts of infected pieces and things. So there's a lot to be done there. And then, yeah, and then, yeah, and then there's just a question of, you know, making sure that the AIs are ethically trained and reinforced. And, you know, a few people want to listeners, want to scare themselves. You can go out and read some of the stuff leaking out of anthropic and others and make clot of, you know, models that are trying to hide their own alignments and trying to, like, basically copy themselves. Again, I don't believe that anything things are alive or intelligent, but they exhibit these behaviors as part of the probabilistic that's kind of scary. So there's a lot to be done there. But yeah, we worked on this, the group that I do foresight with Arizona State University threat casting lab. We've done some work for the Secret Service and for NATO and, yeah, there'll be, you know, large scale hackings on infrastructure. Basically the equivalent can be the equivalent can be the equivalent to a weapons of mass destruction attack. We saw how Russia targeted in 2014 the Ukrainian grid and hacked their nuclear plans. This is essential infrastructure more important than ever, giving global geopolitics say the least, so that needs to be under consideration. And I don't know, did I scare you enough yet? What are the things we've talked through here that, say the least about, you know, people being, you know, tricked and incepted by their AI girlfriends, boyfriends. You know people who are trying to AI companions. I can't possibly imagine what could go wrong there.

Trevor Freeman 42:29

I mean, it's just like, you know, I don't know if this is 15 or 20, or maybe even 25 years ago now, like, it requires a whole new level of understanding when we went from a completely analog world to a digital world and living online, and people, I would hope, to some degree, learned to be skeptical of things on the internet and learned that this is that next level. We now need to learn the right way of interacting with this stuff. And as you mentioned, building the sort of ethical code and ethical guidelines into these language models into the AI. Learning is pretty critical for our listeners. We do have a podcast episode on cybersecurity. I encourage you to go listen to it and reassure yourself that, yes, we are thinking about this stuff. And thanks, Greg, you've given us lots more to think about in that area as well. When it comes to again, looking back at utilities and managing the grid, one thing we're going to see, and we've talked a lot about this on the show, is a lot more distributed generation. So we're, you know, the days of just the central, large scale generation, long transmission lines that being the only generation on the grid. Those days are ending. We're going to see more distributed generations, solar panels on roofs, batteries. How does AI help a utility manage those better, interact with those better get more value out of those things?

Greg Lindsay 43:51

I guess that's sort of like an extension of some of the trends I was talking about earlier, which is the notion of, like, being able to model complex systems. I mean, that's effectively it, right, like you've got an increasingly complex grid with complex interplays between it, you know, figuring out how to basically based on real world performance, based on what you're able to determine about where there are correlations and codependencies in the grid, where point where choke points could emerge, where overloading could happen, and then, yeah, basically, sort of building that predictive system to Basically, sort of look for what kind of complex emergent behavior comes out of as you keep adding to it and and, you know, not just, you know, based on, you know, real world behavior, but being able to dial that up to 11, so to speak, and sort of imagine sort of these scenarios, or imagine, you know, what, what sort of long term scenarios look like in terms of, like, what the mix, how the mix changes, how the geography changes, all those sorts of things. So, yeah, I don't know how that plays out in the short term there, but it's this combination, like I'm imagining, you know, all these different components playing SimCity for real, if one will.

Trevor Freeman 44:50

And being able to do it millions and millions and millions of times in a row, to learn every possible iteration and every possible thing that might happen. Very cool. Okay. So last kind of area I want to touch on you did mention this at the beginning is the the overall power implications of of AI, of these massive data centers, obviously, at the utility, that's something we are all too keenly aware of. You know, the stat that that I find really interesting is a normal Google Search compared to, let's call it a chat GPT search. That chat GPT search, or decision making, requires 10 times the amount of energy as that just normal, you know, Google Search looking out from a database. Do you see this trend? I don't know if it's a trend. Do you see this continuing like AI is just going to use more power to do its decision making, or will we start to see more efficiencies there? And the data centers will get better at doing what they do with less energy. What is the what does the future look like in that sector?

Greg Lindsay 45:55

All the above. It's more, is more, is more! Is the trend, as far as I can see, and every decision maker who's involved in it. And again, Jensen Wong brought this up at the big Nvidia Conference. That basically he sees the only constraint on this continuing is availability of energy supplies keep it going and South by Southwest. And in some other conversations I've had with bandwidth companies, telcos, like laying 20 lumen technologies, United States is laying 20,000 new miles of fiber optic cables. They've bought 10% of Corning's total fiber optic output for the next couple of years. And their customers are the hyperscalers. They're, they're and they're rewiring the grid. That's why, I think it's interesting. This has something, of course, for thinking about utilities, is, you know, the point to point Internet of packet switching and like laying down these big fiber routes, which is why all the big data centers United States, the majority of them, are in north of them are in Northern Virginia, is because it goes back to the network hub there. Well, lumen is now wiring this like basically this giant fabric, this patchwork, which can connect data center to data center, and AI to AI and cloud to cloud, and creating this entirely new environment of how they are all directly connected to each other through some of this dedicated fiber. And so you can see how this whole pattern is changing. And you know, the same people are telling me that, like, yeah, the where they're going to build this fiber, which they wouldn't tell me exactly where, because it's very tradable, proprietary information, but, um, but it's following the energy supplies. It's following the energy corridors to the American Southwest, where there's solar and wind in Texas, where you can get natural gas, where you can get all these things. It will follow there. And I of course, assume the same is true in Canada as we build out our own sovereign data center capacity for this. So even, like deep seek, for example, you know, which is, of course, the hyper efficient Chinese model that spooked the markets back in January. Like, what do you mean? We don't need a trillion dollars in capex? Well, everyone's quite confident, including again, Jensen Wong and everybody else that, yeah, the more efficient models will increase this usage. That Jevons paradox will play out once again, and we'll see ever more of it. To me, the question is, is like as how it changes? And of course, you know, you know, this is a bubble. Let's, let's, let's be clear, data centers are a bubble, just like railroads in 1840 were a bubble. And there will be a bust, like not everyone's investments will pencil out that infrastructure will remain maybe it'll get cheaper. We find new uses for it, but it will, it will eventually bust at some point and that's what, to me, is interesting about like deep seeking, more efficient models. Is who's going to make the wrong investments in the wrong places at the wrong time? But you know, we will see as it gathers force and agents, as I mentioned. You know, they don't require, as much, you know, these monstrous training runs at City sized data centers. You know, meta wanted to spend $200 billion on a single complex, the open AI, Microsoft, Stargate, $500 billion Oracle's. Larry Ellison said that $100 billion is table stakes, which is just crazy to think about. And, you know, he's permitting three nukes on site. So there you go. I mean, it'll be fascinating to see if we have a new generation of private, private generation, right, like, which is like harkening all the way back to, you know, the early electrical grid and companies creating their own power plants on site, kind of stuff. Nicholas Carr wrote a good book about that one, about how we could see from the early electrical grid how the cloud played out. They played out very similarly. The AI cloud seems to be playing out a bit differently. So, so, yeah, I imagine that as well, but, but, yeah, well, inference happen at the edge. We need to have more distributed generation, because you're gonna have AI agents that are going to be spending more time at the point of request, whether that's a laptop or your phone or a light post or your autonomous vehicle, and it's going to need more of that generation and charging at the edge. That, to me, is the really interesting question. Like, you know, when these current generation models hit their limits, and just like with Moore's law, like, you know, you have to figure out other efficiencies in designing chips or designing AIS, how will that change the relationship to the grid? And I don't think anyone knows quite for sure yet, which is why they're just racing to lock up as many long term contracts as they possibly can just get it all, core to the market.

Trevor Freeman 49:39

Yeah, it's just another example, something that comes up in a lot of different topics that we cover on this show. Everything, obviously, is always related to the energy transition. But the idea that the energy transition is really it's not just changing fuel sources, like we talked about earlier. It's not just going from internal combustion to a battery. It's rethinking the. Relationship with energy, and it's rethinking how we do things. And, yeah, you bring up, like, more private, massive generation to deal with these things. So really, that whole relationship with energy is on scale to change. Greg, this has been a really interesting conversation. I really appreciate it. Lots to pack into this short bit of time here. We always kind of wrap up our conversations with a series of questions to our guests. So I'm going to fire those at you here. And this first one, I'm sure you've got lots of different examples here, so feel free to give more than one. What is a book that you've read that you think everybody should read?

Greg Lindsay 50:35

The first one that comes to mind is actually William Gibson's Neuromancer, which is which gave the world the notion of cyberspace and so many concepts. But I think about it a lot today. William Gibson, Vancouver based author, about how much in that book is something really think about. There is a digital twin in it, an agent called the Dixie flatline. It's like a former program where they cloned a digital twin of him. I've actually met an engineering company, Thornton Thomas Eddie that built a digital twin of one of their former top experts. So like that became real. Of course, the matrix is becoming real the Turing police. Yeah, there's a whole thing in there where there's cops to make sure that AIS don't get smarter. I've been thinking a lot about, do we need Turing police? The EU will probably create them. And so that's something where you know the proof, again, of like science fiction, its ability in world building to really make you think about these implications and help for contingency planning. A lot of foresight experts I work with think about sci fi, and we use sci fi for exactly that reason. So go read some classic cyberpunk, everybody.

Trevor Freeman 51:32

Awesome. So same question. But what's a movie or a show that you think everybody should take a look at?

Greg Lindsay 51:38

I recently watched the watch the matrix with ideas, which is fun to think about, where the villains are, agents that villains are agents. That's funny how that terms come back around. But the other one was thinking about the New Yorker recently read a piece on global demographics and the fact that, you know, globally, less and less children. And it made several references to Alfonso Quons, Children of Men from 2006 which is, sadly, probably the most prescient film of the 21st Century. Again, a classic to watch, about imagining in a world where we don't where you where you lose faith in the future, what happens, and a world that is not having children as a world that's losing faith in its own future. So that's always haunted me.

Trevor Freeman 52:12

It's funny both of those movies. So I've got kids as they get, you know, a little bit older, a little bit older, we start introducing more and more movies. And I've got this list of movies that are just, you know, impactful for my own adolescent years and growing up. And both matrix and Children of Men are on that list of really good movies that I just need my kids to get a little bit older, and then I'm excited to watch with them. If someone offered you a free round trip flight anywhere in the world, where would you go?

Greg Lindsay 52:40

I would go to Venice, Italy for the Architecture Biennale, which I will be on a plane in May, going to anyway. And the theme this year is intelligence, artificial, natural and collective. So it should be interesting to see the world's brightest architects. Let's see what we got. But yeah, Venice, every time, my favorite city in the world.

Trevor Freeman 52:58

Yeah, it's pretty wonderful. Who is someone that you admire?

Greg Lindsay 53:01

Great question. I was thinking. I was thinking about Emory Levin's earlier with this one too. I think about him, because Emery Levin's in, like, energy discourse. Just to be thematic about this is, I think, all the time about his essay from, I think 1976 in foreign affairs, the hard and soft path, I think he called them, which is the idea that, yeah, that in the 70s, before I was born imagining that we could take the soft path of renewables and infinite energy abundance, or we take the hard path of fossil fuels, and we are still taking the hard path globally. It feels like back in the United States, have definitely taken the hard path. So I think about a lot because he was the first one to really think about energy, particularly in the 70s, such a dark decade for energy, from a framing of abundance, and that we got this and, you know, that we simply had to make choices policy and otherwise. And you know, I guess I'm hopeful that we can still make those choices, but, but, yeah, he was such an early and bright voice in this entire discourse.

Trevor Freeman 53:52

And finally, what's something about the energy sector or its future that you're really excited about?

Greg Lindsay 53:58

Uh, when it comes to energy, I guess I'm really excited. I hadn't thought about it this way, but I guess I'm kind of excited the idea that nuclear is back on the table. I grew up in Illinois, and, like Illinois, I think, is one of the highest state penetrations of nuclear plants. Like nuclear cooling towers were something that I saw growing up. Obviously, you know, nuclear scares people. When you have, you know, industrial accidents that could last a million years. It's kind of scary, but, but, yeah, it's interesting to see that, like all those advances on in theory, thorium reactors and modular reactors are finding purchase with all these tech company hyperscalers that are willing to throw money at the problem. So, so yeah, so I think you know, anything that keeps more coal and natural gas from coming online and fits clean energy clean electrons, let's do it.

Trevor Freeman 54:39

Yeah, I totally agree, Greg. Thanks very much for your time. Appreciate it. This has been a great conversation.

Greg Lindsay 54:44

Thanks for having a lot of fun!

Trevor Freeman 54:46

Awesome. Take care. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of the think energy podcast. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and it would be great if you could leave us a review. It really helps to spread the word. As always, we would love to hear from. You, whether it's feedback comments or an idea for a show or a guest, you can always reach us at [email protected].