Too Close To Call Podcast

With just over three weeks from Election Day 2024, Too Close To Call will be entering the sprint with a busier posting schedule, offering razor-sharp analysis and prescient reporting on the key questions and data that will determine the HarrisVTrump contest.

And as always, probing the conventional wisdom.

Tonight’s video post — which raises the question of whether Arizona and it’s 11 electoral votes are falling out of reach for Kamala Harris — is free to all subscribers. But future hits will be paywalled for the paid family.

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“But if the New York Times, the best pollster in the business, has Kamala Harris down by five points... My question is, will you see Democrats draw back in Arizona at all?

In 2020, Joe Biden won that state by three tenths of a point …He only won it by 10,457 votes…Arizona is, I think, the toughest battleground state for Kamala Harris to hold. And we we will be watching if Kamala Harris decides to cut loose there or if there's any other movement.

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The opening month of the year was awful for the journalism industry. The 2024 presidential campaign — media’s quadrennial premiere event — also kicked off with a whimper. Dave talks about how the twin slumps are intrinsically linked and what declining public interest in both means for the political mediasphere going forward.

Also, has anyone else felt sc…

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I began formulating this #Rant with the premise that Nikki Haley would very likely beat Joe Biden in a 2024 general election match-up. But then I thought through all four quarters of what 2024 will look like if Haley — or any Republican — was able to upend Trump in the primary. Fair and square.

And that scenario smells like a boatload of chaos — and an …

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Just because an interview is conducted, there’s no obligation to ever run it. Just because off-the-record groundrules are requested, there’s no requirement to agree to them. In this latest #Rant, Dave talks about recent tussles with political flacks from Capitol Hill to the campaign trail — and offers predictions on Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections.

It’…

Ron DeSantis dismissed Republican rivals Nikki Haley and Mike Pence on Monday as candidates who won’t be able to win the persuadable pool of GOP presidential primary voters necessary to defeat Donald Trump, according to audio obtained by McClatchyDC and published, in part, above on #TooCloseToCall.

Speaking to about 30 members of the Virgin Islands GOP committee virtually, DeSantis said his campaign estimates that 20% of the 2024 Republican electorate will definitely vote for the former president, with 35% having ruled Trump out completely. That leaves about 45% of Republican voters who are still considering their options.

“They’re not going to vote for people like Pence and Haley. I respect them, they’re just not,” DeSantis told the Virgin Islands group, referring to voters in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. “They will vote for me, because I have a record of being a very strong leader.”

Continue reading the full piece on The Miami-Herald.

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Do you tip before or after tax?

If there’s a 7% service fee tagged onto your bill, how much are you tipping?

Where did all the servers go?

And where can I get the best plate of rigatoni in Washington, D.C.

Washingtonian Magazine’s Jessica Sidman joins the podcast to answer these questions and more in the increasingly tension-riddled battle between restauran…

Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat from Massachusetts and a combat veteran, has established a uncompromisingly hawkish position regarding U.S. aid to Ukraine’s war with Russia.

“We have every moral obligation in the world to stand with Ukrainians — no matter how long it takes,” Moulton tells me in the latest #TooCloseToCall podcast.

In addition to Ukraine Q&A, Dave dives into the possibility of a government shutdown, the impeachment inquiry centering around the president and his son’s business dealings and attempts to measure Moulton’s enthusiasm (get pumped!) for Biden 2024.

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Dave lays out the three most likely scenarios to play out regarding Mitch McConnell’s deteriorating health, based on reporting he conducted this week for McClatchyDC.

He also breaks down the top contenders to succeed McConnell in Kentucky if Republican Daniel Cameron wins this November’s governor’s race — or not. And then Dave places odds on the next Sen…

The body language. The smirking. The rapid-fire quips.

Vivek Ramaswamy was certainly the story of Wednesday night’s Republican presidential primary debate … but did his hyper-aggressive posture do him more harm than good in the long-run? Or was his fiery approach just what the GOP base is looking for in 2024?

Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan, who was on the ground in Milwaukee, talks through some theories with Dave.

This is a free podcast … but if you’d like access to all #TooCloseToCall content, including more personal, no-holds-barred #Rants, consider upgrading to paid.

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Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign has tried to cling to the impression that the fight for the Republican nomination remains a two-man race.

But with his campaign shirking in size and strength and falling further behind front-runner Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy is moving expeditiously to stamp out that impression for good.

The 37-year-old biotech investor is beginning to make an argument similar to that of the Florida governor: It’s a two-man race, but it’s he who is emerging as the No. 2 candidate to the former president.

“I think functionally I am in second place,” Ramaswamy told McClatchyDC in an interview. “I’m in second place by a wide margin in the metric that matters.”

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