Transmission

Germany's battery storage market is booming - but a saturation crunch is coming, and most investors aren't ready for it. The question is which revenue streams hold up, and which collapse the way they did in GB, Texas, and Australia.

Ed sits down with Till Stehr, German Research Analyst, and Cosima from the Advisory Services Team at Modo Energy, to map the real structural drivers, and risks, behind German BESS returns.

They cover:

• Why German battery saturation is closer than the market thinks - FCR is already saturated, with aFRR close behind.

• Why German battery revenues near €200,000/MW/year for a two-hour system are more about timing than structure.

• What makes Germany's intraday market the most liquid in Europe and the €1,000+/MWh spikes batteries feed on.

• How flexible connection agreements are quietly reshaping returns, from ramp rates to export caps.

• What German grid fees look like after the 2029 exemption and why dynamic fees are locational pricing through the back door.

Got a question about the German BESS market? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=till_cosima&utm_content=ko_signup

Chapters:

00:00 – An Introduction tGermany's Battery Storage Market

00:50 – What Investors Get Wrong About Germany

02:33 – Why Ancillary Services Saturate Fast

03:47 – German Battery Revenues: €200k per MW

05:24 – Structural Value: Solar and Intraday Trading

06:30 – Redispatch Costs and Locational Pricing

08:04 – FCR and aFRR Explained

09:37 – Battery Saturation and the Overbuilt Ratio

14:08 – Europe's Most Liquid Intraday Market

18:50 – Battery Interconnection: Friend or Foe?

21:52 – Negative Power Prices in Germany

25:36 – Flexible Connection Agreements Explained

32:19 – Battery Inertia and Grid-Forming Inverters

35:53 – German Grid Fees: What's Announced

40:37 – Contrarian Views: DSOs and Locational Pricing

Germany's battery storage market is booming - but a saturation crunch is coming, and most investors aren't ready for it. The question is which revenue streams hold up, and which collapse the way they did in GB, Texas, and Australia.

Ed sits down with Till Stehr, German Research Analyst, and Cosima from the Advisory Services Team at Modo Energy, to map the real structural drivers, and risks, behind German BESS returns.

They cover:

• Why German battery saturation is closer than the market thinks - FCR is already saturated, with aFRR close behind.

• Why German battery revenues near €200,000/MW/year for a two-hour system are more about timing than structure.

• What makes Germany's intraday market the most liquid in Europe and the €1,000+/MWh spikes batteries feed on.

• How flexible connection agreements are quietly reshaping returns, from ramp rates to export caps.

• What German grid fees look like after the 2029 exemption and why dynamic fees are locational pricing through the back door.

Got a question about the German BESS market? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=till_cosima&utm_content=ko_signup

Chapters:

00:00 – An Introduction tGermany's Battery Storage Market

00:50 – What Investors Get Wrong About Germany

02:33 – Why Ancillary Services Saturate Fast

03:47 – German Battery Revenues: €200k per MW

05:24 – Structural Value: Solar and Intraday Trading

06:30 – Redispatch Costs and Locational Pricing

08:04 – FCR and aFRR Explained

09:37 – Battery Saturation and the Overbuilt Ratio

14:08 – Europe's Most Liquid Intraday Market

18:50 – Battery Interconnection: Friend or Foe?

21:52 – Negative Power Prices in Germany

25:36 – Flexible Connection Agreements Explained

32:19 – Battery Inertia and Grid-Forming Inverters

35:53 – German Grid Fees: What's Announced

40:37 – Contrarian Views: DSOs and Locational Pricing

Most battery revenue projections stop at the day-ahead auction. But the optimisers running multi-gigawatt BESS portfolios argue that's where the money is being left on the table - re-trading a battery through intraday, balancing, and ancillary services can add 50% or more to revenue, and battery offtake structures like floors, tolls, and swaps only make sense once you understand how that value actually gets captured.

In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Brian Lonn, Head of UK Flexibility at Statkraft, to break down how a multi-gigawatt battery optimisation desk actually trades batteries and the offtake structures it offers on top.

They cover:

• How battery re-trading works in practice.
• How Statkraft scaled its GB flex portfolio from 22MW of intraday-active battery volume to ~4.5GW under contract and why this scale is the precondition for offering offtake at all.
• Why the battery optimisation market could consolidate and what that means for smaller optimisers and asset owners.
• How battery floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps differ in tenor and purpose, with a working £/MW ballpark for each on a 2-hour battery.
• Brian's contrarian view on Clean Power 2030: why the real question for the GB power system is megawatt-hours, not megawatts.

Want sharper answers on battery storage markets? Ko is Modo Energy's AI analyst, built on our underlying data and research. Ask Ko anything: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=brian_lonn&utm_content=ko_signup

Read the companion article: [COMPANION ARTICLE URL — TBC]

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 What everyone gets wrong about battery asset optimisation

05:14 Statkraft's GB flex portfolio — scaling to 4.5GW

07:24 Inside a battery trading desk — the operational reality

10:02 Re-trading explained — and the £100 to £150 worked example

16:49 How algorithmic intraday battery trading has evolved

19:50 Re-trading uplift — 50%+ over day-ahead-only battery revenue

22:14 The balancing mechanism and NESO's role in battery dispatch

29:58 Battery offtake structures — floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps

37:35 Co-location — solar and battery storage in the GB market

45:36 How to break into battery asset optimisation and energy trading

49:04 Brian's contrarian view — megawatts vs megawatt-hours

50:03 Why battery augmentation matters for Clean Power 2030

Music licensed via Artlist.

Most battery revenue projections stop at the day-ahead auction. But the optimisers running multi-gigawatt BESS portfolios argue that's where the money is being left on the table - re-trading a battery through intraday, balancing, and ancillary services can add 50% or more to revenue, and battery offtake structures like floors, tolls, and swaps only make sense once you understand how that value actually gets captured.

In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Brian Lonn, Head of UK Flexibility at Statkraft, to break down how a multi-gigawatt battery optimisation desk actually trades batteries and the offtake structures it offers on top.

They cover:

• How battery re-trading works in practice.
• How Statkraft scaled its GB flex portfolio from 22MW of intraday-active battery volume to ~4.5GW under contract and why this scale is the precondition for offering offtake at all.
• Why the battery optimisation market could consolidate and what that means for smaller optimisers and asset owners.
• How battery floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps differ in tenor and purpose, with a working £/MW ballpark for each on a 2-hour battery.
• Brian's contrarian view on Clean Power 2030: why the real question for the GB power system is megawatt-hours, not megawatts.

Want sharper answers on battery storage markets? Ko is Modo Energy's AI analyst, built on our underlying data and research. Ask Ko anything: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=brian_lonn&utm_content=ko_signup

Read the companion article: [COMPANION ARTICLE URL — TBC]

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 What everyone gets wrong about battery asset optimisation

05:14 Statkraft's GB flex portfolio — scaling to 4.5GW

07:24 Inside a battery trading desk — the operational reality

10:02 Re-trading explained — and the £100 to £150 worked example

16:49 How algorithmic intraday battery trading has evolved

19:50 Re-trading uplift — 50%+ over day-ahead-only battery revenue

22:14 The balancing mechanism and NESO's role in battery dispatch

29:58 Battery offtake structures — floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps

37:35 Co-location — solar and battery storage in the GB market

45:36 How to break into battery asset optimisation and energy trading

49:04 Brian's contrarian view — megawatts vs megawatt-hours

50:03 Why battery augmentation matters for Clean Power 2030

Music licensed via Artlist.

The scope of the National Energy System Operator - or NESO - has expanded from running the electricity system to planning Britain's whole energy system across electricity, gas and hydrogen, all while delivering connections reform and steering toward Clean Power 2030. That transformation is reshaping everything from how Britain plans its grid 20 years out to how it keeps the lights on tonight.

Ed Porter is joined by Kayte O'Neill, Chief Operating Officer at the National Energy System Operator (NESO), for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest changes in the GB power market: grid connections reform, the battery storage queue, zero-carbon grid operation, and the next wave of electricity market design.

They cover:

• Connections reform and the UK grid queue — how NESO has cut the 800GW queue down to a deliverable pipeline and what Gate 2 means for developers over the next 12 months.
• The battery storage connections queue and how NESO is thinking about attrition, bay sharing and co-location.
• Zero-carbon operation of the GB grid and why gas plants still run on windy, sunny days (stability services, inertia, grid-forming inverters)
• NESO's expanded whole-system role - strategic planning across electricity, gas and hydrogen, and the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)
• Reformed National Pricing, data centre demand connections, AI in the control room, and the £40bn/year investment unlock at stake.

Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI energy analyst, your questions on UK grid operations and BESS markets: Sign up here

Transcript available here

Hosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

• 00:00 - Intro: what people get wrong about NESO
• 04:15 - NESO's new role in gas security of supply
• 05:49 - The summer outlook and GB's low-demand operability problem
• 07:48 - Why gas still runs on the GB grid on windy, sunny days
• 09:49 - Stability services and the path to zero-carbon grid operation
• 11:03 - The 97.7% zero-carbon record on 1 April 2025
• 12:40 - Stability pathfinders, inertia markets and grid-forming inverters
• 17:04 - The winter challenge: gigawatts vs terawatt-hours
• 21:33 - Connections reform: from 800GW to a deliverable grid
• 23:54 - What connections reform means for developers next
• 26:01 - The skilled-labour bottleneck behind grid build-out
• 30:32 - Battery queue attrition and the BESS oversupply problem
• 33:51 - The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)
• 38:59 - Co-location and bay sharing: the unfinished reform
• 44:35 - Reformed National Pricing and GB electricity market reform
• 49:13 - Data, digital and AI in the NESO control room
• 51:44 - The 2026 Operability Strategy Report and Markets Roadmap
• 52:24 - A contrarian case for connections reform

Music licensed via Artlist.

The scope of the National Energy System Operator - or NESO - has expanded from running the electricity system to planning Britain's whole energy system across electricity, gas and hydrogen, all while delivering connections reform and steering toward Clean Power 2030. That transformation is reshaping everything from how Britain plans its grid 20 years out to how it keeps the lights on tonight.

Ed Porter is joined by Kayte O'Neill, Chief Operating Officer at the National Energy System Operator (NESO), for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest changes in the GB power market: grid connections reform, the battery storage queue, zero-carbon grid operation, and the next wave of electricity market design.

They cover:

• Connections reform and the UK grid queue — how NESO has cut the 800GW queue down to a deliverable pipeline and what Gate 2 means for developers over the next 12 months.
• The battery storage connections queue and how NESO is thinking about attrition, bay sharing and co-location.
• Zero-carbon operation of the GB grid and why gas plants still run on windy, sunny days (stability services, inertia, grid-forming inverters)
• NESO's expanded whole-system role - strategic planning across electricity, gas and hydrogen, and the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)
• Reformed National Pricing, data centre demand connections, AI in the control room, and the £40bn/year investment unlock at stake.

Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI energy analyst, your questions on UK grid operations and BESS markets: Sign up here

Transcript available here

Hosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

• 00:00 - Intro: what people get wrong about NESO
• 04:15 - NESO's new role in gas security of supply
• 05:49 - The summer outlook and GB's low-demand operability problem
• 07:48 - Why gas still runs on the GB grid on windy, sunny days
• 09:49 - Stability services and the path to zero-carbon grid operation
• 11:03 - The 97.7% zero-carbon record on 1 April 2025
• 12:40 - Stability pathfinders, inertia markets and grid-forming inverters
• 17:04 - The winter challenge: gigawatts vs terawatt-hours
• 21:33 - Connections reform: from 800GW to a deliverable grid
• 23:54 - What connections reform means for developers next
• 26:01 - The skilled-labour bottleneck behind grid build-out
• 30:32 - Battery queue attrition and the BESS oversupply problem
• 33:51 - The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)
• 38:59 - Co-location and bay sharing: the unfinished reform
• 44:35 - Reformed National Pricing and GB electricity market reform
• 49:13 - Data, digital and AI in the NESO control room
• 51:44 - The 2026 Operability Strategy Report and Markets Roadmap
• 52:24 - A contrarian case for connections reform

Music licensed via Artlist.

Three years ago, the best price for a ready-to-build solar project in Spain was €200,000 per megawatt — today it is €50,000. Batteries have moved the opposite way, with ready-to-build prices climbing to around €100,000 per megawatt and a 30GW pipeline now stacking up behind them.

Ed Porter sits down with Carmen Izquierdo Serrano, founder of nTeaser, the renewable energy marketplace where many of Spain's BESS, solar, and co-located deals are transacting, to unpack what those numbers actually mean for investors entering the Spanish power market and how the post-blackout urgency, and bottlenecks in financing and labour will shape who wins the next phase of Spain's energy transition

They cover:

• Why Spanish solar ready-to-build prices have collapsed from €200,000 to €50,000 per megawatt while battery prices have climbed to ~€100,000 per megawatt in the space of three years
• How the 30GW Spain BESS pipeline stacks up against the ~3.5GW expected to be operating by 2030, and why Carmen thinks that operating-asset forecast is conservative
• Where the real bottleneck is for delivery - not developers or permits, but bank financing and the skilled labour needed to construct the projects
• Why Italy's BESS market has slowed after the first MACSE auction while Spain has accelerated, and what that means for capital allocation across Southern Europe.
• How buyer expectations on arbitrage revenues are likely to be cannibalised as more batteries enter the market, and which revenue streams banks will actually finance against

Want to go deeper on Spanish BESS revenues? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, can walk you through asset-specific forecasts: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=carmen_izquierdo&utm_content=ko_signup

Chapters:

0:00 - Spain solar prices crashed from €200K to €50K per MW

1:10 - Why the Spain BESS market is misunderstood

2:35 - Spain's 30GW battery storage pipeline explained

3:25 - Inside nTeaser: Spain's renewable energy M&A platform

5:00 - Is the 3.5GW Spain battery forecast for 2030 too low?

7:50 - Spain BESS bottlenecks: bank financing and labour

10:00 - Who is buying Spanish battery projects in 2026

12:50 - Spain vs Italy BESS: the MACSE auction setback

15:00 - Data centres and behind-the-meter co-location in Spain

18:00 - When Spain battery projects become bankable

19:30 - Spain capacity market timing and revenue impact

20:30 - BESS arbitrage cannibalisation and revenue stacking

21:45 - Poland, Romania, and BESS expansion across Europe

23:30 - How nTeaser is changing European renewables M&A

Transmission is a Modo Energy podcast hosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Three years ago, the best price for a ready-to-build solar project in Spain was €200,000 per megawatt — today it is €50,000. Batteries have moved the opposite way, with ready-to-build prices climbing to around €100,000 per megawatt and a 30GW pipeline now stacking up behind them.

Ed Porter sits down with Carmen Izquierdo Serrano, founder of nTeaser, the renewable energy marketplace where many of Spain's BESS, solar, and co-located deals are transacting, to unpack what those numbers actually mean for investors entering the Spanish power market and how the post-blackout urgency, and bottlenecks in financing and labour will shape who wins the next phase of Spain's energy transition

They cover:

• Why Spanish solar ready-to-build prices have collapsed from €200,000 to €50,000 per megawatt while battery prices have climbed to ~€100,000 per megawatt in the space of three years
• How the 30GW Spain BESS pipeline stacks up against the ~3.5GW expected to be operating by 2030, and why Carmen thinks that operating-asset forecast is conservative
• Where the real bottleneck is for delivery - not developers or permits, but bank financing and the skilled labour needed to construct the projects
• Why Italy's BESS market has slowed after the first MACSE auction while Spain has accelerated, and what that means for capital allocation across Southern Europe.
• How buyer expectations on arbitrage revenues are likely to be cannibalised as more batteries enter the market, and which revenue streams banks will actually finance against

Want to go deeper on Spanish BESS revenues? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, can walk you through asset-specific forecasts: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=carmen_izquierdo&utm_content=ko_signup

Chapters:

0:00 - Spain solar prices crashed from €200K to €50K per MW

1:10 - Why the Spain BESS market is misunderstood

2:35 - Spain's 30GW battery storage pipeline explained

3:25 - Inside nTeaser: Spain's renewable energy M&A platform

5:00 - Is the 3.5GW Spain battery forecast for 2030 too low?

7:50 - Spain BESS bottlenecks: bank financing and labour

10:00 - Who is buying Spanish battery projects in 2026

12:50 - Spain vs Italy BESS: the MACSE auction setback

15:00 - Data centres and behind-the-meter co-location in Spain

18:00 - When Spain battery projects become bankable

19:30 - Spain capacity market timing and revenue impact

20:30 - BESS arbitrage cannibalisation and revenue stacking

21:45 - Poland, Romania, and BESS expansion across Europe

23:30 - How nTeaser is changing European renewables M&A

Transmission is a Modo Energy podcast hosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chris Stark is leading the UK's Clean Power 2030 mission. As Head of Mission Control at DESNZ, no one sees the constraint costs, grid bottlenecks and reform of National Pricing trade-offs more clearly.

The UK is building a clean power system at a pace not seen since the 1960s, connecting record volumes of wind and solar while transmission, storage and gas all reshape around them. Constraint costs have hit £1.7 billion, gas is being squeezed off the system, and the government has just rewritten the rules of the wholesale market.

Chris joins Ed Porter to break down what Mission Control is actually delivering, where flexibility and storage fit into the 2030 plan, and what Reformed National Pricing means for investors, generators and consumers.

They cover:

• Why building UK transmission lines takes 8-10 years — and why bringing two projects forward by a year is worth £4bn to consumers.
• Why the UK chose to build the grid and the generation simultaneously, and the risks that creates.
• Why the strategic spatial energy plan is the biggest energy decision coming in the next 12 months and how it sets up a "build it once" network for the future.
• The reform of National Pricing decision, what the wholesale CfD means in practice and how electricity is being de-linked from gas.
• Why flexibility is the "forgotten third child" of the energy transition and how dunkelflaute, long-duration storage and household batteries fit into the 2030s system.
• Chris's contrarian take on carbon pricing - why he thinks the Treasury's decision to remove the Carbon Price Support from gas signals carbon pricing is "coming down the list of things that matters.”

Want to model how Clean Power 2030, REMA and the wholesale CFD reshape GB power prices? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions. Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=chris_stark&utm_content=ko_signup

────────────────────────────

⏱ CHAPTERS

• 00:00 - Introduction
• 01:09 - What everyone gets wrong about Mission Control
• 03:00 - Constraint costs as a UK grid health metric
• 04:30 - Why the £7 billion constraint cost forecast may not land
• 09:18 - The biggest UK transmission build since the 1960s
• 10:36 - Sea Link, Norwich to Tilbury and the £4 billion question
• 15:29 - Building a UK grid ready to double electricity demand by 2050
• 17:59 - From centralised transmission to flexible, dynamic networks
• 21:16 - Reform of National Pricing: why the UK said no to zonal
• 28:48 - Wholesale CfDs and decoupling UK power from gas prices
• 37:13 - Flexibility, batteries and the forgotten third pillar
• 42:16 - Markets versus state intervention in UK energy
• 47:28 - Long duration energy storage and the battery technology race
• 49:35 - Managing the UK gas fleet down to 5% by 2030
• 53:21 - Chris's contrarian view: the end of carbon pricing?
• 55:42 - Closing thoughts

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chris Stark is Head of UK’s Mission for Clean Power, As Head of Mission Control at DESNZ, no one sees the constraint costs, grid bottlenecks and reform of National Pricing trade-offs more clearly.

The UK is building a clean power system at a pace not seen since the 1960s, connecting record volumes of wind and solar while transmission, storage and gas all reshape around them. Constraint costs have hit £1.7 billion, gas is being squeezed off the system, and the government has just rewritten the rules of the wholesale market.

Chris joins Ed Porter to break down what Mission Control is actually delivering, where flexibility and storage fit into the 2030 plan, and what Reformed National Pricing means for investors, generators and consumers.

They cover:

• Why building UK transmission lines takes 8-10 years — and why bringing two projects forward by a year is worth £4bn to consumers.
• Why the UK chose to build the grid and the generation simultaneously, and the risks that creates.
• Why the strategic spatial energy plan is the biggest energy decision coming in the next 12 months and how it sets up a "build it once" network for the future.
• The reform of National Pricing decision, what the wholesale CfD means in practice and how electricity is being de-linked from gas.
• Why flexibility is the "forgotten third child" of the energy transition and how dunkelflaute, long-duration storage and household batteries fit into the 2030s system.
• Chris's contrarian take on carbon pricing - why he thinks the Treasury's decision to remove the Carbon Price Support from gas signals carbon pricing is "coming down the list of things that matters.”

Want to model how Clean Power 2030, REMA and the wholesale CFD reshape GB power prices? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions. Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=chris_stark&utm_content=ko_signup

────────────────────────────

⏱ CHAPTERS

• 00:00 - Introduction
• 01:09 - What everyone gets wrong about Mission Control
• 03:00 - Constraint costs as a UK grid health metric
• 04:30 - Why the £7 billion constraint cost forecast may not land
• 09:18 - The biggest UK transmission build since the 1960s
• 10:36 - Sea Link, Norwich to Tilbury and the £4 billion question
• 15:29 - Building a UK grid ready to double electricity demand by 2050
• 17:59 - From centralised transmission to flexible, dynamic networks
• 21:16 - Reform of National Pricing: why the UK said no to zonal
• 28:48 - Wholesale CfDs and decoupling UK power from gas prices
• 37:13 - Flexibility, batteries and the forgotten third pillar
• 42:16 - Markets versus state intervention in UK energy
• 47:28 - Long duration energy storage and the battery technology race
• 49:35 - Managing the UK gas fleet down to 5% by 2030
• 53:21 - Chris's contrarian view: the end of carbon pricing?
• 55:42 - Closing thoughts

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.