This week’s discussion centers on a Federal Reserve on pause but increasingly divided, as inflation data and geopolitical risks complicate the policy path. The team reviews a stronger‑than‑expected GDP reading, a PCE inflation uptick driven by energy prices, and what multiple FOMC dissents signal about rate expectations for the rest of 2026.  They also cover Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair and what it means for the FOMC. They also examine how resilient earnings growth, particularly tied to AI investment and capital spending, is shaping market leadership. The conversation frames what these dynamics mean for positioning as investors balance policy uncertainty, elevated inflation risks, and continued pockets of economic strength.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:45 — Weekly data check: claims, GDP, and March PCE inflation

04:15 — FOMC recap and implications of multiple dissents

09:20 — Rate cut expectations and the outlook for 2026 policy

16:20 — Earnings strength and the impact of AI spending

23:00 — Geopolitics, energy prices, and late‑cycle risks

Additional Resources

Read Now: Key Questions: Is Kevin Warsh About to Change the Fed – Not Just Rates?

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