President Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, gave a major speech in Kyiv claiming Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. He argued that if Russia were truly winning, they would already control Kyiv, Odessa, and the Dnipro River. Instead, Russia is advancing only “meters, not miles,” while suffering catastrophic losses — Kellogg claimed over 1 million Russian dead and wounded, likening the scale to World War II. He compared this to past wars, noting that the U.S. left Vietnam after 68,000 deaths and the Soviets left Afghanistan after 12,000, suggesting Russia will eventually grow tired and withdraw too.

Critics of Kellogg’s remarks point out several problems:

His casualty claim of 1.5 million Russians is unverified and likely exaggerated.

His analogy ignores that for Russia, Ukraine is an existential, borderland war, not a distant intervention like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

Russia’s public support for the war remains strong, with Putin’s approval still high, making a voluntary withdrawal unlikely.

He also downplayed Ukrainian casualties and the long-term sustainability of a war of attrition, which may favor Russia due to its larger population and resources.

When asked if Ukraine might suffer the same fate as South Vietnam — collapsing after a negotiated peace — Kellogg dismissed the concern. He insisted Ukraine will survive because of its people’s resilience, citing a viral video of Ukrainians singing their anthem in a subway during an air raid as proof of national spirit.

Overall, Kellogg’s optimistic message — that Russia is losing and Ukraine is secure — is seen as politically reassuring but strategically questionable, given Russia’s determination and capacity to continue fighting.

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