This week on Macro Mondays, the team breaks down a packed week in global markets - from Trump’s new trade deal with China and growing military tension in Venezuela, to the Fed’s pivot away from quantitative tightening amid record US debt. James Todd, Will Cunliffe,and Spyridon Kokas explore whether the AI boom led by OpenAI and NVIDIA is turning into a bubble, why Buffett’s $380B cash pile signals caution, and how Europe’s stagnation and rising oil volatility could shape markets ahead. Plus, they dive into gold’s $4,000 floor, the S&P’s shaky rally, and what traders should watch as recession risks resurface.

Key highlights include:

✅ US-China agree on new trade deal

✅ Trump to attack Venezuela?

✅ Fed to restart QE while US debt rises at record pace

✅ Euro Area struggles 

✅ S&P trends higher thanks to AI, but elsewhere stocks struggle

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday - US, EA, UK, India and Canada Manufacturing PMI

📅 Tuesday –  Japan Manufacturing PMI, France Budget Balance

📅 Wednesday – US, EA, UK and Canada Services PMI, France Industrial Production

📅 Thursday –  BoE Rate Decision, EA retail sales, Japan and India Services PMI, EA Construction PMI

📅 Friday –   China, Germany and France Trade data, US Michigan data, Japan household spending PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 3rd of November, 2025 at 12:30PM BST.

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