On Tuesday, President Donald Trump issued a direct promise to use “heavy force” on protesters who dare show up to his military parade this weekend. He made no distinction between peaceful and violent protesters, an extraordinary threat of violence that he didn’t bother disguising. Trump has also repeatedly erupted in anger at California Governor Gavin Newsom, ripping him with vile slurs and telling dimwitted lies about his administration’s decision to deploy federal troops in the Golden State. All this comes as a new YouGov poll finds that only small minorities approve of his deployment of the National Guard and the Marines to Los Angeles, a striking rebuke given that Trump is staking so much on this battle. We talked to data analyst G. Elliott Morris, author of the Strength in Numbers Substack, who explains why threats of authoritarian violence are not necessarily good politics for Trump—and why the media keeps credulously pretending otherwise.

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