Thoughts On Money [TOM]

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4jJ3yGu

On the Thoughts on Money (TOM) podcast, host Blaine Carver with Brett Bonecutter and guest Joel Pietila (Associate Director of Planning) discuss Joel’s article, “The Utility of Money,” exploring how financial planning should account for personal values beyond maximizing wealth. Yoel shares a pumpkin patch story to illustrate choosing meaningful “kairos” moments over quantitative “chronos” measures, and the group applies this to retirement decisions where clients often struggle to shift from saving to spending. They cover diminishing marginal utility, noting that the same dollar amount matters far more to someone with little than to someone with substantial assets, and discuss “moving the inheritance forward” via annual gifts, trusts, matching savings, intra-family loans, and charitable giving to see impact during life. They also highlight peace-of-mind choices like paying off a mortgage and encourage clients with plan flexibility to spend more in their “go-go” years.

00:00 Welcome and Introductions

00:31 Utility of Money Story

04:07 Chronos Versus Kairos

06:42 Switching From Saving

09:59 Diminishing Marginal Utility

14:49 Gifting and Legacy Planning

19:28 Moving Inheritance Forward

23:51 Teaching Money Values

27:34 Give While Living

30:49 Spending and Peace of Mind

34:00 Wrap Up and Takeaways

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4ywqFrr

Host Blaine Carver talks with Brett Bonecutter and financial planner Matt Gregory about Gregory’s article, “What Could The Election Actually Do To Your Money?” Gregory says election anxiety commonly shows up in planning as questions about taxes, inflation, Social Security, healthcare, investing, and ultimately whether clients will be okay, and that advisors should uncover the “question under the question.” They discuss how fear is amplified by media, and how planners can make concerns actionable by stress testing assumptions (inflation, healthcare, taxes, Social Security benefits, spending) rather than making knee-jerk portfolio changes. The Bahnsen Group currently uses 2.5% long-term inflation and 5.5% healthcare inflation, revisiting assumptions annually. They note markets historically perform well across political outcomes, and that tax planning (including Roth conversions) should consider bracket changes and Medicare impacts. The episode ends with tentative election predictions and a reminder to focus on 20-year plans.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:50 Why This Article

04:54 Questions Under Questions

07:13 Fear and Media Noise

09:32 Inflation Stress Tests

13:59 Do Elections Move Inflation

17:22 Taxes and Roth Moves

23:47 Social Security Reality

29:37 Investing Around Elections

35:38 Should You Change Anything

37:50 Stress Testing Metaphor

40:10 Predictions and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4s5VJwC

Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts on Money podcast with Brett Bonecutter and Blaine Carver (“Joe Bob”) to explain bond yields and interest rates through a scripted “table read.” They frame interest rates as the price of money, shaped by supply and demand, time, risk, and expectations for inflation and growth. The discussion distinguishes loans from bonds, explains why investors buy Treasuries, and clarifies maturities, the yield curve, and why the 10-year note is a benchmark influencing mortgage pricing via mortgage-backed securities. They note Treasury rates are set by auctions and that the Fed targets the overnight federal funds rate, mainly affecting the short end while markets price longer maturities. They address how rising yields lower existing bond prices, why predicting rate moves is difficult, why recent yield spikes may relate to bond supply (including corporate issuance tied to AI), and how current yields improve forward bond return prospects despite recent declines.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

01:00 Table Read Begins

01:17 Price of Money Basics

03:03 Loans vs Bonds

04:49 Treasuries and Yield Curve

07:10 Who Sets Rates

08:39 Investor Takeaways

10:06 Fade Out and Debrief

10:57 Why This Article

13:46 Why Bonds Move

17:12 Fed vs Market Dynamics

26:40 Bond Portfolio Math

30:16 Opportunities and Levers

33:34 Fed Signals Explained

37:43 Wrap Up and Call to Action

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4AXYRyJ

Trevor Cummings hosts the Thought Someday podcast with Brett Bonecutter and Blaine Carver to discuss his blog post, “The Cost of Paying Later,” focusing on the cultural shift toward “buy now, pay later” financing from firms like Affirm and Klarna for everything from small purchases to luxury items. They argue people fixate on monthly payments rather than total cost, making commitments easier and leading to “death by a thousand cuts” as multiple payments and subscriptions accumulate, especially with frictionless tools like Apple Pay. They note interest rates can range from 0% to 30% and question disclosure, delinquency, and why consumers choose these services over credit cards. Trevor emphasizes the importance of counting the full cost and trade-offs, balancing cash flow versus balance sheet, and recognizing how financing and easy credit can distort behavior and reduce flexibility over time.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:17 Buy Now Pay Later Boom

02:56 Monthly Payment Mindset

06:07 Keeping Up and Comfort Creep

09:02 Rates and Disclosure Questions

10:36 Layaway Versus Instant Credit

12:19 Is It Dangerous Socially

16:50 Why Not Use Credit Cards

19:38 Frictionless Spending Traps

20:53 Textbook Math Versus Behavior

24:49 Should Versus Could Afford

30:15 Balance Sheet Versus Cash Flow

37:32 Opportunity Cost and Compounding

39:58 Practical Takeaways and Wrap

41:44 Final Thoughts and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hpwdik

Brett Bonecutter hosts “Thoughts on Money” solo to discuss “Profits: Vice or Virtue?” inspired by David Bahnsen’s book and moral defense of profit amid renewed cultural debate over socialism versus capitalism. He argues free markets are not defensible because greed is useful, but because properly earned profit rewards value creation and serving others. He critiques conservatives for leaning on “greed is good” and notes socialists frame their case as empathy and equity versus capitalist greed, viewing free markets as manipulated and profit as exploitation. Bonecutter concedes profit can come from fraud, coercion, cronyism, or lack of competition, but defines virtuous profit as evidence of transformational value through voluntary exchange (illustrated with toothpaste). He says profit-seeking drives progress, competition and cooperation coexist, profit-and-loss signals resource allocation, profits act as a wealth engine, and this system best expands opportunity and addresses poverty without promising utopia.

00:00 Solo Intro and Theme

01:48 Thesis Profit as Virtue

03:27 Moral Framing of Socialism

05:51 Why Greed Argument Fails

10:12 Socialist View of Profit

15:19 Five Points Overview

15:24 Profit Creates Value

21:00 Progress Through Competition

28:04 Profit and Loss Signals

30:46 Wealth Engine Explained

32:43 Profits and Poverty

34:58 Closing Takeaways

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hc81Qi

Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts on Money (TOM) podcast with blog author Blaine Carver discussing why investors underperform market returns due to behavioral mistakes. Carver cites Morningstar data showing a 2016–2025 S&P 500 annual return of 9.9% versus 8.7% for the average dollar in U.S. mutual funds/ETFs, and a Dalbar 30-year study ending 2021 showing equity investors earning 7.13% versus 10.65% for the S&P 500, attributing the gap largely to poor timing decisions and performance chasing. They explain time-weighted versus dollar-weighted returns, then outline four biases: recency bias, prospect theory/loss aversion, herd bias, and self-deception. Carver suggests investors know their tendencies, follow a disciplined philosophy—highlighting dividend growth investing—and avoid interrupting compounding, and argues advisors can help reduce emotional errors and opportunity costs.

00:00 Welcome and Topic Setup

00:30 Defining the Behavior Gap

02:44 Time vs Dollar Returns

05:08 Bias One Recency Chasing

06:22 Heuristics and Randomness

11:22 Narratives Fuel Bubbles

14:06 Bias Two Loss Aversion

19:43 Bias Three Herd Mentality

25:00 Bias Four Self Deception

25:42 Self Deception Explained

26:08 Know Your Conflict Style

27:38 Marriage Mirrors Behavior

28:51 Specialists Beat Ego

30:51 Advisor Trust Framework

32:38 Investor Game Film

34:06 Time Horizon Advantage

36:12 Dividend Growth Discipline

37:48 Hulk Smash Mistakes

40:23 Dividends Over Drawdowns

42:52 Transparency And Report Cards

44:33 Why Hire An Advisor

46:55 Never Interrupt Compounding

47:38 Final Wrap And Call To Action

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4AhW7vM

Trevor Cummings hosts Thoughts on Money with Brett Bonecutter and analyst Ishan Chhabra to discuss Chhabra’s article “Good Company, Bad Stock,” focusing on how a strong business can still be a poor investment when purchased at the wrong valuation. Using a Red Vines analogy and Walmart from 2000–2011, they show how high expectations (Walmart at ~44x earnings) can lead to weak stock returns (~1% annual) despite strong fundamentals (EPS compounding ~12%). They explain valuation tools—primarily P/E, but also EV/EBITDA, price to free cash flow, sales, and book—plus ways to benchmark multiples against a company’s history, competitors, and sector. The conversation covers earnings quality, share dilution, market “darlings,” value traps, and a quadrant framework balancing business quality vs expectation risk, with emphasis on dividend yield, payout ratios, dividend growth, capital allocation, and management credibility.

00:00 Podcast Introductions

00:20 Good Company Bad Stock

01:16 Candy Price Analogy

02:50 Walmart Valuation Lesson

04:58 Business vs Stock Results

06:06 Valuation Metrics Overview

07:28 Earnings Quality and PEs

11:19 Benchmarking Valuations

13:30 Market Sentiment and Re-Ratings

16:44 Client Psychology and Darlings

21:47 Treadmill and Value Traps

23:04 Restaurant Popularity Analogy

23:20 Popularity Changes Rules

23:52 Risk Quadrant Framework

25:11 High Quality Low Expectations

26:16 Dividend Due Diligence Metrics

28:32 Reading Management Signals

32:38 Explaining Valuation Simply

39:46 Cheap for a Reason

45:15 Wrap Up and Listener Call

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost: https://bahnsen.co/4A77CpN

Trevor Cummings hosts a Thoughts on Money podcast discussion with Blaine Carver and Brett Bonecutter on how modern environments—especially social media algorithms and targeted ads—shape financial decisions, using the Stanford Prison Experiment as an example of behavioral influence. They critique an Instagram “real estate guru” video promoting “regular rich” via two rules: pay off all debt (including a mortgage) and save $2 million, assuming an easy 10% return to generate $200,000 annually. The team argues this advice can be dangerous due to liquidity loss, opportunity cost, tax implications, sequence-of-returns risk, inflation, and unrealistic assumptions about consistent returns and diversification. They compare such simplified messaging to Dave Ramsey’s action-oriented psychology, discuss shortened attention spans, and warn that AI and social media provide influence without accountability, urging caution and personalized advice.

00:00 Welcome to TOM

00:30 Instagram Advice Risks

00:57 Targeted Ads and Listening

02:04 Stanford Prison Experiment

05:34 Social Media Influence

07:35 Doomscrolling Explained

07:48 Why I Quit Social Media

09:45 Influencers Without Accountability

12:04 Regular Rich Video Breakdown

14:50 Adjacent Truths in Finance

17:57 Dave Ramsey Comparison

19:26 Short Attention Span Dilemma

21:14 How to Assess Advice

23:19 Two Themes and Debt Rule

24:01 Mortgage Payoff Tradeoffs

24:59 Liquidity And Emergencies

26:00 Opportunity Cost Math

27:30 Tax Deductions And Incentives

27:51 The 10 Percent Return Myth

28:40 Sequence Risk And Inflation

29:58 Diversification And Trust Deeds

31:56 AI Advice And Prompts

36:29 AI In Client Relationships

44:22 Accountability And Role Models

46:59 Wrap Up And Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4xsigpq

On the Thoughts on Money podcast, Trevor Cummings, Sarah Leitzke, and Blaine Carver discuss Sarah’s blog post inspired by “pearl party” videos and multi-level marketing, using them to frame a key consumer question in insurance: “How are you paid?” They outline three compensation models for people selling insurance: recruiting-focused, multi-level marketing-style setups; captive agents tied primarily to one carrier’s products; and broker-style access to many carriers. The group emphasizes that incentives drive behavior and product recommendations, notes that being paid is not inherently bad but should be transparent, and offers trust cues such as avoiding high-pressure sales tactics, false urgency, vague compensation explanations, and one-size-fits-all solutions while prioritizing client goals and alignment.

00:00 Welcome to TOM

00:22 Pearl Party Hook

01:28 Why We Watch

03:19 MLM Cautionary Tale

04:23 Follow the Money

07:05 Three Pay Models

07:32 Recruiter Agent Model

10:57 Lifestyle Pitch Videos

14:32 Captive Agent Explained

18:49 Open Architecture Benefits

29:10 Trust and Red Flags

35:06 Broker Model Options

39:00 Wrap Up and Contact

Links mentioned in this episode:

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/46j36GM

Host Blaine Carver interviews Brett Bonecutter about his article “Is Gold a Good Investment?” prompted by Rand Paul’s Fort Knox visit and frequent client questions about gold. They outline why investors are drawn to gold—perceived capital preservation, durability/rarity, mistrust of fiat currency and debasement, de-dollarization, and crisis “shock absorber” appeal—while noting gold’s short-term volatility. They discuss gold’s valuation challenge as a non-productive asset with demand largely driven by its role as a proxy for money, and argue gold tracks M2 money supply more than CPI inflation (World Gold Council cites only 16% of gold price variation explained by CPI). Historical math shows gold can outperform in certain periods, but long-term equities vastly outpace it (e.g., $100 in 1928 to 2025: gold ~$21k vs S&P with reinvested dividends ~$1.16M). They conclude heavy gold allocations generally don’t fit most goals due to opportunity cost, with only small allocations potentially tolerable.

00:00 Is Gold Worth It

00:58 Fort Knox Bond Story

03:45 Why Clients Ask

04:50 Gold Bug Intuitions

06:18 Capital Preservation Evidence

09:19 Durability Debasement De-Dollarization

12:12 Crisis Insurance Debate

14:24 Valuation Conundrum

19:02 Speculation And ETFs

22:53 M2 Versus Inflation

26:31 Just Do The Math

33:04 Volatility Correlation Costs

38:27 So Is Gold Good

44:53 Wrap Up And Outro

Links mentioned in this episode: