The discussion outlines Russia’s growing military advantage in Ukraine, the West’s lack of effective defenses against certain Russian capabilities, and Moscow’s deterrence posture through systems like the “dead hand.”

Putin frames NATO’s eastward expansion—particularly treating Ukraine as a de facto member since the late 1990s—as the root cause of the conflict, citing NATO training, military exercises, and the use of Ukrainian bases as evidence.

On the Western side, there’s political friction: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, once a strong Trump supporter, now doubts Trump’s ability to rein in Europe or change Ukraine policy, suggesting Western leaders can manipulate Trump while he remains focused mainly on financial deals.

Trump’s actions, including accelerating a decision deadline and surrounding himself with hawkish advisers, are seen as hardening Kremlin positions, reducing diplomatic options, and potentially pushing the war toward a more dangerous phase.

On the battlefield, Russia is advancing in key areas, tightening control over supply routes, and inflicting heavy Ukrainian casualties—reportedly matching Russian figures—alongside severe desertion rates.

Analysts warn that logistical pressure, psychological fatigue among long-serving troops, and Russia’s deliberate targeting of supply lines could cause Ukraine’s military to collapse within months.

If this happens, it could lead to a decisive Russian victory and terms of surrender, undermining NATO’s credibility and possibly threatening its survival, while risking further escalation—especially if the UK or others launch attacks on Russian assets.

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